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Flat 2018

Typical Monday fare, but I like the chance of Maureb in the 3.35 Catterick. She knows how to win and looks to be in decent form since her return with two good placed efforts including a 2nd, beaten 1/2l on Saturday. She has run well here before and 7f looks to be her optimum trip.

3.35 Maureb 5/2 PP

Before that, in the 3.25 Wolves, Eyecatcher qualifies for a handicap after 3 unplaced efforts as a 2YO including when beaten just 7 lengths behind Roaring Lion form that looks more than good enough to take this class 5 especially as he has been gelded since.

3.25 Eyecatcher 11/2 Coral
4.40 Neverbeen To Paris 4/1 looks to have enough scope to take this after three decent runs in its juvenile season. Stable in good form - running at 25% right now - and Danny Tudhope has a good record for the stable.
Good racing at York today, but I find it an impossible task to find winners there. Instead I am going to Yarmouth 3.55. "The Sign Of Excellence" handicap is actually a pretty bad race with a lot of long term maidens and infrequent winners. Nevertheless, I think Orobas, who finally got his head home in front a couple of starts ago on the AW and has a couple of decent runs on turf is a touch of value at 15/2. Neither the jockey not the trainer inspire much confidence however and I am being prudent in backing EW.

3.55 Orobas 15/2 1pt EW
I am taking a bit of a punt today on two horses with long absences to overcome:

4.35 York, Main Desire 13/2 Unbeaten in two including over course and distance but off the track for a year with an injury. If fully wound up there is a lot of juice in her price. The fact that the stable are going for this relatively tough listed contest rather than something more low key suggests they have her fit enough to do herself justice.

6.00 Salisbury, Executor 15/1 with Ladbrokes boost 1pt EW. Almost everything is wrong with this bet: off the course for almost two years, running over a distance it hasn't tried before, ridden by an apprentice having his first ride in public! On the plus side, it has dropped 10lb since its initial assessment; as a possible leader, this might just be an ideal ride for an inexperienced rider and Roger Charlton has a good course record and uses claimers shrewdly. At the price it is worth the punt.
3.05 Lady Valdean 17/2 A quick turnaround following a facile victory from the front. Filly in form.
3.40 Nordic Passage 11/8 One run, one win, obvious chance for a stable in excellent form.
Two points lost the other day and I'll update after today's bet:

3.15 Naas, Izzer 12/1 1pt EW. Two runs, two wins for Mick Channon's 2yo albeit on very different ground. He has an O'Brien hotpot to contend with but if he handles the ground has a good chance of doing so. 12/1 is simply too big to ignore and Channon has a good record with his exploits with 2yos on Irish soil.
5.45 Ayr Luv U Whatever 11/1. An amateur contest and as always in these contests a decent rider is essential and today's pilot meets that criterion having a 15% strike rate over the past year including four wins's for today's trainer.
7.20 Sligo, Stormy Tale 5/2. Seemed to improve on return with a big step up to 10f having been running over 6/7f last season. It seems an odd move then to drop her back to this 7f trip, but I'm hoping the stable know best and that she can build on that and find the extra necessary to record her first win tonight.
Two winners today: Luv U Whatever subject to a 5% Rule 4 returned a profit of 10.45pts and Stormy Tale returned an SP of 4/1 so a total profit on the day of 14.45pts:


6/23 W/R
Three recent winners looking to follow up today and appear to have obvious chances of doing so:

3.35 Helovaplan 21/10 with boost. I am expecting it to confirm placings with Club Wexford from the other day although it ought to be tighter between them.
4.05 Tanasoq 5/2
5.40 John Honeyman 7/4

Also a 1 pt win treble on the above but with 11/8 about Helovaplan (21/10 single taken late night with Ladbrokes)
Tanasoq, which was the one I thought weakest. turned out to be the only winner and subject to a rule 4 paid 9/4 so a loss of 0.75pt on the day. John Honey man was the most frustrating being beaten by the 50/1 rag when it looked to be in command entering the last.


7/26 (27%)
1.40 Kayser 33/20 (with boost) De Sousa riding for Bin Suroor.
2.00 Love Dreams 3/1
4.20 Bayshore Freeway 11/4
3.45 Last Enchantment 0.5 EW @ 15/1 (with boost)
6.35 Konchek 6/1 A bit wayward on Newmarket debut but still won and will have learned from that. Could have been drawn better but 6/1 is value.
Just one winner at 3/1. Koncheck missed a beat at the start and was wide throughout a touch unlucky in 3rd and goes into my notebook. A point lost on the day:


8/31 (26%)
A lot of interesting racing today and a lot of potential pitfalls. I started with a list of six or seven bets all of which except one I have discarded because of the highly competitive races combined with borderline value they offer. The one exception is Flindt in the 8.25 Leopardstown who landed a bit of a touch the other day (8/1 into 9/2) and has plenty going for it in a bid to follow up. Still relatively unexposed after just six starts the first five of which he was sent off at big prices and ran accordingly. They obviously feel they have him fully tuned now and the quick turnaround looks a smart move. Plenty of dangers from the likes of Raven's Pass and Machiavelli, but now that Flindt has got his head in front I expect him to improve further and he is a confident choice.

8.25 Flindt 18/5 (with Ladbrokes boost)
Totally gobsmacked by today's poor run and my best decision was to avoid the rest of today's racing when my losses would have been considerably more.

Another difficult looking day and I am having just two speculative bets.

2.20 Chester, I'll take a chance on Shania Says 16/1 1pt EW. On the best of her 2yo form she would be among the market leaders. Not shown that this term and is not well drawn. However, that is reflected in her price and Ian Williams has booked top Chester Jockey Franny Norton for the ride today and after two runs for her new stable this season I am hoping she is ready to do herself justice now.

5.30 Goodwood, Hesterya. Just two runs in maidens to her name those runs came at Newbury and last time at Newmarket where she improved on debut and Sky's 25/1 is surely way too big and therefore worth taking at 1pt EW.