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Eric Bowers narrowing the field

AJ the Hobbyist said:
I agree that Bravo Zulu (15:48 Ponty) could run a big race with a good chance of placing, but maybe not winning outright. At the moment, the BFEX 4TBP market has low equity (£584) with BZ's odds at 1,97 which is sure to change during the next few hours. I'm looking for at least 2.8> in the 4TBP before committing to a full-on Layered Betting System.

View attachment 167810
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I went for the full 7pt LBS at good cover odds. BZ was struggling 3f out and faded badly, and the bet was a bust.

1780413099647.png
 
Misteroddsocks 8.00 Warwick.

I know it was a long time ago, 11/12/24 but I noted this horse.

My comments: Big, very green horse, Should improve, May take time!

Subsequently it did nothing, until it won first time up after a wind op.

It then ran against Thickthorn Tom and was well beaten.

(15 lengths, not the half length ATR website is quoting).

They seemed happy enough to take on TT again before the latter was withdrawn.

I thought Gethings last time out gave it quite a bit to do.

Currently 5.5 on Betfair.
 
Not a bowers race. But couldnt help see that the 7.42 at ripon has most of the pace drawn low. Now, the advantage is supposedly in the high numbers but cannot see who will go on from thoses numbers. Man of honour could go out in front and stay there.
 
Olwenba said:
Not a bowers race. But couldnt help see that the 7.42 at ripon has most of the pace drawn low. Now, the advantage is supposedly in the high numbers but cannot see who will go on from thoses numbers. Man of honour could go out in front and stay there.
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Terrible 👍
 
Not an easy 16 runner handicap, but Balanced.

A decision for the final short-list would be based on the rating, a value check, and a cursory Bowers check. If a runner aligns well, then I'd pay more attention overall. Lady Mariko could run a fair race, but needs things to fall into place.

Inspired looked unlucky last run, but now seems over-bet.

1780552269942.png
 
Last edited:
This one is a non Bowers

This is an incredibly fascinating Class 2 Handicap. We are dealing with high-quality horses, but track dynamics (Hamilton's stiff finish) and unexposed potential are the true separators here.

Let's break down the mechanical engines using our fully integrated Adjusted CCR, Corrected Timeform, and RaceIQframework.

📊 Master Summary: Adjusted CCR & Corrected Timeform (Hamilton 3.51)​

  • Today's Median OR: 96 | Base Weight: 9-8 (134 lbs)
Horse NameCurrent ORCorrected Tfig Trajectory (L3)Corrected TFR Trajectory (L3)Handicap Assessment (TFR vs OR)
Altareq8546 ➔ 85 ➔ 8067 ➔ 89 ➔ 90+5 lbs (Massive Upside): Opening handicap mark of 85 drastically underplays his ability. His master rating is climbing after a year off, and his ceiling is completely unknown.
Eternal Force9684 ➔ 101 ➔ 86101 ➔ 108 ➔ 105+12 lbs Well-In: A brilliant profile. Even on a "respectable" but non-winning run at Doncaster last time out, he generated a 105 TFR against a 96 mark. The class anchor of the race.
Botanical103107 ➔ 96 ➔ 78106 ➔ 114 ➔ 91+11 lbs (Volatile): Capable of a massive 114 rating, but completely bottomed out to a 78 speed figure last time at Newmarket. Track dynamics are a major concern.
Diego Ventura104105 ➔ 88 ➔ 109107 ➔ 109 ➔ 109Level: Running exactly to his high mark. Handicapped to the hilt and struggles to find that extra 2-3 lbs needed to win in Class 2 company.
Theoryofeverything9281 ➔ 81 ➔ 9889 ➔ 99 ➔ 98+6 lbs (Reliable Grinder): A solid horse but lacks the tactical acceleration to put away progressive types like Eternal Force or Altareq.

(Note: Two B Tanned is a non-runner.)

🔬 RaceIQ Audit & Track Dynamics​

Hamilton is undulating with a stiff, testing finish. It exposes horses who don't finish their races and heavily rewards closing speed.

  • Altareq (The Improvised Engine):
    • Timeform: "very much caught the eye... good headway final 1f, nearest finish."
    • RaceIQ Confirmation: 107.65% Finishing Speed (1st in field). This is the smoking gun. Despite a slow start (0-20mph in 3.23s), his late-race acceleration is elite. Hamilton's stiff finish is custom-built for a horse who hits the line this hard.
  • Eternal Force (The Class Standard):
    • Timeform: "overall profile is still a positive one... worth another chance to regain the progressive thread."
    • RaceIQ Confirmation: 102.09% Finishing Speed. He maintains his speed efficiently. His Doncaster run was a perfect prep to blow the cobwebs away, and the Haggas/Marquand combination is lethal when targeting these handicaps.
  • Botanical (The Trap?):
    • Timeform: "became unbalanced in the Dip, left behind approaching final 1f."
    • RaceIQ Confirmation: 98.56% Finishing Speed. The data confirms he hated the undulations at Newmarket. Hamilton is also notoriously undulating. If he lost his balance at Newmarket, Hamilton's dip and uphill finish could trigger the exact same mechanical failure.

🧮 The Dutch Strategy (Hamilton 3.51)​

We have a tight betting heat, but the data points directly to a two-horse war between the proven class of Eternal Force (11/8) and the massive unexposed upside of Altareq (3/1). We are fading Botanical due to the severe track dynamic warnings.

Because Eternal Force is a short price (11/8 or ~2.37 Decimal), we use him as the "Bankroll Protector," while weaponizing Altareq as the "Profit Driver."

Weighted Attack (10-Point Total):

  1. Eternal Force (Odds 11/8 or 2.37): Stake 5.50 pts (The Protector: If he wins, he returns 13.03 points ➔ +3.03 pts profit. He covers the bet and keeps the project climbing.)
  2. Altareq (Odds 3/1 or 4.00): Stake 4.50 pts (The Profit Driver: If his 107% finishing speed unleashes on this hill, he returns 18.00 points ➔ +8.00 pts profit.)
Why this structure? It guarantees a profit if either of the two highest-rated mechanical engines win, while heavily punishing the bookmakers if the unexposed 4-year-old (Altareq) blows past his lenient handicap mark.
 
4:42 Wetherby:

Still playing with Copilot, futher down the rabbit hole LOL.

RPR + OR – Odds (Ranked Best to Worst)
RankHorseCombinedOddsValue Score
1Empirestateofmind17220152
2Obelix1717164
3Madame De Sevigne17114157
4Inspired1712169
5Stratocracy17011159
6It Just Takes Time1696163
7Lady Mariko1699160
8Yaajooz16414150
9War Howl16450114
10Catalyse16533132
11Society Man16725142
12Livonian16666100
13Anthropologist16233129
14Symphony Of Joy15840118
15Orne16310153
16Roaring Ralph166——
 
A lower grade event and a runner dropping to make it a field of 9.

The Bower shortlist:
Belsito [9-9]​
Kelpie Grey [9-7]​
Thunderstorm Katie [9-1] - Tentative​

Race Introduction​

This is a 6f Class 5 handicap at Hamilton (14:51) on good‑to‑firm ground, a setup that typically rewards pace control, track craft, and proven course form. With a £4k prize, the field is made up of exposed sprinters, several of whom are returning to their preferred conditions after recent runs on softer ground or the all‑weather.

Hamilton’s undulating, sprint track places a premium on:

  • Course familiarity
  • The ability to quicken off the hill
The race features:

  • Two horses ahead of the handicapper on recent RPRs (Belsito, Kelpie Grey)
  • A 9‑time C&D winner returning to his favourite track (Iris Dancer)
  • A progressive filly switching from AW to turf (Pickersgill)
  • A sharp 5f mare stepping up in trip (Thunderstorm Katie)
It’s a competitive low‑grade sprint, but the form lines, speed figures, and L33 model all point toward a small cluster of runners with a clear edge.

Combined summary table (Form Reader + L33)​

HorseForm Reader viewL33 statusTactical DropperOverall today
BelsitoTop recent figure, C&D, ahead of ORBETNo (1 flag only)Strong win chance
Kelpie GreyVery high peak/avg, in form, slight trip niggleBETNoMajor danger
Iris DancerHuge C&D bias, well handicapped with claimFOLLOWNoBig course player, bounce-back type
Thunderstorm KatieIn form, 5f specialist up to 6fFOLLOWNoSolid, but trip/class questions
ImpressorGood peak, C&D, but form dippingSTOPNoNeeds revival
PickersgillProgressive filly, AW/7f peakFOLLOWNoRespect, but surface/trip doubts
Carlton And CoAW peak, modest recent turfSTOP/FOLLOWNoMore to prove
Wish ThisOld AW peak, current form poorSTOPNoHard to fancy
Invincible RubyOld turf peak, TS and RPR now weakSTOPNoOpposable

Jockey summary table​

HorseJockeyClaimRead on the booking
BelsitoTom Eaves0Proven senior, knows the horse, positive upgrade from claimer.
Kelpie GreyPaul Mulrennan0Regular partner, strong northern sprint rider.
PickersgillRowan Scott0Solid senior; filly switches from AW regular rider.
ImpressorSam James0Capable sprint jockey, familiar with the horse.
Wish ThisSean Kirrane0Knows the horse; needs to spark a revival.
Carlton And CoBilly Garritty0Senior replacing a claimer; mild positive.
Thunderstorm KatieLauren Young5Valuable claim; has ridden her well recently.
Invincible RubyGreg Fairley0Same as last time; no obvious new angle.
Iris DancerTom Kiely-Marshall5Big claim on a C&D specialist; could be a key edge.

Best three bets (combined model view)​

1️⃣ Belsito — main win bet

  • Dual C&D winner, peak and average ability very strong.
  • L33 gives a clear BET: TS vs last run, RPR v OR, class/distance logical.
  • Jockey upgrade and proven Hamilton profile make him the most solid.
2️⃣ Kelpie Grey — main danger / win bet

  • Highest overall peak, strong recent TS and RPR, and L33 also says BET.
  • Slight question dropping from 7f to 6f, but raw ability and current form are too strong to ignore.
3️⃣ Iris Dancer — value each‑way / place‑heavy bet

  • Not a pure L33 bet (fails exposure check), but the 9‑time C&D angle plus a handy mark and 5lb claim are powerful.
  • Recent TS/RPR dip is a concern, yet his Hamilton record suggests he can bounce back sharply here.
 
Leodis said:
A lower grade event and a runner dropping to make it a field of 9.

The Bower shortlist:
Belsito [9-9]​
Kelpie Grey [9-7]​
​
Thunderstorm Katie [9-1] - Tentative​

Race Introduction​

This is a 6f Class 5 handicap at Hamilton (14:51) on good‑to‑firm ground, a setup that typically rewards pace control, track craft, and proven course form. With a £4k prize, the field is made up of exposed sprinters, several of whom are returning to their preferred conditions after recent runs on softer ground or the all‑weather.

Hamilton’s undulating, sprint track places a premium on:

  • Course familiarity
  • The ability to quicken off the hill
The race features:

  • Two horses ahead of the handicapper on recent RPRs (Belsito, Kelpie Grey)
  • A 9‑time C&D winner returning to his favourite track (Iris Dancer)
  • A progressive filly switching from AW to turf (Pickersgill)
  • A sharp 5f mare stepping up in trip (Thunderstorm Katie)
It’s a competitive low‑grade sprint, but the form lines, speed figures, and L33 model all point toward a small cluster of runners with a clear edge.

Combined summary table (Form Reader + L33)​

HorseForm Reader viewL33 statusTactical DropperOverall today
BelsitoTop recent figure, C&D, ahead of ORBETNo (1 flag only)Strong win chance
Kelpie GreyVery high peak/avg, in form, slight trip niggleBETNoMajor danger
Iris DancerHuge C&D bias, well handicapped with claimFOLLOWNoBig course player, bounce-back type
Thunderstorm KatieIn form, 5f specialist up to 6fFOLLOWNoSolid, but trip/class questions
ImpressorGood peak, C&D, but form dippingSTOPNoNeeds revival
PickersgillProgressive filly, AW/7f peakFOLLOWNoRespect, but surface/trip doubts
Carlton And CoAW peak, modest recent turfSTOP/FOLLOWNoMore to prove
Wish ThisOld AW peak, current form poorSTOPNoHard to fancy
Invincible RubyOld turf peak, TS and RPR now weakSTOPNoOpposable

Jockey summary table​

HorseJockeyClaimRead on the booking
BelsitoTom Eaves0Proven senior, knows the horse, positive upgrade from claimer.
Kelpie GreyPaul Mulrennan0Regular partner, strong northern sprint rider.
PickersgillRowan Scott0Solid senior; filly switches from AW regular rider.
ImpressorSam James0Capable sprint jockey, familiar with the horse.
Wish ThisSean Kirrane0Knows the horse; needs to spark a revival.
Carlton And CoBilly Garritty0Senior replacing a claimer; mild positive.
Thunderstorm KatieLauren Young5Valuable claim; has ridden her well recently.
Invincible RubyGreg Fairley0Same as last time; no obvious new angle.
Iris DancerTom Kiely-Marshall5Big claim on a C&D specialist; could be a key edge.

Best three bets (combined model view)​

1️⃣ Belsito — main win bet

  • Dual C&D winner, peak and average ability very strong.
  • L33 gives a clear BET: TS vs last run, RPR v OR, class/distance logical.
  • Jockey upgrade and proven Hamilton profile make him the most solid.
2️⃣ Kelpie Grey — main danger / win bet

  • Highest overall peak, strong recent TS and RPR, and L33 also says BET.
  • Slight question dropping from 7f to 6f, but raw ability and current form are too strong to ignore.
3️⃣ Iris Dancer — value each‑way / place‑heavy bet

  • Not a pure L33 bet (fails exposure check), but the 9‑time C&D angle plus a handy mark and 5lb claim are powerful.
  • Recent TS/RPR dip is a concern, yet his Hamilton record suggests he can bounce back sharply here.
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I live about 30mins from Hamilton Park and if they have the weather I have currently it will be nearer Soft than Good to Firm, keep an eye on the going Leodis Leodis
 
Leodis said:
How are you finding CoPilot, @
TheBluesBrother
TheBluesBrother ?
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It's good fun to see what you can achieve and my copy of Copilot updated itself yesterday, I can now read straight off an RP page.

One thing I have just learned, to get Copilot to read an Excel data, configure it as a table then place it in OneDrive.

Mike.
 
Sullybomb said:
I live about 30mins from Hamilton Park and if they have the weather I have currently it will be nearer Soft than Good to Firm, keep an eye on the going Leodis Leodis
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Thanks for the heads-up, Sullybomb Sullybomb.​

​

I have checked with CoPilot against a possible ground change:​

​

Would the top three change?​

No — the same three remain the correct top tier:
  1. Belsito
  2. Kelpie Grey
  3. Iris Dancer
But the relative strength shifts:
  • Belsito → stays clear #1
  • Kelpie Grey → still #2 but loses a little of his edge
  • Iris Dancer → ground change boosts him; now a very strong #3 and a genuine threat
If the ground went fully Soft, Iris Dancer might even challenge Kelpie Grey for #2 — but on Good to Soft, the original hierarchy stands.
 
TheBluesBrother said:
It's good fun to see what you can achieve and my copy of Copilot updated itself yesterday, I can now read straight off an RP page.

One thing I have just learned, to get Copilot to read an Excel data, configure it as a table then place it in OneDrive.

Mike.
Click to expand...
It can be a handy sidekick, TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother and I'm sure it will help with some of your speed figure work.

Regards
 
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