Early days

[davejb]

Report for : 16/02/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/10 Odds: 22.0 (Return: 23.0)
Mkt filter 0/5 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/6 Odds: 1.25 0.25 (Return: 3.5)
Mkt filter 2/2 Odds: 1.25 0.25 (Return: 3.5)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/8 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/5 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/4 Odds: 0.8 (Return: 1.8)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 0.8 (Return: 1.8)

Total Out = 28 Total return (raw) = 28.3
Total wins: 4 / 28
List of winners:
Kem 15:25:00 Kestenna 2.25
Kem 15:55:00 Tommy Rock (IRE) 23.0
New 17:40:00 Flyin High 1.25
Car 14:05:00 Dreams Of Home (IRE) 1.8

A tiny margin of victory I guess.
Today's bet came 2nd - had quite a few of them, it'd almost be worth trying to arrange with the bookies to pay out on 23nds instead of winners.....


Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Leicester 12:30:00 [NH C] Class 4 [23f] Hcap [[8] run]
6/8 Runners rated
83 * 2963121 Overworkdunderpaid (IRE) (Bf 4) Drawn 0/8 Gelding
Morgan Miss Laura 1-6(1) Bewley Callum 1-15(2) Days : 15
GNG JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 100/30 2Fav
WR% = 8.0

Leicester 13:00:00 [NH C] Class 5 [20.5f] Hcap [[9] run]
5/9 Runners rated
95 * 5457F93 Bignorm (IRE) (Bf 5) Drawn 0/9 Gelding
Gasson Mrs Rosemary 0-0(0) Poste Ben J 0-11(2) Days : 67
jck or
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/1 3Fav
WR% = 8.0

Leicester 13:30:00 [NH C] Class 5 [16f] Hcap [[7] run]
5/7 Runners rated
83 * 4564621 En Coeur (FR) (Bf 2.63) Drawn 0/7 Gelding
Mullins J W 1-7(1) Jones Kevin 1-8(3) Days : 24

Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/4 1Fav
WR% = 8.0

Sandown 15:05:00 [NH C] Class 3 [20.5f] Hcap [[10] run]
9/10 Runners rated
100 * 2381431 Mister Murchan (IRE) (Bf 5) Drawn 0/10 Gelding
Rowe R 0-4(2) Houlihan Niall F 0-8(3) Days : 28
gng DST JCK
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 4/1 2Fav
WR% = 21.0

Fontwell 15:58:00 [NH H] Class 5 [20f] Hcap [[16] run]
13/16 Runners rated
67 * 044F562 Kenny George (Bf 7) Drawn 0/16 Gelding
West Miss Sheena 0-1(0) Houlihan Sean M 0-12(2) Days : 35
gng or
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/2 2Fav
WR% = 15.0

Sandown 16:15:00 [NH C] Class 3 [24.5f] Hcap [[11] run]
10/11 Runners rated
115 * 1272236 Bobo Mac (IRE) (Bf 11) Drawn 0/11 Gelding
Symonds Tom 0-4(1) Heskin A P 2-9(6) Days : 40
or
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/1 1Fav
WR% = 21.0

Well, all handicaps then, so no bets. Watch them all go and win or something just to make me look a prat....
Dave

 

[davejb]

Report for : 17/02/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/17 Odds: 2.25 3.0 (Return: 7.25)
Mkt filter 2/12 Odds: 2.25 3.0 (Return: 7.25)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/8 Odds: 3.0 (Return: 4.0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/6 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/6 Odds: 3.5 (Return: 4.5)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 3.5 (Return: 4.5)

Total Out = 37 Total return (raw) = 15.75
Total wins: 4 / 37
List of winners:
Dun 14:20:00 Comin Through (AUS) 4.0
Wol 14:50:00 The Pretty Way 3.25
Dun 18:00:00 Barretstown (IRE) 4.0
Her 13:55:00 Herbiers (FR) 4.5

Oh well, that wasn't a great day was it?
I just happened to catch the last bit of the 1230 at Leicester, as he survived a moment at the last and romped away to win at 3/1, and my mind flew back to that last sentence i typed last night.... I'm not sure 'luckily' is the right word for this, but 'luckily' he was the only winner, with 2 seconds, 2 thirds and a nowhere to follow. Another day not to back handicaps then.

Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Lingfield AW 13:00:00 [AW] Class 5 [8f] Stks [[3] run]
2/3 Runners rated
41 * 2642334 Heaven Forfend (Bf 2.1) Drawn 3/3 Gelding
Bell M L W 1-5(1) Kingscote Richard 3-42(20) Days : 118 !!! ALERT !!!

Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
AW non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 4/5 1Fav
WR% = 18.0

Fakenham 14:12:00 [NH H] Class 5 [16.5f] Hcap [[5] run]
4/6 Runners rated
58 * 8957212 All Good Things (IRE) (Bf 2.38) Drawn 0/5 Gelding
Sheppard M 1-6(2) Sheppard Stan 0-6(1) Days : 15
gng DST JCK or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 2/1 1Fav
WR% = 15.0

Kelso 14:20:00 [NH H] Class 4 [22.5f] Hcap [[11] run]
8/11 Runners rated
89 * 6514311 Olivers Island (IRE) (Bf 4.5) Drawn 0/11 Gelding
Conway Sean 1-3(0) Anderson Mr A 0-7(1) Days : 47
GNG JCK
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 9/4 1Fav
WR% = 10.0

Fakenham 14:42:00 [NH C] Class 5 [16.5f] Hcap [[7] run]
5/7 Runners rated
90 * 65974P2 Kap Auteuil (FR) (Bf 2.75) Drawn 0/7 Gelding
Lawes T 0-2(1) Cannon Tom J 1-14(8) Days : 25
gng dst jck
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 15/8 1Fav
WR% = 15.0

Fakenham 15:42:00 [NH C] Class 3 [22f] Hcap [[10] run]
7/10 Runners rated
101 * 850812 Premiumaccess (IRE) (Bf 8) Drawn 0/10 Gelding
Tizzard C L 2-14(1) Cobden Harry 8-34(13) Days : 29
GNG JCK
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/1 3Fav
WR% = 15.0

Just the one there then, not run for months and probably odds on - sounds enticing i don't think!
Dave

 

[kralken]

Hi Dave just wondered on your list of runners when it says fails stable do you still bet on those runners Thank you

 

[Chesham]

Well Done davejb

 

[davejb]

The information is there for readers to decide on - to me a 'stable' flag matters for some race types but not others, and the decision about that is down to the type of race being run. If you want to know the ones I would bet on you don't need to look at any of those flags etc., as the line that says
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/1 3Fav

for one example contains the info - does it say 'BET' or 'NO BET' - simple as that!

As far as it goes that is the initial filter for me, I only consider the ones where it says BET. Before I would actually bet on a runner I'd look at it's form, I'd be looking at the information on the BET's last few runs, I'd be doing the same for the 2 or 3 horses in the race that I considered to be a threat to the selection, I'd make my mind up then if the horse seemed to have a decent chance. Sometimes I find the selections seem to go through a golden period of a week or two when they're going in time after time - during those spells, once I spot one, I tend to just bang a small bet on every selection that says BET almost willy nilly. By watching how they pan out each day I sometimes decide to hang back, for example I am not backing any of the handicap selections and I have to really like the chance of a non handicap one before I'll consider actually putting money down.

Please note that I only bet small amounts, I am betting WELL within my comfort zone, and I'm always happy to just watch what happens for months at a time if things aren't going well enough, rather than dribble cash away I don't need to. I do not need any income from betting, this is just a hobby. It is my firm belief that the only way to profit from the ratings is to get quite deeply into the form of the runners that have been identified as in with a chance - this could mean sifting through the top rated and chucking out any race where there is another runner who looks dangerous, to considering going with the 2nd or 3rd top if their form suggests a better day at the track for them. Do not be bamboozled by anyone telling you that following their ratings or systems or whatever will help you win at racing, it takes a lot of hard work and most do not make it - it is one of the very worst ways to make profits I can imagine, if money is the goal you are far better off flogging recycled bicycles or something!

Dave

 

[davejb]

Report for : 18/02/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/9 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/5 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/1 Odds: 1.88 (Return: 2.88)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 1.88 (Return: 2.88)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/15 Odds: 3.0 3.0 4.0 (Return: 13.0)
Mkt filter 2/11 Odds: 3.0 4.0 (Return: 9.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/7 Odds: 2.75 5.5 (Return: 10.25)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 32 Total return (raw) = 26.13
Total wins: 6 / 32
List of winners:
Che 18:30:00 Shimmering Dawn (IRE) 2.88
Lei 12:30:00 Overworkdunderpaid (IRE) 4.0
Fon 13:38:00 Golden Boy Grey (FR) 3.75
Lei 14:05:00 The Bay Birch (IRE) 4.0
Fon 14:48:00 Hystery Bere (FR) 6.5
Fon 15:23:00 Cheque En Blanc (FR) 5.0

Annoyingly not quite there eh?

Today's single bet was a no bet due to odds of course, he won at 2/5 and made very few people rich in the process.o5ne of the four handicappers won 13/8, another managed 3rd. My own horse, Asdaa, who I own part of an eyelash of, came 2nd at Southwell after running well - came back at his first challenger and beat them, but then just couldn't quite get back up against the winner. It was a good run, although 1st would have been nicer. (And a bit more profitable). Still, he made just over a grand for that, which means he is earning his keep.

Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Haydock 13:30:00 [NH C] Class 3 [20f] Hcap [[7] run]
6/8 Runners rated
103 * 111312 Marown (IRE) (Bf 3.75) Drawn 0/7 Gelding
Richards N G 0-11(2) Quinlan Sean 1-23(5) Days : 28
gng DST jck or
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/4 2Fav
WR% = 6 0

Wincanton 14:13:00 [NH C] Class 3 [21f] Hcap [[7] run]
6/7 Runners rated
100 * 1216321 Le Cameleon (Bf 3.25) Drawn 0/7 Gelding
Williams Nick 1-5(1) Frost Bryony 1-16(1) Days : 31
GNG dst
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/4 2Fav
WR% = 15.0

Wincanton 15:18:00 [NH H] Grade 2 [15.5f] Stks [[6] run]
5/6 Runners rated
121 * 6132111 Song For Someone (GER) (Bf 2.2) Drawn 0/6 Gelding
Symonds Tom 2-12(2) Coleman A 3-15(8) Days : 70
JCK
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/4 1Fav
WR% = 21.0

Wincanton 16:33:00 [NH C] Class 3 [26f] Hcap [[7] run]
5/7 Runners rated
90 * 5112134 Shantou Flyer (IRE) (Bf 3.25) Drawn 0/7 Gelding
Nicholls P F 7-30(4) Cheleda Angus 1-4(2) Days : 16

Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 15/8 1Fav
WR% = 15.0

Haydock 17:00:00 [NH C] Class 3 [22f] Stks [[11] run]
3/11 Runners rated
74 * 9131P63 The Worlds End (IRE) (Bf 3.75) Drawn 0/11 Gelding
Murphy Olly 2-15(4) Heskin A P 2-14(8) Days : 17
gng jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 9/4 2Fav
WR% = 14.0

Newcastle AW 18:00:00 [AW] Class 6 [8f] Stks [[12] run]
11/12 Runners rated
39 * 5790002 My Sister Jo (Bf 2.88) Drawn 6/12 Filly
Fahey R A 4-21(6) McHugh B 0-7(2) Days : 46
jck
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
AW non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 5/2 1Fav
WR% = 18.0

Newcastle AW 19:00:00 [AW] Class 6 [6f] Stks [[8] run]
7/8 Runners rated
40 * 0364862 Wicklow Warrior (Bf 3.5) Drawn 1/8 Gelding
Niven P D 0-1(1) Sullivan James P 0-11(5) Days : 23
gng dst jck
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
AW non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 11/8 1Fav
WR% = 18.0

Dave

I'm not going through this lot, other than to say that the handicaps are out of course, and The World's End's race only has 3 runners rated so that makes it dodgier than most. The two at Newcastle are not great, low rated horses aren't my favourite angle to go with, and suddenly it looks like I'm, down to Song for Someone to carry my hopes doesn't it! I've been ill for a few days, started getting better but had the Pfizer jab yesterday and it's sort of prolonging the listless feeling I've had all week, so although I'm miles better than I was Sunday night/Monday I still don't feel much like spending any longer in here today.

 

[markfinn]

A

Report for : 18/02/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/9 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/5 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/1 Odds: 1.88 (Return: 2.88)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 1.88 (Return: 2.88)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/15 Odds: 3.0 3.0 4.0 (Return: 13.0)
Mkt filter 2/11 Odds: 3.0 4.0 (Return: 9.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/7 Odds: 2.75 5.5 (Return: 10.25)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 32 Total return (raw) = 26.13
Total wins: 6 / 32
List of winners:
Che 18:30:00 Shimmering Dawn (IRE) 2.88
Lei 12:30:00 Overworkdunderpaid (IRE) 4.0
Fon 13:38:00 Golden Boy Grey (FR) 3.75
Lei 14:05:00 The Bay Birch (IRE) 4.0
Fon 14:48:00 Hystery Bere (FR) 6.5
Fon 15:23:00 Cheque En Blanc (FR) 5.0

Annoyingly not quite there eh?

Today's single bet was a no bet due to odds of course, he won at 2/5 and made very few people rich in the process.o5ne of the four handicappers won 13/8, another managed 3rd. My own horse, Asdaa, who I own part of an eyelash of, came 2nd at Southwell after running well - came back at his first challenger and beat them, but then just couldn't quite get back up against the winner. It was a good run, although 1st would have been nicer. (And a bit more profitable). Still, he made just over a grand for that, which means he is earning his keep.

Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Haydock 13:30:00 [NH C] Class 3 [20f] Hcap [[7] run]
6/8 Runners rated
103 * 111312 Marown (IRE) (Bf 3.75) Drawn 0/7 Gelding
Richards N G 0-11(2) Quinlan Sean 1-23(5) Days : 28
gng DST jck or
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/4 2Fav
WR% = 6 0

Wincanton 14:13:00 [NH C] Class 3 [21f] Hcap [[7] run]
6/7 Runners rated
100 * 1216321 Le Cameleon (Bf 3.25) Drawn 0/7 Gelding
Williams Nick 1-5(1) Frost Bryony 1-16(1) Days : 31
GNG dst
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/4 2Fav
WR% = 15.0

Wincanton 15:18:00 [NH H] Grade 2 [15.5f] Stks [[6] run]
5/6 Runners rated
121 * 6132111 Song For Someone (GER) (Bf 2.2) Drawn 0/6 Gelding
Symonds Tom 2-12(2) Coleman A 3-15(8) Days : 70
JCK
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/4 1Fav
WR% = 21.0

Wincanton 16:33:00 [NH C] Class 3 [26f] Hcap [[7] run]
5/7 Runners rated
90 * 5112134 Shantou Flyer (IRE) (Bf 3.25) Drawn 0/7 Gelding
Nicholls P F 7-30(4) Cheleda Angus 1-4(2) Days : 16

Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 15/8 1Fav
WR% = 15.0

Haydock 17:00:00 [NH C] Class 3 [22f] Stks [[11] run]
3/11 Runners rated
74 * 9131P63 The Worlds End (IRE) (Bf 3.75) Drawn 0/11 Gelding
Murphy Olly 2-15(4) Heskin A P 2-14(8) Days : 17
gng jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 9/4 2Fav
WR% = 14.0

Newcastle AW 18:00:00 [AW] Class 6 [8f] Stks [[12] run]
11/12 Runners rated
39 * 5790002 My Sister Jo (Bf 2.88) Drawn 6/12 Filly
Fahey R A 4-21(6) McHugh B 0-7(2) Days : 46
jck
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
AW non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 5/2 1Fav
WR% = 18.0

Newcastle AW 19:00:00 [AW] Class 6 [6f] Stks [[8] run]
7/8 Runners rated
40 * 0364862 Wicklow Warrior (Bf 3.5) Drawn 1/8 Gelding
Niven P D 0-1(1) Sullivan James P 0-11(5) Days : 23
gng dst jck
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
AW non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 11/8 1Fav
WR% = 18.0

Dave

I'm not going through this lot, other than to say that the handicaps are out of course, and The World's End's race only has 3 runners rated so that makes it dodgier than most. The two at Newcastle are not great, low rated horses aren't my favourite angle to go with, and suddenly it looks like I'm, down to Song for Someone to carry my hopes doesn't it! I've been ill for a few days, started getting better but had the Pfizer jab yesterday and it's sort of prolonging the listless feeling I've had all week, so although I'm miles better than I was Sunday night/Monday I still don't feel much like spending any longer in here today.

A grand report Dave

 

[kralken]

Thank you for you reply appreciate it and its excellent what you do

 

[davejb]

Report for : 19/02/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 4/19 Odds: 2.5 3.5 10.0 4.5 (Return: 24.5)
Mkt filter 3/13 Odds: 2.5 3.5 4.5 (Return: 13.5)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/5 Odds: 0.4 1.75 (Return: 4.15)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/8 Odds: 1.63 5.5 (Return: 9.13)
Mkt filter 1/6 Odds: 1.63 (Return: 2.63)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/6 Odds: 1.25 5.5 (Return: 8.75)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 1.25 (Return: 2.25)

Total Out = 38 Total return (raw) = 46.53
Total wins: 10 / 38
List of winners:
Lin 13:00:00 Heaven Forfend 1.4
Lin 13:30:00 Nortonthorpe Boy 3.5
Lin 14:00:00 Attracted 2.75
Dun 16:00:00 Maggie Thunder (IRE) 4.5
Dun 17:30:00 Big Gossey (IRE) 11.0
Dun 19:30:00 Togoville (IRE) 5.5
Kel 13:20:00 Rockstar Ronnie (IRE) 2.25
Fak 14:42:00 Kap Auteuil (FR) 2.63
Kel 14:50:00 Claud And Goldie (IRE) 6.5
Kel 16:22:00 Kilkishen (IRE) 6.5

That seems to have been a decent day then.
The selections today were fairly drab - of the four bets (no handicaps, so 3 selections ignored) only the last one won, at 5/4. Had one of everything you might say, a winner, a 2nd, a 3rd, and a duck egg.


Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Navan 13:05:00 [NH C] Grade 2 [24f] Stks [[5] run]
5/5 Runners rated
126 * 0924231 Coko Beach (FR) (Bf 2.38) Drawn 0/5 Gelding
Elliott Gordon 5-49(11) Kennedy J W 3-29(13) Days : 24
GNG JCK
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/4 1Fav
WR% = 12.0

Newbury 13:15:00 [NH H] Class 3 [16.5f] Stks [[15] run]
10/15 Runners rated
98 * 4313112 Ahorsewithnoname (Bf 3.75) Drawn 0/15 Mare
Henderson N J 3-21(6) Boinville Nico 3-21(7) Days : 85
dst jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/2 1Fav
WR% = 14.0

Market Rasen 13:30:00 [NH H] Class 4 [21f] Hcap [[14] run]
12/14 Runners rated
81 * 320272 Lady Of The Night (Bf 6) Drawn 0/14 Mare
Bailey K C 4-10(2) Bass David 5-10(6) Days : 66
jck
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 4/6 1Fav
WR% = 10.0

Navan 14:15:00 [NH H] Listed Race [21f] Stks [[11] run]
11/11 Runners rated
100 * 33P2422 Global Equity (IRE) (Bf 5) Drawn 0/11 Mare
OBrien Joseph Patrick 3-36(14) Slevin J J 0-7(3) Days : 14
gng jck
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 2/1 1Fav
WR% = 12.0

Uttoxeter 14:32:00 [NH C] Class 2 [20f] Stks [[4] run]
4/4 Runners rated
101 * 1212F22 Cut The Mustard (FR) (Bf 2.5) Drawn 0/4 Mare
Nicholls P F 6-22(1) Williams Lorcan 0-6(2) Days : 39
gng dst or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 2/1 1Fav
WR% = 23.0

Market Rasen 14:40:00 [NH H] Class 3 [17f] Stks [[11] run]
7/11 Runners rated
81 * 12151 Martello Sky (Bf 4) Drawn 0/11 Mare
Wadham Mrs L 0-6(3) Coleman A 3-17(8) Days : 63
OR
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/4 2Fav
WR% = 55.0

Uttoxeter 15:07:00 [NH H] Class 4 [23.5f] Stks [[7] run]
6/7 Runners rated
87 * 1143324 Happy Hollow (Bf 2.63) Drawn 0/7 Gelding
Candlish Jennie 0-5(2) Quinlan Sean 1-23(5) Days : 44
gng jck
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/4 1Fav
WR% = 23.0


Good lord, where did all that lot come from? Apart from anything else they mostly look okay - the fails: Stable for the last two is probably okay K kralken - neither stable is sending a lot of runners out, and this check is really looking for stables with unplaced runners piling up, as a sort of indication that maybe something in the stable isn't quite right... maybe that the stable has a bit of a bug going round and the horses are all underperforming as a result. Not really an assessment you can make when there's only a handful of runners anyway, and the bracketted figures show placed efforts - 3 placed out of 6 runners for Lucy Wadham and 2 placed from 5 runners for Jennie Candlish, which suggest the horses health is probably not an issue at either.
Dave

 

[mlmrob]

davejb Great work as always but a question

Martello Sky WR55% that's a lot higher than others?

 

[davejb]

That's the current win rate for picks in hurdles, non handicaps, at Market Rasen. Please bear in mind that the ratings only go back to September or so, as they're based on the new standards, so the numbers are pretty small - at Market Rasen there have been something like 2 wins from 20 in Handicaps since restarting with the new ratings, but 6 of the 11 non handicap top rated there have won. It'll be 7/12 now I guess!
Dave

 

[Chesham]

Well done davejb

 

[kralken]

excellent Davejb

 

[davejb]

mlmrob
That'll teach me to answer off the top of my head - I was a little out on how long the ratings went back, for market Rasen the stats so far contain races from Nov 5 and 19, Dec 3 and 30, and Jan 16th. There were 20 handicaps and 11 non handicaps that I had a top rated runner for at those meetings, 6 of the 11 non handicaps and 2 of the 20 handicaps were won by the top rated. Looking at just the hurdles races 12 handicaps with zero wins, 3 from 7 non handicaps - my stats are based across NH, not just the hurdles (my bad, I split data flat/aw/nh, I don't subdivide the NH before counting.... having just double checked the code and seen how fiddly it is I can see why I didn't try to make it any more complicated!).

I'm attaching a small spreadsheet containing the runners in question, I've put a headings line on it so that most of it should be obvious if you want to look it the data I am collecting. The less obvious bits are from columns O to U, which shows what the various flags from the daily card were showing on the day, plus a total score - with 1 for a previous placing, 2 for a win for the flags. X is just a card number, Y and Z the resultant position of the runner and their odds, AB-AE are just a few flag values I have used in the past looking for filtering opportunities.

As per my initial response though, there aren't that many results in the stats yet, so of course every runner can make a big difference percentage wise at the moment, in this case a winner is worth about 3% to the win rate. I expect over time it'll settle down, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the handicaps continue to trail the non handicaps quite badly.
Dave

 

[davejb]

Report for : 20/02/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/10 Odds: 1.5 7.5 (Return: 11.0)
Mkt filter 1/6 Odds: 1.5 (Return: 2.5)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/5 Odds: 1.1 1.25 (Return: 4.35)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 1.25 (Return: 2.25)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/12 Odds: 4.0 8.0 4.5 (Return: 19.5)
Mkt filter 3/8 Odds: 4.0 8.0 4.5 (Return: 19.5)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/11 Odds: 4.5 1.0 (Return: 7.5)
Mkt filter 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 38 Total return (raw) = 42.35
Total wins: 9 / 38
List of winners:
Lin 12:15:00 Cardano (USA) 2.5
Lin 13:26:00 Silent Film 2.1
Lin 15:46:00 Saaheq 8.5
New 19:00:00 Wicklow Warrior 2.25
Hay 14:05:00 Third Wind 5.5
Win 14:48:00 Dentley De Mee (FR) 5.0
Hay 15:14:00 Monmiral (FR) 2.0
Hay 15:50:00 Bushypark (IRE) 9.0
Win 15:58:00 First Lord De Cuet (FR) 5.5

Okay day. To be honest any day I approach break even I consider a good day because the ratings are going on every race without any cherry picking, so the closer to breakeven they get the more chance that any attempt to apply a modicum of thought to the mix ought to stand a good chance of turning a profit.

Today there were 6 runners in the end, with 3 winners at 5/4, 6/4 and 5/2. 2 duck eggs and a 2nd (11/4) So not a bad day overall.

Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Carlisle 12:30:00 [NH H] Class 4 [17.5f] Stks [[12] run]
6/12 Runners rated
92 * 47273 Im So Busy (Bf 3) Drawn 0/12 Gelding
Newland Dr R D P 0-10(2) Edwards Lee 0-6(0) Days : 49
or
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/4 2Fav
WR% = 19.0

Carlisle 13:00:00 [NH H] Class 4 [19.5f] Stks [[9] run]
5/9 Runners rated
77 * 3283133 Ulverston (IRE) (Bf 3.5) Drawn 0/9 Gelding
Candlish Jennie 0-6(2) Quinlan Sean 1-22(6) Days : 55
gng DST JCK
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 2/1 2Fav
WR% = 19.0

Southwell AW 13:45:00 [NH C] Class 3 [20.5f] Hcap [[6] run]
4/6 Runners rated
100 * 1241552 Falco Blitz (IRE) (Bf 3) Drawn 0/6 Gelding
Henderson N J 3-26(9) Boinville Nico 3-22(8) Days : 58
gng dst
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 13/8 1Fav
WR% = 18.0

Southwell AW 14:50:00 [NH H] Class 4 [16f] Stks [[12] run]
7/12 Runners rated
85 * 3332 Yauthym (GER) (Bf 6.5) Drawn 0/12 Mare
OBrien Fergal 3-23(7) Brennan P J 5-23(11) Days : 25
dst jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/1 2Fav
WR% = 11.0

Carlisle 16:10:00 [NH H] Class 5 [25.5f] Hcap [[13] run]
12/14 Runners rated
75 * 3766652 Fame And Hope (IRE) (Bf 5.5) Drawn 0/13 Mare
Boanas Miss G 0-4(0) Hughes Brian 6-36(18) Days : 50
jck
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 4/1 1Fav
WR% = 22.0

At a quick glance there may be two bets there. The two handicaps are out, and Yauthym is going to face a strong odds on favourite, so unless something alters there that'll be another no bet, leaving the first two in the list as possibles.
Dave

 

[mlmrob]

Thanks for your comprehensive reply davejb it really is appreciated.

 

[Chesham]

Hi davejb

Looking at your MRasen Sheet

(If I have interpreted the Columns correctly

8/14 won if they were 1st or 2nd in the Betting Market

 

[davejb]

Chesham
Yes, is the short answer.
It's too early to really draw conclusions about this though I think, because with only 5 meetings worth of stats it's quite possible there's just one of those irregular clumping jobs going on, and the next few meetings will see a downturn - swings and roundabouts as usual. I'm not saying that it's not worth keeping in mind when looking at a race, but it's a bit too early for me to code something to blow trumpets when Market Rasen comes round again. This info is all available for every race in the daily card file after all - up there in the purple block above the runners is the info on the top line alongside the time and course info - for race 1 tomorrow at Carlisle it reads:

Stks rtgs 6/32 19.0%

- which translates as the ratings have scored 6 wins from 32 non handicaps so far. (I suspect you were aware of this bit of info being up there, but for those who didn't, or did know it but hadn't paid it any heed...)

As ever I keep this sort of data going because if you don't know, really know, how you've done in the past then it is very hard to improve.
Dave

 

[Chesham]

Well done with Falco Blitz davejb

 

[davejb]

New system:
Do the opposite of what I suggest

Current returns - 1 bet, + 1.87 pts D)

Dave