Early days

[mlmrob]

or as I think we saw at Cheltenham, knee jerk proactive actions..

That did my napper in that. I was listening to Talksport on Friday afternoon and the furore from people who didn't have a clue was mind blowing. One idiot suggested ban horseracing and they could all do cross country and show jumping, dipstick.
They all saw Sir Erec and all of a sudden our sport is compared to Bullfighting.

The bottom line is Invitation Only and Ballyward also lost their lives at Cheltenham. Both horses owned by the Wylies and anyone who knows Andrea would know she will have been distraught. I saw the connections of Lucarno Dancer in absolute bits at Sedgefield when the mare broke her leg last week and Carlos De Fruitier' s owner gave the horse every chance to recover from his injuries at Sandown but the horse sadly died overnight. None of this is mentioned.
It isn't nice to see, the sight of a horse breaking a leg whilst doing a job he loves not like some idiot who said that horses are made to go faster than they should be by the jockeys. I wonder if the caller has ever tried to move a horse when it doesn't want to.
It is a sad state of affairs that everytime Cheltenham and Aintree are on the asylum open its doors for the day. There were more fatalities at Chelmsford last year than Cheltenham. Only three horses have lost their life at Aintree in the last three years after that 2016 meeting.

Why don't these people turn up at the dealer sales and see thoroughbred horses go through the ring for sale for slaughter. If they can stop that from happening they will be doing something useful instead of snowflaking allover Cheltenham and Aintree.

 

[davejb]

It's a very emotive subject unfortunately, and emotion makes for bad decisions. It also illustrates how our modern society seems to have 'evolved' into believing that having a mobile phone makes them an expert worth listening to.

Perhaps there could be some sort of educational program for the masses - you go into hospital for an operation, for example, and the surgeon is told what to do by people phoning in? Perhaps after a while folk would learn to shut up unless they actually had something valid to add? Or perhaps we'd end up with a world where everything was decided simply by loud people? Hang on, I think I just described the house of commons....

Dave

(Ever noticed how right wing retirement makes you?)

 

[mlmrob]

An excellent day davejb. Dunno if you saw Sedgefield but Tetraites Style was not off today. The vibes in the ring spoke volumes. The horse looked like he needed another summer out at grass. He might be something next winter when he fills his frame.

 

[davejb]

Yesterday:
Report for : 20/03/2019
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/12 Odds: 3.5 (Return: 4.5)
Mkt filter 1/6 Odds: 3.5 (Return: 4.5)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/6 Odds: 3.5 0.8 (Return: 6.3)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 0.8 (Return: 1.8)

Total Out = 18 Total return (raw) = 10.8
Total wins: 3 / 18

Not great...

Today:
Not too bad thankfully. Tetraites Style went off favourite and did little, but later on Our Jerry was a very nice 7/2 winner - the other pair were both odds on, one at 4/6 the other 4/5, and both won... I only took the odds against pair, but it was nice to get 3/4 on the day considering recent results.

Tomorrow:

Newbury 15:25:00 [NH H] Class 4 [24.5f] Hcap [[13] run]
83 * 437622 Poperinghe Ginger (IRE) (Bf 6) Drawn 0/13 Mare
McPherson Graeme P 0-10(1) Woods K K 2-23(7)
jck - NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 8/1 3Fav



Newbury 15:25:00 [NH H] Class 4 [24.5f] Hcap [[13] run]
83 * 45275 Ballyart (IRE) (Bf 13) Drawn 0/13 Gelding
Twiston-Davies N A 2-33(8) Twiston-Davies Mr S 2-40(14)
- NH Handicap - fails ODDS - NO BET 10/1 6Fav



Dundalk 18:15:00 [AW] [6f] Hcap [[9] run]
76 * 0385283 Lilys Prince (IRE) (Bf 9) Drawn 4/9 (P) Gelding
Donnelly Garvan 0-3(0) OConnor Donagh 2-9(4)
gng dst jck or - AW Handicap - NO BET 13/2 4Fav



Dundalk 18:45:00 [AW] [8f] Stks [[7] run]
70 * 217448 Invasion Day (IRE) (Bf 5) Drawn 7/7 (P) Gelding
Lyons G M 0-4(1) Keane C T 2-13(5)
gng JCK - AW non-handicap - fails FORM and ODDS - NO BET 6/1 4Fav

Only the one then, and pretty speculative I would say.
I'm off to visit my daughter for a few days, she lives in Devon so my wife and I (and dog) are going to visit for a few days, popping out on Sunday to visit Nicky Henderson's yard with the Elite racing club. I've shifted ops over to the laptop (which I'm currently typing on and did tomorrow's cards on) so ought to be able to stay in touch and continue as normal. If I go quiet then something about my master plan fell through, in which case I'll be back on by Wednesday!

Dave

 

[davejb]

Yesterday:
Report for : 21/03/2019
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 5/16 Odds: 3.5 1.88 0.8 6.0 1.63 (Return: 18.81)
Mkt filter 3/10 Odds: 3.5 1.88 0.8 (Return: 9.18)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 5/14 Odds: 0.62 1.5 1.5 0.67 0.57 (Return: 9.86)
Mkt filter 3/4 Odds: 0.62 0.67 0.57 (Return: 4.86)

Total Out = 30 Total return (raw) = 28.67
Total wins: 10 / 30

- Plenty of winners, many at awfully short odds though.

Today Poperinghe Ginger ran 5th at 12/1 - I had an EW bet on him, curses!

Sorry, this'll be short and sweet as it's been a very long day!

Tomorrow:

Kelso 14:25:00 [NH H] Class 2 [16f] Hcap [[13] run]
113 * 1865013 Royal Reserve (Bf 17) Drawn 0/13 Gelding
Russell Miss Lucinda V 1-24(9) Fox Mr D R 1-11(4)
GNG DST JCK OR - NH Handicap - fails ODDS - NO BET 16/1 9Fav



Kelso 15:35:00 [NH H] Class 2 [26f] Hcap [[11] run]
92 * 3423141 Teescomponents Lad (Bf 8.5) Drawn 0/11 Gelding
Boanas Miss G 1-11(1) Chapman Mr R 0-18(4)
GNG JCK - NH Handicap - fails ODDS - NO BET 8/1 6Fav



Newbury 15:50:00 [NH C] Class 2 [20f] Hcap [[5] run]
106 * 8003754 Foxtail Hill (IRE) (Bf 4.5) Drawn 0/5 Gelding
Twiston-Davies N A 3-35(9) Twiston-Davies Mr S 2-42(16)
DST JCK OR - NH Handicap - fails ODDS - NO BET 4/1 4Fav



Newbury 17:35:00 [NH C] Class 3 [16.5f] Hcap [[8] run]
94 * 4P53144 Dicosimo (FR) (Bf 8) Drawn 0/8 Gelding
Greatrex W J 1-21(3) Jacob Daryl 5-30(12)
GNG DST JCK OR - NH Handicap - fails ODDS - NO BET 12/1 7Fav



Kempton AW 18:00:00 [AW] Class 5 [6f] Stks [[7] run]
59 * 5956706 Mystical Moon (IRE) (Bf 51) Drawn 1/7 (S) Filly
Griffiths D C 2-4(1) Dennis Mr P 4-16(7)
- AW non-handicap - fails FORM and ODDS - NO BET 33/1 7Fav

-as is becoming not all that unusual, nothing surfaces for tomorrow.

Dave

 

[davejb]

Yesterday:
Report for : 22/03/2019
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/10 Odds: 7.0 (Return: 8.0)
Mkt filter 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/5 Odds: 0.25 (Return: 1.25)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 0.25 (Return: 1.25)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/13 Odds: 2.25 9.0 (Return: 13.25)
Mkt filter 1/7 Odds: 2.25 (Return: 3.25)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/6 Odds: 40.0 (Return: 41.0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 34 Total return (raw) = 63.5
Total wins: 5 / 34

A fair day again there.

Tomorrow:

Exeter 14:40:00 [NH H] Class 4 [23f] Hcap [[9] run]
94 * 70032 Apple Mack (Bf 8) Drawn 0/9 Gelding
Mitford-Slade R 1-1(0) Nolan Mr M G 2-24(6)
gng jck - NH Handicap - fails ODDS - NO BET 10/1 7Fav



Carlisle 14:55:00 [NH C] Class 3 [20f] Stks [[5] run]
96 * 4241141 Charmant (FR) (Bf 2.38) Drawn 0/5 Gelding
Ewart J P L 1-8(5) Hughes Brian 10-46(24)
gng JCK - NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/4 1Fav



Carlisle 14:55:00 [NH C] Class 3 [20f] Stks [[5] run]
96 * 5114963 Sword Of Fate (IRE) (Bf 6) Drawn 0/5 Gelding
Kerr L 0-0(0) Bewley Mr J 1-9(2)
gng DST jck or - NH non-handicap - fails ODDS - NO BET 6/1 4Fav



Exeter 15:45:00 [NH C] Class 3 [19f] Hcap [[6] run]
101 * F304532 Diable De Sivola (FR) (Bf 3.5) Drawn 0/6 Gelding
Williams Nick 1-5(0) Kelly Miss E 1-9(1)
dst jck or - NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/2 1Fav



Exeter 16:55:00 [NH C] Class 5 [19f] Hcap [[9] run]
79 * 5P45102 Western Morning (IRE) (Bf 4.5) Drawn 0/9 Gelding
Harris M F 0-4(2) Jones Kevin 1-9(3)
gng JCK or - NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/2 2Fav



Carlisle 17:10:00 [NH C] Class 4 [26f] Hcap [[8] run]
94 * 3635721 Solid Strike (Bf 3.25) Drawn 0/8 Gelding
Collins Paul 1-1(0) Hughes Brian 10-46(24)
dst JCK or - NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 3/1 1Fav



Downpatrick 17:30:00 [NH F] [17.5f] Stks [[7] run]
64 * 62422 Multifactorial (IRE) (Bf 2.5) Drawn 0/7 Gelding
Elliott Gordon 7-85(20) ONeill Ms Lisa 1-10(1)
gng jck or - NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/4 1Fav

A few there then.
Dave

 

[davejb]

Still away from home, using the laptop, so apologies for the lack of waffle....back to normal Wednesday probably.

Yesterday:
Report for : 23/03/2019
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/9 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/5 Odds: 0.73 (Return: 1.73)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 0.73 (Return: 1.73)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/16 Odds: 6.0 5.5 (Return: 13.5)
Mkt filter 2/8 Odds: 6.0 5.5 (Return: 13.5)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 5/11 Odds: 2.0 1.0 5.0 0.33 1.38 (Return: 14.71)
Mkt filter 2/3 Odds: 2.0 0.33 (Return: 4.33)

Total Out = 41 Total return (raw) = 29.94
Total wins: 8 / 41

Mmmmm, not as good as it might have been.

Wincanton 14:45:00 [NH C] Class 4 [20f] Stks [[5] run]
112 * 10P0143 Jenkins (IRE) (Bf 2.25) Drawn 0/5 Gelding
Henderson N J 6-56(13) Bass Mr D R 2-20(7)
DST JCK or - NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 10/11 1Fav



Wincanton 16:15:00 [NH H] Class 3 [15.5f] Hcap [[9] run]
99 * 3168216 The Twisler (Bf 13) Drawn 0/9 Gelding
Mulholland N P 2-36(7) Scudamore Tom 3-33(9)
DST JCK or - NH Handicap - fails ODDS - NO BET 12/1 6Fav



Wolverhampton AW 18:45:00 [AW] Class 5 [6f] Hcap [[11] run]
58 * 98313 Distant Mirage (Bf 5) Drawn 3/11 (P) Filly
Tate James 1-8(3) Allan David 1-3(1)
gng DST - AW Handicap - NO BET 3/1 1Fav



Wolverhampton AW 18:45:00 [AW] Class 5 [6f] Hcap [[11] run]
58 * 032164 Fizzy Feet (IRE) (Bf 15) Drawn 6/11 (P) Filly
Loughnane David 0-7(2) Curtis B A 1-13(5)
GNG JCK - AW Handicap - NO BET 7/1 5Fav

Only one possible selection then it seems, let's see.

Dave

 

[davejb]

Yesterday:
Report for : 24/03/2019
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/2 Odds: 3.33 (Return: 4.33)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 3.33 (Return: 4.33)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/10 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/6 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/9 Odds: 0.83 2.75 (Return: 5.58)
Mkt filter 1/4 Odds: 0.83 (Return: 1.83)

Total Out = 25 Total return (raw) = 9.91
Total wins: 3 / 25

Not a good day there then!

Today :
Only the one bet, Jenkins - he never had the measure of the favourite and didn't get close, but was himself pretty well clear of the rest. He was jostled along quite early on, and although I wasn't thrilled to see him beaten I did find the way he stuck to the job under pressure a good sign, he kept trying despite being well beaten.

Tomorrow:

Clonmel 15:20:00 [NH H] [18.5f] Hcap [[18] run]
57 * 7FP0P52 My Forever Friend (IRE) (Bf 6) Drawn 0/18 Gelding
Hanlon John Joseph 0-3(0) Hamilton Mr T 1-6(1)
jck - NH Handicap - fails ODDS - NO BET 8/1 5Fav



Wolverhampton AW 17:00:00 [AW] Class 6 [14f] Hcap [[13] run]
58 * 4U74162 Top Rock Talula (IRE) (Bf 6.5) Drawn 1/13 (P) Filly
Greatrex W J 1-20(5) Greatrex Mr T 0-4(2)
gng - AW Handicap - NO BET 13/2 3Fav



Clonmel 17:20:00 [NH F] [16f] Stks [[14] run]
41 * 5282 Baboin (FR) (Bf 4) Drawn 0/14 Gelding
OBrien Joseph Patrick 5-42(10) OConnor Mr Derek 1-7(2)
dst jck or - NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 4/1 2Fav



Wolverhampton AW 18:00:00 [AW] Class 5 [9.5f] Hcap [[13] run]
58 * 0511242 Zorawar (FR) (Bf 4.5) Drawn 5/13 (P) Gelding
OMeara D 1-8(0) Gray S A 0-0(0)
GNG dst JCK - AW Handicap - NO BET 5/1 2Fav

Given the way the 'bets' have been lately, I'm not sure I have overly high hopes for a 4/1 2fav.... but we're certainly overdue a couple of winners.

Dave

 

[Dave]

Hi davejb,

Chesham pointed me in the direction of your posts. I have been looking at the spreadsheets that you have been producing and they look great I just need some help in try to understand them a bit better. I apologise in advance if I'm causing you work in answering the questions but I don't want to assume incorrectly.... I have tried to read back through the thread in case you had produced a guide but it is avery popular thread with many pages and I couldn't find what I was looking for.

On the dated spreadsheet
The headings below are from the dated spreadsheet e.g 26mar.xlsx

Filt - This is sometime highlighted for certain horse what does this mean
HWR - What does this mean ? And why are the figures sometimes highlighted by a blue background?
C_rtg - What does this mean ? And why are the figures sometimes highlighted by a blue background?
Gng - I'm assuming this is the Going but what are the numbers and highlights representing?
Dist - I'm assuming this is the Distance but what are the numbers and highlights representing?
Cls - I'm assuming this is the Class but what are the numbers and highlights representing?
Jck- I'm assuming this is the Jockey but what are the numbers and highlights representing?
OR - I'm assuming this is the Official Rating but what are the numbers and highlights representing?
Twin - What does this mean ? what are the numbers and highlights representing?
Trun- What does this mean ? what are the numbers and highlights representing??
T14% - What does this mean ? what are the numbers and highlights representing?

On the EPS chart Spreadsheet
I take this to be Early Pace and Speed looking at the contents of the spreadsheet. I think this sheet is pretty much self explanatory. The column C_rtg - What does this mean ? Also what is the * representing.

On the Full Ratings Spreadsheet
You have a rating in column 1 what is this rating? and what does the * next to the number signify?
You have a column Hcap c_rtg What does this mean ?
ORDiff What does this mean ? The official rating difference from what? and what does the highlighting signify.

I'm really sorry for all of the questions but I really do want to get to grips and understand them and any advice on how best to use them. Is there anything in particular that you look out for that signifies a potential selection or not?

Thanks in anticipation of your responses.

Cheers Dave

 

[davejb]

Hi,
Yes, lots of this info is sprinkled through 80 odd pages as things changed.... let's see if I make any mistakes!

Filt - a marker that shows a runner has passed a stable form check (Trainer has had a winner in past 14 days) a form check (placed 1,2 or 3 in last or second last run) and passed the c_rating check whereby it has a c_rating that is within 85% of the top c_rating in the race. (C-rtg in a moment).

HWR is checking whether the horse has won of this OR, and indicates how today's handicap rating (OR) compares to the horses best winning OR in the past 18 months. For example Benton's Lad (today's first race at Hereford, 2.00) - if you look at his form data and find winning runs you'll see he won of an OR of 97 at Southwell on 23 May 2018 (also off 89 on 20 April 18 at Southwell) - so Benton's Lad has a highest winning rating of 97, today he races off a mark of 90 and therefore is 7lbs lower in the handicap than he was when winning last May....he has 'won off a 7lb higher mark' which could be considered a good sign that he might do okay today. The 97 rating has been highlighted on the card to make it stand out better, helping you to spot similarly leniently handicapped runners. (Of course if the race isn't actually a handicap that's not all that important...)

C_rtg The C is for combined, it's my own speed rating added to 85% of the horses RPR to give a combination of a form based handicap and a speed rating one (the 85% of RPR is because RPRs are generally rather higher than my speed ratings, so it sets them on a more level standing). It's really just a choice for people who prefer some element of form based handicap. Highlighted value for c_rtg and speed rating show which is the top rating in the race... just to help spot the top rated quickly, also helps you see if the RPR and speed ratings are broadly in agreement about who's the best.
In the race info (the purple block at the top of each race card) the top c_rtg in the race is given, and the 'cutoff' figure is the value of c_rtg, in that race, that is required to pass the c_rtg check for the 'filt' marker.

Dist, Gng, etc values 0,1 or 2 - a 2 indicates the horse has won (since April 2018):-
dst - at the race distance plus or minus half a furlong
gng - on the same going as today
cls - at the same class as today's race
jck - carrying the same jockey as today
or - at the same OR as today, or a higher OR

a '1' indicates the same as above, but the horse has placed rather than won.
a '0' the horse has not won or placed on today's going etc etc

Total is all the 1s and 2s added, a horse can have up to 10 pts for a win in all 5 categories

Twin -number of wins by trainer in last 14 days
Trun - number of runs (trainer, 14 days)
T14% - wins/runs expressed as a percentage, again for past 14 days

The highlight colours show higher percentages of winners - light green for 10-19%, dark for 20%+

EPS chart

c_rtg as above, it's the same combo rating
the asterisk shows that the horse's top speed rating was gained on its latest run

Full ratings

Col 1 is the speed rating for the horse (ie the speed rating I worked out for it) - going back over its past 6 runs, The asterisk is as before, top rating was gained lto.

It's not 'HCAP c_rtg' - if you look, the top line of info in purple is about the race, ie where it is, when it is, and so on - included there is either 'HCAP' or 'STKS' to tell you if it's a handicap race or not. The line beneath it reads 'Rating Name c_rtg...' etc and is the column headings for the data itself. So where you read 'Hcap c_rtg' it was actually 'this race is a handicap, and this column has the current c_rtg for each runner' - the c_rtg being as described above.

The OR diff is the difference between the horse's current OR and it's HWR (ie shows how today's handicap mark compares to the highest OR it has won at in the past 18 months or so). Going back to the example I used earlier Benton's Lad is racing today off an OR of 90, but has previously won off 97, so he is 7 lbs better off at the weights than he has shown he can handle.... so in the OR diff column you see the figure 7 (for 7lb well in) and it is coloured in to make it easy to spot all the runners in the race who might be considered well handicapped on that criteria.
Some runners, however, have yet to win off their current mark (or better) - the horse above Benton's Lad (Kristjano) has a minus 3 in the column, so Kristjano, if he won today, would be winning off a 3lb higher mark than he had previously.

Potential selections

Well, I do put up a program generated list each day that is based on the most recent brilliant idea, which is to pick horses that set their best speed figure last time out, that are top rated in the race today, and are in the top 2 or 3 in the betting - like all brilliant ideas this worked very well for a month or two but has been running a bit flat for a while now, and I doubt the switch to the flat will help matters.

The various ratings and highlights in the data, and in fact the different ways they are presented in the spreadsheets, are meant to save some of the work that you'd traditionally consider doing when weighing up a race - it is easy to check, for example, if today's race is going to be on heavy going, which horses have previously won or placed in the mud. The ratings, like all ratings, are attempting to help you decided which horses have a genuine chance, and it's easy to see which stables have 0 wins from 20 in the past fortnight and who has won 50% in the same period.... but it all comes down to how you want to pick your bets, I'm a struggling punter like the next bloke - there's no magic wand in there identifying the right way to pick your bets. The sheets are a tool.

There are a few people on this board who could probably make a fair few quid over time betting on horses, if you read through a lot of material you'll find people it is worth paying attention to, but at the moment this thread is about my own journey which is as yet far from over. As I produced all this stuff to help myself make sense of all the data it seemed reasonable to share it, that doesn't make me any better than many others at showing a profit! You are welcome to whatever I post.

Dave

 

[Chesham]

 

[davejb]

yesterday:

Report for : 25/03/2019
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/10 Odds: 7.0 6.0 (Return: 15.0)
Mkt filter 2/5 Odds: 7.0 6.0 (Return: 15.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/2 Odds: 0.67 (Return: 1.67)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 0.67 (Return: 1.67)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/4 Odds: 8.0 (Return: 9.0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/2 Odds: 8.0 (Return: 9.0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 18 Total return (raw) = 34.67
Total wins: 5 / 18

A better day there for a change.

Today:
Only the one runner, who came about 75th - well 7th then. Okay up to about 2-3f out but then didn't seem to have anything left.

Tomorrow:
Market Rasen 14:10:00 [NH H] Class 4 [17f] Stks [[6] run]
95 * 37595 Welland (Bf 11) Drawn 0/6 Gelding
Sly Mrs P 0-4(1) Woods K K 2-21(8)
gng dst jck or - NH non-handicap - fails ODDS - NO BET 14/1 3Fav



Market Rasen 16:20:00 [NH H] Class 3 [23f] Hcap [[7] run]
102 * 8621532 Ballyhome (IRE) (Bf 5.5) Drawn 0/7 Gelding
OBrien Fergal 1-16(5) Brace Connor 2-12(6)
GNG dst JCK - NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/2 2Fav



Southwell AW 16:30:00 [AW] Class 6 [6f] Hcap [[14] run]
56 * 2212352 Liamba (Bf 4) Drawn 8/14 (P) Filly
OMeara D 1-7(0) Nolan D 0-1(0)
gng dst jck or - AW Handicap - NO BET 2/1 1Fav



Southwell AW 17:05:00 [AW] Class 6 [8f] Hcap [[14] run]
31 * 2388151 Alpha Tauri (USA) (Bf 9) Drawn 4/14 (P) Gelding
Smith C 0-0(0) Bullock Miss Emily 0-1(0)
GNG DST OR - AW Handicap - NO BET 8/1 5Fav



Market Rasen 17:20:00 [NH H] Class 4 [19f] Hcap [[9] run]
79 * 5U26354 Siannes Star (IRE) (Bf 9) Drawn 0/9 Gelding
Ellison B 2-7(1) ONeill John 4-13(7)
gng or - NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/1 3Fav

As things haven't gone very well lately I'm posting these with more hope than belief..... let's see what happens.

Dave

 

[Dave]

Hi,
Yes, lots of this info is sprinkled through 80 odd pages as things changed.... let's see if I make any mistakes!

Filt - a marker that shows a runner has passed a stable form check (Trainer has had a winner in past 14 days) a form check (placed 1,2 or 3 in last or second last run) and passed the c_rating check whereby it has a c_rating that is within 85% of the top c_rating in the race. (C-rtg in a moment).

HWR is checking whether the horse has won of this OR, and indicates how today's handicap rating (OR) compares to the horses best winning OR in the past 18 months. For example Benton's Lad (today's first race at Hereford, 2.00) - if you look at his form data and find winning runs you'll see he won of an OR of 97 at Southwell on 23 May 2018 (also off 89 on 20 April 18 at Southwell) - so Benton's Lad has a highest winning rating of 97, today he races off a mark of 90 and therefore is 7lbs lower in the handicap than he was when winning last May....he has 'won off a 7lb higher mark' which could be considered a good sign that he might do okay today. The 97 rating has been highlighted on the card to make it stand out better, helping you to spot similarly leniently handicapped runners. (Of course if the race isn't actually a handicap that's not all that important...)

C_rtg The C is for combined, it's my own speed rating added to 85% of the horses RPR to give a combination of a form based handicap and a speed rating one (the 85% of RPR is because RPRs are generally rather higher than my speed ratings, so it sets them on a more level standing). It's really just a choice for people who prefer some element of form based handicap. Highlighted value for c_rtg and speed rating show which is the top rating in the race... just to help spot the top rated quickly, also helps you see if the RPR and speed ratings are broadly in agreement about who's the best.
In the race info (the purple block at the top of each race card) the top c_rtg in the race is given, and the 'cutoff' figure is the value of c_rtg, in that race, that is required to pass the c_rtg check for the 'filt' marker.

Dist, Gng, etc values 0,1 or 2 - a 2 indicates the horse has won (since April 2018):-
dst - at the race distance plus or minus half a furlong
gng - on the same going as today
cls - at the same class as today's race
jck - carrying the same jockey as today
or - at the same OR as today, or a higher OR

a '1' indicates the same as above, but the horse has placed rather than won.
a '0' the horse has not won or placed on today's going etc etc

Total is all the 1s and 2s added, a horse can have up to 10 pts for a win in all 5 categories

Twin -number of wins by trainer in last 14 days
Trun - number of runs (trainer, 14 days)
T14% - wins/runs expressed as a percentage, again for past 14 days

The highlight colours show higher percentages of winners - light green for 10-19%, dark for 20%+

EPS chart

c_rtg as above, it's the same combo rating
the asterisk shows that the horse's top speed rating was gained on its latest run

Full ratings

Col 1 is the speed rating for the horse (ie the speed rating I worked out for it) - going back over its past 6 runs, The asterisk is as before, top rating was gained lto.

It's not 'HCAP c_rtg' - if you look, the top line of info in purple is about the race, ie where it is, when it is, and so on - included there is either 'HCAP' or 'STKS' to tell you if it's a handicap race or not. The line beneath it reads 'Rating Name c_rtg...' etc and is the column headings for the data itself. So where you read 'Hcap c_rtg' it was actually 'this race is a handicap, and this column has the current c_rtg for each runner' - the c_rtg being as described above.

The OR diff is the difference between the horse's current OR and it's HWR (ie shows how today's handicap mark compares to the highest OR it has won at in the past 18 months or so). Going back to the example I used earlier Benton's Lad is racing today off an OR of 90, but has previously won off 97, so he is 7 lbs better off at the weights than he has shown he can handle.... so in the OR diff column you see the figure 7 (for 7lb well in) and it is coloured in to make it easy to spot all the runners in the race who might be considered well handicapped on that criteria.
Some runners, however, have yet to win off their current mark (or better) - the horse above Benton's Lad (Kristjano) has a minus 3 in the column, so Kristjano, if he won today, would be winning off a 3lb higher mark than he had previously.

Potential selections

Well, I do put up a program generated list each day that is based on the most recent brilliant idea, which is to pick horses that set their best speed figure last time out, that are top rated in the race today, and are in the top 2 or 3 in the betting - like all brilliant ideas this worked very well for a month or two but has been running a bit flat for a while now, and I doubt the switch to the flat will help matters.

The various ratings and highlights in the data, and in fact the different ways they are presented in the spreadsheets, are meant to save some of the work that you'd traditionally consider doing when weighing up a race - it is easy to check, for example, if today's race is going to be on heavy going, which horses have previously won or placed in the mud. The ratings, like all ratings, are attempting to help you decided which horses have a genuine chance, and it's easy to see which stables have 0 wins from 20 in the past fortnight and who has won 50% in the same period.... but it all comes down to how you want to pick your bets, I'm a struggling punter like the next bloke - there's no magic wand in there identifying the right way to pick your bets. The sheets are a tool.

There are a few people on this board who could probably make a fair few quid over time betting on horses, if you read through a lot of material you'll find people it is worth paying attention to, but at the moment this thread is about my own journey which is as yet far from over. As I produced all this stuff to help myself make sense of all the data it seemed reasonable to share it, that doesn't make me any better than many others at showing a profit! You are welcome to whatever I post.

Dave

davejb thank you so much for your superb reply and please accept my apology for the amount of time that it has taken to answer my questions.

I now fully understand the information that the sheets are providing and I will be using them to try to improve my selection process. You have certainly put together some comprehensive information and some helpful time saving indicators.

Thanks Dave

 

[Outlander]

Hi,
Yes, lots of this info is sprinkled through 80 odd pages as things changed.... let's see if I make any mistakes!

Filt - a marker that shows a runner has passed a stable form check (Trainer has had a winner in past 14 days) a form check (placed 1,2 or 3 in last or second last run) and passed the c_rating check whereby it has a c_rating that is within 85% of the top c_rating in the race. (C-rtg in a moment).

HWR is checking whether the horse has won of this OR, and indicates how today's handicap rating (OR) compares to the horses best winning OR in the past 18 months. For example Benton's Lad (today's first race at Hereford, 2.00) - if you look at his form data and find winning runs you'll see he won of an OR of 97 at Southwell on 23 May 2018 (also off 89 on 20 April 18 at Southwell) - so Benton's Lad has a highest winning rating of 97, today he races off a mark of 90 and therefore is 7lbs lower in the handicap than he was when winning last May....he has 'won off a 7lb higher mark' which could be considered a good sign that he might do okay today. The 97 rating has been highlighted on the card to make it stand out better, helping you to spot similarly leniently handicapped runners. (Of course if the race isn't actually a handicap that's not all that important...)

C_rtg The C is for combined, it's my own speed rating added to 85% of the horses RPR to give a combination of a form based handicap and a speed rating one (the 85% of RPR is because RPRs are generally rather higher than my speed ratings, so it sets them on a more level standing). It's really just a choice for people who prefer some element of form based handicap. Highlighted value for c_rtg and speed rating show which is the top rating in the race... just to help spot the top rated quickly, also helps you see if the RPR and speed ratings are broadly in agreement about who's the best.
In the race info (the purple block at the top of each race card) the top c_rtg in the race is given, and the 'cutoff' figure is the value of c_rtg, in that race, that is required to pass the c_rtg check for the 'filt' marker.

Dist, Gng, etc values 0,1 or 2 - a 2 indicates the horse has won (since April 2018):-
dst - at the race distance plus or minus half a furlong
gng - on the same going as today
cls - at the same class as today's race
jck - carrying the same jockey as today
or - at the same OR as today, or a higher OR

a '1' indicates the same as above, but the horse has placed rather than won.
a '0' the horse has not won or placed on today's going etc etc

Total is all the 1s and 2s added, a horse can have up to 10 pts for a win in all 5 categories

Twin -number of wins by trainer in last 14 days
Trun - number of runs (trainer, 14 days)
T14% - wins/runs expressed as a percentage, again for past 14 days

The highlight colours show higher percentages of winners - light green for 10-19%, dark for 20%+

EPS chart

c_rtg as above, it's the same combo rating
the asterisk shows that the horse's top speed rating was gained on its latest run

Full ratings

Col 1 is the speed rating for the horse (ie the speed rating I worked out for it) - going back over its past 6 runs, The asterisk is as before, top rating was gained lto.

It's not 'HCAP c_rtg' - if you look, the top line of info in purple is about the race, ie where it is, when it is, and so on - included there is either 'HCAP' or 'STKS' to tell you if it's a handicap race or not. The line beneath it reads 'Rating Name c_rtg...' etc and is the column headings for the data itself. So where you read 'Hcap c_rtg' it was actually 'this race is a handicap, and this column has the current c_rtg for each runner' - the c_rtg being as described above.

The OR diff is the difference between the horse's current OR and it's HWR (ie shows how today's handicap mark compares to the highest OR it has won at in the past 18 months or so). Going back to the example I used earlier Benton's Lad is racing today off an OR of 90, but has previously won off 97, so he is 7 lbs better off at the weights than he has shown he can handle.... so in the OR diff column you see the figure 7 (for 7lb well in) and it is coloured in to make it easy to spot all the runners in the race who might be considered well handicapped on that criteria.
Some runners, however, have yet to win off their current mark (or better) - the horse above Benton's Lad (Kristjano) has a minus 3 in the column, so Kristjano, if he won today, would be winning off a 3lb higher mark than he had previously.

Potential selections

Well, I do put up a program generated list each day that is based on the most recent brilliant idea, which is to pick horses that set their best speed figure last time out, that are top rated in the race today, and are in the top 2 or 3 in the betting - like all brilliant ideas this worked very well for a month or two but has been running a bit flat for a while now, and I doubt the switch to the flat will help matters.

The various ratings and highlights in the data, and in fact the different ways they are presented in the spreadsheets, are meant to save some of the work that you'd traditionally consider doing when weighing up a race - it is easy to check, for example, if today's race is going to be on heavy going, which horses have previously won or placed in the mud. The ratings, like all ratings, are attempting to help you decided which horses have a genuine chance, and it's easy to see which stables have 0 wins from 20 in the past fortnight and who has won 50% in the same period.... but it all comes down to how you want to pick your bets, I'm a struggling punter like the next bloke - there's no magic wand in there identifying the right way to pick your bets. The sheets are a tool.

There are a few people on this board who could probably make a fair few quid over time betting on horses, if you read through a lot of material you'll find people it is worth paying attention to, but at the moment this thread is about my own journey which is as yet far from over. As I produced all this stuff to help myself make sense of all the data it seemed reasonable to share it, that doesn't make me any better than many others at showing a profit! You are welcome to whatever I post.

Dave

Superb explanation, fantastic sheets.Thanks for posting every day.

 

[davejb]

No problem - I do these for myself, it is little extra work to make them available on here for anyone who wants to make use of them, and I'm glad people find them useful.

Yesterday:
Report for : 26/03/2019
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/7 Odds: 3.0 (Return: 4.0)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 3.0 (Return: 4.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/2 Odds: 0.5 0.73 (Return: 3.23)
Mkt filter 2/2 Odds: 0.5 0.73 (Return: 3.23)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/7 Odds: 7.0 (Return: 8.0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/10 Odds: 0.8 0.67 (Return: 3.47)
Mkt filter 2/6 Odds: 0.8 0.67 (Return: 3.47)

Total Out = 26 Total return (raw) = 18.7
Total wins: 6 / 26

- A reasonable number of winners, but the prices were too short to show a profit.

Today:
There were 2 bets, one won at 15/8, having been available at lunchtime at 9/4, the other lost sadly, giving a profit on the day for a change at least.

Tomorrow:
Newcastle AW 14:00:00 [NH H] Class 4 [16.5f] Hcap [[6] run]
90 * 7F333 Lady Kyria (FR) (Bf 8) Drawn 0/6 Mare
Kirby P A 4-17(4) Dowson Mr T 1-14(2)
gng dst jck or - NH Handicap - fails ODDS - NO BET 4/1 3Fav



Newcastle AW 14:30:00 [NH C] Class 3 [23.5f] Hcap [[5] run]
92 * 1P17611 Ascot De Bruyere (FR) (Bf 2.38) Drawn 0/5 Gelding
Ewart J P L 1-11(5) Fox Steven 1-5(3)
GNG DST JCK - NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/4 1Fav



Warwick 14:40:00 [NH C] Class 4 [24.5f] Hcap [[15] run]
85 * 846PP54 Danseur Du Large (FR) (Bf 11) Drawn 0/15 Gelding
Gundry Miss Polly 0-6(0) Twiston-Davies Mr S 1-37(10)
- NH Handicap - fails ODDS - NO BET 7/1 4Fav



Wolverhampton AW 14:50:00 [AW] Class 4 [12f] Hcap [[6] run]
55 * 02212 Gantier (Bf 3.25) Drawn 5/6 (S) Gelding
Gosden J H M 1-4(2) ONeill K T 3-25(7)
GNG jck - AW Handicap - NO BET 5/2 2Fav



Wolverhampton AW 15:25:00 [AW] Class 5 [8.5f] Hcap [[7] run]
63 * 0532152 Yusra (Bf 4.5) Drawn 2/7 (P) Filly
Botti M 1-7(1) Malune Gabriele 0-8(1)
GNG DST or - AW Handicap - NO BET 7/2 3Fav



Newcastle AW 16:10:00 [NH H] Class 4 [16.5f] Stks [[11] run]
86 * 5740622 Lucky Lover Boy (IRE) (Bf 3.25) Drawn 0/11 Gelding
Greenall Oliver 2-16(2) Brooke Henry 2-23(6)
gng dst jck - NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/4 1Fav

- Two for tomorrow then.
Dave

 

[davejb]

Yesterday:
Report for : 27/03/2019
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/9 Odds: 33.0 (Return: 34.0)
Mkt filter 0/5 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/7 Odds: 0.91 (Return: 1.91)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 0.91 (Return: 1.91)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/5 Odds: 5.0 1.88 (Return: 8.88)
Mkt filter 2/3 Odds: 5.0 1.88 (Return: 8.88)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 23 Total return (raw) = 44.79
Total wins: 4 / 23

An average win rate at best, but good odds make all the difference.

Today:
1 winner from 2, Lucky Lover Boy won at 11/4, although he did so by a nostril - the line came just soon enough. The other, Ascot De Bruyere led early but looked like he was standing still as the other three swept past him towards the finish. Well beaten, he managed to rally into 2nd after Jet Master unluckily fell at the last. Still, another winner is very welcome.

Tomorrow:
Wetherby 14:20:00 [NH H] Class 4 [16f] Stks [[9] run]
89 * 1304133 Denmead (Bf 3) Drawn 0/9 Gelding
Skelton Daniel 7-40(10) Skelton Harry 6-25(11)
GNG DST JCK OR - NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 6/4 1Fav



Newcastle AW 20:00:00 [AW] Class 6 [5f] Hcap [[14] run]
54 * 7605655 Angel Eyes (Bf 17) Drawn 4/14 Filly
Riches John 0-1(0) Walsh R P 0-3(0)
- AW Handicap - NO BET 25/1 11Fav

One for tomorrow then.

Dave

 

[davejb]

Yesterday:
Report for : 28/03/2019
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/7 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/5 Odds: 0.25 14.0 (Return: 16.25)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 0.25 (Return: 1.25)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/7 Odds: 3.5 (Return: 4.5)
Mkt filter 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/5 Odds: 2.75 (Return: 3.75)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 2.75 (Return: 3.75)

Total Out = 24 Total return (raw) = 24.5
Total wins: 4 / 24

Well, spend the 50p wisely.....

Today:
Denmead won - available in the morning at 10/11 (according to Betfair Evens initially) was good enough for a bet, although not winning much it all helps. SP was 4/5 and to be honest I'd have skipped it at that price given the run of poor bets that lasted up to the start of this week.

Tomorrow:


Stratford 13:55:00 [NH H] Class 4 [16.5f] Stks [[14] run]
95 * 61415 Petit Palais (Bf 3.25) Drawn 0/14 Gelding
George T R 2-17(9) Burke Mr J J 0-17(8)
DST JCK OR - NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 2/1 1Fav



Stratford 14:30:00 [NH H] Class 5 [18.5f] Stks [[9] run]
92 * 2367532 American Tom (FR) (Bf 2.25) Drawn 0/9 Gelding
Murphy Olly 4-23(5) England David 1-9(3)
gng jck or - NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 6/4 1Fav



Kempton AW 15:15:00 [AW] Class 2 [11f] Hcap [[16] run]
85 * 1065054 Manjaam (IRE) (Bf 26) Drawn 7/16 (P) Gelding
Williams Ian 3-22(4) Kingscote Richard 5-20(9)
OR - AW Handicap - NO BET 25/1 12Fav



Stratford 15:40:00 [NH H] Class 3 [26.5f] Hcap [[7] run]
106 * 2427322 Tea Time Fred (Bf 8) Drawn 0/7 Gelding
Gardner Mrs S 1-12(1) Fuller Miss P 2-11(4)
gng dst - NH Handicap - fails ODDS - NO BET 10/1 6Fav



Kempton AW 15:50:00 [AW] Class 4 [7f] Stks [[9] run]
70 * 35233 Chatham House (Bf 5) Drawn 1/9 (P) Colt
Hannon (Jnr) Richard 2-15(2) Levey S M 2-12(6)
dst or - AW non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 7/2 2Fav

- Three possibles there then, let's hope for at least one of them to do the job,,,,the seconditis run lasted long enough so a good few days would balance things out nicely.

As it;'s the Lincoln tomorrow I would normally look for a possible small bet - Auxerre is the hot favourite and you can understand the reasoning, but I can't get enthusiastic about a horse so far down my ratings... he may well be a group class horse in a handicap, I have seen (numerous times) a big race winner come from well down my listings as many good horses in better races simply don't blaze fast times - but there's no value there for me. So I'll probably go for Kynren, who I have as clear top rated, as long as he's not backed down to a silly price.
Dave

 

[davejb]

Yesterday:
Report for : 29/03/2019
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/15 Odds: 4.5 2.75 (Return: 9.25)
Mkt filter 2/9 Odds: 4.5 2.75 (Return: 9.25)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/4 Odds: 3.5 (Return: 4.5)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/9 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/6 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/5 Odds: 0.8 0.18 (Return: 2.98)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 0.18 (Return: 1.18)

Total Out = 33 Total return (raw) = 16.73
Total wins: 5 / 33

Fairly blah there then,

Today:
One winner, Petit Palais, at 5/4 SP - Chatham House came pretty close at something like 5/2... he was 4/1 at lunchtime.
My Lincoln guess was Kynren, who came 2nd.

Tomorrow:

Limerick 14:20:00 [NH H] [16f] Stks [[11] run]
106 * 7310 Star Max (GER) (Bf 5.5) Drawn 0/11 Gelding
OBrien Joseph Patrick 3-20(3) Blackmore Miss Rachel 1-25(6)
DST JCK - NH non-handicap - fails ODDS - NO BET 6/1 3Fav



Limerick 14:55:00 [NH H] [16f] Stks [[11] run]
103 * 1222214 Black Tears (Bf 2.38) Drawn 0/11 Mare
Elliott Gordon 6-36(12) Russell D N 3-22(10)
DST JCK - NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/4 1Fav

One for tomorrow then, makes a nice change from having half a dozen on a Sunday....

Dave

 

[davejb]

Yesterday:
Report for : 30/03/2019
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/13 Odds: 4.0 (Return: 5.0)
Mkt filter 1/6 Odds: 4.0 (Return: 5.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/10 Odds: 0.62 3.33 1.0 (Return: 7.95)
Mkt filter 2/2 Odds: 0.62 1.0 (Return: 3.62)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/9 Odds: 4.0 (Return: 5.0)
Mkt filter 0/5 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/5 Odds: 1.25 0.22 (Return: 3.47)
Mkt filter 2/4 Odds: 1.25 0.22 (Return: 3.47)

Total Out = 37 Total return (raw) = 21.42
Total wins: 7 / 37
- could have done with better odds. Handicaps aren't performing very well.

Today - Black Tears didn't run due to the going... although you can't help wondering how anyone can use that as an excuse when the going is described as 'good' - I suspect that when I process the race times tomorrow I'll find the going was rather faster than advertised.

The 'no bet' runner, Star Max, won at 4/1 - I think it's probably a good idea for me to repeat what I said about this method, the runners that are noted as 'no bet' are top rated with best rating last time out etc just like the 'bet' selections, but the type of race, number of runners, and market position don't align for the 'no bet' ones the way they need to - top rated/fastest last time out runners that are forecast 3rd favourite in 11 runner non-handicaps don't win as often as those rated fav/2fav and the reduction in win rate is not sufficiently offset by the better odds. I do periodically review things like win rates and the return on investment to check that such limits are still worth applying.

Tomorrow:
Ludlow 14:15:00 [NH H] Class 4 [21.5f] Stks [[7] run]
81 * 1141 Dr Sanderson (IRE) (Bf 2.25) Drawn 0/7 Gelding
Nicholls P F 4-19(7) Carver Mr B 1-6(5)
GNG - NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/4 1Fav



Chelmsford AW 16:45:00 [AW] Class 5 [10f] Hcap [[9] run]
50 * 868634 Fanfaronade (USA) (Bf 5.5) Drawn 3/9 (P) Filly
Gosden J H M 3-9(4) Mackay Nicky 0-0(0)
gng dst or - AW Handicap - NO BET 5/1 4Fav



Chelmsford AW 17:15:00 [AW] Class 5 [10f] Hcap [[10] run]
56 * 70081 Overtrumped (Bf 8) Drawn 8/10 (P) Filly
Murphy Mike 0-0(0) Turner Hayley 0-10(2)
DST JCK - AW Handicap - NO BET 7/1 4Fav



Ludlow 17:30:00 [NH H] Class 4 [16f] Stks [[12] run]
66 * 42544 Jaunty Soria (Bf 17) Drawn 0/12 Mare
Eckley B J 0-0(0) Dunne R T 4-28(14)
or - NH non-handicap - fails ODDS - NO BET 14/1 4Fav

So one for tomorrow, ground willing.
Dave

 

[davejb]

Yesterday:

Report for : 31/03/2019
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/2 Odds: 2.5 (Return: 3.5)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/6 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/5 Odds: 4.0 0.62 (Return: 6.62)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 16 Total return (raw) = 10.12
Total wins: 3 / 16

As the day before, poor odds and only the non handicaps are firing. Taking the top rated in non-handicaps as a starting point is not a bad bet lately.

Today:
A nice 9/4 winner from the sole selection, Dr Sanderson, who won readily enough.

Tomorrow:
Lingfield AW 16:30:00 [AW] Class 5 [16f] Hcap [[11] run]
60 * 5536111 Singing The Blues (IRE) (Bf 4) Drawn 11/11 (P) Gelding
Millman B R 1-8(1) Bishop Mr C 2-10(4)
GNG - AW Handicap - NO BET 7/2 3Fav



Wolverhampton AW 19:30:00 [AW] Class 5 [12f] Hcap [[7] run]
45 * 8667 Another Reason (IRE) (Bf 17) Drawn 8/7 (S) Gelding
Murphy Olly 4-22(3) Morris Luke 1-32(4)
- AW Handicap - NO BET 14/1 7Fav

- So no bets for tomorrow I'm afraid.

Dave