Report for : 02/09/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/28 Odds: 4.5 11.0 (Return: 17.5)
Mkt filter 1/12 Odds: 4.5 (Return: 5.5)
Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 7/15 Odds: 1.0 2.75 2.75 0.5 0.4 1.75 0.03 (Return: 16.18)
Mkt filter 6/9 Odds: 1.0 2.75 0.5 0.4 1.75 0.03 (Return: 12.43)
NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)
NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)
Total Out = 49 Total return (raw) = 33.68
Total wins: 9 / 49
List of winners:
Sal 13:30:00 Outbreak 2.0
Hay 14:45:00 Laheg (FR) 3.75
Dun 15:00:00 Sister Lola (IRE) 3.75
Hay 15:15:00 New Kingdom 1.5
Hay 15:45:00 Al Suhail 1.4
Clo 16:15:00 Shahaada (IRE) 2.75
Clo 17:15:00 Shes Good Company (IRE) 5.5
New 19:05:00 Delgrey Boy 12.0
Che 19:25:00 Valiant Prince (IRE) 1.03
Wasn't worth waiting for, was it? There is a pick for tomorrow:
I bet you all wish you could write programs for the PC that could delve so deeply into form and speed to find hidden gems like this 8/13 favourite, who probably hasn't been spotted as a good thing by anyone else on the planet, eh? On the other hand, it might be that my program needn't have bothered to highlight this on.
One thing I will just point out is that this runner is very much like the last one, he's hot favourite for good reason - he's won 3 on the trot now, and has generally looked a good thing over fences, either won or come second every outing this year, and Donald Mc Cain has been happily snaffling class 4 then class 3 novice events with the horse - a good few of them in smaller fields. His only real threat looks to be Nicky Henderson's Hooper, who has been winning handicap hurdles at class 2 and is now being sent chasing..... under a 7lb claimer with 0-2 for chases in his logbook so far. I'm pretty sure Presentandcounting's jockey, Brian Hughes, will have the edge in experience somehow, but on the other hand adding that 7lb claim to the 10lb Hooper is already getting from the favourite and there is an opportunity there for an upset.
The pick gets the vote, he has shown he has taken to fences like a duck to water, but I wouldn't back him any shorter than about 4/6 simply because I think Hooper has ability and it only takes one mistake somewhere in the last few furlongs to allow an upset. Hooper is the only danger that I can see, the other pair haven't a hope in hell - especially Game In The Park - but will doubtless pick up a few bob for completing the course, so turning up here will help pay the bills.... a motive not to be sniffed at!
Putting my racehorse owner's hat on for a minute, after all I own three hairs on Glynn's nose and one of Asdaa's eyelashes, I have been perusing the 5.15 at Haydock tomorrow, the class 4 mile handicap that closes the card for the day. Now unfortunately, having just got back home this evening and finally got life back onto an even keel, my wife has a scan to look forward to tomorrow, having been phoned by the hospital with a no notice appointment, all whilst taking her ease in the sumptuous largely repaired and almost watertight bothy I managed to get the padlock off for a stay in the frozen north east.
If we were not otherwise booked I could have applied for an owners' badge and gone to see Asdaa run in this race, if successful I could then have winked at Mark Johnston and Franny Norton, and muttered my deeply held suspicion that he is running at Haydock with the express purpose of getting his handicap rating a few lbs lower. I've long contended he is better on the AW, and his win in a class 5 at Musselburgh came as a slight surprise (to everyone concerned, I suspect) - now going for this pot of 7400 or so quid is double the target, and if he brings it off that'd be fantastic, especially as he's 9lb worse off and the run in is over 4f, his wins seem to usually involve him coming off a bend, getting a few yards jump on the rest, and hanging on to the line - a gallop from half way, down a straight half mile plus, doesn't look to be playing to his limited strengths. I think the view is probably 'a third run down the field might get him back down 2 or 3 lbs (to where he last won from) and some sort of fluke win will be worth double what he usually gets when he manages to hold on in front'.
I'd have an EW bet on him, a very very small one, just out of a sense of loyalty (a bad reason to bet, but it's my 50p!) Unfortunately I can't help thinking it'll be either a bolt from the blue fluke win, which is highly unlikely, or an attempt to get to the front from the 2f point or thereabouts, probably to peter out a bit as several go past him and keep him out of the frame. I'll be thrilled by the fluke win though.... a class 4 0-80 handicap at the end of the card isn't much to cheer about if you are part of the Coolmore empire, but it's a case of realistic expectations - he's a lowish grade handicapper, one who has managed a mile a few times which gives him more race targets than when he was showing himself to be a 7f contender, he is not going to do more than pick up a class 4 or 5 handicap every so often. Compared to most of the horses that get into training this is actually pretty good!
Enjoy your weekend.
Dave