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GAINING AN EDGE - 2 (THE ODDS)

BiyaX

BiyaX

Yearling
Special Situation
THE ODDS

A melancholy thought about playing the races can be stated simply and succinctly. If your opinion is the same as the betting publics, you have no edge, and therefore no bet.

Remember this :
The best bet at the racetrack, every race, every day, is :

A horse having a strong chance to win at attractive odds.
A horse having a strong chance to win at fair to poor odds is less attractive.
A horse having a weak chance to win at attractive odds is least attractive.

Never bet the underlays. It's the first axiom of pari-mutuel wagering.
Two terms are basic :

Underlay An overbet horse
Overlay An underbet horse

As most people know, at the races the handicapper is playing against the crowd, which sets the odds with their wagers. The handicapper's task is to establish a personal betting line which can be compared to the crowd's.

Making a betting line is a skill that develops with experience. It is best done analytically or intuitively, using all the handicapping factors that apply to the race, not mechanically or mathematically, using a few handicapping factors of choice.

When the handicapper decides the crowd has made a mistake, that's an edge, and it's time to play.

If you believe a horse should be 5/2 and the odds are 7/4, that's an underlay, and no play. In the same race, if your 2nd choice is 3/1, and the odds are 5/1, that's an overlay, and an excellent play

The difference is the difference between losing and winning.
 
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Alien said:
:) Time to put your theory into practice then @
BiyaX
BiyaX .

When are you going to post your pre-race selections?
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You can check out this as daily (if any qualifiers)
www.theukbettingforum.co.uk

Special Situations (Track Bias+Odds+Combinations)

Good Draw + Early Speed In Combinations Brighton 14:25 - Dreams Delivered 8/1 Brighton 15:57 - Moveonup 22/1
www.theukbettingforum.co.uk www.theukbettingforum.co.uk
 
Hi BiyaX BiyaX could i ask if the above is your own work or copied from another source. My reason for asking being aspects of it read American to my mind. :)
 
BiyaX BiyaX, I would say that you are preaching to most of the regulars on this site :headbang:. I am a regular but just an old mug punter in reality but I know where it's at, if you can't find odds value aim to improve your strike-rate by being selective - and we know this.
I checked the UK mainland cards and couldn't find much to be enthused about, but I did run the rule over the Newbury 8.25 class 5 10f.

RPR gives everything more or less 7/1 fair odds as to be expected as it's just modification of OR.
I came up with the market expected around 8 a.m. as no's 8 (5/2), 9 (11/4) , 6 (5/1), 5 (7/1) in order of merit. I worked out that the theoretical overround was 120.11% giving fair odds of 8 (10/3), 9 (7/2), 6 (5/1 a possible?), 5 (15/2).
I checked the infineform site as it rates by form not modifying OR and converted to odds 8 (11/2 req), 9 (7/1), 6 (6/1), 5 (13/2 a possible).
Finally I checked the ATR form verdict for an alternative opinion:
ATR form verdict and nothing their except they note 4. Tribute (15/2 RPR fair) (22/1 mkt fair) (15/2 infineform fair) Is it a speculative each-way wager.

Looking at the above; and Im just one of the simpler souls posting on here shows what you are up against in view of you advice :crazy:
 
Jackform said:
@
BiyaX
BiyaX, I would say that you are preaching to most of the regulars on this site :headbang:.
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I do not agree with you. I have a PhD in mathematics and I teach at a university in Cyprus. I am also a professional gambler. I can do without sharing my bets. I'm just sharing my thoughts. I have no intention of preaching. Peace of mind is very important to me. That's why I've been posting on forums for 1 year. I shared the bets I made on a forum last year for a year. Despite proving that I had earned 130,000 sterling, there were those who told me I was "preaching" and I left that forum.
 
Hi BiyaX BiyaX Re your above i feel certain that Jackform Jackform meant no offence via his post. Just to clarify in the UK when we say The Handicapper we are referring to the BHA staff who set the OR, not as per your meaning of a punter attempting to beat the odds. I hope you do not interpret this as myself preaching. !
 
mick mick, you are being kind to me - I think I was being what is known as ironic :( .
BiyaX BiyaX, you were stating the bleeding obvious as far as I am concerned, having been in this game losing money since 1951.
Anyway, my apologies for ruffling your feathers and let's hope you can post some winners for us.
 
mick said:
Hi @
BiyaX
BiyaX Re your above i feel certain that @
Jackform
Jackform meant no offence via his post. Just to clarify in the UK when we say The Handicapper we are referring to the BHA staff who set the OR, not as per your meaning of a punter attempting to beat the odds. I hope you do not interpret this as myself preaching. !
Click to expand...
Anyone who bets on handicap races is a handicapper.

Jackform said:
Anyway, my apologies for ruffling your feathers and let's hope you can post some winners for us.
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A little bit? More than you can imagine.
 
BiyaX said:
I do not agree with you. I have a PhD in mathematics and I teach at a university in Cyprus. I am also a professional gambler. I can do without sharing my bets. I'm just sharing my thoughts. I have no intention of preaching. Peace of mind is very important to me. That's why I've been posting on forums for 1 year. I shared the bets I made on a forum last year for a year. Despite proving that I had earned 130,000 sterling, there were those who told me I was "preaching" and I left that forum.
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Ignore critics - just post pre race and if you want to show your profit and loss numbers
 
Exactly markfinn markfinn .
The proof of the pudding….

I see you had some good price winners already.
I for one would love to see you have a successful run on this forum.
God knows I could do with some winners!
Don’t forget to do a profit/loss running total.

And Jackform Jackform wasn’t preaching to you.
Everyone on here, well most anyway, do there own thing and have done for years.
They know the game inside and out.
He only put into words what most were thinking.
No offence was intended.

Best of luck to you.
 
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Ladies and Gentlemans,
This thread about odds. Personally, I never bet on less than 11/2 priced horses. What about you?
Best Regards.
 
The market dictates what the odds are available - the individual handicapper must decide what value he / she places on the probability of profit if successful - personally speaking to place a “hard” limit on any number that is beyond my control is not something I consider
 
markfinn said:
The market dictates what the odds are available - the individual handicapper must decide what value he / she places on the probability of profit if successful - personally speaking to place a “hard” limit on any number that is beyond my control is not something I consider
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IF you do not agree with market?
 
BiyaX said:
IF you do not agree with market?
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the market plays no part in the handicapping or forming an opinion on selection - " The market is there to serve you ( allow you to bet or not ) - not necessarily to inform you. only 33% of favs win , so there is a lot to play with.
 
markfinn said:
the market plays no part in the handicapping or forming an opinion on selection - " The market is there to serve you ( allow you to bet or not ) - not necessarily to inform you. only 33% of favs win , so there is a lot to play with.
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I have seen many times that the 6/4 horse on my "tissue price" list is offered by bookmakers as 33/1. Believe me, it is an incredible pleasure to collect money from bookies without living in the UK.
 
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