• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Fifty points profit per month

17 runners - 1 non-runner - 4 winners

Mokaman 3/1 ( bfsp 4.5 )
Sea Breezing 5/1 ( bfsp 7.8 )
Ginger Jam 11/4 ( bfsp 4.26 )
Mystify Me 7/2 ( bfsp 4.1)....................rare to see BFSP odds lower than ISP

-13, +3.43, +6.66, +3.19, +3.04
= +3.32 pts

Previous -7.12 pts
Overall total -3.80 pts
.
 
Hi Arrocuda Arrocuda Appreciate your comments on the NH race and Capture The Action.
Didn't end up to bad from the two selections in a 13 runner hurdle race.......2nd at 28/1 & 4th at 16/1......beating the odds is what I like to see....shows promise hopefully.
 
Thanks. I need all the points I can get.
I like dutching......it's my way of doing 'each ways' ( of which I am not a fan ).
 
retriever said:
I like dutching......it's my way of doing 'each ways' ( of which I am not a fan ).
Click to expand...

See, i'm the opposite.

With an each way you don't have "dead money" in a race.
If you back two to win, one of your bets has already lost.
I can't get my head round that.

There used to be a guy on here a few years ago now that would back two in handicap races, he got some great results from it. Can't remember the guys name now else i'd go look up one of his threads ... any of the old-timers remember who i'm talking about ? I want to say Tony .. but I have no idea where I pulled that name from ??

It seems to work for you, and I do like that there are so many different angles into races. If we all did it the same way, the game would be very boring. Still watching with interest. I like your approach.
 
pete said:
See, i'm the opposite.

With an each way you don't have "dead money" in a race.
If you back two to win, one of your bets has already lost.
I can't get my head round that.

There used to be a guy on here a few years ago now that would back two in handicap races, he got some great results from it. Can't remember the guys name now else i'd go look up one of his threads ... any of the old-timers remember who i'm talking about ? I want to say Tony .. but I have no idea where I pulled that name from ??

It seems to work for you, and I do like that there are so many different angles into races. If we all did it the same way, the game would be very boring. Still watching with interest. I like your approach.
Click to expand...
Pete Think that I might have been me - love a dutch bet - best ever
 
markfinn said:
Pete Think that I might have been me - love a dutch bet - best ever
Click to expand...

nope, not you. Will have a dig around. He seemed to always be like second and third fav in handicap races.
I asked about him a while ago elsewhere and got an answer, and then forgot the name again.
I'm gettin' too old for this 'memberin' stuff.
 
The traditional place part of an each way bet with bookmakers, I believe, is such poor value at mostly 1/5 the odds that it doesn't warrant being bet that way. I always think that either horses are going to win, or drop off out of the places, to enhance race future odds. A horse out of the places is two bets lost - it's just the reverse of what you are saying. The exchange place betting, on it's own, can get much nearer the true odds....that's ok.

If you can get the best odds you can about two horses in the race then the extra SP will out-do any place returns I feel. I did read a study a long time ago into this but cannot remember who by. ( I seem to recall Clive Holt touching upon it.......not sure ).

Of course, it doesn't help not having access to bookie prices, and so I have to make do with the enhanced odds of Betfair outsiders when they go in.
 
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retriever said:
I always think that either horses are going to win, or drop off out of the places,

If you can get the best odds you can about two horses in the race then the extra SP will out-do any place returns I feel. I did read a study a long time ago into this but cannot remember who by. ( I seem to recall Clive Holt touching upon it.......not sure ).
Click to expand...

You are probably correct with the above, it's just one of those in-built alarms I have in my head.
Its like Laying ... I cannot get my head around betting on a horse to lose, my mind does not work that way.
I think there can be value in the extended place betting that some firms offer in the bigger handicaps. 6 and 7 places at a fifth the odds seems fair, but I'm with you, I tend to think the ones I pick will either win in a canter, or drop out and be no-shows.
It seems rare that I collect on the place part of a bet.
 
I get annoyed when I see see someone write 10/3 instead of 100/30.....lol

Yes, all those 'pinch a bit more' values from the bookmakers ( is it ? ) of 5th values.....12/5, 13/5, 14/5, 16/5 etc...
That's where you have to be careful with the HRB SP data values.
Data shows 5/2 ( 2.5 ) where as the bookie paid out 12/5 ( 2.4 )....big difference.

HK Happy Valley odds are done to units of 10 so you get returns such as 87/20, 73/10, 462/100.........:eek:
I guess that's where we are heading eventually.
 
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I read some where, either RP or maybe ATR website that these new odds have been brought in by the bookies so as they can be more competitive with the exchanges but I wouldn't believe a bookie if he told me today was a Saturday.
 
Short on time this morning...

5th May.....

5th June.png


EDIT: adding in the race types.

1.40 Muss.............2yo Non-handicap
3.45 Epsom..........3yo+ Handicap
4.15 Donc.............3yo+ Non-handicap ( Novice )
4.55 Muss.............4yo+ Handicap
6.00 Chep.............4yo+ Handicap
6.30 Chep.............4yo+ Handicap
7.00 Chep.............2yo Non-handicap ( Novice )
.
 
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retriever said:
The traditional place part of an each way bet with bookmakers, I believe, is such poor value at mostly 1/5 the odds that it doesn't warrant being bet that way. I always think that either horses are going to win, or drop off out of the places, to enhance race future odds.
Click to expand...

I remember a while ago someone here trying a strategy based on this idea.
The thinking was that he had noticed that with certain trainers their horses either won or came nowhere (presumably for the reasons that you have already explained)

Once the chap had found a live contender he would put a win bet on the horse and cover his stake with a lay bet in the place market.
 
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