Report for : 13/11/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/7 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/5 Odds: (Return: 0)
Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/10 Odds: 1.38 1.5 3.0 1.0 (Return: 10.88)
Mkt filter 2/3 Odds: 1.38 1.5 (Return: 4.88)
NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/14 Odds: 1.25 (Return: 2.25)
Mkt filter 1/6 Odds: 1.25 (Return: 2.25)
NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/14 Odds: 1.1 2.0 4.5 (Return: 10.6)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)
Total Out = 45 Total return (raw) = 23.73
Total wins: 8 / 45
List of winners:
Lin 15:05:00 Good Effort (IRE) 2.38
Lin 15:40:00 Pyledriver 2.5
Wol 17:30:00 Botanist 4.0
Wol 18:30:00 Desert Emperor 2.0
Utt 12:22:00 Jack Sharp (IRE) 2.1
Pun 13:48:00 Top Bandit 3.0
Wet 14:35:00 Lakota Warrior (IRE) 5.5
Wet 15:10:00 First Impression (IRE) 2.25
Pfft.
Today's picks did okay, a 2nd and 2 winners, 4/6 and 3/1.
No picks tomorrow.
I've been keeping a results file for the picks, going back to when I started them last February or so. Unfortunately the flat picks and Aw ones proved pretty lame, so I decided a few months back that I'd only bother with the NH, and that they wouldn't be any use until the season got going properly, sometime in October - in fact I did wonder if I'd be waiting for November, as in previous years I've had good runs in early to mid December as I recall.
Anyhow, I didn't want to have this year's record tacked onto the end of last year's, so I decided on 1 Nov as the 2021/2 start date, so to speak, and today saw bet number 23 win (Timeforatune) bringing results so far to 10 from 23, 30.53 returned for a profit of 7.53. Winrate is 43.48%, ROI 133%. Whilst this could be considered cherry picking it is consistent with my mutterings over the past few months about when it was all going to kick off again, and if I'd included the last week of october the numbers would look even better. This way whatever the bottom line says on my spreadsheet I know it's all from this season of the jumps, and excludes several weeks of those 'one previous winner v 6 unraced novice hurdlers' picks that the past month or two was cluttered up with. (Which I also said, a number of times, I didn't consider to be runners to bet on).
Anyone who doesn't agree with my decision can easily 'correct' my numbers by removing 23 bets, 10 winners, and 30.53 from the returns that I may mention in future, and simply keep tabs starting from now. In the final analysis I keep records to inform my own betting, and so I can be honest with myself about how things are going, the only 'fiddle' here is that I frequently skip runners that I think are too far odds on, or those that are up against some well odds on hotshot I have no rating for, or (let's face it) those I consider bad bets because of something I know about the horse or its opponents - I'm not going over a cliff backing something with three legs just because my ratings went doolally one day at Listowel!
I do not place large bets, I am not trying to earn a wage from this, this is entirely for fun - my main motivation is simply to be able to say I can beat the bookies over a period of time.... I'm solving a puzzle for fun. On the plus side that means my paltry stakes don't tend to cause me problems with accounts being limited or closed. (Ladbrokes - "Sorry Davejb, but you have too many winners lately, we are limiting your next bet to £2.57 " Me: "Sod that, I'm not putting as much as that on a horse just to make you lot happy!") If you want to be a pro go follow
mick or one of the other serious types!
Dave