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Erin Question

Annoying start to the day. Top rated wins at 17/2 with 2nd rated in 3rd (given a negative ride compared to last time).
Damn.
 
I noted last night how poor the strike rate of top rated runners on the tables were yesterday.

I only backed one of these from the last 4 races.

Screenshot 2025-09-08 at 15.38.28.png
 
seathestars said:
I have nothing worthwhile to say sorry
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Sad really, if we all did the same there would be nothing worthwhile for you to read. Can’t see the point in registering for a Forum if you are not going to join in.

You are only seeing a very small part of the open forum , much more when you can access the Inner Sanctum part of the Forum and the various Blogs
 
seathestars said:
I have nothing worthwhile to say sorry
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Hi seathestars, do you bet on horses? If so what do you base your selections on? I am sure the people on this forum could improve your strike rate if you asked some relevant questions, if that is what you hope to achieve.
 
JennyK said:
"Yes, I'm not suggesting he wasn't concerned with the class they were going to run in. I only stated that from what you seemed to be saying, that it didn't matter what class the race to be run was in Coffee Boy's case in respect of his form status."

Exactly, T Tufnel.

"The only way I can see on the evidence available in the form book (apart from the speed figure) that mitigates the 9 length beating is the fact he was given exactly 9lbs to the winner, though less to others in front of him."

In my view the three pertinent issues (apart of course from the class of the race) were Roushayd's placing, the distance beaten and, as you say, the weight he was giving the winner.

re the 4.55, that's why I am considering a book. I'm hesitant to rule out Solar Aclaim, Northern Spirit or Vespasian. More work to do but maybe this will be a case where a 4 horse book is practicable.
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Can it be coincidence that in the other 2 races Roushayd ran in before the ONC, he was beaten both times, but was giving more lbs per length than was beaten?

Many of VDW's examples show the same factor.

I ran a check on the last 5 years data in Flat handicaps using a little leeway. Just over 40% of handicaps have at least 1 horse with this factor with an average of 1.5 qualifiers per race. 21% of those races were won by such a horse. Average SP was 7/2.

Chase handicaps had far less races and just 16% of races had at least 1 qualifier with 1.2 qualifiers per race. Almost 22% of races with at least 1 qualifier went to one of them. Average SP 5/2.

Hurdle handicaps had 22% of races having at least 1 qualifier and 1.3 qualifiers per race. 22% of those races went to a qualifier at average SP of 11/4.

So perhaps that's connected in some way as to why VDW said he estimated he bet less 20% of horses he thought should win?
And also perhaps something to do with Hall saying the key didn't seem to produce as many bets over the jumps as the flat?

Of course the lbs per length scale is race distance related and winning distances over jumps are usually much higher than the flat. I guess VDW was using the official scales.
 
"Can it be coincidence that in the other 2 races Roushayd ran in before the ONC, he was beaten both times, but was giving more lbs per length than was beaten?"

In a word, T Tufnel, yes. Roushayd would have been had a "form" horse for the 1988 Old Newton Cup had he been carrying less weight compared with First Division and Merce Cunningham than the distances by which they beat him.

Other pertinent handicap examples are Philodantes (flat) and Canny Danny (nh, the race where VDW claimed to have backed him, not the one on 05/01/85). There are others in non-handicaps, eg Three Tails.
 
Hcaps can produce what i call Moral Winners ie a horse can fin 5th but because of the dist bt and the weight given it can be rated higher than the race winner. Of course its then down to does the BHA think simular and up the OR and sometimes they do not. On the next run(s) then its down to does the market think simular and negate the value from the get-go and sometimes it does not.

Over the years I have often seen people mock the pounds and lengths equation along the lines of a great big horse running round a muddy track what difference will 2 pounds more or less make. What i would say about this being given simular circumstances its uncanny how often this does workout accurately certainly on enough occasions to justify paying attention to the consequences and opportunities involved.
 
JennyK said:
"Can it be coincidence that in the other 2 races Roushayd ran in before the ONC, he was beaten both times, but was giving more lbs per length than was beaten?"

In a word, T Tufnel, yes. Roushayd would have been had a "form" horse for the 1988 Old Newton Cup had he been carrying less weight compared with First Division and Merce Cunningham than the distances by which they beat him.

Other pertinent handicap examples are Philodantes (flat) and Canny Danny (nh, the race where VDW claimed to have backed him, not the one on 05/01/85). There are others in non-handicaps, eg Three Tails.
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Ok I think I can see why those 2 runs were not necessary for Roushayd to have been giving weight to the winners. The improvement came in higher class than those, and of course the ONC. Though had Roushayd been carrying a weight much closer to the winner of the Northern Dancer, say 9-0 instead of 9-9, his speed figure would have been lower, though still an improvement, but the distance beaten would surely not have been negated. Also VDW said for both runs that he wasn't ready yet.

Philodantes I think has more in common with say Ekbalco, than many other selections. He won a low class amateur race over a mile as a short priced fav. Then went up to class 85 over a mile at York in a limited handicap where top weight had 8-12 and bottom 8-0. Philodantes carried 8-10 and not fancied in the betting and finished 8th of 12 behind Baronet (a horse who later that season did have the weight vs lengths beaten trait in all 3 runs before the Cambridgeshire where Hall said he was a good thing).

Then 3 weeks later Philodantes went to Epsom in a slightly lower value race 76 but this time up 2 furlongs to 1m 2f. He won comfortably at 10/1. The owner apparently landed a bit of touch with him having taken 14/1 in the morning.

2 weeks later he went to Royal Ascot in the Bessborough handicap down to class 63 but up another 2 furlongs to 1m 4f carrying 9-2 and forecast favourite. But he ran 6th (not sure how far he was beaten) but he was giving 10 lbs to the winner St Briavels the 10/1 winner.

He was rested for 44 days before dropping in class to 37 at Goodwood and back to the distance of his best win of 1m 2f carrying 9-1 and won at 4/1 where VDW said he was a good thing.

So class, distance, going and probably course suitability come into the balancing act as well as weight. But if the class, trip, going or course are deemed wrong for the horse then I guess his view was the weight issue was immaterial.
 
Wrong Easterby horse. Should have gone with the younger horse who bolted up 2 runs back but didn't repeat it next time.

I'm not going to post any more tables. It's clearly not helping me much, and continues to frustrate more than anything. There doesn't seem to be anyway to isolate the winners with any great success.

As a kid I used to be almost obsessive about fishing, either from the river bank or the beach. I wish I'd retained that as my main obsession.

It was certainly far less expensive and demoralising than fishing for winners amongst racehorses.
 
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