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Fifty points profit per month

This month is looking to be the busiest time of the year for my race type selections ( 5f - 5½f ).
Nine races to start the project off today with a maximum of 18 points in the balance bar non-runners.
There is a wide variety of prices in the mix today.
I am reminded of something that pete pete says.....that it just takes one or two occasional big price winners to move us forward, while the remainder, hopefully, keep us on an even keel.
Once again I have no idea where this is going but it's main purpose is to help me focus and sometimes it's the side-line spots that make a difference.
This method entails a general appreciation of a horses ability over the minimum distance, combined with trainer statistics, and if I really get stuck, resort to pedigree stats. Covering horses of all ages adds variety and an ongoing foundation.


1st June.png


I note the general race types for my ongoing analysis of my stronger or weaker picks.

1.25 Leic...........2yo Non-Handicap ( Novice )
3.30 Redc.........3yo+ Handicap
4.25 Brig...........4yo+ Handicap
5.40 Tipp..........2yo Non-Handicap
6.00 Yarm.........2yo Non-Handicap ( Restricted Novice )
6.10 Tipp..........3yo+ Non-Handicap ( Maiden )
6.30 Yarm..........3yo+ Non-Handicap ( Maiden )
6.40 Tipp...........3yo+ Handicap
6.50 Ling...........3yo+ Handicap

Minimum distance races may sometimes seem like a minefield but I think they are the most genuine race type.
There's no real room for 'jockey tactics', for example. They either bolt for the line or get left behind. Simples! :)
.
 

markfinn

Sire
Minimum distance races may sometimes seem like a minefield but I think they are the most genuine race type.
There's no real room for 'jockey tactics', for example. They either bolt for the line or get left behind. Simples! :)
Morning - you will probably have this but if not ! - Top 3 in the weights all classes - 2017 - 2020 June - July - August
 

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OnTheNod

Gelding
I think the weight range can be important as well, plus the running position and of course the jockey, but still see how you go, also i use around 5/1 minimum price on odd occasions 4/1 if faIr form to cover the chance element which exists.

But dont tinker see how things pan out, maybe note certain elements down to get a clearer graph of the events.

Good Luck!! BTW!
 
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mick

Sire
Plenty of my bets are in the sprint races and i suspect this may be down to my ratings because these races lend themselves to more occasions of what i call positive hidden form. Older members may recall Terry Ramsden who said he preferred the flat as it offered a quicker death and a 5 fur contest certainly provides the ultimate in this respect.

I would claim the record for this as i once lumped on one in a 5 fur Hcap at Ling who unseated his rider when the traps opened, but i am not going to talk about that. :eek:
 

OnTheNod

Gelding
For some reason Lingfield and Epsom were never good tracks for me with sprints places ok, but never wins a think just a couple of wins at Lingfield, i think more horses get left at the start today and seem more unruly.

I think Terry Ramsden was a bit unstable though if i remember right he ended up with mental problems through gambling after having a good run of wins.
 
Thanks markfinn markfinn No, I hadn't seen that.
It may be handy to have such broken down into race types, ie. to distinguish between 3yo races and 3yo+ races but I guess that makes the sample sizes a lot smaller.

The problem with weight, or the bare statistics of, say, the top 3 in the weights, is that it's not showing us the horses position within it ability to carry it's allotted weight.

Thanks for good luck wishes OnTheNod OnTheNod I'm actually feeling nervous for the outcome. The sheer number of bets ( and work ) has overwhelmed me a little. But, in for a penny...

Unless there is an obvious outliner in the odds I like to totally disregard the market with regards to the odds. I think punters can read to much into the market and let their bets be wrongly affected by the movements, which of course, is only opinions, based generally upon 'form'. Hidden ability due to 'bad luck LTO or previous' as mick mick says is not always picked up by the market. That and those of a 'fast turn of foot' are ones I like to pay attention to.
 
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OnTheNod

Gelding
As you say retriever retriever you want to try and balance your loses with wins at the shorter prices, i use to do this ew with 4/1 up prices but it no longer works now, plus i never had many bets around 50 from May till the end of September, it may work ok if your method is sound, but if not it could be no better than using value prices and riding the losing runs that way.

Still! time will tell i suppose.
 
OnTheNod OnTheNod Value prices means having access to bookmaking accounts - no longer an option. Anyway, I'm done with the 'tarts'. A high strike rate is now my only avenue.

Incidentally, I have been looking at another minimum distance area, namely 2m ( plus or minus 0.5f ) Handicap Hurdles. Anyone using the HRB race tabs yesterday probably would probably not have failed to pick up on three horses - two of which came 1st and 2nd - both at 12/1 !! Something I'm going to watch and possibly implement come the end of the flat season alongside the AW 5f selections.
 

OnTheNod

Gelding
OnTheNod OnTheNod Value prices means having access to bookmaking accounts - no longer an option. Anyway, I'm done with the 'tarts'. A high strike rate is now my only avenue.

Incidentally, I have been looking at another minimum distance area, namely 2m ( plus or minus 0.5f ) Handicap Hurdles. Anyone using the HRB race tabs yesterday probably would probably not have failed to pick up on three horses - two of which came 1st and 2nd - both at 12/1 !! Something I'm going to watch and possibly implement come the end of the flat season alongside the AW 5f selections.

I think one gets more value on the exchange i got 12/1 on 13/2 shot this morning as i said i hope it works well for you.
 
I never seem to get good early prices on the exchange against the eventual BFSP. The exchange market can be very poor, early on, in a lot of the races, unless it's a competitive handicap.
It's not like it was in the 'old days' :) when the exchange had more money and players in it.
 

OnTheNod

Gelding
I never seem to get good early prices on the exchange against the eventual BFSP. The exchange market can be very poor, early on, in a lot of the races, unless it's a competitive handicap.
It's not like it was in the 'old days' :) when the exchange had more money and players in it.

Well i just use the BMs prices as a guide and the general form, i mostly use bfsp if i suspect they are not going to be backed, i like yourself am starting small and hope to build up on a 400 pt bank if that goes then i am out for good.
 
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markfinn

Sire
It may be handy to have such broken down into race types, ie. to distinguish between 3yo races and 3yo+ races but I guess that makes the sample sizes a lot smaller.
Yes but I wasnt sure of what you already "had" and did not want to appear to be condescending

the top 3 weights are a just a guide to what ought be winning all things being equal of course each race can be profiled individually - not sure I can Isolate three year old only races - that is a problem I have encountered before and of course it skews the age stats. Arrocuda Arrocuda might be able to help as he has proform.
 

Arrocuda

Colt
On Proform you just set the minimum and maximum age's of the runners and it filters out the races accordingly. So for example for 3 year olds only races I just put a 3 in both the min' and the max' boxes. If I wanted to look at races for 3 and four year olds only I'd put a 3 in the min' and a 4 in the max'.
 

markfinn

Sire
On Proform you just set the minimum and maximum age's of the runners and it filters out the races accordingly. So for example for 3 year olds only races I just put a 3 in both the min' and the max' boxes. If I wanted to look at races for 3 and four year olds only I'd put a 3 in the min' and a 4 in the max'.
Obv............ Dooh - Thanks
 

markfinn

Sire
On Proform you just set the minimum and maximum age's of the runners and it filters out the races accordingly. So for example for 3 year olds only races I just put a 3 in both the min' and the max' boxes. If I wanted to look at races for 3 and four year olds only I'd put a 3 in the min' and a 4 in the max'.
So how would you exclude 3yr only races when running reports or systems for 3 yr old plus handicaps that what I was having trouble with
 

Arrocuda

Colt
You just select 'race' off the menu and look thru' the options and toward the bottom of the list there are two boxes one labelled 'Min' Age Limit' and the other 'Max' Age Limit'. This is where you enter the values depending upon the race conditions you are interested in. You can also specify age by selecting 'Horse' off the menu but that won't filter out the races only the horses running in them. So for 3 year old races only you put a 3 in both boxes.
 
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Arrocuda

Colt
If you don't want 3 year olds only races you just enter a 3 in the minimum and a 12 in the maximum box. This will give you 3 y o+ races without 3 y o only races included.
 
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