Early days

[davejb]

Report for : 16/03/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/9 Odds: 2.5 1.75 5.0 (Return: 12.25)
Mkt filter 3/4 Odds: 2.5 1.75 5.0 (Return: 12.25)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/9 Odds: 3.5 (Return: 4.5)
Mkt filter 0/6 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/7 Odds: 0.44 1.1 (Return: 3.54)
Mkt filter 2/2 Odds: 0.44 1.1 (Return: 3.54)

Total Out = 29 Total return (raw) = 20.29
Total wins: 6 / 29
List of winners:
Sou 12:30:00 Autonomy 3.5
Sou 15:20:00 Custard The Dragon 2.75
New 20:15:00 For Peats Sake 6.0
Che 13:55:00 Shishkin (IRE) 1.44
Che 15:05:00 Honeysuckle 2.1
Sed 16:35:00 Gran Paradiso (IRE) 4.5

Boo, lost! Should have kept my gob shut!
Selections today - W1/7, W1/4, W6/4, and a 2nd. The sole handicap job also finished second - so all in all that would have been two bets with one 6/4 winner.
Picks: W6/4, W1/4 - then downhill all the way with two 2nds, a 3rd, and two zeros.
A shame about Chacun Pour Soi, running out of oomph on the uphill finish. Tiger Roll - now how silly would the handicapper be looking if he'd let Tiger Roll into the Grand National with the sort of weight O'Leary wanted for him? I don't care what ITV tried to say in all the hype, Red Rum won three proper nationals, got no breaks and took no prisoners.... It was good to see the horse run so well, I like the horse, it's just the associated humans I'm less keen on!

Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Doncaster 13:35:00 [NH H] Class 4 [16.5f] Stks [[7] run]
6/7 Runners rated
82 * 853252 Gilbertina (Bf 3) Drawn 0/7 Filly
Kent Nick 1-6(1) Todd C J 4-18(6) Days : 25
dst jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 3/1 2Fav
WR% = 19.0

Cheltenham 15:05:00 [NH H] Grade 1 [24f] Stks [[15] run]
13/15 Runners rated
122 * 1111721 Paisley Park (IRE) (Bf 2.75) Drawn 0/15 Gelding
Lavelle Miss E C 2-15(4) Coleman A 5-18(12) Days : 89
DST JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 9/4 1Fav
WR% = 35.0

Hexham 15:30:00 [NH C] Class 5 [20f] Hcap [[10] run]
10/10 Runners rated
68 * 3142331 Westend Theatre (IRE) (Bf 3.75) Drawn 0/10 Gelding
Walton Mrs J M 1-2(1) McMenamin Daniel 5-23(8) Days : 9
gng dst JCK
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 9/2 3Fav
WR% = 22.0

Picks:

Dave

 

[Chesham]

Well done again davejb

 

[davejb]

Not that great to be honest Chesham - but the latest process is doing okay so far, I can't expect non stop winners and there've been a few recently.
Dave

 

[pete]

I can't expect non stop winners

 

[davejb]

Another pretty lifeless day really for the ratings, and another bloody good one for Rachel Blackmore - I can't help feeling sorry for the chap who didn't get the 5th leg of his ante post accumulator up, he got a good wad of cash back thankfully but he'll still go through life thinking about Envoi Allen as the one that got away.... and to be honest after landing legs 1-4 you'd not be expecting Envoi Allen to be the one that let you down, would you? It does tend to reinforce my point the other day about odds on shots over the jumps being a higher risk than the odds reflect i suppose, but I'd rather the horse had run as expected even if I didn't have a penny on him.

He did crash me out of the ITV7 mind, but then again the other 6 losers were always going to hamper my chances of a major payout.

Heigh ho, off we go then,
Report for : 17/03/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/9 Odds: 5.0 (Return: 6.0)
Mkt filter 1/5 Odds: 5.0 (Return: 6.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/6 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/6 Odds: 5.0 (Return: 6.0)
Mkt filter 1/4 Odds: 5.0 (Return: 6.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/13 Odds: 0.14 1.5 0.25 (Return: 4.89)
Mkt filter 3/5 Odds: 0.14 1.5 0.25 (Return: 4.89)

Total Out = 34 Total return (raw) = 16.89
Total wins: 5 / 34
List of winners:
Lin 13:30:00 Hey Ho Lets Go 6.0 <- I just said that?!
Hun 12:35:00 Solwara One (IRE) 1.14
Hun 13:10:00 Lord Sparky 6.0
Che 13:20:00 Bob Olinger (IRE) 2.5
Che 13:55:00 Monkfish (IRE) 1.25

Today's selections ended up as two bets, Gibertina won at 11/10 but Paisley Park ran out of ooomph and could only manage third, so a 0.1 profit, not for the first time.

Picks - a poor day, 6 horses and a sole winner right at the end, at 11/10.

Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Cheltenham 14:30:00 [NH H] Grade 1 [24f] Stks [[17] run]
17/17 Runners rated
118 * 132313 Stattler (IRE) (Bf 5) Drawn 0/17 Gelding
Mullins W P 9-54(13) Townend P 6-22(14) Days : 41
JCK
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 9/2 1Fav
WR% = 35.0

Fakenham 14:55:00 [NH H] Class 4 [20f] Hcap [[9] run]
8/9 Runners rated
70 * 47P0112 Mr Jack (IRE) (Bf 8) Drawn 0/9 Gelding
Irvine Andy 1-12(3) Houlihan Niall F 0-7(1) Days : 19
dst JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/2 3Fav
WR% = 17.0

Just the one for tomorrow there then.

Picks list:

Dave

 

[davejb]

Slightly better this time round -
Report for : 18/03/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/8 Odds: 1.1 (Return: 2.1)
Mkt filter 1/5 Odds: 1.1 (Return: 2.1)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/13 Odds: 4.0 3.0 (Return: 9.0)
Mkt filter 1/6 Odds: 3.0 (Return: 4.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/10 Odds: 1.1 14.0 1.38 5.0 (Return: 25.48)
Mkt filter 2/3 Odds: 1.1 1.38 (Return: 4.48)

Total Out = 33 Total return (raw) = 36.58
Total wins: 7 / 33
List of winners:
Che 20:25:00 Iconic Belle 2.1
Hex 12:40:00 Red Reminder 5.0
Don 13:35:00 Gilbertina 2.1
Hex 13:45:00 Jante Law 15.0
Don 14:10:00 Topofthecotswolds (IRE) 2.38
Che 16:15:00 Telmesomethinggirl (IRE) 6.0
Che 16:50:00 Mount Ida (IRE) 4.0

Not a lot of profit, but anything is okay in the end.
Selections today - only the one bet, came nowhere - as luck would have it the no bet handicap selection won at 3/1.

Picks - onew NR so seven bets in the end, 3 won at 2/1, 6/5 and 15/8 giving a profit of 1.08 pts - the win rate has now dipped below 40% and is sitting on 38% with profits down to 25% or so. Most of that damage was done yesterday at Chelmsford. I am trying to keep an eye on tracks that don't deliver, it might in the end help me spot a problem with my standard times, although I think I am going to have to write a fairly complex program to try to track that, along the lines of 'where did the top rated runner get their rating awarded that was used to get this race wrong?' and see if any particular track(s) seem to do poorly - this will have to include a check on runners that are top rated and go on to win, so I can see a sort of win-lose ratio for each track and look for bumps in the data. Not an easy thing to write i suspect.....

Does anyone make use of the cards or EPS charts? It seems to me that very few people do (if any) and I'll stop posting them if they aren't wanted.... as a few seem to be using the ratings I'll keep them going of course.


Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Fontwell 12:30:00 [NH H] Class 4 [18f] Stks [[11] run]
7/11 Runners rated
93 * 0032852 Forever Des Long (FR) (Bf 2.1) Drawn 0/11 Gelding
Hobbs P J 1-24(3) Houlihan Sean M 0-22(3) Days : 24
or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 6/5 1Fav
WR% = 30.0

Newcastle AW 14:35:00 [NH H] Class 4 [20.5f] Hcap [[13] run]
11/13 Runners rated
90 * 1284771 Sheriff Garrett (IRE) (Bf 5) Drawn 0/13 Gelding
Easterby T D 0-7(1) Hamilton Jamie 2-18(5) Days : 32
JCK
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/1 3Fav
WR% = 19.0

Thurles 14:50:00 [NH H] [24f] Stks [[10] run]
7/10 Runners rated
99 * 6112132 Unexpected Depth (IRE) (Bf 2.5) Drawn 0/10 Gelding
McKiernan Oliver 3-12(0) Browne Barry 2-14(3) Days : 41
gng DST jck
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET Evs 1Fav
WR% = 20.0

Thurles 15:25:00 [NH H] [24f] Hcap [[16] run]
17/19 Runners rated
79 * F000422 Mister Butler (IRE) (Bf 999) Drawn 0/16 Gelding
Burns R P 0-0(0) 0-0(0) Days : 21
gng or
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 6/5 1Fav
WR% = 14.0

Kempton AW 15:50:00 [NH H] Class 4 [21f] Stks [[7] run]
4/7 Runners rated
88 * 351P3 Jeremy Pass (IRE) (Bf 3) Drawn 0/7 Gelding
Nicholls P F 4-38(8) Frost Bryony 3-24(6) Days : 24
DST
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/8 1Fav
WR% = 16.0

Fontwell 15:55:00 [NH H] Class 4 [19.5f] Hcap [[8] run]
7/8 Runners rated
77 * 62P3001 Coal Stock (IRE) (Bf 6) Drawn 0/8 Gelding
Mitchell Nick 1-5(1) Nailor Jordan 5-19(7) Days : 16
GNG DST JCK
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/1 2Fav
WR% = 22.0

Uttoxeter 16:10:00 [NH H] Class 4 [20f] Stks [[11] run]
4/11 Runners rated
92 * 32142 The Edgar Wallace (IRE) (Bf 4) Drawn 0/11 Gelding
Bailey K C 4-31(6) Bass David 4-26(8) Days : 50
gng dst jck
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/2 3Fav
WR% = 24.0

Newcastle AW 16:55:00 [NH C] Class 5 [23.5f] Hcap [[11] run]
10/11 Runners rated
76 * 1305P32 Spirit Of Hale (IRE) (Bf 5.5) Drawn 0/11 Gelding
Candlish Jennie 1-11(2) Quinlan Sean 5-36(13) Days : 23
jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 9/2 3Fav
WR% = 19.0


Picks list:

Dave

 

[pete]

davejb , I no longer use the eps charts, I have moved away from pace handicapping for the time being. Thanks for implementing them when you did, the method I was using them for did not pan out.

 

[davejb]

Thanks for the reply pete - I just like to keep things tidy and if I'm the only one who ever uses the full cards and eps charts then there's no point posting them.
Dave

 

[davejb]

Dull day again, I can never remember which one I'm meant to be on - is it a swing or a roundabout?
Report for : 19/03/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/18 Odds: 1.2 1.88 (Return: 5.08)
Mkt filter 2/8 Odds: 1.2 1.88 (Return: 5.08)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/8 Odds: 1.88 1.0 (Return: 4.88)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/6 Odds: 3.0 (Return: 4.0)
Mkt filter 1/5 Odds: 3.0 (Return: 4.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/8 Odds: 2.0 3.33 (Return: 7.33)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 3.33 (Return: 4.33)

Total Out = 40 Total return (raw) = 21.29
Total wins: 7 / 40
List of winners:
Lin 15:20:00 Great Esteem (IRE) 2.2
Lin 16:30:00 Mohaafeth (IRE) 2.88
Sou 18:15:00 Native Silver 2.88
Sou 18:45:00 If You Dare 2.0
Che 13:20:00 Quilixios 3.0
Fak 13:45:00 Olympic Conqueror (IRE) 4.33
Fak 14:55:00 Mr Jack (IRE) 4.0

Only one bet in the selections today won, at 15/8, the other three lost. Out of 4 handicaps one won, at 12/1....sheesh.

Nought from three for the picks.

Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Curragh 14:30:00 [Flat] [7f] Stks [[20] run]
8/23 Runners rated
78 * 82434 Giuliana (GER) (Bf 4) Drawn 1/20 Filly
Harrington Mrs John 4-24(3) Foley Shane 4-16(7) Days : 140 !!! ALERT !!!
dst jck
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
Flat non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 3/1 2Fav
WR% = 6 0

Downpatrick 16:52:00 [NH C] [23.5f] Stks [[13] run]
6/16 Runners rated
70 * 952P222 Saint Benedict (IRE) (Bf 2.38) Drawn 0/13 Gelding
Bolger E 0-7(2) Swan H C 1-5(2) Days : 10
jck or
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 13/8 1Fav
WR% = rtgs

Picks:

Just the one.
I'm only posting the ratings tonight, and from now on - the full card and EPS charts are available any time anyone wants them to be added back on.
Dave

 

[davejb]

A poor day for picks and selection sadly, yesterdays' ratings were okay though.
Report for : 20/03/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/6 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 4/21 Odds: 4.0 12.0 5.5 8.5 (Return: 34.0)
Mkt filter 2/10 Odds: 4.0 12.0 (Return: 18.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/16 Odds: 4.0 14.0 1.88 1.25 (Return: 25.13)
Mkt filter 2/4 Odds: 4.0 1.25 (Return: 7.25)

Total Out = 45 Total return (raw) = 59.13
Total wins: 8 / 45
List of winners:
Utt 13:50:00 Saint Dalina (FR) 5.0
Thu 14:15:00 Sheshoon Sonny (FR) 5.0
Fon 15:55:00 Coal Stock (IRE) 13.0
Thu 16:00:00 Im A Game Changer (IRE) 15.0
Utt 16:10:00 The Edgar Wallace (IRE) 2.88
Wex 16:15:00 Eyre Square (IRE) 2.25
Kem 16:25:00 Peur De Rien (FR) 6.5
Utt 16:45:00 Legendary Rhythm 9.5

A profit again, not consistent I know but it is happening more often than it has in the past.
Selections - well, there were only two and neither did anything. The sole pick lost as well.


Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Southwell AW 13:00:00 [NH C] Class 4 [16.5f] Hcap [[6] run]
6/6 Runners rated
79 * 324P424 Commis Doffice (FR) (Bf 2.5) Drawn 0/6 Gelding
Williams Miss Venetia 6-27(5) Deutsch Charlie 5-22(9) Days : 33
dst or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/4 1Fav
WR% = 23.0

Southwell AW 14:03:00 [NH H] Class 4 [16.5f] Hcap [[11] run]
11/11 Runners rated
89 * 5121504 Island Nation (IRE) (Bf 7) Drawn 0/11 Gelding
Murphy Olly 3-28(7) England David 0-12(2) Days : 29
OR
Passes: Stable Odds
Fails: Form
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 3/1 2Fav
WR% = 23.0

Kelso 14:10:00 [NH H] Class 4 [26f] Hcap [[10] run]
9/10 Runners rated
118 * P431P31 Storm Nelson (IRE) (Bf 3.75) Drawn 0/10 Gelding
Thomson A M 2-12(5) Mania Ryan 6-33(17) Days : 21
OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 15/8 1Fav
WR% = 14.0

Plumpton 14:18:00 [NH C] Class 3 [26f] Hcap [[3] run]
3/3 Runners rated
113 * 6442222 Faustinovick (Bf 2.2) Drawn 0/3 Gelding
Tizzard C L 4-36(10) Cobden Harry 6-47(18) Days : 14
gng jck
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 6/5 1Fav
WR% = 18.0

Navan 14:25:00 [NH H] [16f] Stks [[14] run]
4/14 Runners rated
56 * 7154267 Toughari (IRE) (Bf 5) Drawn 0/14 Gelding
Mullins Thomas 1-3(0) OKeeffe Sean F 3-23(7) Days : 22
dst OR
Passes: Stable Odds
Fails: Form
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/2 3Fav
WR% = 16.0

Southwell AW 14:33:00 [NH H] Class 4 [21f] Stks [[5] run]
3/5 Runners rated
93 * 322110 Cadzand (IRE) (Bf 2.38) Drawn 0/5 Gelding
Skelton Daniel 9-56(17) Skelton Harry 11-62(29) Days : 29
GNG JCK
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 4/5 1Fav
WR% = 14.0

Plumpton 14:48:00 [NH H] Class 4 [25.5f] Hcap [[5] run]
5/5 Runners rated
85 * 6132326 Jungle Prose (IRE) (Bf 3) Drawn 0/5 Mare
Gifford N J 0-11(1) Davies James 0-28(4) Days : 21
JCK or
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/4 1Fav
WR% = 18.0

Kelso 15:10:00 [NH H] Class 4 [16.5f] Stks [[13] run]
8/13 Runners rated
88 * F3321 Word Has It (IRE) (Bf 1.44) Drawn 0/13 Gelding
McCain Jnr D 3-13(2) Hughes Brian 12-68(30) Days : 28
DST JCK
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 2/5 1Fav
WR% = 31.0

Southwell AW 15:33:00 [NH H] Class 5 [25f] Hcap [[16] run]
14/16 Runners rated
74 * 9630U55 Another Frontier (IRE) (Bf 11) Drawn 0/16 Gelding
Twiston-Davies N A 5-36(3) Nailor Jordan 6-21(8) Days : 25
Passes: Stable Odds
Fails: Form
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 8/1 4Fav
WR% = 23.0

Navan 16:30:00 [NH H] [16f] Hcap [[13] run]
10/13 Runners rated
83 * 2200091 Five Helmets (IRE) (Bf 5.5) Drawn 0/13 Gelding
Cromwell Gavin Patrick 4-34(4) Maxwell C D 1-13(2) Days : 17
DST or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/2 1Fav
WR% = 0 0

Bit of a long list there, but take out the handicaps and long odds on shots and there's probably only one or two actual bets in that list.

picks list:

Dave

 

[51067]

Morning Davejb

I’d like to thank you for all your hard work posting the cards, I did try the eps cards but I’ve mainly been using the full.xlsx

 

[davejb]

Cheers 51067
the three files are all produced at the same time by my program, all I need to do with them is open each one up in Excel macro spreadsheets I compiled and press a couple of keys - the macros do all the reformatting and colouring in and stuff to make it all look nice. So for me the work of doing the three files rather than just one is negligible - no point learning to program then doing stuff yourself, is there? I stopped posting the cards and eps chart simply because it looks like nobody is using them at all, and there's no point uploading them and taking up forum web space if they are redundant - I still make them up for my own use.

Thanks for the feedback though, it helps to know what others want to see.
Dave

 

[davejb]

Mixed bag kind of day -
Report for : 21/03/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/8 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/8 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/3 Odds: 2.25 (Return: 3.25)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 2.25 (Return: 3.25)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/12 Odds: 2.25 9.0 3.33 (Return: 17.58)
Mkt filter 2/6 Odds: 2.25 3.33 (Return: 7.58)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/9 Odds: 1.63 2.75 (Return: 6.38)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 32 Total return (raw) = 27.21
Total wins: 6 / 32
List of winners:
Cur 15:35:00 Horoscope (IRE) 3.25
Dow 14:10:00 Stranger Danger (IRE) 2.63
Che 14:35:00 Landofsmiles (IRE) 3.25
Che 15:10:00 The Domino Effect (IRE) 3.75
Car 15:25:00 Smooth Stepper 10.0
Car 16:30:00 Realm Keeper (USA) 4.33

Not miles out, I guess.
Today's selections - 1 bet won 10/11, the 2/11 shot also won but who wants odds like that? So 1/1 or 2/2 as you like. There were 3 handicaps and one winner at 5/1 for those interested.

The picks amounted to that one 2/11 winner - so it adds to the stats a bit, I didn't bet on it.

Selections tomorrow:

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Taunton 14:12:00 [NH H] Class 4 [16.5f] Stks [[14] run]
7/14 Runners rated
79 * 54114 Defining Battle (IRE) (Bf 3.25) Drawn 0/14 Gelding
Skelton Daniel 5-52(18) Skelton Harry 10-60(27) Days : 30

Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 13/8 1Fav
WR% = 20.0

Taunton 14:42:00 [NH H] Class 4 [19f] Stks [[12] run]
9/12 Runners rated
88 * 32552 Grandads Cottage (IRE) (Bf 2.5) Drawn 0/12 Gelding
Murphy Olly 3-28(6) Skelton Harry 10-60(27) Days : 19
dst
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 4/6 1Fav
WR% = 20.0

Wetherby 15:55:00 [NH C] Class 4 [20f] Hcap [[11] run]
10/11 Runners rated
81 * 4P65P51 Roxboro Road (IRE) (Bf 5) Drawn 0/11 Gelding
Haslam B M R 1-5(0) Cawley A P 0-6(2) Days : 20
DST JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 3/1 2Fav
WR% = 10.0

Clonmel 17:05:00 [NH C] [20f] Stks [[6] run]
5/6 Runners rated
106 * 5020264 Robin Des Foret (IRE) (Bf 2) Drawn 0/6 Gelding
Mullins W P 6-73(19) Townend P 6-32(19) Days : 152 !!! ALERT !!!
Passes: Stable Odds
Fails: Form
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 4/5 1Fav
WR% = 27.0

Clonmel 17:35:00 [NH F] [18.5f] Stks [[12] run]
4/12 Runners rated
75 * 3423 Fourneux Disanka (FR) (Bf 3.5) Drawn 0/12 Gelding
Foster Mrs Denise 13-73(14) Codd Mr J J 2-18(8) Days : 23
gng or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 3/1 2Fav
WR% = 27.0

A couple there at least by the look of things, depends on the odds.

No picks tomorrow - they must be having a day off! Actually with no AW racing that leaves the NH favourites, and they usually crop up a lot less
often, so no real surprise I guess.

Dave

 

[Chesham]

Well done davejb

 

[davejb]

Report for : 22/03/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/14 Odds: 1.25 5.0 2.25 (Return: 11.5)
Mkt filter 2/10 Odds: 1.25 5.0 (Return: 8.25)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/10 Odds: 0.91 2.0 0.18 (Return: 6.09)
Mkt filter 3/3 Odds: 0.91 2.0 0.18 (Return: 6.09)

Total Out = 24 Total return (raw) = 17.59
Total wins: 6 / 24
List of winners:
Sou 13:00:00 Commis Doffice (FR) 2.25
Sou 14:33:00 Cadzand (IRE) 1.91
Nav 14:55:00 Coventry (IRE) 3.0
Kel 15:10:00 Word Has It (IRE) 1.18
Nav 16:30:00 Five Helmets (IRE) 6.0
Kel 16:40:00 Chanting Hill (IRE) 3.25

Again a bit under the bar, but doing a lot better than with the old ratings. (They scored 4/24 for 8.34, for interest).

The selections did okay again today, even if I considered most of them no bets - 2nd, W4/7 (so no bet), W7/2 (Hcap - no bet!), W8/13 no bet, Unplaced... they weren't my idea of bets, but 3 from 5 won so I guess i can't say they didn't try!

There were no picks today for a change. Tomorrow is a different story....

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Haydock 13:30:00 [NH C] Class 3 [22f] Hcap [[7] run]
7/7 Runners rated
103 * P431742 Keep Rolling (IRE) (Bf 4.5) Drawn 0/7 Gelding
Hobbs P J 1-29(7) Nolan Michael G 0-14(2) Days : 27
gng
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 3/1 1Fav
WR% = 5.0

Haydock 14:02:00 [NH H] Class 3 [19f] Hcap [[8] run]
7/8 Runners rated
88 * P422P13 Ey Up Rocky (Bf 5) Drawn 0/8 Gelding
ONeill Jonjo 3-27(4) ONeill Jonjo (Jr) 1-18(2) Days : 28
jck
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 3/1 2Fav
WR% = 5.0

Market Rasen 16:05:00 [NH H] Class 3 [23f] Hcap [[9] run]
8/9 Runners rated
92 * 6682F12 Fawsley Spirit (IRE) (Bf 3.25) Drawn 0/9 Gelding
Pauling Ben 0-25(6) Morgan Luca 0-8(3) Days : 32
DST JCK
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/4 1Fav
WR% = 9.0

Three, all handicaps.... be worth seeing how they get on though.

Picks - so I do get to put a tiny bit on....


Oh what a shame my wife and I can't go to Haydock tomorrow - the weather here isn't too bad, and it'd be lovely to get a jumps day in before the flat starts this weekend - my wife just suggested the pie and peas outlet under one of the stands would probably be something I'd make a beeline for, she said 'I couldn't eat a whole one' to which I replied 'neither can I. I don't get the opportunity' - oh well, at least she doesn't 'share' my pint when I'm there.....

Dave
Dave

 

[davejb]

Report for : 23/03/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/16 Odds: 3.5 5.0 (Return: 10.5)
Mkt filter 2/11 Odds: 3.5 5.0 (Return: 10.5)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/14 Odds: 1.0 1.38 0.57 0.62 (Return: 7.57)
Mkt filter 2/7 Odds: 0.57 0.62 (Return: 3.19)

Total Out = 30 Total return (raw) = 18.07
Total wins: 6 / 30
List of winners:
Hun 14:05:00 Bellatrixsa (IRE) 2.0
Wet 14:20:00 Marown (IRE) 2.38
Tau 14:42:00 Grandads Cottage (IRE) 1.57
Wet 15:55:00 Roxboro Road (IRE) 4.5
Tau 16:45:00 Tactical Manoeuvre (IRE) 6.0
Clo 17:05:00 Robin Des Foret (IRE) 1.62

Naaah, that's no use.
Today's selections were all no bets due to being in handicaps, one of the three won at 85/40 - I'd have bet on that had i gone to Haydock!
Picks - 3 bets, W4/5, 2nd, W2/9 - my Mrs got 6/4 on Fable from Paddy Power in the morning somehow, I bet they're fuming, that's 15p she took them for. Mr Glass won at 2/9, having been 1/4 - 1/5 at the open - Betfair gave me a boost up to 8/11 at lunchtime - my wife gets into her phone bets a lot earlier in the day than I do - which looks quite generous. Not a major winning day then, although a little in profit, we need some AW action in the sprints to get the better odds bets going again.


Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Cork 14:00:00 [NH H] [16f] Stks [[16] run]
5/17 Runners rated
72 * 0494 Roma Delight (USA) (Bf 6) Drawn 0/16 Filly
Walsh T M 2-7(3) OCallaghan Shane 0-2(0) Days : 84
Passes: Stable Odds
Fails: Form
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/1 3Fav
WR% = 10.0

Cork 15:00:00 [NH H] [20f] Stks [[16] run]
9/19 Runners rated
59 * 87P38 Glentruan (IRE) (Bf 26) Drawn 0/16 Gelding
Neville Patrick 0-0(0) Noonan G B 1-6(2) Days : 18
dst jck or
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 9/2 2Fav
WR% = 10.0

Cork 16:05:00 [NH H] [20f] Hcap [[16] run]
15/19 Runners rated
64 * 7200P02 Deealli (IRE) (Bf 9) Drawn 0/16 Gelding
Fahey Mark 0-4(1) Doyle R A 1-17(2) Days : 8
dst or
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 13/2 3Fav
WR% = 11.0

Cork 16:35:00 [NH H] [24f] Hcap [[11] run]
11/11 Runners rated
98 * P075533 Sweet Sting (IRE) (Bf 17) Drawn 0/11 Mare
Bowe Michael J 0-3(2) Quirke Mr C M 0-3(2) Days : 5
DST jck or
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 9/2 2Fav
WR% = 11.0

Cork 17:05:00 [NH H] [20f] Hcap [[16] run]
13/19 Runners rated
75 * 8461B11 Hilltop Supreme (IRE) (Bf 5) Drawn 0/16 Gelding
Fitzgerald D E 0-3(1) Murphy Miss R 1-1(1) Days : 16
DST OR
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/1 2Fav
WR% = 11.0

- Rather a flurry for Cork there then, so total disaster or almost going through the card are both possibilities I guess.....

Tomorrow's picks - note that the third one was a runner (and a bet) today, he's the one that came 2nd, and must surely be unlikely to actually run tomorrow. If they do run the horse then it's up to you whether you think they'll be up to a second race in 24 hrs.



Dave

 

[Chesham]

Well done davejb

 

[davejb]

Report for : 24/03/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/17 Odds: 2.13 3.33 1.0 (Return: 9.46)
Mkt filter 3/11 Odds: 2.13 3.33 1.0 (Return: 9.46)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/10 Odds: 0.8 0.1 0.22 3.5 (Return: 8.62)
Mkt filter 2/3 Odds: 0.1 3.5 (Return: 5.6)

Total Out = 27 Total return (raw) = 18.08
Total wins: 7 / 27
List of winners:
Hay 13:00:00 Fable (FR) 1.8
Hay 14:02:00 Ey Up Rocky 3.13
Her 14:10:00 Real Stone 1.1
Mar 14:20:00 Made For You 4.33
Mar 14:55:00 Kap Auteuil (FR) 2.0
Hay 15:47:00 Mr Glass (IRE) 1.22
Tip 16:15:00 Broomfield Hall (IRE) 4.5

Nope, still not good enough.

Selections today - a 5th and a 6/1 winner, so a decent day there. The handicaps threw up two nowheres and a 9/1 winner.

The picks were a bit frustrating really, Quinta Do Mar was a non runner as expected, but then Whoshotthesheriff (4/5 favourite when i backed him) was withdrawn due to the going, which left the long odds on shot Dargiannini (did I spell that right?) to win at 2/9 as the only one left.... no point backing at that price, so for my picks a blank day really with nothing much changing except the 2/9 win means the win rate staying up around 40% but the ROI dropping even further - I think it's about 118% now. Okay, it's not losing, but with no longer priced jobs running for a while it means the actual profit as a proportion of stakes drops.

I think the handicaps in the selections list have regained their efficacy, to some extent, so if I were actually backing them I'd be including handicap bets. I'm actually backing the picks list entries, but not the ones at really short odds... and I'm not betting very much on each one!


Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Musselburgh 13:55:00 [NH H] Class 3 [16.5f] Stks [[7] run]
6/7 Runners rated
77 * 1412314 Mackenberg (GER) (Bf 2.5) Drawn 0/7 Gelding
McCain Jnr D 3-16(1) Hughes Brian 13-61(28) Days : 27
GNG DST JCK or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 8/13 1Fav
WR% = 32.0

Musselburgh 14:30:00 [NH H] Class 2 [16.5f] Hcap [[9] run]
9/9 Runners rated
78 * 4141231 Breguet Boy (IRE) (Bf 4.5) Drawn 0/9 Gelding
Dalgleish Keith 0-1(1) McMenamin Daniel 6-26(9) Days : 48
GNG OR
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 9/2 3Fav
WR% = 14.0

So handicaps are back in, let's see how they do over the next few days to see if that was a good call or not.



I wish the flat would sort of fast forward now, the problem is you get the early season form - eventually - sorted to a point, by which time the early summer stuff starts making the early performers look less sorted than you'd hoped, then you get midsummer and - weather willing - you maybe find July goes okay and you think you've cracked it, only for a wet August to turn it all upside down again.... to me the flat bounces around more than the jumps, and I hate going into the new season with no turf form since last backend to look at. Oh, and to make it even harder you get 140 handicappers charging like the Scots Greys at Waterloo to start the ball rolling.... okay, maybe not quite 140, but it looks like 140 of them at the furlong to go marker.

Dave

 

[davejb]

Any day now I'll be hitting page 150 of this thread - the party to celebrate this will be socially distanced of course, I have opened a beer and am drinking it at the computer screen (or monitor as we early computer geeks still think of them) so hopefully you'll all be able to enjoy a sort of web based beer experience. It's 'Helles Schlenferla Lagerbier' from Brauerei Heller Bamberg. as best I can read the somewhat ornate label, and has a very distinctive flavour to put it mildly. This is another way of saying 'one of these will be enough, maybe I'll go for the Guiness for the next drink'.

Report for : 25/03/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 5/16 Odds: 3.5 4.0 7.0 1.5 9.0 (Return: 30.0)
Mkt filter 5/11 Odds: 3.5 4.0 7.0 1.5 9.0 (Return: 30.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 5/12 Odds: 0.33 4.0 0.22 6.0 1.25 (Return: 16.8)
Mkt filter 3/3 Odds: 0.33 0.22 1.25 (Return: 4.8)

Total Out = 28 Total return (raw) = 46.8
Total wins: 10 / 28
List of winners:
Che 13:00:00 Galice Macalo (FR) 1.33
Che 13:35:00 Major Dundee (IRE) 5.0
Che 14:07:00 Supreme Escape (IRE) 4.5
Lud 14:15:00 Rock On Rocco (IRE) 5.0
Sed 14:22:00 Dargiannini (IRE) 1.22
Che 14:37:00 Arthurs Reuben 8.0
Cor 15:00:00 Glentruan (IRE) 7.0
Lud 15:15:00 Checkitout (IRE) 2.5
Cor 15:30:00 Takarengo (IRE) 2.25
Cor 17:05:00 Hilltop Supreme (IRE) 10.0

Okay, got the correct report done - a much better report than I got by repeating yesterday's one!

Today's two selections managed a 2nd place (at 2/5f yikes) between them, unemcumbered by having any of my cash on board I am pleased to say. Sadly the picks are showing 0, 3rd, 0 as I type this and i did have a small bet on each of them, so I am hoping for at least one of the rest to come up trumps.
Last trio of picks were 0, W7/2 and W11/4 so we had to sit through 4 losers and most of the day to gain our profit, but 6 out 8.25 back at SP is okay for when the fat lady sings. I got them at 4/1 and 3/1 for a slightly better profit I am pleased to say.... it's usually my wife who does that.


Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Kelso 13:00:00 [NH C] Class 4 [17.5f] Hcap [[5] run]
4/5 Runners rated
78 * 5668241 Fourth Of July (IRE) (Bf 2.75) Drawn 0/5 Gelding
Smith R Michael 0-5(1) Mania Ryan 3-24(14) Days : 21
GNG DST JCK
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 15/8 1Fav
WR% = 16.0

Kelso 14:40:00 [NH H] Class 2 [16.5f] Hcap [[6] run]
5/6 Runners rated
134 * 3413412 Across The Line (IRE) (Bf 2.75) Drawn 0/6 Gelding
Skelton Daniel 10-53(17) Skelton Harry 13-63(34) Days : 31
GNG DST JCK or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/4 1Fav
WR% = 16.0

Picks:


As that final race in the picks has two selections in it my usual approach currently would be to back both provided they are both odds against, otherwise to ignore both - trying to pick one above the other seldom seems to work out that well.

For anyone interested, the picks list so far since it started on this thread has had 117 runners, 45 winners and returned 138.23 to 1pt level stakes, giving a win rate of a shade over 38% and ROI of 118%. The ROI is disappointing, frankly, but due to there being a bit of a flurry of odds on jobs at very short odds, so even when they win the ROI drops. Here's hoping for some longer odds - as long as they still win of course.

Originally I mistrusted the AW handicappers over 5-7f, and was that a mistake or what. The 5-7f runners I have been keeping tally on, and over the same period there have been 33 runners with 12 winners and a return of 68.48 - that's a win rate of 36%+ and ROI of 207%+ Now on the bonus side these are the picks that have (***) showing in that right most column, so they've been posted on here and have added to the main list profits of course, after that initial 'no bet' period. It would be marvellous if the picks could continue to work on the flat, which we'll find out about over the next month or two. The sprinters are doing better than expected, the main list win rate is good, but the ROI disappointing compared to how the early figures were going, so I'm going to continue with this stuff.... I'm happy that it isn't a complete flash in the pan, but it could still all come a cropper as the flat gets under way. If that happens then I'll probably limit flat bets to the AW picks, but we'll see.

Dave

 

[pete]

For anyone interested, the picks list so far since it started on this thread has had 117 runners, 45 winners and returned 138.23 to 1pt level stakes, giving a win rate of a shade over 38% and ROI of 118%. The ROI is disappointing, frankly, but due to there being a bit of a flurry of odds on jobs at very short odds, so even when they win the ROI drops. Here's hoping for some longer odds - as long as they still win of course.

18% profit is not to be sniffed at, plenty of pro punters would kill for those kinds of numbers davejb .. is that SP? If so BFSP would add a few points too no doubt, very respectable, especially with that kind of strike rate.

Lots of "systems" take a dip in April, I would wait until the end of May before throwing in the towel if things are not initially going the right way for you.