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Football Trading Strategy - BTTS/O2.5/CS

synikal

synikal

Colt
I want to run a live trial of a football trading strategy I have just started using which is showing early promise. The trading is kept to a minimum and each trade uses a stake of £25.

As with all trading strategies game selection and odds matching is key. I am using a few stats based sites to help my research along with my personal intuition (or 'kiss of death!').

The match research is looking for a good statistical probability of over 2.5 goals and the regularity of both teams scoring. I am looking for a double win on the two markets of BTTS (both teams to score) and over 2.5 goals to maximise profits. A 1-1 CS will also allow for an extra bonus.

Trading positions in the different markets are taken at the start of the match.

Moves are only required if the score is 0-0, or 1-0 after 60 minutes.

I am using Betfair only.

Conditional Staking Plan;
I am looking for matches where the price of BTTS and Over 2.5 goals are @1.80 or above. Using a £25 stake I enter the market pre-match with the following stakes:

Stake of £10 Backed on BTTS @1.80+
Stake of £10 Backed on over 2.5 goals @1.80+
Stake of £2 Backed on 0-0
Stake of £3 Backed on 1-1

I will let the trade run to its conclusion unless the score is 0-0 or 1-0 after 60 minutes. If 0-0 I will green up 0-0 and scratch 1-1 taking a hedged red on over 2.5 goals and BTTS.

If 1-0 I will green up 1-1, scratch (or take a small loss on over 2.5 goals) and red BTTS. Any other score line and we have a trading advantage so can let the trade run until 80 minutes where it can be reassessed. I can either exit the trade or stay in with a probable win on either, 1-1, over 2.5 or BTTS and ideally both Over 2.5 goals and BTTS.

Danger!
The danger positions are;
(a) if there is no goal
(b) or if there are two goals to one side.
If needed I can take out insurance to cover half the stake with a lay of over 0.5 goals will protect us from a 0-0 draw.
A small back of 2-0 and 3-0 at 1-0 will minimise the loss of a 2-0 finish.

Results so far are below. Nothing for Sunday (23/12/12) - If you have a suggestion for a different league please join in with the thread - more suggestions cuts down on the research!

Trades

22/12/12

I have let each trade run so far and not had to fiddle with any positions yet. I like the low liability feature of this trade and the options for cutting losses or take a small profit.

3.00 West Ham v Everton HT 1-0 FT 1-2 £8.30 + £10.20 - 5% - £5 = +£12.57

BTTS; 1.83 O2.5; 2.2 0-0; 10.05 1-1; 7.0

Daily P/L; +£12.57 Total P/L; +£60.57

21/12/12

7.45 Bury v Shrewsbury FT 2-2 £8 +£10.08 - 5% - £5 = +£12.18

BTTS; 1.8 O2.5; 2.08 0-0; 11.0 1-1; 7.0 (Early odds BTTS and both CS may both go out)

1-1 after 10 minutes so BTTS landed (HT 1-1) - I'm going out but leaving it to run as no goal gives us the CS win - £10 and another goal gives us the O2.5 win - £5 - another win no matter what for this strategy!

Daily P/L; +£12.18 Total P/L; +£48.00

18/12/12

7.45 Brentford v Bradford FT 1-1 £10 + £28.20 - 5% - £10 - £2 = +£24.29

BTTS; 2.0 O2.5; 1.92 0-0; 14.0 1-1; 9.4

I let this trade run having secured the BTTS bet. If another goal had been scored it would have been £10 - £5 CS insurance. But the 1-1 CS looked good so I took this as a free bet.

Daily P/L; +£24.29 Total P/L; +£35.82


17/12/12

19:15 Braunschweig v Union Berlin; Profit £8.20 + £9.20 - 5% - £5.00 CS insurance = +£11.53

BTTS; 1.82 O2.5; 1.92 0-0; 14.0 1-1; 8.6

2-2 in first half and and both BTTS and O2.5 landed on 32' FT 4-3

Daily P/L; +£11.53 Total P/L; +£11.53
 
26/12/12

Not totally inamoured by the boxing day fixtures but this is the best one to fit the odds and stats - hope I don't regret it!

3.00 Preston v Bury

BTTS; 1.83 O2.5; 2.04 0-0; 13.0 1-1; 7.6

These odds were available last night altough liquidity was limited. Notice this morning that BTTS odds have dropped below the qualifying 1.8 so may have to wait to nearer KO or leave it or use some time delay for the BTTS to qualify. Boxing day commitments for me so I'm going to leave it inplay and check at 3.50pm if I can!
 
Didn't bother checking the score due to the family quiz and rather foolishly let this 'gamble' run its course.
Result;
3.00 Preston v Bury FT 0-0 +£24 - £3 - 5% -£10 -£10 = -£0.05 (Luckily no damage done!)

Daily P/L; -£0.05 Total P/L; +£60.52

Nothing for tomorrow!
 
29/12/12

3.00 MK Dons v Coventry 44' 2-1 +£8+£10.02 - 5% - £5 CS = +£12.12

BTTS; 1.8 O2.5; 2.02 0-0; 12.0 1-1; 7.4

Daily P/L; +£12.12 Total P/L; +£72.64
 
1/1/13

3.00 Doncaster v Sheffield Utd HT 1-0 FT 2-2 +£8+£10.10 - 5% - £5 CS = £12.19

BTTS; 1.8 O2.5; 2.1 0-0; 11.0 1-1; 6.8

Daily P/L; +£12.19 Total P/L; +£84.83
 
2/1/13

I'm going to tinker with the CS insurance here and use 1-0 and 2-0 instead of 0-0 and 1-1. I'm going to wait for the o2.5 to move into accepted parameters of 1.8+

7.45 Liverpool v Sunderland

BTTS; 2.12 O2.5; 1.79 1-0; 9.4 2-0; 7.0

I suppose such tinkering with a systematic strategy is the wrong thing to do so this could be where my luck runs out!
 
7.45 Liverpool v Sunderland HT 2-0 FT 3-0 +£10 - 5% -£10 - £5CS = -£5.50

BTTS; 2.12 O2.5; 1.79* 1-0; 9.4 2-0; 7.0

Daily P/L; -£5.50 Total P/L; +£79.33

I backed the o2.5 @2.0* and gambled on the BTTS rather than trading out. In hindsight I should have backed the 3-0 but I was hoping to lay off the 2-0 at 60' and trad out of the BTTS for a £6 loss - this would have reduced the loss to c. £1.50 or given a profit with the 3-0 CS. But as we all know, 'hindsight is a wonderful thing'. The delay of the O2.5 might be worth considering for other identified games as I have been very strict with this conditonal stake - tinkering again! I like this strategy but I must be more disciplined in trading out and accepting the red!
(Who said Black Cats are good luck!)

If anyone wants to put forward possible selections feel free - I think a bit more flexibility on the o2.5 1.8 odds may be needed.
 
Synikal, id say Curly would be the man to steer you in the right direction. He knows all the pros and cons of stuff like this!
 
5/1/13

Cardiff are playing a weakened side (first team left at home) as they felt they missed out on promotion last season due to too many games. So worth a punt here. I'm going to wait for the overs to improve inplay and reduce stake on 0-0.

3.00 Macclesfield Town v Cardiff City FA Cup

BTTS; 1.84 O2.5; 1.82 0-0; 15 1-1; 8.4

There is a problem with liquidity for this game so not the best for trading!

A better selection for liquidity;

3.00 Levente vAth Bilboa

BTTS; 1.81 O2.5; 2.18 0-0; 11 1-1; 7.4
 
Despite the poor liquidity of the Macc game I had already commited to this trade and I backed the O2.5@ 2.0 inplay. At HT the Levente trade was already successful so the punter in me let the Macclesfield trade run - this is not to be recommended as not only was I basing my decision on emotional factors (hometown) but I was purely gambling and not trading - another bad example for which I expected to pay! But this is a 'funny old game' and the 'black cat' I bemoaned for the last trade paid me back - almost for a 1-1 special!

3.00 Macclesfield Town v Cardiff City FA Cup HT 0-0 FT 2-1 £8.40 + £10 - 5% - £4.50 CS = +£12.98

3.00 Levente vAth Bilboa HT 2-1 £8.10 + £10.18 - 5% - £5 CS = +£12.37

Daily P/L; +£25.35 Total P/L; +£104.68

:happy-wavemulticolor:
 
Hi Synikal,


Temperament and discipline are the most difficult aspects for the gambler turned trader to overcome.
You know what you should do but just can't help yourself :confusion-shrug:
 
Off to Spain for two evenly matched teams - not the best scoring records but have improved lately.

7.00pm Rayo Vallecano v Getafe :violence-duel:

BTTS; 1.88 O2.5; 2.14 0-0;11.0 1-1; 7.6
 
Hi Synikal

First time that I have tried this tonight, which usually means it will be cursed......more than happy with the result !!!

Thank you
 
Result;

7.00pm Rayo Vallecano v Getafe HT 2-0 66' 3-1 FT 3-1; £8.80 + £10.14 - 5% - £5 = +£12.99

Another positive result for the strategy which builds up the bank for future trades providing a good cushion for when the scoreline is less friendly!

Daily P/L; +£12.99 Total P/L; +£117.57

Cheers Monsal - I'm expecting the curse to come along soon so need to maintain discipline as per the rules in order to minimise losses and develop my traders mindset - But losses will be small if I don't gamble when the scoreline is negative.
 
12/1/13

After a paucity of suitable games with the correct odds I have a qualifier for Saturday;

Bournemouth v Swindon

BTTS; 1.84 O2.5; 2.14 0-0; 11 1-1; 7.6 (Get on early as I think the Overs and BTTS will come in)
 
Result

Bournemouth v Swindon HT 1-0 26' FT 1-1 85'

If I would have traded this I would have lost part of the stake using the 80' rule. Fortunately or unfortunately I traded out of the game in the morning due to a university return trip (too much luggage) and a lack of a mobile facility! If anyone did this and let it run (gamble!) they would have been rewarded with a double on the BTTS and 1-1!
Will not add this to P/L total but if following the strict rules it would have been a loss! :eek:bscene-tolietclaw:
 
Result

An injury time North End consolation goal saves the loss of a fiver and presents a winning bet!

Preston v Walsall HT 0-2; 0-3 56'; FT 1-3

BTTS; 1.84 O2.5; 2.02 0-0; 11.5 1-1; 7.4 £8.40 + £10.20 - 5% - £5 CS insurance = +£12.67

Daily P/L; +£12.67 Total P/L; +£130.24 :happy-jumpgreen:
 
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