ELO VERSUS POWER RATINGS.

[ArkRoyal]

22/02/2020​	27	Southampton	Aston Villa	1741​	1629​
22/02/2020​	27	Sheffield	Brighton	1801​	1633​
22/02/2020​	27	Chelsea	Tottenham	1785​	1843​
22/02/2020​	27	Leicester	Man City	1882​	2018​
22/02/2020​	27	C Palace	Newcastle	1703​	1708​
22/02/2020​	27	Burnley	Bournemouth	1756​	1617​
23/02/2020​	27	Man Utd	Watford	1816​	1686​
23/02/2020​	27	Wolves	Norwich	1820​	1588​
23/02/2020​	27	Arsenal	Everton	1812​	1803​
24/02/2020​	27	Liverpool	West Ham	2239​	1653​

 

[Delboy99]

..... Here are this week's Elo Ratings:-
ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE.
Norwich C 1599 v Leicester C 1811 -217 2
Brighton & H A 1644 v Crystal P 1714 -70 2
Bournemouth 1636 v Chelsea 1819 -183 2
Newcastle U 1686 v Burnley 1710 -24 X
West Ham U 1674 v Southampton T -21 X
Everton 1748 v Manchester U 1815 -67 2
Tottenham H 1818 v Wolverhampton T 1780 -38 X
Last week's competition for top dog of the ratings went to The Paul Steele Power Ratings with a return to form of 7 correct from 10 with Ark Royal second this week with 5 correct and Elo bringing up the rear with a lowly 4 correct.

 

[ArkRoyal]

28/02/2020	Norwich	Leicester	1578	1864
29/02/2020	West Ham	Southampton	1652	1754
29/02/2020	Watford	Liverpool	1671	2239
29/02/2020	Newcastle	Burnley	1693	1770
29/02/2020	Brighton	C Palace	1645	1717
29/02/2020	Bournemouth	Chelsea	1602	1802
29/02/2020	Aston Villa	Sheffield	1615	1788
01/03/2020	Tottenham	Wolves	1825	1829
01/03/2020	Man City	Arsenal	2035	1825
01/03/2020	Everton	Man Utd	1789	1830

 

[Delboy99]

ArkRoyal Thanks for these it helps with the comparison. I never like to chase you for these as I know how busy you must be, so it is indeed a bonus when they turn up out of the Blue! They have been performing OK too and quite steady. I note they are from a subscription site you must be with. Do they have good stats there, and worthy of closer scrutiny?

 

[ArkRoyal]

worthy of closer scrutiny?

They offer a 7 day trial

 

[Delboy99]

..... well what I meant is it a handy piece of software to experiment with. I like a dabble here and there and always was a sucker for something like this. Nice to have the opportunity to investigate as I have always been a bit of a systemite!

 

[Delboy99]

..... here are the Elo Ratings for this weekend:-
ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE.
Liverpool 2048 v Bournemouth 1640 408 1
Arsenal 1799 v West Ham U 1684 115 1
Crystal P 1722 v Watford 1690 32 X
Sheffield U 1703 v Norwich C 1606 97 1
Southampton T 1685 v Newcastle U 1685 0 X
Wolverhampton W 1789 v Brighton & H A 1636 153 1
Burnley 1711 v Tottenham H 1808 -197 2
Chelsea 1816 v Everton 1749 67 1
Manchester U 1827 v Manchester C 1993 -166 2
Leicester C 1799 v Aston V 1609 190 1
In the competition for top dog of the rating world, pride of place goes to The Paul Steele Power Ratings with 7/10 correct, followed by Ark Royal's contribution with 5/10 correct. In last place this week, the Elo Ratings with a lowly 4/10 correct. So on to next week!

 

[Delboy99]

..... with the virus lurking around who knows how much longer football will continue in its present form. Anyway here are this week's Elo Ratings:-
ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE.
Watford 1690 v Leicester C 1799 -109 2
Bournemouth 1640 v Crystal P 1722 -82 2
Brighton & H A 1636 v Arsenal 1799 -163 2
Manchester C 1993 v Burnley 1711 282 1
Newcastle U 1685 v Sheffield U 1703 -18 X
Norwich C 1606 v Southampton T 1685 -79 2
Aston V 1609 v Chelsea 1816 -207 2
West Ham U 1684 v Wolverhampton W 1789 -105 2
Tottenham H 1808 v Manchester U 1827 -19 X
Everton 1749 v Liverpool 2048 -299 2
The weekly competition for top dog of the ratings world is shared two way by Elo and Ark Royal Ratings with 5/10 each closely followed by the Paul Steel Power Ratings with 4/10, so all pretty close this last weekend.

 

[Delboy99]

..... looks like we are on hold until the coronavirus allows us to continue. So nothing here until the freeze is over.

 

[Delboy99]

...... well here we are and a month on, and still without our beloved football. Things were just beginning to get interesting with the stats and who was looking like being overall top dog. In retrospect I think that the Paul Steele Ratings just edged it overall and it will be interesting when football does eventually resume, to discover if this trend continues. Could be very little in it overall but roll on the recommencement of the season.

 

[Delboy99]

.... I was just wondering what happens when the Leagues actually restart.Will there be some kind of updating to do with Elo Ratings or do they just restart when football resumes. There are that many issues involved one wonders if this season will just be called null and void or perhaps can computers enter into it and decide what will be. A real headache for the authorities.

 

[Delboy99]

..... seeing as it is the last game of the season, I thought I would give the Elo Ratings a last run out as there was nothing interfering with data etc and unscheduled games hanging around.
ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE.
Arsenal 1800 v Watford 1654 146 1
Burnley 1739 v Brighton & H A 1646 93 1
Chelsea 1815 v Wolves 1791 24 X
Crystal P 1695 v Tottenham H 1811 -116 2
Everton 1737 v Bournemouth 1617 120 1
Leicester C 1772 v Manchester U 1867 -95 2
Manchester C 1987 v Norwich C 1539 448 1
Newcastle U 1686 v Liverpool 1991 -305 2
Southampton T 1715 v Sheffield U 1708 7 X
West Ham U 1673 v Aston V 1619 74 1
There looks to be a couple of close games Chelsea v Wolves and Southampton T v Sheffield U this closing weekend.

 

[StuartH]

Delboy99
Hi Dellboy
I noticed you are a fan, maybe not the right word of Elo ratings and would be interested in what you think of these.Been trying to teach myself
R programming language during lockdown with the 1 brain cell left.You are probably aware the draw prediction is not Elo ratings cup of tea.I have uploaded todays ratings for Serie A and tomorrows Serie A.If you have time just check your Elo ratings you will probably find a small difference in yours to mine.Mine are calculated on the up to date Elo ratings from ClubElo but have been run on 10,000 simulations, the score prediction is calculated from the ClubElo website.Not done any backtesting yet but would be interested to see what you think first venture into Elo.

 

[Delboy99]

StuartH Hi there Stuart sorry I have not been around all day until now. I would not say that I am a big fan of Elo Ratings, but find it another avenue to look at in an effort to broaden my horizons. The Elo Ratings I use are taken directly off Club Elo after each update but there is certainly no secret to how I use them as they are fairly straight forward. You are correct when you state that there are unfriendly towards the draw situation and I find that to get a draw teams have to be about 50 or so to get anywhere near. I have looked at your example carefully anf find that it must be even harder to affix a correct score to two Elo Ratings. For example two of the scores stated as a prediction of 1-2 one has a difference of 315 and the other further down has a difference of 105 yet both indicate a 1-2 away win? Likewise two scores of 2-1 home win have differences of 28 and 98 is there a reason locked into your workings for this? Good to see an attempt being made on correct scores and I would be interested to learn further on your progress.

 

[StuartH]

StuartH Hi there Stuart sorry I have not been around all day until now. I would not say that I am a big fan of Elo Ratings, but find it another avenue to look at in an effort to broaden my horizons. The Elo Ratings I use are taken directly off Club Elo after each update but there is certainly no secret to how I use them as they are fairly straight forward. You are correct when you state that there are unfriendly towards the draw situation and I find that to get a draw teams have to be about 50 or so to get anywhere near. I have looked at your example carefully anf find that it must be even harder to affix a correct score to two Elo Ratings. For example two of the scores stated as a prediction of 1-2 one has a difference of 315 and the other further down has a difference of 105 yet both indicate a 1-2 away win? Likewise two scores of 2-1 home win have differences of 28 and 98 is there a reason locked into your workings for this? Good to see an attempt being made on correct scores and I would be interested to learn further on your progress.

Thank you for getting back to me the only reason I chose Elo ratings -I found it the easiest way to scrape the information
Well spotted with differences in the ratings,when I used the actual formula for the correct scores it came up with ridiculous scorelines, 0-5,3-4 so I made some changes to the formula myself and that is what you see on the sheet I uploaded.I shall probably ditch this project and take on something else- football related.Thanks again

 

[Delboy99]

Thank you for getting back to me the only reason I chose Elo ratings -I found it the easiest way to scrape the information
Well spotted with differences in the ratings,when I used the actual formula for the correct scores it came up with ridiculous scorelines, 0-5,3-4 so I made some changes to the formula myself and that is what you see on the sheet I uploaded.I shall probably ditch this project and take on something else- football related.Thanks again

... I don't think you should ditch the project it is certainly worthwhile as there is nothing around in comparison. Just looks like you need to fine tune your ratings formula to fit more reasonable scorelines. It appears to have more to do with the difference between the home and away ratings and it may be a worthwhile exercise to inspect a few past results produced over certain rating differences. You could be on the fringe of something unique here Stuart.

 

[Delboy99]

..... no point in tracking any Elo ratings yet as there are not enough games played to be of any consequence. So probably back here when five or six have been played to be of any use.

 

[Shauno]

 

[Delboy99]

Shauno ..... you really ought not to look at your watch so often, it makes time drag all the more, and it must make your arm ache at the same time.

 

[Delboy99]

..... Ok as we are into the new season, we have a new set of Elo Ratings for matches 17th October to 19th October after the International period. AS usual it is a weekly contest between Elo and Paul Steele Power Ratings as to which one comes out as top dog, no prize but just a bit of fun and interest.
ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE.
Everton 1746 v Liverpool 1965 -219 2
Chelsea 1819 v Southampton T 1712 107 1
Leicester C 1774 v Aston V 1672 102 1
Newcastle U 1686 v Manchester U 1822 -136 2
Sheffield U 1658 v Fulham 1559 99 1
W.B.A. 1576 v Burnley 1690 -115 2
Manchester C 1941 v Arsenal 1807 134 1
Crystal P 1680 v Brighton & H A 1649 31 X
Tottenham H 1825 v West Ham U 1706 119 1
Leeds U 1643 v Wolverhampton W 1761 -118 2
One which looks drawish Crystal Palace v Brighton & H A.