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Going up or going down?

sh82

Yearling
No, I've never heard of him until I came here.
I do come and go on here, my wife and I have grandchildren putting demands on our time, I'm only "allowed" a certain amount of time devoted to horses. 😇
I came here for free time when I'm stuck indoors, as it's not so easy to get out and about these days. I used to have interesting times trying to solve the VDW puzzle. Nothing more.

A bit harsh to single me out as a friend of the guy who everyone seems to think little of because I posted a loser and didn't come back on for a while. I don't completely understand the logic in that.

To reiterate. I have no secret information. I don't claim to know all the VDW "codes". I don't know anything I'm not saying.
I think I know a bit about VDW type stuff, and I happen to know someone who used to post a lot on forums and I regret even mentioning that now. I was only trying to give a bit of background.

I originally hoped there'd be some discussion here about the "figures" in things like the Erin, and the 1-1-1 posts, but I quickly realised that past races aren't the "thing" here. So I was trying to get the feel of the place.
My betting is full of genius moments (well, maybe not genius) and dumb errors of backing horses even when it's clear so much is against it.
I enjoy the working out more anyway.
 

Chesham

Sire
Hi S sh82

There are plenty of VDW threads and posts, including Golden Years , PK, Two Method Of Rating, Second Numerical Picture and Pegwell Bay Races.

Yes it is better if you apply whatever your take is on VDW with Pre Race Examples as the OLD VDW races have been done over and over again. Seeing as G HAll and GR Lincoln from the RF Update Forum were VDW writing in to praise himself, it is best to take his example races as backfitted to suit. The idea of Class, Form, consistency (Consistency of form may be hidden) and ability To handle going, distance and course are still very relevant today, so nothing wrong with the Ideas tht VDW put forward, just his integrity having claimed to have been part of the Free Dutch boys during the war and recovering in a U.K. Hospital for his injuries sust during the war as he was too young to have fought in the war and was still a School Boy during those years.

You could check out Lees Bets (His take on VDW ) as these have been analysed and most were posted Pre race by Lee, Byron is a good example of Consistency being not as straight forward as adding up the form figures to find consistency. See Winner in a Race

Also see VDW - Systematic Betting
 
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sh82

Yearling
I will have a look at the links Chesham Chesham thanks.
I totally understand the logic of what you say and have no problem staying within the rules/guidelines.
 

Chesham

Sire
I will have a look at the links Chesham Chesham thanks.
I totally understand the logic of what you say and have no problem staying within the rules/guidelines.


I think the original questions that got the whole thing started was the disagreements that the Hotform and Win Brighton had in the pages of The Handicap Book Forum

VDW came along and a bigger dick in reality a fantasist Who,had to,write in as G Hall , praising himself (VDW) that he had found the Key, prior to that letter from G Hall , all interest had long waned. Later under GR LIncoln. Again wrote in to praise himself (VDW)

After that the gurus appeared and congregated on Gummy, mostly never ever posting a single pre race selection.

I came across a few of them on different forums, still pretending, in fact one could have produced university papers on the subject of VDW, but had little understanding about the real world of horse racing, the change in Training methods, the change in There not being so many store horses when it comes to NH Racing for instance.

It was easy to spot the VDW Bullshitters as they came unstuck with anyone who knew more than they did about the various aspects of horse racing.

so you don’t need to know anything about VDW , but the questions that Win Brighton posed are relevant

Might I suggest Hotform that you find the answers to the following

1) How can you tell the class horse
2) When is it at its peak
3) How many horses are worth considering in a race
4) Can you tell when a horse is poised
Answer them and you are a long way ahead of the field Win Brighton


There is one other question that Win Brighton missed out and that is The Triners intentions. The Form of the Trainers Runners, is often cyclical . Recently on The Inner Sanctum Blog we have been looking at a new method of measurement that appears to be promising. Also some Trainers will farm races . Others will use a certain race to prepare for a future Race “key Race Form”
 

mick

Sire
Good post Chesham Chesham and i especially liked the final para. Seeking evidence of a Trainers Intention when found can be a boost to confidence, and even in the lower grade contests occasionally you can find a pattern or " happy coincidence " which reinforces the thought that you are thinking as one with the stable. These will not always be easy finds but of course this is often another intention. !
 

Garry

Yearling
Before being sent to the catacombs to study the sacred scrolls S sh82 wrote “I originally hoped there'd be some discussion here about the "figures" in things like the Erin, and the 1-1-1 posts, but I quickly realised that past races aren't the "thing" here.”

It is true that the figures in the Erin have been discussed to death and unless any new evidence appears to explain them then they will forever remain a mystery.

As regards the 1-1-1 posts, I take it sh82 meant the 3-3-3 = 99% and 111 = 33% posts. If so, then the following may prove interesting.

The statistics given by VDW may have been relevant in the past but not so today. Here are just a few figures from the Adrian Massey website for the period 2012 – 2021. Figures rounded to nearest whole %.

Horses that won their last 3 races went on to win 25% of the time. (VDW 33%).

Horses with form fig 114 in their last 3 races went on to win 15% of the time. (VDW 24%).

Horses with form fig 404 in their last 3 races went on to win 10% of the time. (VDW 5%). Here the zero is anything from 5th place and worse.

Horses with form fig 000 in their last 3 races went on to win 5% of the time. (VDW 2%). Here the zero is anything from 7th place and worse.

There were 41 races between 2012 and 2021 with 3 or more horses who had won their last 3 races. These were won by one of these horses on only 23 occasions (56% of races). Admittedly some of these would not have been in the 3 most consistent from the betting forecast. Whether VDW just added up the percentages to obtain his 99%, 98% etc is anyone’s guess. But he would have had to research a minimum of 67 races to obtain 99% with 66 winning. Also the 3-3-3 statistics could have included races with the three horses being just 2-y-o’s each having won their previous solitary race.

Now the figures above for 111, 114, 404, 000 still show it is better to follow the consistent horses. Or is it?

If you look at the win percent table below, you will see it is not the previous form figures that govern a horses’ chance of winning. It is the Starting Price.

SP
111
114
404
000
Less than 1/2
76.5%​
71%​
100%​
none​
1/2 to 10/11
57%​
47%​
43%​
56.5%​
1/1 to 11/8
42%​
43%​
68%​
48%​
6/4 to 15/8
34%​
35%​
35%​
38%​
2/1 to 11/4
28%​
26%​
25%​
27%​
3/1 to 9/2
19%​
17%​
14%​
18.5%​
5/1 to 15/2
12%​
12%​
11.5%​
12%​
8/1 to 10/1
6%​
8%​
9%​
9%​
11/1 to 14/1
4.5%​
11%​
8%​
6.5%​
16/1 to 25/1
2%​
4%​
3%​
4%​
28/1 to 50/1
1.5%​
0%​
1%​
1.5%​
66/1 or more
0%​
0%​
1%​
0.5%​
 

Garry

Yearling
Hi Chesham Chesham,

Your data includes Irish racing. Mine does not. So I have 183 bets with 140 wins at prices less than 1/2 = 76.5%.
Why is the ratings settings named Ability?
This can be very confusing, not to mention misleading, on a VDW Forum.
 

Chesham

Sire
Hi Chesham Chesham,

Your data includes Irish racing. Mine does not. So I have 183 bets with 140 wins at prices less than 1/2 = 76.5%.
Why is the ratings settings named Ability?
This can be very confusing, not to mention misleading, on a VDW Forum.
It’s not a VDW Forum but we do have VDW Threads.

The data is for horses who had form figures 1-1-1 and were also top on Ability Ratings. Plus they were at a starting price 1/2 or less And Forecast Fav (VDW Mentioned Betting Forecast)

I can’t see why it is confusing as far as VDW is concerned. 79% who had form figures 111 and were top on Ability Rating won if going off 1/2 or les . 83% won of if form figures 111 and 2nd on Ability . VDW included the Ability Ratings for quite a few of his examples.

As PK was in a Irish race I thought it would be useful to use Irish data as well. Quite a few VDW followers on this forum back in Irish Races as well as U.K.

If you want the same data as you presented the following is for U.K. racing only and goes back to 2003 and uses no Forecast position just the final SP of 1/2 or less

E02DD1D2-B6AD-4C57-A316-4EDF9CF3A768.jpeg

I think you have limited data tools if using Massey alone

PK won the Irish Champion Hurdle (Was called the Erin)

Horses who have form figures 1-1-1 have a good record at odds less than evens

33C158BE-7475-4BD2-BB59-E4635775FF3A.jpeg3792D120-2986-4F6F-8112-874D3CD90719.jpeg
 
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Chesham

Sire
Hi Chesham Chesham,

Thanks for the explanation. I understand the data now. Tremendous stuff.
Can I ask what is the software you used?
It is called Horse Race Base, quite a few of us on here use the software. There is a link on the Forum ( ArkRoyal ArkRoyal could probably give you the link page on the forum ) for a free 7 day trial and no obligation to continue afterwards. Probably best to wait until Boxing Day or later to take up the offer. There hundreds of different filters that you can apply when researching, Big Race Trends already set up ie The Old Newton Cup and Lancashire Oaks are all set up to drill down into . Also a Ratings Tool where you can experiment with creating your own ratings. I can show you how to set up the Ratings Tool to create Ability Ratings. These can be applied to old races as they would have been before the race was run and of course Rate any race before it is run

Recent Pre race example using Trends to reduce a race to one or two possibles

FF9116BD-47AD-4852-B994-8BD3CE00C0F2.jpeg
 
Last edited:

Leodis

Filly
Hi S sh82

There are plenty of VDW threads and posts, including Golden Years , PK, Two Method Of Rating, Second Numerical Picture and Pegwell Bay Races.

Yes it is better if you apply whatever your take is on VDW with Pre Race Examples as the OLD VDW races have been done over and over again. Seeing as G HAll and GR Lincoln from the RF Update Forum were VDW writing in to praise himself, it is best to take his example races as backfitted to suit. The idea of Class, Form, consistency (Consistency of form may be hidden) and ability To handle going, distance and course are still very relevant today, so nothing wrong with the Ideas tht VDW put forward, just his integrity having claimed to have been part of the Free Dutch boys during the war and recovering in a U.K. Hospital for his injuries sust during the war as he was too young to have fought in the war and was still a School Boy during those years.

You could check out Lees Bets (His take on VDW ) as these have been analysed and most were posted Pre race by Lee, Byron is a good example of Consistency being not as straight forward as adding up the form figures to find consistency. See Winner in a Race

Also see VDW - Systematic Betting
I would recommend reading The Silver Lining (the book)- by far the best of the series, as many times as you see fit. It is easy to see where people, such as Lee (myself included) have developed their M.O. The best stuff is from other writers' contributions IMO
 
Last edited:

Leodis

Filly
A good, study race, yesterday was the 15.20 at Dnc. Many ideas in the Silver Lining book would have lead you to Zambella - the worthy fav/winner and stand out horse in VDW terms.
 

formtheory

Stallion
Hi Leodis Leodis!

Been a great Xmas! Back to work tonight though!

I'm not a fan of heavy ground really but the horse won over C/D in heavy LTO so I'm willing to give him a shot.
 
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