Early days

[davejb]

Report for : 08/01/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/11 Odds: 9.0 4.5 2.75 (Return: 19.25)
Mkt filter 2/6 Odds: 9.0 2.75 (Return: 13.75)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/3 Odds: 1.38 (Return: 2.38)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/13 Odds: 1.38 (Return: 2.38)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 27 Total return (raw) = 24.01
Total wins: 5 / 27
List of winners:
Dun 15:55:00 Primo Uomo (IRE) 10.0
Sou 16:15:00 Deep Impression (IRE) 5.5
Dun 17:00:00 Just Brilliant (IRE) 3.75
Dun 18:00:00 Ferrybank 2.38
New 14:10:00 Snookered (IRE) 2.38

Better than expected with two cards of identical NHF races.

No bets today, none tomorrow.

Seems like Glynn ran out of puff - he was up around 5th/6th until around three or four out, I thought it looked like he hit the hurdle but the race report doesn't mention that, whatever it was he pretty much stopped dead at that point as was soon pulled up. Disappointing, but we'll see how he goes on from here.

Dave

 

[davejb]

Report for : 09/01/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/16 Odds: 2.25 (Return: 3.25)
Mkt filter 1/7 Odds: 2.25 (Return: 3.25)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/7 Odds: 1.75 1.38 (Return: 5.13)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 1.38 (Return: 2.38)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/13 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/6 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/10 Odds: 2.5 (Return: 3.5)
Mkt filter 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 46 Total return (raw) = 11.88
Total wins: 4 / 46
List of winners:
Che 13:29:00 Spirit Of May 3.25
Che 16:10:00 Rockett Man 2.75
Che 16:45:00 At Your Service 2.38
Che 13:25:00 Adagio (GER) 3.5

Ho hum.
Tomorrow there is actually a selection -

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Wolverhampton AW 17:45:00 [AW] Class 5 [6f] Stks [[10] run]
10/10 Runners rated
63 * 3232 Night Narcissus (IRE) (Bf 2.5) Drawn 7/10 Filly
Cox C G 1-4(0) Keniry L P 2-24(9) Days : 27
gng dst
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
AW non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET Evs 1Fav
WR% = 23.0


Dunno how exciting I find the above, looks to be one of those races where everyone tries to line up behind somebody else - a bit like when you get a line of school kids none of whom want to be in front.
Dave

 

[davejb]

Report for : 10/01/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/8 Odds: 4.5 6.0 (Return: 12.5)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 6.0 (Return: 7.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/1 Odds: 0.62 (Return: 1.62)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 0.62 (Return: 1.62)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/6 Odds: 6.0 8.0 (Return: 16.0)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 6.0 (Return: 7.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 17 Total return (raw) = 30.12
Total wins: 5 / 17
List of winners:
Sou 13:50:00 Al Suil Eile (FR) 5.5
Sou 14:20:00 Straight Ash (IRE) 7.0
Sou 15:20:00 Action Hero (IRE) 1.62
Exe 14:40:00 Francky Du Berlais (FR) 7.0
Exe 15:40:00 Chloes Court (IRE) 9.0

Oooh, another good day.

Today's sole bet won at 6/5, although there's a 10p rule 4 on that I believe.


Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Wetherby 12:30:00 [NH H] Class 4 [16.5f] Stks [[11] run]
8/11 Runners rated
60 * 3142 Mont Segur (FR) (Bf 1.67) Drawn 0/11 Gelding
Honeyball A J 0-3(0) Dingle Rex 1-12(3) Days : 35
GNG dst jck OR
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 8/13 1Fav
WR% = 36.0

Fairyhouse 13:20:00 [NH H] [16f] Stks [[5] run]
5/5 Runners rated
107 * U11F521 Sizing Pottsie (FR) (Bf 2.5) Drawn 0/5 Gelding
Harrington Mrs John 1-9(0) Kennedy PAddy D 1-13(2) Days : 31
GNG DST JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 10/11 1Fav
WR% = 16.0

Wetherby 13:30:00 [NH H] Class 4 [21f] Stks [[9] run]
5/9 Runners rated
67 * 22263 Onward Route (IRE) (Bf 4) Drawn 0/9 Gelding
Menzies Rebecca 3-20(3) Hughes Brian 9-32(15) Days : 33
gng jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/2 2Fav
WR% = 36.0

Fairyhouse 14:25:00 [NH H] [20f] Stks [[13] run]
8/13 Runners rated
90 * 221732 Julies Stowaway (IRE) (Bf 2.63) Drawn 0/13 Gelding
Mullins Ms Margaret 1-1(0) Mullins D E 2-16(4) Days : 49
GNG jck OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/2 1Fav
WR% = 16.0

Fairyhouse 15:30:00 [NH H] [20f] Hcap [[16] run]
15/17 Runners rated
106 * 6508077 Sweet Will (IRE) (Bf 999) Drawn 0/16 Gelding
Cromwell Gavin Patrick 1-25(3) 0-0(0) Days : 12

Passes: Stable Odds
Fails: Form
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/2 1Fav
WR% = 8.0

Dave

Good few there - be aware that 2 or 3 of the races above don't have ratings for all runners, so perhaps adding a bit of an unknown into the equation. Also worth noting that Wetherby is again playing a bit fast and loose with race distances, with all races adding at least half a furlong to the official distances and four of them adding 200yds - 246yds.

 

[Chesham]

Well done davejb

 

[doomster]

Well done davejb

 

[hedgehog]

Well done davejb

 

[markfinn]

Report for : 10/01/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/8 Odds: 4.5 6.0 (Return: 12.5)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 6.0 (Return: 7.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/1 Odds: 0.62 (Return: 1.62)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 0.62 (Return: 1.62)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/6 Odds: 6.0 8.0 (Return: 16.0)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 6.0 (Return: 7.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 17 Total return (raw) = 30.12
Total wins: 5 / 17
List of winners:
Sou 13:50:00 Al Suil Eile (FR) 5.5
Sou 14:20:00 Straight Ash (IRE) 7.0
Sou 15:20:00 Action Hero (IRE) 1.62
Exe 14:40:00 Francky Du Berlais (FR) 7.0
Exe 15:40:00 Chloes Court (IRE) 9.0

Oooh, another good day.

Today's sole bet won at 6/5, although there's a 10p rule 4 on that I believe.


Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Wetherby 12:30:00 [NH H] Class 4 [16.5f] Stks [[11] run]
8/11 Runners rated
60 * 3142 Mont Segur (FR) (Bf 1.67) Drawn 0/11 Gelding
Honeyball A J 0-3(0) Dingle Rex 1-12(3) Days : 35
GNG dst jck OR
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 8/13 1Fav
WR% = 36.0

Fairyhouse 13:20:00 [NH H] [16f] Stks [[5] run]
5/5 Runners rated
107 * U11F521 Sizing Pottsie (FR) (Bf 2.5) Drawn 0/5 Gelding
Harrington Mrs John 1-9(0) Kennedy PAddy D 1-13(2) Days : 31
GNG DST JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 10/11 1Fav
WR% = 16.0

Wetherby 13:30:00 [NH H] Class 4 [21f] Stks [[9] run]
5/9 Runners rated
67 * 22263 Onward Route (IRE) (Bf 4) Drawn 0/9 Gelding
Menzies Rebecca 3-20(3) Hughes Brian 9-32(15) Days : 33
gng jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/2 2Fav
WR% = 36.0

Fairyhouse 14:25:00 [NH H] [20f] Stks [[13] run]
8/13 Runners rated
90 * 221732 Julies Stowaway (IRE) (Bf 2.63) Drawn 0/13 Gelding
Mullins Ms Margaret 1-1(0) Mullins D E 2-16(4) Days : 49
GNG jck OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/2 1Fav
WR% = 16.0

Fairyhouse 15:30:00 [NH H] [20f] Hcap [[16] run]
15/17 Runners rated
106 * 6508077 Sweet Will (IRE) (Bf 999) Drawn 0/16 Gelding
Cromwell Gavin Patrick 1-25(3) 0-0(0) Days : 12

Passes: Stable Odds
Fails: Form
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/2 1Fav
WR% = 8.0

Dave

Good few there - be aware that 2 or 3 of the races above don't have ratings for all runners, so perhaps adding a bit of an unknown into the equation. Also worth noting that Wetherby is again playing a bit fast and loose with race distances, with all races adding at least half a furlong to the official distances and four of them adding 200yds - 246yds.

Ooooh yes it was Dave 5 winners at good / really good odds 13 points profit

 

[davejb]

...what's this chaps, the IS support choir?
Be darn nice to do that every day, wouldn't it? Mind you, I suspect the bookies wouldn't be offering BOG and free bets for very long if any of us did that....
Dave

 

[davejb]

Report for : 11/01/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/13 Odds: 3.0 3.5 (Return: 8.5)
Mkt filter 2/9 Odds: 3.0 3.5 (Return: 8.5)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/4 Odds: 1.2 (Return: 2.2)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 1.2 (Return: 2.2)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/6 Odds: 1.25 (Return: 2.25)
Mkt filter 1/5 Odds: 1.25 (Return: 2.25)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/6 Odds: 2.75 3.0 (Return: 7.75)
Mkt filter 1/4 Odds: 3.0 (Return: 4.0)

Total Out = 29 Total return (raw) = 20.7
Total wins: 6 / 29
List of winners:
Dun 14:30:00 Stay With Me (IRE) 4.0
Wol 17:15:00 Muay Thai (IRE) 4.5
Wol 17:45:00 Night Narcissus (IRE) 2.2
Her 12:50:00 Ballybegg (IRE) 3.75
Her 14:20:00 Flagrant Delitiep (FR) 2.25
Her 15:50:00 Ballybough Mary (IRE) 4.0

Some nice ones, but not enough sadly.
Today's bets - there were 4 of them (Sizing Pottsie was odds on so ignored). The 1230 was won by an unrated runner who went off at 11/8 jt fav, the 1.30 Onward route came 3rd at 9/2, the second top rated won the 4th race, which just left Sweet Will for the final race, who did not a lot. I suppose with a win rate of 8% an 16% at Fairyhouse I wasn't expecting much, (I never do at Fairyhouse).Mont Segur was looking good in the first, until smacking into three out, and Sizing Pottsie fairly ran away with his race - albeit with a little bit of iffy jumping - but ran out of juice at the last and fell, I can't help thinking his jockey kept the pedal down too much there, as he was 12 lengths or so clear towards the end but looked like he tired very quickly between the last two with the race almost a formality.

So, rotten day there then.


Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Plumpton 13:00:00 [NH H] Class 4 [21f] Stks [[11] run]
7/11 Runners rated
89 * 2113 Here Comes Johny (IRE) (Bf 7) Drawn 0/11 Gelding
Murphy Olly 3-23(7) Stones Lewis 0-4(1) Days : 46
gng DST or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/2 2Fav
WR% = 32.0

Naas 13:20:00 [NH C] [16f] Stks [[4] run]
4/4 Runners rated
124 * 3111 Energumene (FR) (Bf 2.2) Drawn 0/4 Gelding
Mullins W P 6-19(7) Townend P 9-19(13) Days : 54
GNG DST JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/4 1Fav
WR% = 15.0

Leicester 14:40:00 [NH H] Class 3 [15.5f] Hcap [[11] run]
11/11 Runners rated
94 * 3511222 Oscars Leader (IRE) (Bf 5.5) Drawn 0/11 Gelding
Candlish Jennie 0-8(2) Quinlan Sean 1-28(8) Days : 42
GNG dst JCK
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/4 1Fav
WR% = 19.0

I'd hope at least one of these would go in, they all look fairly good.
Dave

 

[davejb]

Report for : 12/01/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/10 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/6 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/5 Odds: 2.25 (Return: 3.25)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 2.25 (Return: 3.25)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/5 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/9 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 29 Total return (raw) = 3.25
Total wins: 1 / 29
List of winners:
New 17:00:00 Venturous (IRE) 3.25

Absolute pants - I really do not like Fairyhouse much, and it looks like Fairyhouse isn't keen on me!
On the other hand, of the three for today one was a non runner and the other two won, 15/8 and 10/11 - evens could be had on the latter at one point.


Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Fontwell 14:00:00 [NH C] Class 4 [19.5f] Stks [[4] run]
3/5 Runners rated
89 * 1656022 Umbrigado (IRE) (Bf 1.67) Drawn 0/4 Gelding
Pipe D E 2-14(1) Scudamore Tom 4-20(8) Days : 37
gng dst jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 1/2 1Fav
WR% = 33.0

Fontwell 14:30:00 [NH H] Class 4 [19.5f] Hcap [[8] run]
7/8 Runners rated
65 * 4551224 Lily The Pink (Bf 4) Drawn 0/8 Mare
Honeyball A J 0-2(0) Godfrey Ben 1-9(1) Days : 56
gng dst jck OR
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 3/1 2Fav
WR% = 13.0

Fontwell 15:00:00 [NH H] Class 4 [18f] Stks [[10] run]
8/10 Runners rated
92 * 3142 Allavina (IRE) (Bf 4) Drawn 0/10 Mare
Murphy Olly 3-21(7) Coleman A 4-16(12) Days : 25
JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 9/4 1Fav
WR% = 33.0

Bangor 15:20:00 [NH H] Class 4 [16.5f] Stks [[11] run]
5/11 Runners rated
81 * 5186513 The Glancing Queen (IRE) (Bf 1.67) Drawn 0/11 Mare
King A 3-20(8) Cannon Tom J 3-25(10) Days : 16
GNG DST JCK
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 1/3 1Fav
WR% = 26.0

The first and last of the above are top rated, but several runners in each race are as yet unrated, so I'd be wary of an upset if an unrated opponent were being supported in the market. Having said that they're not bad horses.

Dave

 

[davejb]

Report for : 13/01/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/7 Odds: 2.0 (Return: 3.0)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 2.0 (Return: 3.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/3 Odds: 0.53 0.73 (Return: 3.26)
Mkt filter 2/2 Odds: 0.53 0.73 (Return: 3.26)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/8 Odds: 0.83 (Return: 1.83)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 0.83 (Return: 1.83)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/10 Odds: 1.88 0.91 0.62 0.83 (Return: 8.24)
Mkt filter 2/2 Odds: 0.91 0.62 (Return: 3.53)

Total Out = 28 Total return (raw) = 16.33
Total wins: 8 / 28
List of winners:
Kem 16:45:00 Nortonthorpe Boy 3.0
Kem 18:20:00 Year Of The Dragon (IRE) 1.53
Kem 18:50:00 Melody Of Life (IRE) 1.73
Plu 13:00:00 Here Comes Johny (IRE) 2.88
Naa 13:20:00 Energumene (FR) 1.91
Lei 14:10:00 Zambella (FR) 1.62
Plu 15:30:00 High Up In The Air (FR) 1.83
Lei 15:40:00 Fontaine Collonges (FR) 1.83

Good win%, lousy return,,, ho hum!
Today's bets went well - two of the four were too short in the market and don't count, although both won. The other two won at 9/4 and 11/8, so a clean sweep for a nice change.

Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Dundalk 17:15:00 [AW] [10.5f] Stks [[14] run]
13/17 Runners rated
62 * 0552422 Mosala (IRE) (Bf 3.75) Drawn 14/14 Gelding
Bromhead Henry De 3-14(5) Keane C T 1-10(3) Days : 28
gng or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
AW non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 9/4 1Fav
WR% = 24.0

Might be okay, forecast odds look a bit mean considering the number of runners in this maiden, and how closely rated they are - plus this is the first run after a layoff, so I doubt there's aby value to be had.
Dave

 

[davejb]

Sorry, that's another post that apparently didn't - I've just come on to do tomorrow's stuff and found it sitting here. No idea why, if I had I'd stop doing it!

Sadly that means that Mosala was only seen by those reading the 'Experimental form ratings' thread, where I mentioned/discussed his chances earlier. Ho hum.....

Yesterday was virtually a carbon copy of the day before:

Report for : 14/01/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/6 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/8 Odds: 2.25 3.0 (Return: 7.25)
Mkt filter 2/7 Odds: 2.25 3.0 (Return: 7.25)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/6 Odds: 1.5 0.5 1.38 0.17 (Return: 7.55)
Mkt filter 2/3 Odds: 0.5 0.17 (Return: 2.67)

Total Out = 24 Total return (raw) = 14.8
Total wins: 6 / 24
List of winners:
Ban 13:50:00 Pennyforapound (IRE) 2.5
Fon 14:00:00 Umbrigado (IRE) 1.5
Fon 14:30:00 Lily The Pink 3.25
Fon 15:00:00 Allavina (IRE) 2.38
Ban 15:20:00 The Glancing Queen (IRE) 1.17
Ban 15:50:00 All Good Things (IRE) 4.0

...again the odds were low, making it a bit tougher to find a profit.
Today's pick was Mosala, as some may only just be finding out (see discussion on the thread I mentioned if you want to see what I thought of this as a bet, it's on the OS) he won nicely at 5/4. That makes 7 winners so far on the trot, with 5 of them being classed as 'bets', so don't be surprised if a few losers come along to balance things out a bit.


Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Market Rasen 12:55:00 [NH H] Class 4 [19f] Stks [[10] run]
9/10 Runners rated
91 * 12151 Martello Sky (Bf 3.25) Drawn 0/10 Mare
Wadham Mrs L 0-7(3) Frost Bryony 2-13(6) Days : 27
GNG JCK OR
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 15/8 2Fav
WR% = 26.0

Market Rasen 14:05:00 [NH H] Class 2 [17f] Hcap [[5] run]
5/5 Runners rated
111 * 3511222 Oscars Leader (IRE) (Bf 4.33) Drawn 0/5 Gelding
Candlish Jennie 0-7(1) Quinlan Sean 1-20(5) Days : 45
GNG DST JCK
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/4 2Fav
WR% = 11.0

Fairyhouse 14:15:00 [NH C] Grade 1 [17f] Hcap [[16] run]
17/17 Runners rated
143 * 2213222 Entoucas (FR) (Bf 7.5) Drawn 0/16 Gelding
OBrien Joseph Patrick 4-13(3) Walsh M P 1-1(1) Days : 35
dst JCK or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/1 2Fav
WR% = 8.0

Market Rasen 14:40:00 [NH H] Class 2 [23.5f] Stks [[8] run]
7/8 Runners rated
120 * 3063232 Lil Rockerfeller (USA) (Bf 2.63) Drawn 0/8 Gelding
King N B 0-4(0) Frost Bryony 2-13(6) Days : 50
gng dst or
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 15/8 1Fav
WR% = 26.0

Fairyhouse 14:50:00 [NH C] [17f] Stks [[14] run]
8/14 Runners rated
119 * 3321332 Port Stanley (IRE) (Bf 2.63) Drawn 0/14 Gelding
Harrington Mrs John 0-9(0) Power R M 0-1(0) Days : 35
gng dst JCK
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 4/5 1Fav
WR% = 15.0

Not convinced by the last one personally, the horse ought to have no trouble winning really, but almost half the field have yet to appear over fences, including a few winners, and PS has had a 2nd and two thirds (the first of which was over 30l adrift) so I'm not at all sure he's going to be as sure a thing as the market is likely to suggest.
Dave

 

[Chesham]

Excellent results davejb and well deserved

 

[Frontrunner]

Well done davejb , on a nice winning run, hope it continues. I didn’t back Mosala today, but I like the horse and have backed him before so pleased that he got his first win, I think he was well thought of as I remember they ran him against Galileo Chrome earlier in the season. Good luck tomorrow.

 

[mlmrob]

Outstanding work davejb

 

[davejb]

Yes,
Mosala did indeed run against Galileo Chrome - I think this was a much more realistic target but wouldn't be amazed if he went on to do a bit better in the future.
Dave

 

[davejb]

Report for : 15/01/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/17 Odds: 4.0 (Return: 5.0)
Mkt filter 1/10 Odds: 4.0 (Return: 5.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/7 Odds: 8.0 1.25 (Return: 11.25)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 1.25 (Return: 2.25)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 24 Total return (raw) = 16.25
Total wins: 3 / 24
List of winners:
New 13:40:00 Pallas Dancer 5.0
Dun 16:45:00 Glorious Zoff (IRE) 9.0
Dun 17:15:00 Mosala (IRE) 2.25

Useless day there then.
Today's bets - well, I did say they were due a few losers, I just wish I was a bit more sure that I'm good at spotting the turning point (I have now said similar a few times, and had a string of losers suddenly appear) rather than good at jinxing my own efforts!
Well, today I was right about Port Stanley at least, he got beaten by Aramax (14/1 shot) whilst 8/11 favourite - at least he was a no bet. Of the other 4 one was a non runner and the others lost - Lil Rockerfeller tried awfully hard and was beaten a neck, at 16/5 so it was almost a profitable day.... close but no coconut!

No bets tomorrow.
Dave

 

[davejb]

Report for : 16/01/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 5/12 Odds: 5.5 5.0 1.1 2.5 12.0 (Return: 31.1)
Mkt filter 2/7 Odds: 5.0 1.1 (Return: 8.1)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/5 Odds: 5.5 0.91 (Return: 8.41)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 0.91 (Return: 1.91)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/11 Odds: 5.0 9.0 (Return: 16.0)
Mkt filter 1/5 Odds: 5.0 (Return: 6.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/11 Odds: 0.91 1.38 (Return: 4.29)
Mkt filter 1/5 Odds: 1.38 (Return: 2.38)

Total Out = 39 Total return (raw) = 59.8
Total wins: 11 / 39
List of winners:
Lin 14:00:00 Catch My Breath 6.5
Lin 15:10:00 Count Otto (IRE) 6.0
Lin 15:45:00 Swiss Pride (IRE) 2.1
Kem 16:15:00 Durdle Door 6.5
Kem 16:45:00 Bint Al Anood 1.91
Kem 18:20:00 Babajan (IRE) 3.5
Kem 19:50:00 Born To Finish (IRE) 13.0
Fai 12:30:00 Roseys Hollow (IRE) 1.91
Mar 15:15:00 Eileendover 2.38
War 15:35:00 Imperial Alcazar (IRE) 6.0
Mar 15:50:00 Getaway North 10.0

Hmm, a rather better day there then.
No bets today, For tomorrow:

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Ayr 13:25:00 [NH C] Class 4 [16.5f] Stks [[2] run]
1/2 Runners rated
98 * 113P412 Cornerstone Lad (Bf 2.25) Drawn 0/2 Gelding
Hammond Micky 0-12(2) Hughes Brian 6-21(11) Days : 30
GNG DST OR
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET Evs 2Fav
WR% = 17.0

Lingfield AW 15:25:00 [NH F] Class 4 [16f] Stks [[9] run]
4/9 Runners rated
110 * 2454813 Mystic Dreamer (IRE) (Bf 6) Drawn 0/9 Mare
Gifford N J 1-8(1) Worsley Tabitha 1-12(4) Days : 20
dst JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/4 1Fav
WR% = 6.0

- Okay, the first of these is looking like the 2nd fav in a 2 horse race, where there's not a lot between them in the betting. These match races can be a total minefield so personally I'm not interested in betting on it. As for the second, Mystic Dreamer does look the best of a fairly lacklustre bunch, but it's one of those bumper races designed more for giving the horses a run than anything too serious, and with a strike rate of 6% I'm not tempted by this one either. I think both of the selections are capable of winning, I just don't think either race is likely to be that true a reflection of the runners' form.

Dave

 

[Outlander]

Report for : 16/01/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 5/12 Odds: 5.5 5.0 1.1 2.5 12.0 (Return: 31.1)
Mkt filter 2/7 Odds: 5.0 1.1 (Return: 8.1)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/5 Odds: 5.5 0.91 (Return: 8.41)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 0.91 (Return: 1.91)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/11 Odds: 5.0 9.0 (Return: 16.0)
Mkt filter 1/5 Odds: 5.0 (Return: 6.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/11 Odds: 0.91 1.38 (Return: 4.29)
Mkt filter 1/5 Odds: 1.38 (Return: 2.38)

Total Out = 39 Total return (raw) = 59.8
Total wins: 11 / 39
List of winners:
Lin 14:00:00 Catch My Breath 6.5
Lin 15:10:00 Count Otto (IRE) 6.0
Lin 15:45:00 Swiss Pride (IRE) 2.1
Kem 16:15:00 Durdle Door 6.5
Kem 16:45:00 Bint Al Anood 1.91
Kem 18:20:00 Babajan (IRE) 3.5
Kem 19:50:00 Born To Finish (IRE) 13.0
Fai 12:30:00 Roseys Hollow (IRE) 1.91
Mar 15:15:00 Eileendover 2.38
War 15:35:00 Imperial Alcazar (IRE) 6.0
Mar 15:50:00 Getaway North 10.0

Hmm, a rather better day there then.
No bets today, For tomorrow:

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Ayr 13:25:00 [NH C] Class 4 [16.5f] Stks [[2] run]
1/2 Runners rated
98 * 113P412 Cornerstone Lad (Bf 2.25) Drawn 0/2 Gelding
Hammond Micky 0-12(2) Hughes Brian 6-21(11) Days : 30
GNG DST OR
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET Evs 2Fav
WR% = 17.0

Lingfield AW 15:25:00 [NH F] Class 4 [16f] Stks [[9] run]
4/9 Runners rated
110 * 2454813 Mystic Dreamer (IRE) (Bf 6) Drawn 0/9 Mare
Gifford N J 1-8(1) Worsley Tabitha 1-12(4) Days : 20
dst JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/4 1Fav
WR% = 6.0

- Okay, the first of these is looking like the 2nd fav in a 2 horse race, where there's not a lot between them in the betting. These match races can be a total minefield so personally I'm not interested in betting on it. As for the second, Mystic Dreamer does look the best of a fairly lacklustre bunch, but it's one of those bumper races designed more for giving the horses a run than anything too serious, and with a strike rate of 6% I'm not tempted by this one either. I think both of the selections are capable of winning, I just don't think either race is likely to be that true a reflection of the runners' form.

Dave

Very nice results for your ratings yesterday davejb

 

[davejb]

It happens now and then O Outlander mate, bit of a lottery still I'm afraid!