• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
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    Simply enter the coupon code ukbettingform when subscribing here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Inform Racing so help is always available if needed.
    Best Wishes
    AR
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR
  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Going up or going down?

sh82

Yearling
Hello everyone. :)
I first looked in VDW years ago. Myself and a friend spent many an hour poring over form books, he did go on to post quite a lot on VDW forums a good few years ago- I'm not sure but maybe ten or more. He was always more into the Net and techy things than me. I think he got quite deeply involved and shared a lot of the things we worked on, and we carried on using it for a while, with a few tweaks, but I remember him saying that people got a bit tetchy to say the least. :dance:

Anyway, as a "silver surfer" I found this site and wondered how much ideas have progressed on the VDW menu since back in the day.

So just simply looking at the 3.15 today at York. (Oh and anything I say is just from my take on VDW, along with my friend's, and I don't pretend I know how the old feller himself used to work.)

The consistent horses are the same on both pictures it seems to me, and Bangkok is quickly eliminated. Armory and Mohaafeth also get support on the old Prominent King figures.

I would say that Armory wouldn't be totally out of the question as a dropping down in class horse, while Mohaafeth is more of an improver going up. I'm pretty sure temperament would mean backing neither. To be fair neither would be "racing certaintites".

But 9-9 is a lot, isn't it? And William Haggas has had a few pops at this race with older horses being placed so I'd probably think Mohaafeth would win.

I'll be risking 50p anyway.
 

Larry

Mare
I apologise S sh82 I'm not laughing at you I also picked MOHAAFETH by a different method & like the way you wrote it up
best of luck with it
 

sh82

Yearling
I think the thing to be learned is never say, "*****" is quickly eliminated" 😎

There was Bangkok, well fancied on all sets of figures, down in distance, higher ability than Mohaafeth, beaten by better last out. It's obvious now!

I so should have backfitted it.

If you can't have a laugh Larry Larry what can you do!


I really wanted my first post to have a conclusion, as I get a very strong impression members here enjoy selections being offered rather than saying, "No bet".
It's fair enough though, temperament and patience isn't my strong point so I stand by it. 50p I won't see again.
 

mjay

Gelding
I wouldn't be too hard on yourself. As you probably know these small fields over a mile can create misleading results for future analysis.
It was run in a slow time, the horse had failed on all 4 other attempts at group 2. Keep on going!
 

sh82

Yearling
It's always satisfying to be able to go back and see how you messed up though. Or maybe I'm a bit masochistic. :)

I remember my mate and I deciding that Mr VDW may not have always been completely accurate. He wrote about working out this race and that race. Also about spending hours keeping the records, and making lists.
We concluded that you wouldn't really need all the mechanisms, and figures worked out each day if you were also making lists, as one would cover the other.
I suspect VDW converted his methods into a "do it on the day" method to reveal to the readership, as it is a lot more glamourous and appealing than making lists and patiently waiting to make the checks on the day.

I don't want to start an argument about how good VDW ways are at finding winners- I'm told that's been done a lot of times before and the battle grounds still memorialised. But I do think it's the most fun.

First numerical picture, second numerical picture, ability of horse, and of the winner, and the vanquished, class of race, erin numbers (as I was told yesterday they are universally called) with position in betting of winners, finishing position of favourite.

I don't know if all this is something people have an appetite to discuss, or if it's all seen as old hat and dead wood.

"Back in the day" the last three consistency figures had a noticeably better win percentage than they do now.
Conversely the previous placings of the three winners is better now than it was then.
Which I think is interesting?
 

sh82

Yearling
Question, just out of curiosity.
When I post I see this:
"This message is awaiting moderator approval, and is invisible to normal visitors."

I wondered what that was about?
 

dave58

Administrator
Question, just out of curiosity.
When I post I see this:
"This message is awaiting moderator approval, and is invisible to normal visitors."

I wondered what that was about?

Hi S sh82.
It's a security measure we have on here. Basically any new posters have to have their first few posts approved by us before they can be seen by everyone - it's designed to halt any scammers/spammers in their tracks.
Don't worry about it - you'll soon be one of the gang I'm sure!
 

Leodis

Filly
Welcome aboard S sh82 . Personally I think lists are a nightmare to maintain, especially when you return from a long holiday - not for me. If you set the racing post to show form on the card then you can almost spot what would normally have been a list horse on the day, depending on what criteria you use of course. Happy to help with any VDW stuff as long you don't bring up the old races
 
Last edited:

mjay

Gelding
Has anyone a view on Summer's Knight in the 2.15 Yarmouth?

Interesting placing if you consider he just failed in a class 515 race lto. That was on soft ground and the SP indicates the performance was somewhat of a surprise and perhaps should not be taken too literally.

However this is a drop to class 28! and perhaps is a chance to rattle up a typical Prescott sequence?
I'm a little surprised to see over evens is on offer. Is the prize big enough today?
 

formtheory

Stallion
Certainly looks placed to win, moving into a 3 year old plus race and well in on BHA ratings.

As regards to the prize being big enough, his last two wins were only 3k races.
 

formtheory

Stallion
In the Galway 8:15 I'm quite liking the look of Walk on glass at the price.

Shown he's in peak form winning a hurdles race LTO and disqualified for first on his penultimate run.

Now drops in class (prize money)

Won the race last year.
 

mjay

Gelding
In the Galway 8:15 I'm quite liking the look of Walk on glass at the price.

Shown he's in peak form winning a hurdles race LTO and disqualified for first on his penultimate run.

Now drops in class (prize money)

Won the race last year
You're a brave man taking on a 23 runner Irish race - best of luck and I hope he wins for you
 

mjay

Gelding
Two at Goodwood today :

1:50 Sky Defender
2:25 The Acropolis
Best of luck again with these - I thought Katalystic had a chance in the 8.25 at Perth but will not be betting as I feel the ground really needs to be softer. I will be keeping an eye on the weather though as rain is forecast later.
 

sh82

Yearling
I think Summer's Knight form at Haydock is a bit misleading, I don't think I'd trust it as being as good as it seems. But probably good enough.
Along with that, his previous form was in my humble opinion good.

He's 7 higher for his win, but it was for beating Lady Elisia which was, I think, a run worth noting at the time.

I'm getting out another 50p.
 

sh82

Yearling
In the Galway 8:15 I'm quite liking the look of Walk on glass at the price.

Shown he's in peak form winning a hurdles race LTO and disqualified for first on his penultimate run.

Now drops in class (prize money)

Won the race last year.
Scary!!!
 
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