Eric Bowers narrowing the field

[Paul Brown]

12.45
Mudbir
Hawksbill
on my ratings

I think Bowers himself concentrated on sprints (5 and 6 furlongs) The draw was a factor if I've read it correctly. He did say other race were ok though. A lot of work was done on other areas as well. Please correct me if im wrong.

I think the 2010 info on Race Advisor with guest Dave Renham might be of interest.

Race Advisor Members

Guest post by David Renham from Racing Trends In this article I am looking to see whether market forces are the same at different course and distances

classic.raceadvisor.co.uk

 

[Paul Brown]

Saturday 6.15 Windsor
Betting to be revised tomorrow
Race is with in 2lb so might scrape in as a balanced race

No.	Draw	Horse	Weight (lbs)	Lbs Diff	Forecast Odds	Bowers Rating
1​	-11​	Betsen	142​	0​	5.5​	5.5​
2​	-8​	Desert Cop	142​	0​	14​	14​
3​	-7​	Star Chorus	142​	0​	21​	21​
4​	-1​	Kiniro	135​	7​	8​	15​
5​	-6​	An Outlaw's Grace	135​	7​	10​	17​
6​	-10​	Dublin Bay	134​	8​	4​	12​
7​	-2​	Jax Edge	134​	8​	7​	15​
8​	-3​	Supreme King	133​	9​	6.5​	15.5​
9​	-5​	Angel Of Anfield	133​	9​	15​	24​
10​	-12​	Combustion	132​	10​	13​	23​
11​	-9​	Marcellinus	131​	11​	3.5​	14.5​
12​	-4​	Alasrae	130​	12​	5​	17​

 

[Chesham]

Well done Leodis

 

[nagwa]

Great winner leodis

 

[Leodis]

Cheers

 

[Michael231]

Have added an IV to the scores now.
17:20 Roxy Ball Room Handicap Chester • Flat • 15f • Good to firm • Class 4

BALANCED RACE • Weight range: 120–137lbs (17lbs spread) • Midpoint: 128.5lbs • Median weight (130lbs) is 1.5lbs from midpoint — Bowers weight ×1.15 • Median OR: 75 (OR ✓ = at/above median)

🏟 Chester: Left-handed • Favoured draw: Low (STRONG BIAS) • Distance 10f+ — draw influence significantly reduced
Left-handed very tight oval. Low draw ALWAYS an advantage at every distance — stalls 1-4 have won 47% of races from 28% of runners.

Pace Map — Expected Early Positions Very hot pace expected

Front Runner

Solar Pass
100% FR • Stall 4
Shipshape
100% FR • Stall 2
Venezuelan
100% FR • Stall 3

Prominent

None

Versatile

Furhaan
0% FR • Stall 7
Midnight Rumble
0% FR • Stall 6

Hold-Up

Curran
0% FR • Stall 5

3 front runners want to lead — likely to contest a fast, hard-fought early pace that could set it up for hold-up horses to finish best.
Watch: Curran (Stall 5)

#	Horse	Draw	OR	Odds	Wgt	DSLR	Bowers	Pace Profile	Draw Score	Bonuses	KNN	Final Score	Verdict
1	Solar Pass p A M Balding / Jason Watson	4	76 ✓	6/5 SP 2.2 card: 4.5	131	14	#3	Front Runner 100% FR / 0% HU 10/10 2 runs	— 3/5 Stall 4	Strongly backed 4.5→6/5 IV 1.06 (Average) 🌦 Going stretch (Good to firm) 2nd last run | Consistent placer 14 days — ideal freshness Beaten fav Same/similar weight Trainer 25% at Chester (17/67) +4.0	0% Poor	11.86	TOP PICK BF
2	Shipshape p B J Llewellyn / David Probert	2	75 ✓	11/4 SP 3.75 card: 3.5	130	14	#4	Front Runner 100% FR / 0% HU 9/10 2 runs	— 3/5 Stall 2	Steady at 11/4 IV 2.12 (Strong) — small fields ✓ 🌦 Going stretch (Good to firm) Won last run | Won prev run | Consistent placer 14 days — ideal freshness Course winner Weight up 7lbs Trainer 17% at Chester (1/6) +3.6	20% Weak	10.97	NOT BOWERS BUT! C
3	Venezuelan v G Hanmer / Toby Moore	3	82 ✓	11/1 SP 12.0 card: 11	137	28	#1	Front Runner 100% FR / 0% HU 10/10 1 runs	— 3/5 Stall 3	Steady at 11/1 IV 2.12 (Strong) — small fields ✓ 🌦 Good going match (Good to firm) 28 days — good preparation 7lb claim Same/similar weight +2.9	40% Moderate	10.07	CONTENDER
4	Furhaan J S Goldie / Lauren Young	7	65	6/1 SP 7.0 card: 17	120	41	#6	Versatile 0% FR / 0% HU 5/10 1 runs	— 3/5 Stall 7	Strongly backed 17.0→6/1 🌦 Going stretch (Good to firm) 41 days — within sweet spot 5lb claim Weight down 10lbs ✓ Trainer 25% at Chester (1/4) +2.29	20% Weak	7.72	NOT BOWERS BUT!
5	Midnight Rumble J Coulson / S M Levey	6	80 ✓	11/1 SP 12.0 card: 11	135	28	#2	Versatile 0% FR / 0% HU 5/10 1 runs	— 3/5 Stall 6	Steady at 11/1 IV 2.12 (Strong) — small fields ✓ 🌦 Going stretch (Good to firm) 28 days — good preparation Weight down 5lbs ✓ 0/1 at course (need 3+ runs) +1.8	0% Poor	7.14	WATCH
6	Curran B R Millman / T Eaves	5	71	8/1 SP 9.0 card: 4	126	22	#5	Hold-Up 0% FR / 100% HU 3/10 1 runs	— 3/5 Stall 5	Drifting badly 4.0→8/1 IV 0.0 (Poor) — small fields 🌦 Acceptable going (Good to firm) Won last run Slight class rise (Cls 5→4) 22 days — good preparation Weight down 5lbs ✓ +1.5	0% Poor	6.5	ELIMINATED
7	Ruler Legend G Hanmer / S D Bowen	1	67	14/1 SP 15.0 card: 7	122	18	#7	Front Runner 73% FR / 20% HU 9/10 15 runs	— 3/5 Stall 1	—	—	—	MARKET REJECT D

 

[Paul Brown]

Saturday 6.15 Windsor
Betting to be revised tomorrow
Race is with in 2lb so might scrape in as a balanced race

No.	Draw	Horse	Weight (lbs)	Lbs Diff	Forecast Odds	Bowers Rating
1​	-11​	Betsen	142​	0​	5.5​	5.5​
2​	-8​	Desert Cop	142​	0​	14​	14​
3​	-7​	Star Chorus	142​	0​	21​	21​
4​	-1​	Kiniro	135​	7​	8​	15​
5​	-6​	An Outlaw's Grace	135​	7​	10​	17​
6​	-10​	Dublin Bay	134​	8​	4​	12​
7​	-2​	Jax Edge	134​	8​	7​	15​
8​	-3​	Supreme King	133​	9​	6.5​	15.5​
9​	-5​	Angel Of Anfield	133​	9​	15​	24​
10​	-12​	Combustion	132​	10​	13​	23​
11​	-9​	Marcellinus	131​	11​	3.5​	14.5​
12​	-4​	Alasrae	130​	12​	5​	17​

18:15 Windsor

Desert Cop12/1

Supreme King (IRE)6/1

An Outlaw's Grace (IRE)10/1

 

[Michael231]

One for this evening.
19:00 Fitzdares Sprint Series Handicap Windsor • Flat • 6f • Good to firm • Class 2

BALANCED RACE • Weight range: 127–142lbs (15lbs spread) • Midpoint: 134.5lbs • Median weight (135lbs) is 0.5lbs from midpoint — Bowers weight ×1.3 • Median OR: 93 (OR ✓ = at/above median)

🏟 Windsor: Right-handed • Favoured draw: Low • Sprint distance — draw at full effect
Right-handed figure-of-eight. Low draws slightly favoured.

Pace Map — Expected Early Positions Very hot pace expected

Front Runner

Fandom
67% FR • Stall 9
Cindy Lou Who
91% FR • Stall 11
Bolo Neighs
100% FR • Stall 8

Prominent

Regal Envoy
50% FR • Stall 7

Versatile

King Of Light
0% FR • Stall 10
Coul Angel
0% FR • Stall 5
El Bodon
0% FR • Stall 2

Hold-Up

Invictus Gold
0% FR • Stall 4
Rydale Frosty
0% FR • Stall 1
Divine Libra
0% FR • Stall 3

3 front runners want to lead — likely to contest a fast, hard-fought early pace that could set it up for hold-up horses to finish best.
Watch: Invictus Gold (Stall 4), Rydale Frosty (Stall 1)

#	Horse	Draw	OR	Odds	Wgt	DSLR	Bowers	Pace Profile	Draw Score	Bonuses	KNN	Final Score	Verdict
1	Fandom R Hannon / S M Levey	9	99 ✓	11/4 SP 3.75 card: 7	141	9	#1	Front Runner 67% FR / 0% HU 10/10 3 runs	⚠ 2/5 Stall 9	Strongly backed 7.0→11/4 IV 1.81 (Strong) — medium fields ✓ 🌦 Good going match (Good to firm) Won prev run 9 days — ideal freshness Distance winner Weight up 10lbs Trainer 18% at Windsor (8/44) +3.6	40% Moderate	11.95	TOP PICK D
2	Cindy Lou Who A W Carroll / William Carson	11	92	9/1 SP 10.0 card: 15	134	23	#8	Front Runner 91% FR / 0% HU 10/10 11 runs	⚠ 2/5 Stall 11	Strongly backed 15.0→9/1 IV 3.62 (Strong) — medium fields ✓ 🌦 Acceptable going (Good to firm) Slight class rise (Cls 3→2) 23 days — good preparation Course winner | Distance winner Weight up 11lbs Trainer 23% at Windsor (13/56) +3.6	60% Strong	11.56	ELIMINATED CD
3	Regal Envoy p W J Knight / Oisin Murphy	7	94 ✓	4/1 SP 5.0 card: 4.33	136	21	#4	Prominent 50% FR / 50% HU 7/10 2 runs	⚠ 2/5 Stall 7	Drifting 4.3→4/1 IV 3.62 (Strong) — medium fields ✓ 🌦 Good going match (Good to firm) Won last run | Consistent placer 21 days — good preparation Course winner | Distance winner Weight up 15lbs Trainer 11% at Windsor (2/19) +4.2	20% Weak	11.25	CONTENDER C|D
4	Bolo Neighs R M Beckett / Rossa Ryan	8	94 ✓	9/1 SP 10.0 card: 11	136	16	#5	Front Runner 100% FR / 0% HU 9/10 1 runs	⚠ 2/5 Stall 8	Steady at 9/1 IV 1.81 (Strong) — medium fields ✓ 🌦 Ideal going (Good to firm) ✓ Won prev run Slight class rise (Cls 3→2) 16 days — good preparation Distance winner Weight up 5lbs Trainer 16% at Windsor (4/25) +2.8	40% Moderate	10.5	WATCH D
5	King Of Light S C Williams / Marco Ghiani	10	91	15/2 SP 8.5 card: 7	133	23	#9	Versatile 0% FR / 0% HU 5/10 1 runs	⚠ 2/5 Stall 10	Drifting 7.0→15/2 IV 2.41 (Strong) — medium fields ✓ 🌦 Acceptable going (Good to firm) 23 days — good preparation Weight up 11lbs Trainer 18% at Windsor (7/40) +1.6	0% Poor	7.78	ELIMINATED
6	Coul Angel M Appleby / R Havlin	5	93 ✓	5/1 SP 6.0 card: 9	135	58	#6	Versatile 0% FR / 0% HU 5/10 1 runs	— 3/5 Stall 5	Strongly backed 9.0→5/1 IV 0.6 (Poor) 🌦 Good going match (Good to firm) 58 days — slightly long absence Distance winner Weight up 4lbs Trainer 12% at Windsor (1/8) +1.3	0% Poor	7.73	NOT BOWERS BUT! D
7	Invictus Gold p Tom Clover / Tom Marquand	4	100 ✓	8/1 SP 9.0 card: 8	142	23	#2	Hold-Up 0% FR / 100% HU 1/10 1 runs	— 3/5 Stall 4	Drifting 8.0→8/1 IV 0.6 (Poor) 🌦 Good going match (Good to firm) 2nd last run 23 days — good preparation Distance winner Weight up 4lbs Trainer 17% at Windsor (3/18) +1.8	0% Poor	7.13	WATCH D
8	El Bodon Jane Chapple-Hyam / Saffie Osborne	2	99 ✓	8/1 SP 9.0 card: 13	141	58	#3	Versatile 0% FR / 0% HU 5/10 1 runs	4/5 Stall 2	Strongly backed 13.0→8/1 IV 0.0 (Poor) — medium fields 🌦 Going stretch (Good to firm) 58 days — slightly long absence Distance winner Weight up 4lbs +0.1	0% Poor	6.93	WATCH D
9	Rydale Frosty D M Simcock / Harry Davies	1	92	15/2 SP 8.5 card: 9	127	58	#7	Hold-Up 0% FR / 100% HU 1/10 1 runs	4/5 Stall 1	Steady at 15/2 IV 0.0 (Poor) — medium fields 🌦 Good going match (Good to firm) 58 days — slightly long absence Course winner | Distance winner Weight down 4lbs ✓ Trainer 17% at Windsor (2/12) +1.7	0% Poor	6.82	ELIMINATED CD
10	Divine Libra C Hills / Finley Marsh	3	91	17 17.0	133	54	#10	Hold-Up 0% FR / 100% HU 1/10 1 runs	4/5 Stall 3	IV 0.0 (Poor) — medium fields 🌦 Good going match (Good to firm) 54 days — slightly long absence Distance winner Weight up 5lbs +-0.1	0% Poor	4.13	ELIMINATED D
11	Baldomero p M Appleby / C J Whiteley	6	85	22/1 SP 23.0 card: 15	127	16	#11	Front Runner 71% FR / 12% HU 9/10 17 runs	— 3/5 Stall 6	—	—	—	MARKET REJECT D

 

[tacker]

Handicapping is very much about judgement and therefore i think we'll see around 11lb rise, maybe a little more so a 5lb penalty should be obvious but then again handicappers need to consider other factors in particular how the race was run, which will include the time of the race etc.
Always a need to not be too mechanical about these things and there's just a chance he won't repeat that performance on similar ground ie they get away with it the once doesn't mean he'll do it again and getting back to "judgement" i'd say he actually looked a little awkward, even green.

SARANGPUR gets to run off a 5lb penalty, epsom 7.32 weds, should be interesting to see what new mark he'll get today.