Report for : 06/04/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/17 Odds: 3.0 1.1 2.0 (Return: 9.1)
Mkt filter 3/10 Odds: 3.0 1.1 2.0 (Return: 9.1)
Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/7 Odds: 0.44 5.0 0.33 3.33 (Return: 13.1)
Mkt filter 2/4 Odds: 0.44 0.33 (Return: 2.77)
NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/5 Odds: 7.5 0.91 (Return: 10.41)
Mkt filter 2/5 Odds: 7.5 0.91 (Return: 10.41)
NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/2 Odds: 0.91 (Return: 1.91)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 0.91 (Return: 1.91)
Total Out = 31 Total return (raw) = 34.52
Total wins: 10 / 31
List of winners:
Pon 14:30:00 Bickerstaffe 4.0
Pon 15:30:00 Spycatcher (IRE) 1.44
Bat 15:40:00 Marlay Park 6.0
Bat 16:10:00 Golden Flame (IRE) 1.33
Che 17:00:00 Buxted Too 4.33
Che 19:00:00 Count Of Amazonia (IRE) 2.1
Che 20:00:00 Morlaix 3.0
Exe 14:20:00 Steal A March 8.5
Exe 14:50:00 Art Approval (FR) 1.91
Exe 16:20:00 Falberto (FR) 1.91
Up a little bit again, that's nice.
Today's selection was Burning Cash, 3.40 at Nottingham, he came 2nd at 7/1 by a length and a half. An unusually big price for most of the selections.
The picks - 2nd, 3rd, 0,0, W6/4, W16/5, 2nd,0,0 so far, I had the first winner at 9/4 so total loss on the day was not much at all, at SP it's -2.30
Winners at Lingfield haven't been that thick on the ground, 5-24 so far, and losing about 8 pts from the 24 staked, so I might have to take a bit of a look at this. Chelmsford is 7-17and about 13 pts up, Southwell comes in at 9-20 and maybe 2pts profit, Wolverhampton 10-35 and near enough breakeven, while Newcastle is 7-20 and 7 pts or so up.
That leaves the jumpers winning 30-61 for about 13 profit, compared to the AW runners (handicap and non handicap) producing 38-116 for 14 profit. Obviously the win rate and profit% is better with the jumpers, but as I've said before while both are showing a profit why not carry on. It stands to reason that the jumpers are going to be thin on the ground for a while from the very near future, and when the summer jumps starts up there'll probably be a while before they start getting going and producing anything much, so we'll just have to see how the flat pans out - there's not been a flat 'pick' as yet, and we'll need a few before we can assess whether this process is okay on the turf flat.
Onto tomorrow then:-
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No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
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Aintree 13:45:00 [NH C] Grade 1 [20f] Stks [[7] run]
7/7 Runners rated
128 * P011P12 Fusil Raffles (FR) (Bf 3.5) Drawn 0/7 Gelding
Henderson N J 6-32(11) Jacob Daryl 4-22(8) Days : 21
gng DST JCK
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/4 2Fav
WR% = 17.0
Taunton 14:00:00 [NH H] Class 4 [19f] Hcap [[11] run]
10/11 Runners rated
77 * 6029461 Blazing Saddles (Bf 5.5) Drawn 0/11 Gelding
Scott J 3-13(4) Griffiths Matt 0-8(1) Days : 24
JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/1 3Fav
WR% = 12.0
Taunton 15:05:00 [NH H] Class 5 [16.5f] Hcap [[12] run]
10/12 Runners rated
68 * 7766 An Tailliur (FR) (Bf 6.5) Drawn 0/12 Gelding
ONeill Jonjo 3-18(9) Kennedy W T 1-15(4) Days : 35
Passes: Stable Odds
Fails: Form
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/1 3Fav
WR% = 12.0
Taunton 15:40:00 [NH H] Class 3 [24f] Hcap [[6] run]
4/6 Runners rated
88 * 22531 Lady Kk (IRE) (Bf 2.63) Drawn 0/6 Mare
Scott J 3-13(4) Dingle Rex 1-11(3) Days : 7
jck
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/8 1Fav
WR% = 12.0
Southwell AW 16:25:00 [AW] Class 6 [5f] Stks [[8] run]
8/8 Runners rated
48 * 4462421 Brandy Station (IRE) (Bf 3.25) Drawn 3/8 Gelding
Williamson Mrs L 1-5(1) Wheatley Zak 1-2(1) Days : 4
GNG DST JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
AW non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 2/1 1Fav
WR% = 25.0
Picks list:
Another longish list then.... I'd prefer if there were more like 5-6 usually, but as long as I don't end up with 30 a day to bet on I guess I'm okay with it.... the idea is to find the better bets from the top rated runners though, not back the lot.
Dave