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Early days

@TheBluesBrother
I have Spare Parts +15, I also have the next three from that race all on +12... which is something I need to take a look at as several times now I've had 3 or 4 from a single race popping up.... could be some silly bug promoting them, so I'll check to make sure it's legit.

Tomorrow I have three -
Ling 1320 Dark Alliance - running off the same mark and much the same look to the race so in with a chance I think.
Ling 1550 Jorvik Prince - has gone up 5lb, looking to get the 4 timer in an apprentice handicap, I like the horse but I'm dubious.
Ncl 1915 Tommy G - he's going over 7f having set his 'well in' speed rating over 5f, so I don't like the setup.

Tomorrow attached - when I get a few minutes I'm going to tidy the odd file up a bit.... when....

Yesterday: AW hcap 2/6 (2/4) 7.8 7.4
non hcap 0/3 (0/1)
NH hcap 1/4 (1/2) 7.2
non hcap 0/3 (0/1)

Well the filter worked again, I'm a bit perplexed - I've usually found handicaps harder than non handicaps to work out, but this is another day when the handicaps did quite well - 6 out 15 back is quite decent, if only it happened every day! Even the jumps handicaps did okay, 4 out (or 23, if using the filter) and 7 back.

Ho hum, nobody said it was easy....
The AW stuff is up to of course, I've not had much free time today to squint at racecards so that's as in depth as it's going to get tonight.
Dave
 

Attachments

Tomorrow attached,
I've tidied the selections list up a bit, all those symbols were adding information without, in my view, really adding a great deal to the problem solving side of things - I'm not saying any of the removed 'flags' weren't serving a purpose, but I don't think any of them were offering a massive amount of help... so decluttering occurred. The info on win rates for that type of race at each track is still there, I may shift that to a separate track info header section I'm considering. Also still there, in brackets after the chosen runner's name, is how much it is top rated by compared to the second - I'd love to claim that backing all those rated 20 pts clear was the route to riches but sadly it appears not to be so! The removed information is generally available elsewhere - notably in the full ratings, where it's pretty clear that if you can only see two horses rated and the race is stated to have 12 runners then you probably don't have much info to go on, also the PR is still listed there.

More changes will follow, in time.

Yesterday: AW hcap 2/11 (1/7) Odds: 4.5 3.39 - market missed the 4.5
AW Non - Handicaps 1/2 (0/0) Odds: 2.57
NH Handicaps 3/11 (3/8) Odds: 2.5 14.0 5.7
NH Non - Hcap 2/7 (0/1) Odds: 9.0 1.7

So raw ratings gave us 8 wins from 31 runners and returned 43.36 filtered gave us 4 wins from 16 runners and returned 25.59, of course those numbers are BFSP so are almost certainly pretty generous unless you are betting quite small amounts actually on the exchange.

Yesterday's 'well in' notes worked out okay for once, Dark Alliance won at 5/4, Jorvik Prince was a neck second at 5/1 running a better race than I expected to be truthful, and Tommy G was run out of it from the furlong pole to come 4th at 13/2.... if his mark stays low enough then a run over 5f again might be good.

Tomorrow there are another 3 - consistent! They're all at Wolverhampton in the evening...

First up is Pantomime in the 6.45, 13 runner class 6 handicap over 16.5f.He's a couple of pounds better off this time which is nice, jockey suits, a run like his last at Newcastle could see him win this one - chances are the odds will be decent for an EW shot.

Next is Pushkin Museum (7.15) class 5 6f handicap, drawn 1 of 13. Jockey is fine, and although going up 4lb for that last win he could get another this time round.

Finally Pulsating (7.45) Looking to this class 5 handicap over 6f for his hat trick - unfortunately there is one fly in the ointment, he's gone up 11 lbs in the handicap and although he could still have half a stone in hand, and everything else looks okay, I'm not sure that the rise in weight (okay, mass, I'm a physicist remember) AND the bump up in class don't make a difficult combo to beat. Forecast to be favourite by my datafeed I think I'd want decent odds, although I wouldn't be amazed to see the hat trick come off.

Okay, that's it - time for a cuppa.

Dave
 

Attachments

nice write up @davejb I like Pushkin, will have to take a closer look at Pantomime, wasn't even on my radar. I agree Pulsating will find it more difficult tomorrow. :) Good luck.
 
Here we go again, to finish another week off...
The selections file has been tidied up a bit as I said, the up to date info on the win rates/runners/win% of top rated selections is now shown at the page top, one line per course, for non hcaps, then hcaps, then all combined. It's very straightforward I think - of course a low percentage could mean that the ratings are rubbish at course X, or it could imply that swings and roundabouts should apply to give a run of winners to even the stats up... I'm pondering this as I compare the rates for Southwell (non hcaps 8 wins from 37 = 22%, hcaps 18 from 82 = 22%, combined figures 26/119 = 22% - which is pretty consistent) with Fairyhouse NH (non hcaps 8 wins from 28 runners, 29%, handicaps zero winners from 17 = 0%, combined 8 out of 49 = 18%) - I have no idea why Fairyhouse should do pretty well for non handicaps but be atrocious for the handicaps!

Anyhow, them's the breaks.

Yesterday - AW hcap 2/14 6.03 25.0 (nice one) filtered 1/8 6.03
non hcap 0/5 (0/1)
NH hcap 1/7 (1/5) 4.7
non hcap 1/4 (0/1) 33.15 - another nice one. I'd rather have 4 winners at 7/1 than a single winner at 33/1, it tends to make the losing runs less dramatic, but if we're going to have a win rate like 1/7 or 1/10 then big odds do tend to help a bit.

The three 'well in' selections from yesterday - I haven't had a chance to look yet, hang on - hmm, first pair came 5th and Pulsating trotted around at the back before getting going to finish well and take 3rd. Oh well.

I hesitate to mention that there are another trio - why they're coming up in threes I don't know -
Rosina (2.25 Sthl) Has gone up 4lb since winning lto, should still have a lot in hand it says here, basically it all looks promising provided she can handle the sand here and manages to get the late run without problems.

Declamation (3.25) Has won two in quick succession since moving stables, could make it a hat trick - against it happening is a big rise in the handicap of 12lb and the extra furlong of this race compared to the last two. He 'requalified' for the list with his second win, and based on that he still has a good bit in hand, but I think time is running out.

Mr Coco Bean (3.55) Up 5lb for his last win over C+D he should still have a bit to spare, another who will probably turn up late in the game.

All three have jockeys aboard who have ridden then to win lately, the only one not doing pretty much the same as lto is Declamation, going over an extra furlong. All three are top rated on the speed ratings for tomorrow, and will probably start towards or at the head of the market.

Dave
 

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@TheBluesBrother
I doubt you missed this one Mike, but just in case -
Timeform for Punchestown 2.10 was 4 mins 38.1, R Post 4mins 5.0s - only 33s difference! Goodness knows who TF have doing their timing for them, but the RP figure (based on watching the video) was the correct one. It's not uncommon to have a couple of seconds difference, I base my hand timing on when the leader goes past the starter (this can be several seconds after the commentator calls the start based on the flag dropping while the field are actually still 50yds short of the start) so I try to hand time anything more than 2.0s adrift.... I figure that my hand timing is no better than that for accuracy on a bad day.

The Clonmel race where it was so foggy the starter didn't notice one had gone past earlier was fun - no time from anyone for that, and watching the replay doesn't help as the camera crew missed the start quite comprehensively.... makes doing ratings difficult, doesn't it?

Dave
 
Okay, same as usual.
Yesterday - AW 2/13 (2/10) 14.67 3.14
non hcap 1/3 (0/1) 1.76
NH Hcap 3/15 (3/10) 5.64 6.16 4.05
non hcap 4/11 (2/4) 1.71 2.81 (5.27 1.59)

- read as 4 out of 11 winners, odds 1.71 2.81 5.27 1.59 - filtering gave 2 wins from 4, missing the bracketted 5.27 and 1.59 winners.

That'a a small profit for raw ratings, and a decent profit for the filtered approach.

The three 'well in' jobs sank with hardly a trace, the race reports show that all three did pretty much exactly what wasn't wanted (but was at the back of your mind as a worry :) ) - Rosina was outpaced early and tried to make up for it at the end, Declamation looks to have run out of puff over that final furlong, to be honest he wouldn't have won over a furlong less either, and Mr Coco Beans tried to come late and got nowhere.... after being quite well backed as the odds on favourite.

For what it's worth Fareeq (Wolv 7.40) is up for tomorrow, as usual with a good bit in hand from the last run - time for a watching brief I think!

A quiet day for a change, barring having to jump out of bed to load 3 dozen hay bales onto somebody's horsebox - my wife has decided that her two remaining ponies can't possibly eat the knocking 200 bales of hay she still has stored from autumn and has been selling it over the winter. One chap wanted 300.... all I wanted was to stay in bed....

Dave
 

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Here's tomorrow's stuff.
Yesterday - I've amended my daily report program to do all the work for me... here we go with a cut and paste results sheet....

Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/6 Odds: (Returns: 0)
Mkt filter 0/6 Odds: (Returns:0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/1 Odds: (Returns:0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Returns:0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/6 Odds: 19.06 8.4 (Returns: 27.46)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 8.4 (Returns: 8.4)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/7 Odds: 1.44 2.18 2.06 1.84 (Returns: 7.52)
Mkt filter 4/4 Odds: 1.44 2.18 2.06 1.84 (Returns: 7.52)

- I got fed up reaching for the calculator to find out what the returns were like so I reprogrammed things a bit, it's easier to let the PC do the adding up :D

Okay, as can be seen, the AW was absolutely useless, 7 losers - given that the win rate for ratings at Southwell is averaging out at 22% I'd have expected one winner, but there it is. Unfiltered that's 20 pts out and 35 back pretty much, filtered it's 14 out and 16 back approx.

Tomorrow there's one 'well in' - Olaudan in the 43.5 at Kempton, ran to a mark of 60 last time out but is rated at 52 - personally I think Mercers is more likely to win, but according to the forecast SP I'm wrong....today's runner Fareeq came 6th.

Only a couple of winners today, one at each meeting so breaking slightly better than even on raw ratings again (one was 11/2 the other 9/1), but the filter didn't work at all.

Dave
 

Attachments

Tomorrow there's one 'well in' - Olaudan in the 43.5 at Kempton, ran to a mark of 60 last time out but is rated at 52 - personally I think Mercers is more likely to win, but according to the forecast SP I'm wrong....today's runner Fareeq came 6th.
Well it just goes to show, even a blind idiot has to hit the bull once in every decade or two.... Olaudan came 3rd, evens favourite, Mercers won by a head and a neck at 10/1. I tell you tipping services have been started on less evidence than this..... :D

Back to reality then, todays stuff as ever - see if you can spot the cosmetic changes I'm gradually adding....

Yesterday looked like this:-
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/4 Odds: 7.8 8.51 (Return: 16.31)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/5 Odds: 12.0 (Return: 12.0)
Mkt filter 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

- I'm looking at ways to get the actual SP's in here, I have a results scraper etc for the RP that I could use to grab the SP, it's just a matter of swapping it into the results file I download to work on, because the BFSP is a bit misleading I'm sure everyone would agree, it makes the view altogether rosier on the long shots for a start. It won't be fixed instantly, but fairly soon I would hope.

Tomorrow's 'well ins' are as follows - I'll do more info on them as I get spare time, but we seem to have a lot on the go lately and even fairly simple hospital follow ups seem to eat hours and hours - we had a 20 minute quick exam and chat with the wife up on the mechanics ramps down quikfit (well, in the middle of a fairly old and not very comfy hospital) and it took us from 10 am to just after 5pm to complete the round trip... that just eats into my racing prep time I'm afraid and it's not an uncommon experience lately.

Anyhow, here's the 'well in' list for tomorrow - you can pull more info out of the AWcard info etc easily enough to get a better fix on it all:

1210 Ling Toriano - gone up 4lb following last (winning) run at Lingfield, should therefore still have about 10lb to play with.
2.50 Ling Lugarno Palace drops 3lb from lto (4th at Newcastle) leaving 14lb to play with in theory.... form figures don't excite.
3.20 Ling - Two in this one, Spare Parts has won three in succession and went up a fairly hefty 13lb for the last one, which is almost all they had spare. Soaring Spirits has gone up 2lb for a very narrow defeat last time out, could go okay with about 8lb in hand.
Another pair in the 4.00 at Newcastle:
Rubenesque is a pound better off for a 4th lto, on paper 13lb to the good, while
Thankyou Very Much remains on the mark that allowed them to post a +13lb speed figure last time out when coming 2nd.

These are all worth a quick check, Spare parts would be doing very well to keep winning having been fairly hammered after the last win, but the rest might do okay if the ducks line up alright. I haven't double checked distances, I've rather glanced at Trainer and Jockey form, and so forth so all need further checking.

Dave
 

Attachments

Tomorrow:
Some fixes to the form lines in the AWcard file, handicaps now correctly reported as such, one fix still to go to apply the correct win/run info for each track - ie the same stuff that's correctly listed at the top of the selections sheet. The swap from BFSP to SP is progressing, I just have to get the report sheet to pick up the info in passig, so should be done in the next day or two.

So, yesterday's results - still using BFSP for now....

Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/7 Odds: 12.5 3.3 (Return: 15.8)
Mkt filter 2/5 Odds: 12.5 3.3 (Return: 15.8)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/1 Odds: 2.05 (Return: 2.05)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 2.05 (Return: 2.05)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/5 Odds: 15.47 (Return: 15.47)
Mkt filter 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

I think even on SP that would have been okay, the winners (at SP) were Iley Boy (2/1) Mercers (10/1) - returning 14 rather than 15.8
Corinthia Knight (Evens, so 2 instead of 2.05)
and on the NH Cougar Kid was top rated in the 3.05 and won at 12/1 (13 back rather than 15.7) - so 29 back from 17.

Yesterday's well in - well, a bit on the close but no cigar side really. Toriano came home in 6th and seems not to have had much of a race, Lungarno Palace came 2nd at 5/1, then we had two each in the other two races - in the first Spare Parts won at 6/4f, despite the weights rise - more on that shortly - whilst Soaring Spirit didn't soar.
The 4.00 at Newcastle had Rubenesque 5th and Thankyou Very Much beaten a neck into second at 7/1

As in all the best hard luck stories that last one would have made all the difference.

Tomorrow - 1250 Southwell Sunshine and Bubbles runs off 55, having set a figure worth 68 on the 3rd at Wolverhampton. Ryan Rossa on board claiming 5 is currently scoring pretty well. I quite like this one.

Southwell 1.20 has a couple in:
Angel Palanas is up 6lb from a run on the 9th here, does still have 6lb spare on the numbers I suppose, not sure I like this.
Swot is off the same 57 mark as on the 1st Jan when running to 67, with Robert Winston on board - interestingly enough has been ridden recently by Ryan Rossa (see 12.50 above).

7.55 Chelmsford has Nicola Currie (5lb claim) riding Spare Parts who won today, and ought to be carrying 12lb extra if I read that right - far be it from me to suggest they can't turn this into a quick 5 timer but at some point loading bags of cement onto the horse does tend to slow it a trifle.

8.30 Chelmsford gives Pulsating a chance to make amends after placing 3rd lto.... I love that racing journalist cobblers, 'make amends', as if the horse gave a stuff what anyone did or didn't bet on:D Anyhow, trying class 5 again with Ed Greatrex on board again, all pretty similar to last time in fact, and whilst I wouldn't be confident of a win I thinkhe MIGHT do so and ought to manage a place again at least.

Dave
 

Attachments

Tomorrow as ever attached.

Yesterday - well I got a couple of things completed, firstly the run/win/win% figures for handicaps/non handicaps weren't always being displayed correctly, mainly seen as non handicap figures listed even though a handicap was being run, and whilst all this means is you don't know how the ratings have been doing in handicaps at the track unless you look at the top of the selections sheet (where all course returns are listed), it was still annoying and is now fixed.
Of more importance for assessing how things are doing is the change to the 'yesterdays results' stuff I post - as my datafeed lists BFSP rather than SP it meant that there was often a fairly optimistic slant to the returns expected.... most days it probably didn't make a massive difference but it might make a few points on a decent day, and it only took one outsider to win at 33/1 with a BFSP nearer 50 to totally skew the view. So I finished changing things in my analysis program to obtain and use SP's reported on the Racing Post site for all winners, starting today. Sadly there weren't that many, so not as much to see as there might have been!

Yesterday then -
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/11 Odds: 1-1F (Return: 2.0)
Mkt filter 0/5 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/6 Odds: 5-4F (Return: 2.25)
Mkt filter 1/5 Odds: 5-4F (Return: 2.25)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/6 Odds: 5-2 (Return: 3.5)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 5-2 (Return: 3.5)

- lost a few points there I'm afraid... 24 out 7.75 back unfiltered, 11 out 5.75 back filtered.... maybe I should have kept the BFSP to make it look nicer....

Well in - hmm, Angel Palanas was a NR so solved the two in one race issue, unfortunately Swot was beaten a head at 11/4 so no coconut.
Sunshine and Bubbles weakened into 6th (13/8 fav) in the final furlong, Spare Parts ran 2nd (5/2 F) - I watched the race and couldn't decide if he really just found the early pace too hot or he wasn't best positioned, not that things were likely to go too well from that wide draw. I thought he ran better than i was expecting,but is only going to win at this level in his turn.
Pulsating (Evens F) came 3rd to close out another day of hitting the goalposts.

For those who enjoy a good beating, Jessie Allan reappears in the 8.15 Newcastle tomorrow as the only 'well in' runner tomorrow. Running off the same mark as last time (late December) but going over 7f instead of 6f and with a new amateur jockey on board - the trainer is doing okay lately and the jockey has won a couple, but throw in a runner going off 46 (a mark that just about guarantees at least 3 legs) and I'm not hopeful.

So there we have it, another exciting day in the snowy landscape awaits,
Dave
 

Attachments

I see that Jessie Allan came 3/4l 2nd at 7/1 tonight (yesterday's 'well in' runner) - ran better than I expected to be fair.

Tomorrow attached as usual.
Yesterday was a dreadful day for the ratings - even BFSP couldn't have saved the day...
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/12 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/10 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/3 Odds: 1-1F (Return: 2.0)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/8 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/6 Odds: 11-10F 13-8F (Return: 4.73)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

- that's just painful.

Tomorrow's 'well in' runners - there are a good handful, so I'm just going to paste in here the basic info, decode at the bottom:-
13/01/2018,Lingfield,15:10,Karam Albaari (IRE),56,67,11,,,
Karam Albaari (IRE) running in 14:00:00 at Lingfield at OR: 60

31/12/2017,Lingfield,15:20,Met By Moonlight,59,76,17,,,
Met By Moonlight running in 16:10:00 at Lingfield at OR: 65

10/01/2018,Kempton,16:15,Spare Parts (IRE),55,70,15
11/01/2018,Chelmsford City,20:30,Spare Parts (IRE),55,71,16
17/01/2018,Lingfield,15:20,Spare Parts (IRE),68,78,10
Spare Parts (IRE) running in 20:15:00 at Chelmsford AW at OR: 69

06/01/2018,Kempton,18:45,Dors Law,52,66,14,,,
Dors Law running in 20:15:00 at Chelmsford AW at OR: 56

10/01/2018,Kempton,16:15,Touch The Clouds,48,60,12,,,
Touch The Clouds running in 20:15:00 at Chelmsford AW at OR: 48

Okay, what's listed is one or more lines showing where the improved rating was produced, so for Karam Albaari we see that on 13 Jan he ran in the 15:10 at Lingfield, the three numbers following are 56 (this is the OR he ran off on that occasion), 67 the handicap mark calculated for the actual run (see earlier in the thread in December for how this is calculated if required), and the final figure 11 shows that the speed figure based calculation suggests he ran 11lbs better than the BHA handicapper rated him.

The line in bold following the previous run info tells you what race the horse is entered for tomorrow.

Of interest is the obviously rock hard SPARE PARTS who has put up three consecutive runs above his OR, following a stable change - he ran up to ratings of 70, then 71, then 78 - so given the right distance etc he might well still be a little ahead of the handicapper.

Dave
 

Attachments

Yes Kachy was a lot quicker than the rest, rated 102, and had an OR prior to the run of 105 - using the 'Mike' method of equating the speed ratings to the OR that puts Kachy on 119, which earned a place in the 'well in' file from yesterday, so I'll get a flag up when Kachy runs again. (You can see pretty much what that looks like by looking at the previous post).

No 'well in' for tomorrow by the way.
From the 'well in' bunch posted yesterday the only winner came from the trio in the 2015 Chelmsford, Touch the Clouds winning at 10/1. To be fair the three were rated as being +9 (Spare Parts) who came 3rd at 6/4f, +10 (Dors Law) 4th, and the winner at +12 so they almost finished in the predicted order there.... 1.25 lengths from 1st to 4th so a close contest too! Of the earlier pair one managed a 3rd place at 9/4, the other was 4th at 13/2.

Tomorrow is attached as usual.

Yesterday - this is going to look silly compared to today's results....

Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/15 Odds: 3.5 (Return: 4.5)
Mkt filter 1/11 Odds: 3.5 (Return: 4.5)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 4/7 Odds: 3.0 1.63 2.75 4.0 (Return: 15.38)
Mkt filter 4/6 Odds: 3.0 1.63 2.75 4.0 (Return: 15.38)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/5 Odds: 0.57 1.38 (Return: 3.95)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 0.57 (Return: 1.57)


So absolute disaster again on the AW, it was starting to look like things might have been improving but the past few days has been dire - I read a comment somewhere about the cold weather messing up the artificial surfaces in some way or other (something about it going sticky or something, I clearly should have paid more attention) so maybe it's the AW version of when the turf goes heavy?

Anyhow, as you can see the filters reduces the AW losses, 4.5 back from 19 turns into 4.5 from 13, but it's hardly something to cheer about. The NH isn't as bad, with 4 winners making a 7.33 profit on the raw ratings (19.33 back from 12 out) and +9.95 from the filtered (16.95 back from 7) , so the NH did okay.

I know today's results are similar in character, simply by watching the TV and having the selections sheet to hand (my wife likes to know which horse is supposed to win). Although the full ratings check will wait for tomorrow I can see that the AW was poor again with only the final handicapper going in at 6/4, that's from 9 in total on the AW. The jums was a complete contrast, aided mightily by a bunch of odds on favourites actually winning for a change - of the 7 non handicappers on the selections list 6 of them won, the other one came second, but the longest price was 9/4 and 4 were odds on. The handicappers gave better odds, 4 of 9 won with a couple at 7/4 and a couple at 11/4, so although not really much to shout about it is very nice to see a good win rate for a change.

I continue to tidy up some of the coding, nobody mentions if bits of info in the sheets are incorrect, have data missing, and so on but I do eventually notice and fix things. I've got a little idea re trainers and jockeys on the go which I'm hoping to collect some reasonable data with, whether it'll make any difference to picking winners is another matter of course!

Well, the 'Dancing on thin ice' people might not have appreciated him but after initially finding Matt Chapman a bit too much in yer face I've grown to like him, not least when engaging with Luke Harvey on 'The Opening Show' ... today had a classic with Luke giving an outsider to oppose Un De Sceaux, then going on to say that Un De Sceaux was bound to win but he was putting Kylemore Lough up for those who didn't like backing odds on favourites - a peculiar logic that drew a fair few comments and the soubriquet 'muppet' from the erstwhile Torville Tormentor. In contrast I seldom find the Cumani/Plunkett stuff anything but irritating. (Even they are better than those fashion presenter bits though, the stuff we have to endure to get a spot on TV these days!)

Dave
 

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@davejb

Yesterday's meeting at Navan was very bad, I had to separate the 2m races from the rest of the card.

Yesterday.png

On a more brighter note, the speed figure I had for Kachy on the 19th of 103, was the fastest British AW speed figure I can remember.

Mike.
 
Last edited:
Cheers Mike @TheBluesBrother
yes, I made Kachy 102 which is 10 better than the 92 I have as my first and previous best recorded figure... definitely on the quick side, let's see what the next run is like.
I'm just starting the results in a minute, so I'll see how Navan turns out, I don't have a lot of faith in results from Irish courses although to be fair some of them don't seem to do so badly at producing winners. I think it's just that you get some really iffy numbers from a couple of meetings and they skew everything for months to come, which is of course why it's important to try to make sense of them when you see something that doesn't look right.
Dave
 
I don't have a lot of faith in results from Irish courses
Dave haven't you noticed, since we have been using the -28 variance for jump racing, it seems to be correcting the dodgy Irish official race distances, why the -28 variance works still surprises me.

I have been watching the racing from Thurles (IRE) and I cannot recall seeing surface water on a racecourse like that.

Mike.
 
@TheBluesBrother
Okay Mike, I've got my allowances sorted, for Navan I have -2.84. The first race is in my view the issue - if you do the RPR substitution for the missing OR (114) it makes all the other ratings drop significantly - if you leave that one blank and go with the figures for the other 6 races they pretty much look tidy in my view, the ratings undercut the OR by 29,36,40,78,28,29 - that 78 outlier is the 'worst fit' but plenty of other meetings have worse, and the clump that the other 5 make is a lot neater than usual... I think Riders on the Storm ran a much better race than the RPR suggests., and the race time compared to the rest of the card supports that in my view. To be honest I found Taunton and Haydock much harder to handle.

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Chopped a few columns off the end to make it easier to read. I think Haydock just got slower and slower as each race was run, and the chase course was a lot slower than the hurdles from the start - that's why I left the final race in with the chases, as I don't think it was anywhere near as fast as the going for the earlier hurdles. I decided on this split using the final visible column of seconds/furlong, where there's a fairly obvious division between those run around 1 s/f slow and those closer to 2 s/f.

Taunton I split Hurdles/Chase.

We're close on Taunton, some noticeable differences on Navan and Haydock.... I must say I don't think there's any way to look at yesterday and walk away confident!

Dave
 

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I think the 28 has been very useful - it's given a yardstick that we can work to that produces numbers we are comfortable with. The point is that the allowance calculation method works while the irish distances etc are consistently wrong, ie I think they are setting the 2m race off at Leprechaun Park from the same 2m 1f from the finish post that they always have - and while they're consistently using a 40 inch yard it's okay because the numbers all relate consistently - the problem comes when they start 100 yds further away on random occasions. Unfortunately I don't think this is as consistently accurate (for want of a better word) than the mainland where we have fairly accurate distances and rail info.

Dave