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Fast / slow races

W

Weichsel

Hello, I am new in this forum and I have not read most of the threads, so Sorry if my questions were already answered. I am from Germany and I do Speed Figures for the German race tracks only. I strictly use the method of the Nick Mordin books.

I frequently have races where the time is far to fast or far to slow. I have not yet understand how to forecast, if a race will probably be (very) slow or (very) fast. I think that could be helpful, as it is said that Swoopers (Closers) prefer fast races and Frontrunners rather like their own (slow) tempo.

Do you have experience in forecasting slow or quick races?
Or do you have any ideas about this subject at all?


Thanks for your help!!
 
although I am no expert , it seems small fields on the flat and AW can become tactical and often favour frontrunners. competitive races with good sized fields are often run at a good pace and if there is 2 or more frontrunners in the line up they can go too fast and maybe favour a closer. there are some sites which now try to predict the pace or you can look up the running styles of a horse in the Racing Post and deduce its favoured running style that way. however, it is far from an exact science !!
 
Thanks for your help!

I think the comment about the field size is a good advise.
Unfortunatley the British pace charts won’t help me as I am concentrated on the German races...

I have records about all the running styles of all horses, but I cannot figure out how that could help me to forecast, if a race will be fast or slow.
I thought, if there will be several frontrunners / chasers, it should be a fast race and if there are no frontrunners it might be a slow race. But my experience is that this thoughts are not true in reality. So far I have not found any patterns to forecast the pace, even though I should have the information to do it.

May you have any further ideas?
 
@Weichsel Hello!! I to used to suffer from this problem. Watching the last 5 replays for each runner in the race and looking deeper in to older races can help to form a image in my minds eye of how they might run. But i now just accept that if the pace for the race could go either way then I would tend to avoid that race. May I ask what is the end objective you wish to gain from predicting the pace?
 
W Weichsel hi. Can you buy German form books with official ratings and standard times so that you can compare with your own ratings. I do not know about German racing but in the UK most races are run slower then the standard times, so it would be easy to say tomorrow most races if not all will be run slowly. A easier way may be if you are able to access form comments for German races you can then at least predict which horses should lead, be held up etc etc. In the UK tactics can suddenly change so you have to be careful. Also if more than one front runner is drawn side by side the early pace can be a lot quicker than if the front runners were not drawn side by side, which could lead to a early collapse of the pace leaving the race to be won by a hold up horse in a very slow time.

Arkle
 
Thanks for all the comments!

No, we don’t have sectional times in Germany. And we do not have standard times as well.
But I have made my own standard times for all German tracks with the Nick Mordin method. I also use his standard times for comparison which are said to be international.
I also have records for every horse in every race about its position in the race (front, chase, end etc).
(I must mention that races in Germany are normally run only on the weekend)

‘May I ask what is the end objective you wish to gain from predicting the pace?’

I noticed that most races are run in ‘normal’ times, but consistently there are races that are run very fast or very slow. So if I could predict a very fast race, it might be possible to find a ‘hold up horse' for a good bet. (or the other way around).

‘Also if more than one front runner is drawn side by side the early pace can be a lot quicker than if the front runners were not drawn side by side, which could lead to a early collapse of the pace leaving the race to be won by a ‘hold up horse (closer)’ in a very slow time.’

I think that is an interesting comment, thank you!
But I do not understand the second part of it. If the pace collapses early, shouldn't that be bad for ‘hold up horses (closer)’?
 
basically if the front 2 or more horses take each other on they go too fast and in the final furlong slow down which gives the illusion that the closing runners are running fast to overtake them, when in effect they are not really , its just the initial strong pace has slowed down and the closers pass them because they have been running at an even , constant speed. the final time would generally be slow because of this .it can sometimes be dangerous to bet fast finishers next time because of this . sectional timing would show this up well.
 
I think to regally predict weather a race will be run fast or not would take as much work as finding the winner. With out the use of sectionals this would not be possible with out the extensive application of subjective handicapping. And this would not be economically viable.
 
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