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Early days

Oh well - the list did okay, an even money winner (Je Suis Charlie) and one at 14/1 (Travel Lightly) - most of the long priced picks don't win, so whilst having a method that filters out longer priced runners the losses that this avoids are not small (the aim is really to take only those in the top 2 or 3 of the betting, because that is where most winners are to be found) . As it panned out only Je Suis Charlie was given as possible bet, and he won, so I'm happy with the outcome,

Yesterday's ratings weren't put up on the site of course, so no point going over the outcome - the ratings lost, with 5 wins from 35 returning just over 15. Filter got 4/15 for 8.54

Tomorrow;s list:

fastest lto and top rated in race

Gowran Park 11:35:00 [NH H] [16f] Stks [[17] run]
82 * 4257334 Here In The Dark (Bf 8.5) Drawn 0/17 Gelding
McCourt T G 0-1(0) Maxwell C D 1-5(1)
or

- No on stable form, odds on the edge, form figs no. No bet

Gowran Park 12:05:00 [NH H] [16f] Stks [[18] run]
84 * 125373 Future Proof (IRE) (Bf 2.88) Drawn 0/18 Gelding
Meade Noel 2-22(7) Flanagan S W 1-19(4)
dst jck OR

- Stable, odds okay, form figs ok, a bet

Huntingdon 13:05:00 [NH H] Class 4 [16f] Stks [[10] run]
57 * 1413416 Hats Off To Larry (Bf 6) Drawn 0/10 Gelding
Channon M R 2-15(4) Burke Mr J J 1-30(8)
GNG OR

- odds are starting to get a bit long. Flat form is okay, but the same goes for several others here.
I can't get excited about this one, although I wouldn't be amazed if he ran well or won.


Haydock 13:15:00 [NH C] Class 2 [21.5f] Stks [[6] run]
119 * 3U50832 Activial (FR) (Bf 3.75) Drawn 0/6 Gelding
George T R 3-21(10) Scudamore Tom 3-31(12)
gng jck

- Ticks boxes, despite no win for a good while ran a good 2nd to Cobra de Mai lto. Has a chance, not one I'll back though.


Huntingdon 13:40:00 [NH H] Class 3 [16f] Hcap [[8] run]
92 * 2111342 Beach Break (Bf 7) Drawn 0/8 Gelding
McCain Jnr D 3-21(6) McCain Miss A 1-2(2)
GNG DST OR

- Ticks all the boxes, odds are a bit long for the winning bracket. It'a a lady riders handicap hurdle so you are probably better off finding a decent rider and then checking the horse has 4 legs - on those grounds I'd say either this one or Collodi is most likely, Not a bet for me though.

Ascot 14:05:00 [NH C] Grade 2 [21f] Stks [[6] run]
136 * 1P73121 Hammersly Lake (FR) (Bf 11) Drawn 0/6 Gelding
Longsdon C E 1-28(5) Bowen Mr S P 8-41(17)
GNG DST

- Odds suggest this one is unlikely, sadly, is highly unlikely to upset Politologue from Paul Nicholl's yard in my view. No bet.

Haydock 14:25:00 [NH H] Grade 3 [24.5f] Hcap [[8] run]
108 * 4114146 Captain Cattistock (Bf 6) Drawn 0/8 Gelding
Nicholls P F 13-46(10) Cobden Mr H 12-38(21)
JCK

- form figs not the best, but just acceptable, odds are just about okay, but Ian Williams' First Assignment looks more likely winner. I won't bet on this as I prefer the Williams runner but won;t bet against my own top rated.

Enjoy the weekend racing - if anyone was unaware Racing UK have a one day only sale on, and are offering RUK for 12 months at £10 a month - I've signed up for it, as it's normally £25 a month. They've been offering a free month and stuff like that, but every few months they do this £10 a month offer for a whole year, and i've been waiting for it to come back round. Anyone interested you need to do it today. I mainly signed up as my wife seems to like watching ATR on Sky, and I figured she might as well have RUK too - it saves me hassle when there's a club runner she wants to watch that is on an RUK track!

Dave


Dave
 

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Not a bad day's racing, Bristol De Mai looks much improved, and it would be good if Thistlecrack continued to run well - so much was expected of him last year and he rather fizzled. It's a quiet time for Elite runners, Elgin being the NH star his tendon injury is keeping him off the track this year, I believe the plan is still that he won't race this year. They have a couple of youngsters who'll perhaps appear after Christmas, but with the retirement of Man Of Harlech and Volcanic the NH scene for Elite is pretty much blank. Of course there's still the odd AW runner appearing, so it isn't quite all stop.

Yesterday:

Report for : 23/11/2018
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/8 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/7 Odds: 1.38 4.5 (Return: 7.88)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 1.38 (Return: 2.38)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/9 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/10 Odds: 1.0 14.0 (Return: 17.0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 34 Total return (raw) = 24.88
Total wins: 4 / 34

Another very moderate result, the filter managed 4/13 returning 12.3.

Today's list had a single winner, ACTIVIAL - well he did tick the boxes as I noted, I just didn't fancy him that much! Never mind, as long as the odd winner is in the list.... I called the Politologue race correctly of course, but First Assignment got mugged later on to even the score.

Tomorrow's list -

fastest lto and top rated in race:

Exeter 14:20:00 [NH C] Class 3 [23.5f] Stks [[6] run]
76 * 20P2111 Lil Rockerfeller (USA) (Bf 1.22) Drawn 0/6 Gelding
King N B 2-8(3) Hutchinson Wayne 6-31(10)
GNG dst JCK OR

- Ticks all the boxes except the odds - far too short a price. Essentially my view is that whilst this looks a cast iron cert enough of these lose to make backing them a risky business, so no bet from me even though I expect him to win.

Exeter 14:50:00 [NH C] Class 3 [17.5f] Hcap [[8] run]
102 * 2953571 Night Of Sin (FR) (Bf 4) Drawn 0/8 Gelding
Williams Nick 1-6(3) Kelly Miss E 2-7(3)
JCK OR

- boxes ticked, a bet.

Exeter 15:20:00 [NH H] Class 4 [17f] Stks [[12] run]
62 * 30605U2 Powerful Society (IRE) (Bf 15) Drawn 0/12 Filly
Gillard Mark 0-3(0) Davies James 1-21(4)
gng jck OR

- Stable stats and odds make this a no bet.

Navan 15:30:00 [NH F] Listed Race [16f] Stks [[11] run]
85 * 3131 Yukon Lil (Bf 3.75) Drawn 0/11 Filly
Mullins W P 9-31(13) Deegan R 0-6(2)
GNG DST JCK OR

- All the boxes ticked, a bet.

Uttoxeter 15:40:00 [NH H] Class 4 [23.5f] Hcap [[9] run]
86 * 9228334 Robinesse (IRE) (Bf 9) Drawn 0/9 Mare
Sherwood O 0-20(9) Aspell Leighton 4-47(20)

- Form figs could be more enticing, stable stats not okay, no bet.

2 bets then, Night of Sin (11/4) and Yukon Lil 13/8 (current betfair sportsbook prices).
Dave
 

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Well yesterday could have gone better -

Report for : 24/11/2018
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/7 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/7 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/14 Odds: 3.33 (Return: 4.33)
Mkt filter 0/9 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/17 Odds: 4.5 3.33 (Return: 9.83)
Mkt filter 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 45 Total return (raw) = 14.16
Total wins: 3 / 45

The filter managed to pick 2/18 and return 6.58

Today's list had a single winner, Lil Rockerfeller, at 4/11 fav - not going to get rich on that. To be honest that's a pretty typical result for Sunday, I genuinely have started to pull back on Sundays as things seem to go awry too often.


Monday's list - top rated in race, fastest rating last time out

Ludlow 12:30:00 [NH H] Class 4 [16f] Stks [[10] run]
81 * 3413075 Foresee (GER) (Bf 7) Drawn 0/10 Gelding
Carroll A W 3-26(6) Fehily Noel 9-46(27)
OR

- form figs make this a no bet

Ludlow 13:05:00 [NH C] Class 4 [24f] Hcap [[7] run]
82 * 4333632 The Ogle Gogle Man (IRE) (Bf 7.5) Drawn 0/7 Gelding
Mann C J 0-11(4) Fehily Noel 9-46(27)
gng dst or

- Stable form no, odds a bit long. No bet

Kempton AW 13:30:00 [NH C] Class 4 [18.5f] Stks [[3] run]
96 * 4143223 Chesterfield (IRE) (Bf 1.62) Drawn 0/3 Gelding
Mullins J W 2-22(3) Sansom Mr D 2-15(4)
GNG JCK or

- Passes check, but odds are probably going to be too short for me.

Musselburgh 13:55:00 [NH C] Class 4 [21f] Hcap [[7] run]
70 * 120UU32 Asum (Bf 5) Drawn 0/7 Gelding
Kirby P A 3-23(4) Nicol Mr Adam 0-7(1)
gng dst JCK or

- Okay, this one qualifies, so let's hope the horse has learned to keep his rider attached.

Kempton AW 15:40:00 [NH H] Class 3 [16f] Hcap [[7] run]
93 * 1401342 Mick Maestro (FR) (Bf 7) Drawn 0/7 Gelding
King A 11-52(12) Teal Mr H 0-7(3)
GNG DST

- Ticks the boxes, but jockey is a bit of a concern - see next in list

Kempton AW 15:40:00 [NH H] Class 3 [16f] Hcap [[7] run]
93 * 38951 Fairway Freddy (IRE) (Bf 3.25) Drawn 0/7 Gelding
Gifford N J 3-9(1) Dingle Mr Rex 4-16(6)
gng DST JCK

- in same race as above, also ticks all boxes, but the jockey has (a) ridden the horse before, and more of interest (b) won on it last time out. I would therefore give this chap the vote.

That leaves three passing checks - Asum who we have to be a bit cautious with, as he's twice come home minus the jockey, making the bet a bit speculative I'd say, Chesterfield at Kempton will probably go off too far odds on for me to bet, and finally Fairway Freddy who is probably the only one I'm likely to bet on.

As Fairway Freddy is currently 13/8 on Betfair Sportsbook, which I think is a fair price, I've had a small bet on him.

Dave
 
davejb davejb

I was just looking at the speed figure DE gave Bristol De Mai a whopping 156.

To achieve this vastly inflated speed figure, he had the going allowance on the Chase course at -0.35s/f (good), on the hurdle course it was +0.1s/f (good), so between the two courses he had a 45lb difference, this is how you can achieve big speed figures!

Due to him doctoring the going allowance, 8yo Red infantry who won the earlier 3m4½f chase, on DE speed figures has suddenly improved 20lb, I think not.

Not to be left out RPR's awarded Bristol De Mai a rating of 177, maybe the problem lies with me, I need to add a fantasy aspect into my speed figures.

For the second year in a row, Bristol De Mai was given the race due to the his main rivals under performing In a race that was run at an even gallop, as Nicky Henderson stated Might Bite is in the same class as Sprinter Sacre, the TBB quoted "my arse".

I feel better now...

Mike.
 
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Interesting stuff TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother . I agree with what you say though we are arriving at the same answer from different perspectives. At the risk of aftertiming i did make some money from this race, though not as much as i should have if i had thrown caution to the winds, and not backed Might Bite and Native River as well.

The way the race panned out confirmed my initial assessment of all the participants. I rate Might Bite in the same class as one of my old favourites from years gone by, One Man. I dont see him ever winning a Gold Cup cos i dont see him getting up the Cheltenham hill when faced with a real out and out stayer like Native River. Might Bite may be a bit of a flat track bully, and i see him going well in the King George maybe. I dont think the Henderson horses seem fully wound up for their first runs this season so was not over surprised to see him fall away. Native River is a simple galloper and grinder; again he will have the Gold Cup as his main target and I think Cheltenham is made for him. I will want him onside in March but they were not going to bottom him on Saturday. Clan Des Obeaux is not quite up to this class but i just love Thistlecrack. There is still a huge engine in there but he seems smaller than a lot of chasers and he seemed to lose ground at the fences only to make it up on the flat. I would love to see him aimed at the World Hurdle. I just dont think he jumps well enough to compete over the big obstacles with the very best.

As for the winner i think this race was his Gold Cup. If ever he was to beat the big guns this was his chance on a track where he excels and with the big two having an eye to the future. He is a top quality horse and will win good races but for me, his 2017 Gold Cup effort will be the closest he ever gets to the big pot

Sorry for hijacking a Speed figure thread!
 
I'm probably rather different to you, but I had Bristol De Mai at 121 - I don't see the point in trying to fiddle ratings to match a handicap figure like an RPR, you can run a slow race but still win it, giving high RPR and low TS and that is what they ought to be doing when appropriate.

I found it interesting that the story from Might Bite's stable before the race was about how great the horse was, how bang on ready he was, and then he did very little in the race - as @Wolftone says, it was BdeM's day for pulling this off, and he did so in fine style.

Dave

I wonder when they'll rate one at 200?
 
Hi TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother , davejb davejb
Are there any articles on the forum about creating your own speed ratings.
Im using a third parties ratings at the moment.
Just been trying to rate the 2.10pm at Southwell for tomorrow and im just confusing myself.
Sean.
 
Sorry,
come down with a bug -and it's my 25h wedding anniversary so that's kyboshed things.
Did mnage to run full rtings, it'll havr to do, hopefully oksy tomorrow,,,

Lingfield 14:00:00 [NH H] Class 3 [19.5f] Hcap [[9] run]
91 * 51205 Esprit De Somoza (FR) (Bf 7.5) Drawn 0/9 Gelding
Williams Mrs Jane 2-6(1) Kelly Miss E 2-7(4)
JCK


Sedgefield 14:20:00 [NH H] Class 4 [16.5f] Stks [[12] run]
66 * 0700733 Torrid (Bf 15) Drawn 0/12 Gelding
Easterby M W 0-8(1) Bannister Mr H A A 2-24(10)
gng dst jck OR


Lingfield 15:00:00 [NH H] Class 4 [19.5f] Stks [[11] run]
88 * 551133 Duhallow Gesture (IRE) (Bf 2) Drawn 0/11 Mare
Honeyball A J 0-9(3) Coleman A 4-39(16)
GNG jck OR


- forgot to post the ratings file, sorry but I really m not up more tonight. 25th anniversary now ending with Paracetomol, M&S trifle, choccy truffles and lucozade in bed,,,, the hedonsim is marked in this one Obi Wan.,,
 

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Are there any articles on the forum about creating your own speed ratings.

Yes there are, the problem the majority of people find when they attempt to compile their own speed figures is the time it takes, in the summer time I have been known to spend up to 5 hours working on them.

If you read through this thread "Early Days" you will see Dave and myself dicussing everything, for example rail movement calculations, and other topics

Compiling Speed figures.

AW2018_2019.xlsx

NH2018_2019.xlsx

Mike.
 
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very strange the little things that people mention that make you homesick ... I remember well lucozade and lemsip, neither of which can be found here in my part of the USA ... I would probably hate the taste of both nowadays if I tried them, but they bring back warm fuzzy memories.

Feel better soon davejb davejb

:)
 
very strange the little things that people mention that make you homesick ... I remember well lucozade and lemsip, neither of which can be found here in my part of the USA ... I would probably hate the taste of both nowadays if I tried them, but they bring back warm fuzzy memories.

Feel better soon davejb davejb

:)

Draught bitter for me. I can (and do) drink eurofizz until the cows come home here, but for my birthday last week on Carol's advice everyone gave me cans of Old Speckled Hen and Hobgoblin (the only English beer you can get here). I think I must have got used to the fizzy stuff because a few cans and I'm a bit rocky!
Also decent English newspapers at a fair price, the Times is a fiver here and you don't even get the full paper during the week.
Apart from that I suffer living here!
 
Apart from that I suffer living here!

When i first moved here 20 or so years ago, there wasnt much you could get, nowadays i can find tea, beans, bacon, sausage, even crumpets.
Real English bread, pies, steak and kidney pudding .. all still tough to find. When the cravings get too bad .. I book a flight home for a couple of weeks and tell my family that i'm home to see them (all the time having pre-planned meals for the entire two week stay)
 
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