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Early days

davejb

Mare
Yesterday:
Report for : 20/08/2019
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/15 Odds: 1.63 14.0 20.0 (Return: 38.63)
Mkt filter 3/6 Odds: 1.63 14.0 20.0 (Return: 38.63)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/7 Odds: 3.5 3.0 (Return: 8.5)
Mkt filter 2/6 Odds: 3.5 3.0 (Return: 8.5)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/10 Odds: 6.5 8.0 (Return: 16.5)
Mkt filter 1/5 Odds: 6.5 (Return: 7.5)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/4 Odds: 0.8 (Return: 1.8)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 36 Total return (raw) = 65.43
Total wins: 8 / 36

I think the appropriate term is, ahem, kerching.

Today:
Three odds on shots, so three no bets anyway, and all three lost. What are the odds? Oh, yes, well, 4/6 by 4/6 by 4/5 I guess now you ask.....

Tomorrow:


Stratford 15:15:00 [NH H] Class 5 [17f] Hcap [[14] run]
76 * 05942U5 Naasik (Bf 7) Drawn 0/14 Gelding
Norton J R 0-1(0) Armson Mr P 0-4(3) Days : 27
gng dst or
Passes: Odds
Fails: Form Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 6/1 3Fav


York 15:35:00 [Flat] Group 1 [12f] Stks [[4] run]
94 * 1111111 Enable (Bf 1.29) Drawn 1/4 (P) Mare
Gosden J H M 8-31(12) Dettori L 1-3(3) Days : 26
GNG DST JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
Flat non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 2/7 1Fav

Enable would not be a bet, not just because these selections are doing so poorly lately, but because she's bound to go off well odds on.
I won't be betting on either.

Sorry to be a bit late, I was at York today for the racing with my wife and didn't get back until around 8.
Dave
 

Attachments

davejb

Mare
yesterday:
Report for : 21/08/2019
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/20 Odds: 6.5 3.0 2.5 (Return: 15.0)
Mkt filter 2/7 Odds: 3.0 2.5 (Return: 7.5)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/13 Odds: 2.75 0.57 (Return: 5.32)
Mkt filter 1/4 Odds: 0.57 (Return: 1.57)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/6 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 43 Total return (raw) = 20.32
Total wins: 5 / 43

A poor day there compared to recent efforts.

today:
Well, I can hardly cite having picked Enable as a major tip, can I? Unfortunately the odds about Naasik proved about right, 9/2 3rd.

tomorrow:
Ffos Las 13:45:00 [Flat] Class 6 [7.5f] Stks [[12] run]
63 * 6754842 Lexington Quest (IRE) (Bf 7) Drawn 9/12 (E) Gelding
Hannon (Jnr) Richard 7-77(28) Sweeney Fergus 0-11(3) Days : 14
gng dst or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
Flat non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 5/1 1Fav


York 14:25:00 [Flat] Group 2 [16.5f] Stks [[5] run]
93 * 7241122 Dee Ex Bee (Bf 5.5) Drawn 4/5 (E) Colt
Johnston M 13-65(18) Sousa Silvestre De 6-34(15) Days : 24
gng DST JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
Flat non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 7/2 2Fav


Chelmsford AW 17:45:00 [AW] Class 6 [6f] Stks [[6] run]
41 * 5681 Foad (Bf 2.63) Drawn 3/6 (P) Colt
Dunlop E A L 2-16(5) Doyle Hollie 6-56(23) Days : 13
DST
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
AW non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 11/10 1Fav


Salisbury 18:50:00 [Flat] Listed Race [8f] Stks [[6] run]
68 * 5111 Governor Of Punjab (IRE) (Bf 3.75) Drawn 5/6 (P) Colt
Johnston M 13-65(18) Norton Francis 2-36(16) Days : 22
GNG JCK
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
Flat non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 7/2 2Fav

What a race that was today! It was a shame that there were only 4 runners but 3 of them were pretty good horses that stood a chance, I await the third Arc with keen anticipation.

For tomorrow I prefer Battaash, and think Mab's Cross is more the chief danger - as always it will all depend on how he behaves before the stalls open, so if I do have a bet it'll be seconds before the off. Ten Sovereigns has a big reputation currently and I can understand why he has a lot of support, but I think for blistering speed Battaash has a few mph in hand.... especially if the wind is blowing down the straight again, a tail wind could come in useful. We'll see how this pans out, let's hope for another great feature race - we've one each day at 3.35 and they've been pretty great so far.

Dave
 

Attachments

Outlander

Yearling
Today I bet 5 of them I liked, Lucan, Tally’s son , Eye of the storm, jagerbond and haraz, one winner so far but that all you need.
@davejb The one that got away Haraz , I backed it at 120 on betfair last week top rated, 2nd top rated today 100/1 SP wins, not a penny on grrrrrrr, I did give it some consideration and left it out of my bets because of the woeful run when I backed last week, kicking myself
 

davejb

Mare
Them's the breaks :D @Outlander

If you find you are doing okay with such then perhaps you could explain to others how you are using the ratings? I appreciate it's not rocket science perhaps, but many on here do struggle to find a way to find a winner (including my own daily selections - Dee Ex Bee was never going to beat Stradivarius). There is no doubt at all that the ratings throw up decent winners now and again, and obviously the win rate when using outsiders will be quite low, but learning which to avoid or go with is a skill that could pay off pretty well.

Battaash - I did say that the tail wind might come in handy - and he beats Dayjur's record from 1990 in the process, so he did indeed have a few mph in hand. I'm a bit disappointed in Mab's Cross' performance, she finished well but the bird had flown, and this was a race for real speedballs. Like most people I did think Ten Sovereigns would do more, but he just couldn't handle the pace over 5 - back over 6 or 7 no doubt he'll do well enough.

For the Ebor - who knows, I'm no use at handicaps.

Dave
 

Outlander

Yearling
Them's the breaks :D @Outlander



For the Ebor - who knows, I'm no use at handicaps.

Dave
I think your rating are superb in handicaps, using your ratings I don't have a method as such I just note horses in double figure odds in the top 3 of your rating that are experienced (must have an OR) only look at Flat racing, then I just go through them and pick a few I like, today I had Haraz on the shortlist but I settled on just 3 bets Jonah Jones, Denis The Diva and Baby Power, I've backed 25 outsiders this week and so far 2 winners Dark Side Dream 14/1 and Set Point Charlie 16/1 so still worthwhile but I was hitting them for fun couple of weeks back, I have missed a couple this week, but I don't really have any rhyme or reason why I choose the ones I do, think I might start recording them in a sheet and see if there is a pattern, you could probably backed them all and done better than my picks because the ratings have been consistently flagging up big priced winners.
 

davejb

Mare
yesterday:
Report for : 22/08/2019
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/13 Odds: 7.0 (Return: 8.0)
Mkt filter 0/11 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/10 Odds: 0.25 (Return: 1.25)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 0.25 (Return: 1.25)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/13 Odds: 6.0 2.25 8.0 (Return: 19.25)
Mkt filter 2/6 Odds: 2.25 8.0 (Return: 12.25)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/6 Odds: 0.53 (Return: 1.53)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 0.53 (Return: 1.53)

Total Out = 42 Total return (raw) = 30.03
Total wins: 6 / 42

Not so hot this time.

today:
None of the four won - good job I'm not betting on them! I made a few bob on Battaash, lost a bit back on Mon Frere later on, it was nice to pick a winner. I wonder how Wissahickon will get on tomorrow? He's one of a few I'll be watching, I don't know if I'll be having a bet though. Laurens dropping to 7f will be interesting, I'm usually a big fan of laurens but I'm not so sure about tomorrow, although her race looks pretty open to me - it'll be interesting to see how Eqtidaar gets on, I wouldn't be surprised to see a decent show from him if he's fit.

tomorrow:
Chelmsford AW 14:00:00 [AW] Class 6 [8f] Stks [[6] run]
29 * 59822 Luna Wish (Bf 2.5) Drawn 6/6 (P) Filly
Margarson G G 0-5(2) Quinn Jimmy 1-20(4) Days : 10
gng dst jck
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
AW non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 6/4 1Fav


Cartmel 14:15:00 [NH H] Class 4 [17f] Stks [[9] run]
87 * 3021318 Grapevine (IRE) (Bf 2) Drawn 0/9 Gelding
Leech Mrs S 1-8(1) Brace Connor 0-13(3) Days : 22
DST JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 8/13 1Fav


Cartmel 15:25:00 [NH C] Class 4 [17.5f] Stks [[6] run]
110 * 4UP33 Djingle (FR) (Bf 2.63) Drawn 0/6 Gelding
Queally John 0-1(0) Heskin A P 1-5(1) Days : 34
dst jck
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 2/1 1Fav


Goodwood 15:50:00 [Flat] Group 3 [14f] Stks [[5] run]
90 * 2411011 Sir Ron Priestley (Bf 4) Drawn 1/5 (P) Colt
Johnston M 13-65(17) Norton Francis 2-34(14) Days : 24
GNG DST JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
Flat non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 9/4 2Fav


Cartmel 17:45:00 [NH H] Class 4 [17f] Hcap [[7] run]
82 * 6460853 Jeremys Jet (IRE) (Bf 11) Drawn 0/7 Gelding
Carroll A W 1-38(10) Tudor Jack 1-12(5) Days : 29

Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/2 2Fav


Kilbeggan 19:10:00 [NH C] [20f] Stks [[10] run]
62 * 2305013 Visioman (FR) (Bf 2.38) Drawn 0/10 Gelding
Bromhead Henry De 1-21(3) Blackmore Miss Rachel 4-29(9) Days : 42
jck OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/8 1Fav


Dave
 

Attachments

davejb

Mare
yesterday:
Report for : 23/08/2019
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/25 Odds: 1.25 1.5 4.0 (Return: 9.75)
Mkt filter 3/10 Odds: 1.25 1.5 4.0 (Return: 9.75)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 5/19 Odds: 1.1 1.75 0.33 4.0 2.0 (Return: 14.18)
Mkt filter 2/4 Odds: 1.1 0.33 (Return: 3.43)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/3 Odds: 6.0 (Return: 7.0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 50 Total return (raw) = 30.93
Total wins: 9 / 50

Okay for number of winners, odds too short!
today:
W7/4, L, NR. W1/1, W5/6 (this last one would be a no bet due to the odds). It would be nice if this sort of result became the norm again...

other than that Wissahickon didn't run all that well, he led towards the end but then ran a bit one paced into 4th - not a dreadful run but not that inspiring either. Laurens battled hard to give 7lb to the 3yo Shine So Bright but didn't quite manage to get a nostril in front - personally I still think dropping to 7f was not the best idea, but she almost managed it. Eqtidaar didn't run in the end, which was a disappointment.

Putting a cloud over everything was the news about Roaring Lion being put down after another bout of colic - it's always especially sad when this happens at the start of the stud career, as we'll have little chance to see how his progeny would race. Espoir D'Allen's loss was another blow, we'll never know now how he might have progressed in his jumping career.

Tomorrow:

Goodwood 14:00:00 [Flat] Class 4 [8f] Stks [[8] run]
49 * 44542 Hashtagmetoo (USA) (Bf 3.75) Drawn 6/8 (P) Filly
Osborne J A 2-18(8) Marquand Tom 11-78(26) Days : 9
gng or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
Flat non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 5/2 2Fav


Yarmouth 16:00:00 [Flat] Class 4 [6f] Stks [[4] run]
52 * 8116 Fred (Bf 999) Drawn 5/4 (E) Colt
Johnston M 9-65(19) 0-0(0) Days : 24

Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
Flat non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 2/1 1Fav
 

Attachments

davejb

Mare
yesterday:
Report for : 24/08/2019
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 4/25 Odds: 1.5 1.5 6.0 2.75 (Return: 15.75)
Mkt filter 4/11 Odds: 1.5 1.5 6.0 2.75 (Return: 15.75)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 5/22 Odds: 0.73 1.75 3.33 1.0 0.22 (Return: 12.03)
Mkt filter 4/8 Odds: 0.73 1.75 3.33 0.22 (Return: 10.03)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/9 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/5 Odds: 0.33 0.83 (Return: 3.16)
Mkt filter 2/3 Odds: 0.33 0.83 (Return: 3.16)

Total Out = 61 Total return (raw) = 30.94
Total wins: 11 / 61

Low odds again not helping.

Only one runner today, came 2nd at 3/1

none for tomorrow.

Dave
 

Attachments

davejb

Mare
Off and on I look through the 'sprint only' version of my EPSchart - this is exactly the same info, but only includes races over 5/6f, so I can look for anything that looks well rated and quick from the gate. My idea being that whilst it's not that uncommon to see a horse lead the whole distance to win in a longer race, it tends to occur a bit more often over 5f or 6f. Some tracks also throw up decent numbers of front running winners (on my stats, looking over the past 2 seasons) so I've been looking for top rated runners - preferably top based on their latest rating - and a high EPS score suggesting a possible/probable front run.

Tomorrow I've got Sonja Henie at Epsom 2.30, (6f cl 5 handicap, forecast 2/1F) this is the only one of a trio I found who is top rated based on the latest run, another pair are Strong Power in the 3.00 at Southwell (5f class 5 handicap, sadly 4/6F) and Fantasy Keeper in the 3.35 at the same track (5f class 3 hcap, 11/4F).

I'll be interested to see how these three get on, there's no great in depth analysis here so please don't think they're good bets unless you've looked at them and come to that conclusion yourself, this is just me looking for another edge.

I'm a bit disappointed to have found 3 favourites - I suppose I'm not the only one seeing potential unchallenged leads from fast horses - and I've since seen that Richard Birch is tipping Fantasy Keeper on the Racing Post website, so that won't help the price much anyway, but the horses don't know they're favourites so it'll be an okay test.

Dave
 

davejb

Mare
Well, Sonja Henie won okay at 2/1, the other pair placed - none of the three led all the way, I expected SJ to lead but she spent the first few furlongs eyeballing Orange Blossom (2nd) from ever so slightly behind her before winning the tussle. Both the others ran prominently without winning, Strong Power looked about to go on and win about 100 yds out but then just fizzled. End result - 3 bets, 3 pts back.... ho hum!

Yesterday:
Report for : 25/08/2019
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/16 Odds: 2.0 2.75 (Return: 6.75)
Mkt filter 0/6 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/8 Odds: 4.0 (Return: 5.0)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 4.0 (Return: 5.0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 24 Total return (raw) = 11.75
Total wins: 3 / 24

Not enough winners!

today - no bets, except my own sprint attempts of course.

tomorrow:

Ballinrobe 17:40:00 [NH H] [18.5f] Hcap [[10] run]
95 * 8070072 Lady In Lavender (IRE) (Bf 6.5) Drawn 0/10 Mare
Hogan Denis Gerard 3-41(9) Hogan D G 0-5(3) Days : 12
jck OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 9/2 2Fav

We'll see how this one goes then.

Looking over the sprints again I've had another go, I can't see any 'lead all the way' candidates, Harrogate in the 3.15 at Epsom (6f cl 3 hcap) looks likely to get an unopposed lead I'd think, but I don't rate him the likely winner. For this race I reckon Mokaatil to finish off from close up to the pace. I picked another one for the 7.50 at Bath, a 5f cl 5 handicap. Perfect Charm is another I expect to run prominently but not (deliberately) to front run, and maybe snatch it at the business end. Both runners are drawn 7 in 7 runner races, coincidentally.

The sprints stuff reflects a developing interest of mine, it is very early days (again!) for me to specialise like this, so please don't expect wonders - I'm quite surprised I found a winner today!

Dave

1.30 Tuesday - I don't normally add bits like this, but will today at least :D The selection 'Lady In Lavender' is currently favourite and is at 3/1 from 4/1, so it looks like there's some support for her at least. The two sprinters are currently13/2 outsider of 6 now (Mokaatil) - obviously the market figures this one is highly unlikely to win. Ian Williams has put a 7lb claimer up who has 5 wins,5 places from 41 rides (Angus VIlliers) which isn't too bad so maybe he can grab a place?
Perfect Charm in the 7.50 at Bath has Oisin Murphy on board, who won a 4 runner race on this one a few races back. The market currently has the favourite (Princely) halving to 9/4 from 9/2. the second favourite on the slide and a couple at longer odds tightening - it's a long way off post time of course but this race's market is moving quite a bit. PC is 3rd fav at 9/2, which I think is probably a fair price for his chances.

Neither of the sprinters has that 'fastest last time out' rating that I like to see, PC is more likely to lead than Mokaatil I'd think, they're both fairly long shots but their odds reflect that.... if one of them won I'd be quite pleased.
 

Attachments

Last edited:

davejb

Mare
yesterday:
Report for : 26/08/2019
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/18 Odds: 14.0 2.0 2.0 (Return: 21.0)
Mkt filter 3/12 Odds: 14.0 2.0 2.0 (Return: 21.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/10 Odds: 0.53 1.63 (Return: 4.16)
Mkt filter 2/5 Odds: 0.53 1.63 (Return: 4.16)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/8 Odds: 8.0 (Return: 9.0)
Mkt filter 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/6 Odds: 1.75 (Return: 2.75)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 42 Total return (raw) = 36.91
Total wins: 7 / 42

Getting a bit closer...

today:
Only one official selection, Lady In Lavender came third at 9/2. Still waiting for these selections to fire a bit more often.

For anyone who read my stuff about sprints last night (and this lunchtime) one of the two I picked won, Mokaatil won at 10/1 having drifted in the market - he was always going to be the outsider of the group and I was more than happy with my EW bet on him (I backed both sprinters and Lady In Lavender, so had the one winner from 3). His jockey Angus Villiers was interviewed on Racing UK and he seems a nice lad, boy is he young! That makes 6 winners from 42 rides, he's worth keeping an eye on.
The second sprinter, Perfect Charm, weakened over the final 2f officially - I think 'run off their feet' is probably more accurate - finishing last of the 7. All in all quite a profitable day.

For tomorrow I don't see very much in the sprint races, I picked two possibles out but I can;'t say I'm overly keen with either - The Grey Zebedee (Muss 3.10 Cl6 H'cap 5f, 9 run) would be reasonable perhaps but having won on Soft going at Catterick and having reasonable form figures on Good or softer but poor ones whenever G/F, I have doubts about their being able to reproduce the Catterick speed that saw him run on and win in the final third last week.
At Lingfield (3.30 6f cl 6 seller over 6f, 6 run) More Than Likely ought to be able to win this fairly readily - she had some good form last year as a 2yo and has been finishing close up (usually within a length or two) without quite winning in higher class races, so this ought to be a steering job really, unfortunately the market can also spot this quite easily and as a result the price will be awfully short.... probably too short for me to consider a bet, there comes a point when buying money is better done via the stock market!

tomorrow:

Musselburgh 14:10:00 [Flat] Class 4 [7f] Stks [[12] run]
62 * 4232 Imperial Gloriana (IRE) (Bf 3) Drawn 5/12 (P) Filly
OMeara D 7-55(17) Curtis B A 8-56(19) Days : 11
gng dst
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
Flat non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 11/8 1Fav

Dave
 

Attachments

davejb

Mare
yesterday:
Report for : 27/08/2019
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/17 Odds: 10.0 (Return: 11.0)
Mkt filter 0/6 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 5/10 Odds: 1.75 2.5 1.5 0.67 0.25 (Return: 11.67)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 0.25 (Return: 1.25)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 33 Total return (raw) = 22.67
Total wins: 6 / 33
More ho hum stuff then.

today:
One selection, ran 3rd at 5/6f, not a bet anyway but not good.

tomorrow:

Carlisle 15:40:00 [Flat] Class 5 [7f] Stks [[11] run]
63 * 5063 Wots The Wifi Code (Bf 15) Drawn 4/11 (S) Gelding
Coyle Tony 1-6(1) Hanagan Paul 5-39(17) Days : 12
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
Flat non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 9/4 1Fav


Sedgefield 18:50:00 [NH H] Class 4 [20f] Hcap [[5] run]
76 * P761982 Prince Khurram (Bf 4) Drawn 0/5 Gelding
McCain Jnr D 4-25(5) Murtagh Mr L A 0-8(1) Days : 27
GNG DST JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/2 2Fav


Fontwell 19:05:00 [NH C] Class 4 [21.5f] Stks [[4] run]
87 * 3124112 Ennistown (Bf 1.18) Drawn 0/4 Gelding
Honeyball A J 0-2(0) Coleman A 3-11(7) Days : 39
GNG DST JCK or
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 2/7 1Fav

That third one is no bet at that price, and as these selections are placing rather than winning I'd want to take a closer look at the other two first.

Today's sprinters - The Grey Zebedee did indeed lack finishing speed, the good/firm put me off thankfully (as I suggested above) - his form figures on g/f prior to today were 97, on good 6 11 3 7 3, and on good/soft to soft 323321... form figures don't tell the whole story, there were class changes and all sorts in the mix as usual, but it did seem a good enough reason to avoid the race. I did put a small bet on More Than Likely when I found her at 10/11 (should have waited, she went to evens a bit later) - I was surprised to see the odds this good (relative term) but it seems that doubts about the horse's willingness to win were circulating. She went on well enough in the end, although you could see where the doubts about genuineness came from. A winner is a winner, as they say.....

Tomorrow, I genuinely can't see anything looking at all attractive in any of the sprints, for every good point about a runner there seem to be equally good things to say about others in the race... so tomorrow is a sit on your hands day for me.

Dave
 

Attachments

davejb

Mare
Cheers @markfinn - it's a hobby, and whilst we almost all hate (or hated, for us retired types) or resent the need to attend work for part of each day we're often happy to slog away at our hobbies until the cows come home. (As I type this I have visions of avid modelmakers painting moustaches on their tiny spitfire pilots....) I did take a break to slaughter pixels in a game for a while, and to book a couple of tickets for the Haydock sprint meeting a week on Saturday, which should help provide an incentive for the sprints stuff I'm trying.

The 'selections' above having been looked at, of the two that aren't going off at a silly price I can't say I like the look of Wot's The Wifi Code - apart from being joint top rated in the race rather than clear top. The increase in distance (going up to 7 for the first time) might help overcome a lack of speed when running over shorter, but this one still looks a bit slow to me.... different jockey each race... I'm really not enthused, he COULD do okay but I'd want quite good odds on him to make an EW bet worthwhile.

Prince Khurram is up against a hot favourite, but I think is in with a chance, so I'd probably go with this in a small way in the hope that the jockey doesn't hold him up and never feature - which has happened off and on in the past. The hot favourite has run well enough, mostly on the flat over middle distances, with a couple of decent hurdles runs in the last few runs - has a bit of a tendency to jump left, unseating the rider on one such occasion, so that could be a weak point.

Dave
 

davejb

Mare
yesterday:
Report for : 28/08/2019
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/25 Odds: 3.5 1.5 (Return: 7.0)
Mkt filter 2/14 Odds: 3.5 1.5 (Return: 7.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/11 Odds: 0.91 4.0 10.0 (Return: 17.91)
Mkt filter 2/6 Odds: 0.91 4.0 (Return: 6.91)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/4 Odds: 3.0 5.5 (Return: 10.5)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 3.0 (Return: 4.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/4 Odds: 2.25 (Return: 3.25)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 44 Total return (raw) = 38.66
Total wins: 8 / 44

Still falling a bit short there.

Today:
Well Prince Khurram managed 2nd against the odds on shot, who did jump a bit left at the end I think but not enough to cause a problem. PK's price was 11/2. but with only 4 runners that's academic. I couldn't get excited enough to bet and went with my original plan, ie sitting on my hands and staying out, which turned out for the best. WTWC didn't run, and Ennistown showed us all why it's always risky to back long odds on shots!

Tomorrow:
Curragh 16:50:00 [Flat] Group 3 [8f] Stks [[7] run]
70 * 250334 So Wonderful (USA) (Bf 3) Drawn 7/7 (P) Filly
OBrien A P 6-52(12) Moore Ryan 7-38(16) Days : 7
gng or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
Flat non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 7/4 1Fav


Wolverhampton AW 17:35:00 [AW] Class 6 [6f] Stks [[13] run]
45 * 863322 Two Hearts (Bf 6.5) Drawn 1/13 (S) Gelding
Tuer Grant 2-7(2) Ryan Rossa 2-38(11) Days : 4
gng dst or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
AW non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 7/2 2Fav

I think Joseph and Donnacha, who team up against Dad in the first one above, are more likely to win - So Wonderful might win,. but I won't be betting on her to do so - apart from Joseph's Brook On Fifth I think Ger Lyons' Auxillia could also run well. So Wonderful doesn't, to me, look a likely Group 3 winner - I will no doubt have to eat my hat this time tomorrow, but that's my take on it.

The second one I'm more hopeful about, and I think Two Hearts has a fair chance - I'm not thrilled about 13 runners as he'll almost certainly be on the inside rail trying to come through at the end, and traffic could be an issue, but the form looks good to me and Rossa Ryan is on board for the first time... the stable isn't a biggie but has a 29% win rate over the last two weeks, which isn't some sort of 'my 29% beats your 13%' type thing but it does suggest that the stable's runners are in decent health and fit. (A low win rate can be a suggestion of the opposite - ie some bug slowing the stable's runners up a bit, possibly with no obvious signs to identify the problem, or there might be an issue at the yard that is affecting training, leaving runners a bit unfit..... there are also 958 other reasons to think this way :D)

Anyhow, I think the forecast 4/1 on Two Hearts is reasonable in the circumstances, I'd prefer a bit more for an EW saver so I'll be watching prices on this one.

Sprinters - well oddly enough I picked Two Hearts quite independently via my sprinter scan, which makes me a bit happier about the pick at least. The selections in the 'tomorrow' section are automatically produced by my programs, and in this case I'd done the sprinter stuff and made a few notes etc before posting the selections and realising both I and my program had picked the same runner. Two Hearts was one of 4 possibles I noted, I dismissed 3 of them (5.50 Wolv Classy Caitlin, 5.20 Curr Round Tower, and 8.00 Ham Astrophysics) - they all passed an initial scan as being of interest, but then got rejected for different reasons.... Astrophysics almost made the cut.

Anyhow that'll do for now.
Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
yesterday:
Report for : 29/08/2019
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/16 Odds: 4.5 0.44 (Return: 6.94)
Mkt filter 2/9 Odds: 4.5 0.44 (Return: 6.94)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/13 Odds: 3.5 0.29 (Return: 5.79)
Mkt filter 2/4 Odds: 3.5 0.29 (Return: 5.79)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/14 Odds: 5.0 6.5 8.0 (Return: 22.5)
Mkt filter 1/5 Odds: 5.0 (Return: 6.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/8 Odds: 0.2 1.0 (Return: 3.2)
Mkt filter 2/5 Odds: 0.2 1.0 (Return: 3.2)

Total Out = 51 Total return (raw) = 38.43
Total wins: 9 / 51

Still falling short... for newcomers this is normal, the idea is to figure out which of the top rated (or top 2 or 3) in a race actually have a chance, not to back all of them. (Of course deciding which 9 of 51 top rated runners will actually win is the harder part....)

Today:
Two Hearts won, Aidan O'Brien's So Wonderful ran a good race in second, as I suggested that Two Hearts was okay to back and So Wondderful wasn't I'll call that a good day.

Tomorrow:
Newton Abbot 13:55:00 [NH H] Class 3 [17f] Stks [[11] run]
70 * 1874 Dorking Boy (Bf 3.25) Drawn 0/11 Gelding
Lacey T 0-1(0) Johnson Richard 2-32(16) Days : 206 !!! ALERT !!!
DST JCK OR
Passes: Odds
Fails: Form Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/2 2Fav


Chester 15:20:00 [Flat] Class 2 [6f] Stks [[7] run]
74 * 4331231 Dream Kart (IRE) (Bf 2.63) Drawn 6/7 (P) Filly
Johnston M 8-76(17) Norton Francis 5-39(17) Days : 27
JCK
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
Flat non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 11/10 1Fav


Newton Abbot 16:50:00 [NH C] Class 4 [26f] Hcap [[5] run]
80 * 8054P92 Midnight Magic (Bf 2.38) Drawn 0/5 Gelding
Pipe D E 2-11(5) Noonan Mr D G 0-11(2) Days : 127 !!! ALERT !!!
gng dst jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/2 2Fav

Tomorrow's sprints - well it happened again, I just spent a good while finding two for tomorrow and one of them is Dream Kart, as selected above. This one has been running over 5f but looks like 6f might suit, and ought to hit the front early on - Know No Limits could challenge for the early lead, and I have this one rated equal top, but that rating was on soft going - good and g/f ratings are somewhat lower - so I have doubts about that being reproduced. With 7 runners the draw (6) shouldn't be too much of a problem.

My second pick took some lengthy head scratching thought, and in the Beverley Bullet over 5f at 3.15 I settled on Tis Marvellous.

- dropping down from the group races of 2 years back, can run well enough on good going - whether a bit of soft in it will help or hinder I can't decide, he's run on Good or Good/Firm almost every time so far. I doubt it'll be too soft for him, and the bit of ease might even help. He runs 5f well, is drawn well in trap 2, and should enjoy a prominent run behind a guaranteed lead in ornate if no other. This is trainer Clive Cox's third runner at Beverley in 3 years, the other two are still running, but the stable has had recent winners as has Ben Curtis the jockey.

So that's that, Dream Kart and Tis Marvellous for me.

Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
Yesterday:
Report for : 30/08/2019
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/29 Odds: 5.0 (Return: 6.0)
Mkt filter 1/19 Odds: 5.0 (Return: 6.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/17 Odds: 1.75 2.5 (Return: 6.25)
Mkt filter 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/6 Odds: 4.5 (Return: 5.5)
Mkt filter 1/4 Odds: 4.5 (Return: 5.5)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/6 Odds: 0.91 4.0 (Return: 6.91)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 0.91 (Return: 1.91)

Total Out = 58 Total return (raw) = 24.66
Total wins: 6 / 58

Ooof,

Today:
Only one selection, Dream Kart, who didn't win. (The other two had warnings attached for being old ratings). On the sprint side the main event was Judicial winning, which he had every right to do but still surprised me a bit. Tis Marvellous got stuck behind on the rail and got going far too late to figure, which was just a bit of bad luck really - would he have been in it with a clearer run? Who knows, really?

For tomorrow I do have a bit of a fancy for Starchant, but I'd want this one EW, in the first race at Brighton 2.00 - she's tumbling down the classes and the handicap, getting lumps of weight off the likely fancied runners, and is likely to go off in front... the question is whether she'll stay there to the end! Not one for short odds, but if I can get something around 5/1 and 8 go to post I'll be interested.... I think she's good for 2nd at least.

Tomorrow:
Worcester 14:10:00 [NH C] Class 5 [20f] Hcap [[7] run]
68 * 5704981 Midnight Gem (Bf 3) Drawn 0/7 Mare
Leech Mrs S 1-8(2) Heskin A P 2-5(2) Days : 38
GNG DST JCK or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/2 1Fav

Dave
 

Attachments

davejb

Mare
yesterday:
Report for : 31/08/2019
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 5/27 Odds: 2.75 3.0 3.5 1.5 2.5 (Return: 18.25)
Mkt filter 4/13 Odds: 2.75 3.0 1.5 2.5 (Return: 13.75)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 9/21 Odds: 2.0 0.57 7.0 1.38 0.8 0.3 4.0 1.38 2.25 (Return: 28.68)
Mkt filter 5/7 Odds: 2.0 1.38 0.8 0.3 1.38 (Return: 10.86)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/7 Odds: 2.25 (Return: 3.25)
Mkt filter 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 56 Total return (raw) = 50.18
Total wins: 15 / 56

Enough winners, but low prices on most of them....

today:
Well Midnight Gem didn't do a lot, and Starchant never got anywhere near the lead, which was rather out of character... so no show there either sadly.

tomorrow:
Chepstow 15:15:00 [Flat] Class 5 [7f] Stks [[5] run]
56 * 4522 Alrajaa (Bf 1.22) Drawn 4/5 (P) Gelding
Gosden J H M 12-42(14) Crowley Jim 9-35(14) Days : 18
gng dst jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
Flat non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 1/7 1Fav

Nothing there then unless the bookies decide to be rather generous....

It has been a rather busy day unfortunately, and whilst I was hoping to find something of interest there's nothing jumping out at me, so I guess it's a do nothing day tomorrow.

Dave
 

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