Early days

[davejb]

Report for : 02/09/2020
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/22 Odds: 4.5 (Return: 5.5)
Mkt filter 1/12 Odds: 4.5 (Return: 5.5)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/14 Odds: 0.57 0.83 2.0 (Return: 6.4)
Mkt filter 2/8 Odds: 0.57 0.83 (Return: 3.4)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/13 Odds: 8.5 5.0 (Return: 15.5)
Mkt filter 0/6 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/3 Odds: 0.5 (Return: 1.5)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 0.5 (Return: 1.5)

Total Out = 52 Total return (raw) = 28.9
Total wins: 7 / 52
List of winners:
Gow 12:30:00 Duke Of Mantua (IRE) 1.57
Gow 13:35:00 Champers Elysees (IRE) 1.83
Bat 14:00:00 Under Curfew 5.5
Gow 15:05:00 Daylight Come (IRE) 3.0
Hex 16:15:00 Pisgah Pike (IRE) 1.5
Hex 16:50:00 Empire De Maulde (FR) 9.5
Hex 19:30:00 Court Baloo (IRE) 6.0

Not much there really, however -
One bet today, won at 11/4

tomorrow:

Down Royal 14:35:00 [Flat] Listed Race [14f] Stks [[9] run]
84 * 2240523 Barbados (IRE) (Bf 4) Drawn 9/9 (P) Colt
Harrington Mrs John 5-41(9) Foley Shane 7-66(22) Days : 16
gng dst jck OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
Flat non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 100/30 2Fav
WR% = 40.0

Sedgefield 16:30:00 [NH H] Class 4 [17f] Stks [[7] run]
84 * 3502743 Operatic Export (IRE) (Bf 2.38) Drawn 0/7 Filly
Newland Dr R D P 1-14(1) Hughes Brian 7-40(21) Days : 18
or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 2/1 2Fav
WR% = 32.0

Kilbeggan 16:40:00 [NH H] [16f] Stks [[14] run]
82 * 4433F2 Broomfields Jeremy (IRE) (Bf 4) Drawn 0/14 Gelding
Dempsey J P 0-5(2) OSullivan James 0-5(1) Days : 14
gng dst or
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 13/8 1Fav
WR% = 28.0


Dave

 

[pete]

One bet today, won at 11/4

can't ask for more than that. well done davejb

 

[davejb]

Report for : 03/09/2020
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/19 Odds: 10.0 (Return: 11.0)
Mkt filter 0/9 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/16 Odds: 0.5 2.75 4.0 (Return: 10.25)
Mkt filter 2/8 Odds: 0.5 2.75 (Return: 5.25)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/7 Odds: 4.5 (Return: 5.5)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 4.5 (Return: 5.5)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/6 Odds: 4.0 (Return: 5.0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 48 Total return (raw) = 31.75
Total wins: 6 / 48
List of winners:
New 14:00:00 Fivethousandtoone (IRE) 1.5
Sal 15:10:00 Happy Romance (IRE) 3.75
Che 19:50:00 Shamaroon (IRE) 5.0
Che 20:20:00 Jack The Truth (IRE) 11.0
Clo 17:40:00 Zinat (IRE) 5.5
Clo 19:10:00 More Info (IRE) 5.0

today there were three selections - the first was not really a bet against a 1/2 favourite, which duly won from the selection. The remaining pair both won, at evens and 11/8, so not a bad day (even if the first one was backed).

tomorrow:

Kempton AW 13:30:00 [AW] Class 4 [7f] Stks [[9] run]
61 * 54342 Temple Bruer (Bf 11) Drawn 5/9 (P) Colt
Walker Ed 0-19(4) Mitchell Jack 6-38(15) Days : 14
dst jck
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
AW non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 9/2 2Fav
WR% = 25.0

Wexford 14:40:00 [NH H] [16.5f] Hcap [[11] run]
62 * 58P3007 Storm Flight (IRE) (Bf 999) Drawn 0/11 Gelding
ODwyer Conor 0-6(1) 0-0(0) Days : 60
dst
Passes: Odds
Fails: Form Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/2 1Fav
WR% = 16.0

Haydock 15:25:00 [Flat] Group 1 [6f] Stks [[13] run]
109 * 1208021 Dream Of Dreams (IRE) (Bf 3.75) Drawn 11/13 (P) Gelding
Stoute Sir Michael 4-29(12) Murphy Oisin 14-75(31) Days : 21
DST JCK
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
Flat non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 3/1 1Fav
WR% = 26.0

Wexford 17:00:00 [NH C] [20f] Hcap [[11] run]
78 * P00PPP1 The Broom Squire (IRE) (Bf 999) Drawn 0/11 Gelding
Rothwell P J 0-5(0) 0-0(0) Days : 31

Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/2 1Fav
WR% = 16.0

Wexford 17:35:00 [NH C] [25f] Hcap [[11] run]
76 * 4560571 Mary Fields (IRE) (Bf 4) Drawn 0/11 Mare
Hennessy Niall Patrick 0-1(0) Hamill Mikey 0-1(0) Days : 22
JCK
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 4/1 2Fav
WR% = 16.0

A good few there then.
Dave

 

[davejb]

Report for : 04/09/2020
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/22 Odds: 3.5 (Return: 4.5)
Mkt filter 1/13 Odds: 3.5 (Return: 4.5)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/15 Odds: 2.25 1.38 1.88 7.0 (Return: 16.51)
Mkt filter 2/6 Odds: 1.38 1.88 (Return: 5.26)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/7 Odds: 1.75 1.1 3.5 (Return: 9.35)
Mkt filter 3/5 Odds: 1.75 1.1 3.5 (Return: 9.35)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/7 Odds: 0.22 1.0 1.38 1.1 (Return: 7.7)
Mkt filter 2/4 Odds: 0.22 1.1 (Return: 3.32)

Total Out = 51 Total return (raw) = 38.06
Total wins: 12 / 51
List of winners:
Dow 13:00:00 Mooneista (IRE) 3.25
Thi 13:50:00 Alba Rose 2.38
Thi 15:30:00 Shelir (IRE) 4.5
Hay 16:25:00 Teodolina (IRE) 2.88
Kem 17:50:00 Lightening Shore 8.0
Kil 16:05:00 Fusain (FR) 1.22
Sed 16:30:00 Operatic Export (IRE) 2.0
Kil 16:40:00 Broomfields Jeremy (IRE) 2.38
Sed 17:00:00 Peterborough (FR) 2.75
Sed 17:30:00 The Blame Game (IRE) 2.1
Sed 18:00:00 Chocolat Noir (IRE) 2.1
Kil 19:10:00 Visioman (FR) 4.5

One winner (5/2) from 4 today.

Two tomorrow:
York 13:00:00 [Flat] Class 3 [5.5f] Stks [[13] run]
80 * 2834 Mamba Wamba (IRE) (Bf 3.25) Drawn 5/13 (S) Filly
Nicholls Adrian 0-11(0) McHugh B 2-24(8) Days : 15
gng dst jck
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
Flat non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 5/2 1Fav
WR% = 26.0

Fontwell 13:10:00 [NH H] Class 4 [18f] Stks [[9] run]
89 * 2F3112 Courtandbould (IRE) (Bf 3.5) Drawn 0/9 Gelding
OBrien Fergal 4-16(3) Brennan P J 7-26(17) Days : 18
GNG DST JCK
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 2/1 1Fav
WR% = 36.0

Enable's last run was pretty predictable, but nice to see her again - only one more run to watch her in then the journey of the last few years will be over - Sic Transit Gloria Mundi, as the saying goes, although my aunt Gloria never had a transit van to be honest, she was more a Marina type.
Dave

 

[davejb]

I can't do a 'yesterday's ratings' report as my PC fried itself last night, and whilst I do a backup after doing the results processing etc I don't have the data files recording the ratings for yesterday (not the Excel files, these are files that record a lot of data about each runner, where they rank in the race, market info and all sorts) nor today so that bit I can't do.

On the plus side I do keep the data files backed up daily - and as I do that after processing results I can continue without a break in producing the race cards etc as usual. I'm also not completely fit right now so apologies but I'm taking the easy route with the cards, putting all meetings into a single spreadsheet rather than splitting them a sheet per meeting, I hope this isn't an inconvenience to anyone, it speeds the job up a fair bit and I'm not really up to sitting here all that long.

FInally I discovered that I backed up my standard time program work but not the data - so I'll have to get back to that when my PC has been repaired. (I'm doing this on my laptop, in case anyone thought I was typing all this on my phone or something....)

Right, so, two winners today at 6/5 and 15/8

For tomorrow:

Lingfield 14:00:00 [Flat] Class 6 [5f] Stks [[7] run]
53 * 06233 Brenner Pass (Bf 3) Drawn 3/7 Colt
Hughes Richard 2-20(4) Kelly Shane 6-32(13) Days : 33
dst jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
Flat non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET Evs 1Fav
WR% = 32.0

Galway 17:10:00 [NH H] [21.5f] Stks [[5] run]
114 * 38162P1 The Storyteller (IRE) (Bf 1.67) Drawn 0/5 Gelding
Elliott Gordon 5-50(12) Donoghue K M 2-17(7) Days : 38
gng JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 10/11 1Fav
WR% = 22.0

Dave

 

[davejb]

Of today's two selections the first was 5/6 and not therefore a bet, he won but had to fight hard for it. The second went off at 6/5, unexpectedly as he'd been odds on before the race, but he justified the support and won fairly readily. Tomorrow we have just the one:

Goodwood 16:05:00 [Flat] Class 2 [6f] Stks [[5] run]
72 * 2122 Different Face (Bf 3.25) Drawn 4/5 Filly
Crisford Simon 8-23(5) Buick William 12-69(28) Days : 29
gng jck
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
Flat non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 9/4 2Fav
WR% = 23.0

- just in case anyone is reading this for the first time, the selections have been doing well for a little while and I wouldn't want anyone to imagine this is going to continue for much longer. In reality the overall results to level stakes are okay, but not stellar - shove a quid on each one and - especially if you get best odds from your bookie - and (so far) you'd see the balance of the account creeping up a bit, dropping a bit, creeping a bit higher.... and after only 2 years you could probably afford a sumptuous feast for 2 at Wetherspoons on the winnings. There have been losing ruins when nothing seems to go right, and occasional good runs. They are posted more for entertainment than for funding changes of lifestyle!

No 'yesterday' results again, due to the PC crash, I'll be able to include that part again from tomorrow.

Dave

 

[davejb]

Report for : 07/09/2020
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/16 Odds: 3.0 16.0 (Return: 21.0)
Mkt filter 2/10 Odds: 3.0 16.0 (Return: 21.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/9 Odds: 0.83 0.25 0.83 1.5 (Return: 7.41)
Mkt filter 3/6 Odds: 0.25 0.83 1.5 (Return: 5.58)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/6 Odds: 3.33 (Return: 4.33)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 3.33 (Return: 4.33)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/5 Odds: 0.73 1.2 (Return: 3.93)
Mkt filter 2/3 Odds: 0.73 1.2 (Return: 3.93)

Total Out = 36 Total return (raw) = 36.67
Total wins: 9 / 36
List of winners:
Lin 14:00:00 Brenner Pass 1.83
Lin 14:30:00 King Zain (IRE) 1.25
Lei 14:50:00 Tawleed (IRE) 1.83
Lin 16:00:00 Poetic Lilly 4.0
Lei 16:25:00 Tis Marvellous 2.5
Win 18:30:00 Couldnt Could She 17.0
Gal 16:05:00 January Jets (IRE) 1.73
Gal 17:10:00 The Storyteller (IRE) 2.2
Gal 19:10:00 In Your Shadow (IRE) 4.33

Oooh, 67p up, what to spend it all on?

today's sole bet led to the final furlong, and then, to be honest, was lucky to hold onto third.

Tomorrow:

Wolverhampton AW 17:10:00 [AW] Class 5 [6f] Stks [[13] run]
57 * 2322 Silent Queen (IRE) (Bf 7) Drawn 1/13 Filly
Boughey George 3-7(1) Shoemark Kieran 4-34(9) Days : 7
gng
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
AW non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 3/1 1Fav
WR% = 23.0

Cork 18:30:00 [Flat] Listed Race [7f] Stks [[12] run]
78 * 44914 United Front (USA) (Bf 6) Drawn 11/12 Colt
OBrien A P 6-21(4) Heffernan J A 4-26(10) Days : 89
JCK
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
Flat non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 9/2 2Fav
WR% = 24.0

Dave

 

[davejb]

Report for : 08/09/2020
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/25 Odds: 0.44 3.0 (Return: 5.44)
Mkt filter 2/15 Odds: 0.44 3.0 (Return: 5.44)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/13 Odds: 2.25 0.73 22.0 2.0 (Return: 30.98)
Mkt filter 2/4 Odds: 0.73 2.0 (Return: 4.73)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/5 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/7 Odds: 12.0 10.0 (Return: 24.0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 50 Total return (raw) = 60.42
Total wins: 8 / 50
List of winners:
Cat 15:25:00 Cormier (IRE) 1.44
Gal 17:35:00 Dame Dandy (IRE) 3.25
Goo 17:45:00 John Locke 1.73
Gal 18:05:00 Khafaaq 4.0
New 18:20:00 Bobby Shaft 23.0
Gal 19:35:00 Prose (IRE) 3.0
New 13:30:00 Lovato (GER) 13.0
Pun 16:15:00 Monas Melody (IRE) 11.0

2 losers today, and no selections for tomorrow - the program did throw Logician up, for those who don't mind backing horses after long layoffs, but he's hardly going to be a bargain price, is he?

Dave

 

[davejb]

Report for : 09/09/2020
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 5/15 Odds: 9.0 5.0 2.0 1.0 1.1 (Return: 23.1)
Mkt filter 3/5 Odds: 2.0 1.0 1.1 (Return: 7.1)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 5/20 Odds: 0.73 0.83 1.38 1.38 1.0 (Return: 10.32)
Mkt filter 4/8 Odds: 0.73 0.83 1.38 1.38 (Return: 8.32)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 4/9 Odds: 10.0 6.0 1.88 3.0 (Return: 24.88)
Mkt filter 3/7 Odds: 10.0 6.0 3.0 (Return: 22.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/7 Odds: 1.75 1.38 (Return: 5.13)
Mkt filter 2/2 Odds: 1.75 1.38 (Return: 5.13)

Total Out = 51 Total return (raw) = 63.43
Total wins: 16 / 51
List of winners:
Don 13:10:00 Latest Generation 1.73
Kem 14:25:00 Kings Slipper 10.0
Kem 15:30:00 Mishal Star (IRE) 1.83
Cor 16:00:00 High Heels (IRE) 2.38
Wol 16:35:00 Red Allure 6.0
Kem 16:40:00 Life Matters (USA) 3.0
Cor 17:00:00 Loch Lein (IRE) 2.38
Wol 17:45:00 Abduction (FR) 2.0
Cor 18:00:00 Magnanimous (IRE) 2.0
Wol 19:15:00 Boss Power (IRE) 2.1
Pun 13:15:00 Red Gerry (IRE) 2.75
Utt 13:30:00 Glimpse Of Gold 11.0
Utt 15:05:00 Longhouse Sale (IRE) 2.38
Utt 15:35:00 Flashing Glance 7.0
Utt 16:45:00 Vinnie The Hoddie (IRE) 2.88
Utt 17:15:00 Nevilles Cross (IRE) 4.0

Shame some of the prices weren't a bit bigger, but solid enough I guess.

It was nice to see Logician return after his horrible health issue, let's hope he continues to go from strength to strength.

No bets today,
Three tomorrow:

Kilbeggan 15:10:00 [NH H] [20f] Stks [[14] run]
67 * 92963 Family Business (IRE) (Bf 6.5) Drawn 0/14 Mare
Coffey Donal 0-0(0) McNamara Conor 2-22(7) Days : 20
jck or
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 4/1 2Fav
WR% = 29.0

Kilbeggan 17:50:00 [NH H] [25f] Hcap [[14] run]
89 * U000512 Mick Charlie (IRE) (Bf 6.5) Drawn 0/14 Gelding
Queally Declan 0-7(1) OKeeffe Sean F 3-28(9) Days : 20
JCK
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/1 3Fav
WR% = 13.0

Kilbeggan 18:20:00 [NH C] [20f] Stks [[13] run]
111 * 2034057 Lever Du Soleil (FR) (Bf 11) Drawn 0/13 Gelding
Cromwell Gavin Patrick 3-39(7) McNamara Conor 2-22(7) Days : 33
dst jck OR
Passes: Stable Odds
Fails: Form
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 9/2 2Fav
WR% = 29.0

Dave

 

[davejb]

Just got my PC back, and everything transferred across, yippee. £65 repair in the end, all done inside 4 days. Mind you a blown PSU isn't a big job, but being a posh gaming PC thing the guy had to send off for a posh gaming PSU to actually fit the posh gaming clever dick computer case, which ended up costing me £22 extra above the original quote for a non posh gaming replacement.

Quicker - much quicker - and a lot cheaper than PC World, I'm happy to say.

I ought to be able to get back on with my flat standards this weekend, as an odd hour on the data editing should see that side of it all done. Not long now, hopefully...

Dave

 

[davejb]

Ah, damn, I didn't transfer the results info did I? Oh well, I do have yesterdays totals written down so we're just missing the list of winners -
there were 7 winners in 41 races, returning 34.81 pts to a 1pt level stake.

Three bets today - all three came 2nd, including one by half a length to a 100/1 shot. As all three were at good odds any one of them winning would have secured a profit so I think that was a bit of an unlucky run of things.

Tomorrow:

Musselburgh 15:30:00 [Flat] Class 6 [5f] Stks [[8] run]
40 * 623333 Beverage (IRE) (Bf 4.5) Drawn 7/8 Filly
Johnston M 9-80(29) Hart Jason 1-46(8) Days : 13
gng dst or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
Flat non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 3/1 1Fav
WR% = 20.0

Leopardstown 16:45:00 [Flat] Group 2 [8f] Stks [[10] run]
95 * 4437211 Century Dream (IRE) (Bf 4) Drawn 3/10 Colt
Crisford Simon 10-26(5) Buick William 9-68(28) Days : 14
GNG DST
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
Flat non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 7/2 1Fav
WR% = 20.0

Let's hope these two can cheer things up on Leger day.

Dave

 

[davejb]

Report for : 11/09/2020
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/18 Odds: 6.0 (Return: 7.0)
Mkt filter 1/7 Odds: 6.0 (Return: 7.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 5/20 Odds: 0.29 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.88 (Return: 10.47)
Mkt filter 1/7 Odds: 0.29 (Return: 1.29)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/3 Odds: 2.0 (Return: 3.0)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 2.0 (Return: 3.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 45 Total return (raw) = 20.47
Total wins: 7 / 45
List of winners:
San 14:00:00 Maximal 1.29
Che 16:00:00 Sir Maximilian (IRE) 7.0
Don 16:15:00 Tawaareq (IRE) 2.1
Che 16:35:00 Baryshnikov 2.2
Sal 18:05:00 Second Slip (IRE) 2.0
Sal 18:35:00 Trueshan (FR) 2.88
Kil 16:45:00 Zinat (IRE) 3.0

today there were just the two losers - bah!

tomorrow:

Curragh 16:40:00 [Flat] Group 1 [14f] Stks [[8] run]
85 * 3230132 Sovereign (IRE) (Bf 4.5) Drawn 2/8 Colt
OBrien A P 7-32(5) Moore Ryan 2-10(5) Days : 50
gng dst or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
Flat non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 11/4 1Fav
WR% = 18.0

Dave

 

[davejb]

Report for : 12/09/2020
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/20 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/11 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/15 Odds: 4.5 4.0 (Return: 10.5)
Mkt filter 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/5 Odds: 1.0 (Return: 2.0)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 1.0 (Return: 2.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 44 Total return (raw) = 12.5
Total wins: 3 / 44
List of winners:
Leo 16:10:00 Magical (IRE) 5.5
Leo 16:45:00 Safe Voyage (IRE) 5.0
Fon 15:55:00 Yes No Maybe So (IRE) 2.0

Pretty dismal.
Today's sole bet is still out there somewhere I think, trying to find the winning post.
Tomorrow two more opportunities for joy or woe, as the future will show -


Sligo 15:50:00 [NH C] [24.5f] Stks [[7] run]
116 * 2231211 Jerandme (IRE) (Bf 2.75) Drawn 0/7 Gelding
Meade Noel 4-25(6) ORegan Denis 1-13(3) Days : 10
GNG dst OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/8 1Fav
WR% = 28.0

Wolverhampton AW 16:10:00 [AW] Class 5 [6f] Stks [[10] run]
52 * 0543 Baba Reza (Bf 5) Drawn 7/10 Gelding
Moubarak Mohamed 1-11(4) Steward Louis 2-15(7) Days : 9
gng dst
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
AW non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 5/1 2Fav
WR% = 23.0

Dave

 

[Chesham]

Well done davejb

 

[davejb]

Report for : 13/09/2020
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/23 Odds: 10.0 1.38 (Return: 13.38)
Mkt filter 2/10 Odds: 10.0 1.38 (Return: 13.38)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/13 Odds: 0.29 0.57 3.5 (Return: 7.36)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 0.29 (Return: 1.29)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 36 Total return (raw) = 20.74
Total wins: 5 / 36
List of winners:
Bat 13:35:00 Colour Image (IRE) 1.29
Che 13:45:00 Areehaa (IRE) 1.57
Bat 14:10:00 Tanqeeb 11.0
Wol 15:35:00 Denzils Laughing (IRE) 4.5
Wol 16:35:00 Make It Rain (IRE) 2.38

Slight improvement, but not a lot.

Two runners today, the first was 4/6 and a no bet, the second depends a bit on what you saw - pre race the selection was up against a 4/6 shot and a no bet, but the favourite (who came 4th) went off about evens, so making our chap a bet..... ho hum, he ran 3rd in the end, having gone to the front a furlong or so out just in time to get collared before the line.

tomorrow:

Redcar 16:20:00 [Flat] Class 5 [6f] Stks [[9] run]
46 * 2592322 Meccas Hot Steps (Bf 3) Drawn 8/9 Filly
Dods M 4-38(13) Beasley Connor 2-23(11) Days : 37
gng jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
Flat non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 9/4 2Fav
WR% = 20.0

Dave

 

[davejb]

Report for : 14/09/2020
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/24 Odds: 2.25 6.5 1.2 (Return: 12.95)
Mkt filter 3/16 Odds: 2.25 6.5 1.2 (Return: 12.95)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 6/14 Odds: 3.0 3.5 1.1 0.91 0.04 1.75 (Return: 16.3)
Mkt filter 2/6 Odds: 3.0 0.91 (Return: 5.91)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/2 Odds: 0.67 (Return: 1.67)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 0.67 (Return: 1.67)

Total Out = 44 Total return (raw) = 30.92
Total wins: 10 / 44
List of winners:
Thi 13:00:00 Just Frank 4.0
Lin 13:50:00 Mr Millarcky 3.25
Thi 14:05:00 Dancing Rave 7.5
Lin 14:20:00 Fangorn 4.5
Bat 14:30:00 The Kodi Kid (IRE) 2.1
Tip 15:00:00 Toshizou (IRE) 1.91
Lin 15:25:00 Clareyblue (IRE) 2.2
Thi 15:45:00 Lady G (IRE) 1.04
Wol 16:40:00 Bumble Beee (IRE) 2.75
Sli 15:50:00 Jerandme (IRE) 1.67

Not bad win rate, but the odds weren't much use.

One loser today I'm afraid.

2 Tomorrow:

Cork 13:30:00 [Flat] [6f] Stks [[10] run]
65 * 6857743 Grey Streak (IRE) (Bf 5.5) Drawn 6/10 Gelding
Condon K J 2-15(2) Lee W J 7-51(22) Days : 6
jck
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
Flat non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 7/2 1Fav
WR% = 25.0

Cork 15:15:00 [Flat] [8f] Stks [[13] run]
54 * 8333 Flying Visit (IRE) (Bf 3.75) Drawn 10/13 Colt
Bolger J S 7-45(4) Manning K J 6-43(12) Days : 8
dst jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
Flat non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 7/2 1Fav
WR% = 25.0

Dave

 

[davejb]

Report for : 15/09/2020
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/19 Odds: 5.5 5.0 (Return: 12.5)
Mkt filter 2/9 Odds: 5.5 5.0 (Return: 12.5)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/14 Odds: 4.5 4.0 5.0 (Return: 16.5)
Mkt filter 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 39 Total return (raw) = 29.0
Total wins: 5 / 39
List of winners:
Tip 13:05:00 Grammata (IRE) 5.5
Red 13:15:00 Madreselva 5.0
Tip 14:35:00 Magic Chegaga (IRE) 6.0
Yar 16:00:00 Global Hope (IRE) 6.5
Kem 19:40:00 Mrs Benson (IRE) 6.0

Still not going that well, and today's two runners both lost as well.


Tramore 13:30:00 [NH H] [16f] Stks [[13] run]
84 * 5234262 Grange Walk (IRE) (Bf 2.5) Drawn 0/13 Gelding
Ryan John Patrick 1-28(7) Mullins D E 1-21(7) Days : 40
gng dst jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/2 2Fav
WR% = 21.0

Tramore 15:35:00 [NH C] [21.5f] Stks [[12] run]
76 * 5P56452 The Echo Boy (IRE) (Bf 3) Drawn 0/12 Gelding
McLoughlin D A 0-13(1) Hand D J 0-6(1) Days : 13
jck or
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 9/4 1Fav
WR% = 21.0

About time we had a winner again.....

Dave

 

[davejb]

Report for : 16/09/2020
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/16 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/9 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/12 Odds: 1.75 0.83 0.36 (Return: 5.94)
Mkt filter 1/5 Odds: 0.36 (Return: 1.36)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 33 Total return (raw) = 5.94
Total wins: 3 / 33
List of winners:
San 14:50:00 Just Fine (IRE) 2.75
San 15:25:00 My Swallow 1.83
Bev 16:05:00 Cottam Lane 1.36

Puir mince, as one would suggest when in Hibernia.

Well, at last a break in the losing run. one winner from 2, returned at 11/4.

Tomorrow:
Newbury 15:05:00 [Flat] Class 3 [7f] Stks [[7] run]
58 * 5213 Genuflex (Bf 3.75) Drawn 3/7 Colt
Hannon (Jnr) Richard 16-108(20) Ryan Rossa 0-39(13) Days : 26
gng dst jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
Flat non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 3/1 1Fav
WR% = 21.0

Dave

 

[Markmooney1173]

I know its probably written somewhere in this forum but what exactly is the EPS ratings sheet? Great work by the way, i have my own ratings and always compare them to yours, i had 4 out of 6 winners yesterday, one of them being your 11-4 tip.

 

[davejb]

The EPS is a sheet that gives a numerical score to different styles of racing to attempt to highlight those runners that are inclined to
(a) Set the early pace, attempting to lead for most or all the race (E type)
(b) Horses that are usually held up just behind the leaders, racing prominently but not leading (P type)
(c) Hold up types that sit towards the rear with a view to coming with a late run (S type)

The lowest scores are for S type, next up is P type, and the highest EPS scores are for early pace types - the chart is trying to make it easy to assess where the pace is likely to be in a race, whether there are any front runners (and whether they might manage an uncontested lead), how big a pack is there going to be fighting out the final 2f, and so forth.

It should be read alongside the speed rating which is also shown on each line - you could have a horse that blazes away from the stalls and invariably leads, but never actually makes it to the finish, so being a front runner AND the highest speed rated in the race could be okay on a track that is known to favour front runners. (Obviously enough, a front runner is more likely to get a clear run, but still needs to be quicker than the rest to actually stand a decent chance of winning).

I'm glad the tip worked out - be aware that after a good run recently the selections have been running somewhat slowly for the past week or so,

Yesterday:
Report for : 17/09/2020
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 4/27 Odds: 5.5 3.33 11.0 20.0 (Return: 43.83)
Mkt filter 4/19 Odds: 5.5 3.33 11.0 20.0 (Return: 43.83)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/15 Odds: 7.5 2.13 0.83 0.67 (Return: 15.13)
Mkt filter 2/6 Odds: 0.83 0.67 (Return: 3.5)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/4 Odds: 2.75 (Return: 3.75)
Mkt filter 1/4 Odds: 2.75 (Return: 3.75)

Total Out = 49 Total return (raw) = 62.71
Total wins: 9 / 49
List of winners:
Pon 14:20:00 Last Surprise (IRE) 6.5
Naa 15:15:00 Keeper Of Time (IRE) 8.5
Ayr 15:30:00 Salsada (IRE) 4.33
Naa 15:45:00 Fight Zone (USA) 3.13
Naa 16:15:00 Giselles Thunder (IRE) 1.83
Yar 16:40:00 Al Saariyah (IRE) 1.67
Ayr 17:35:00 Nakeeta 12.0
Che 19:30:00 Laurentia (IRE) 21.0
Tra 13:30:00 Grange Walk (IRE) 3.75

That panned out a bit better then.

Today's selection didn't win. Didn't come close.

tomorrow:

Gowran Park 15:10:00 [Flat] [8f] Stks [[6] run]
80 * 0315012 Lord Rapscallion (IRE) (Bf 2.88) Drawn 5/6 Gelding
Murtagh J P 3-25(3) Lee W J 7-57(24) Days : 7
GNG DST OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
Flat non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 2/1 2Fav
WR% = 27.0

Newton Abbot 15:35:00 [NH H] Class 4 [17f] Stks [[14] run]
100 * 42922 Misstree Song (Bf 6) Drawn 0/14 Mare
Skelton Daniel 1-4(1) Skelton Harry 1-4(2) Days : 25
gng dst jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 3/1 2Fav
WR% = 35.0

Dave