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Early days

Thanks, that was a couple of weeks back - I think I picked a bug up as I wasn't very well for a week after, and the procedure itself wasn't a problem. Relatively fit and healthy now, as long as I don't try to walk more than a mile or so or faster than a slow amble! Just a bit of stuff medics have yet to figure out.... not untypical these days.

Report for : 28/12/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/5 Odds: 0.83 (Return: 1.83)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 0.83 (Return: 1.83)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/10 Odds: 16.0 (Return: 17.0)
Mkt filter 1/7 Odds: 16.0 (Return: 17.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/10 Odds: 1.75 7.0 (Return: 10.75)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 1.75 (Return: 2.75)

Total Out = 28 Total return (raw) = 29.58
Total wins: 4 / 28
List of winners:
New 16:50:00 Al Qareem (IRE) 1.83
Leo 13:10:00 Panda Boy (IRE) 17.0
Leo 13:45:00 Klassical Dream (FR) 2.75
Leo 14:20:00 Galvin (IRE) 8.0

Surprise return, thanks to 2 good winners.
Today's picks did what I hate seeing - 2 winners from 6 is almost keeping the winrate up, it's a fraction under 40% so far, whilst winners at 5/6 and evens do nothing for the actual balance or ROI.... winnings are paper thin now, about 3% or so, which isn't promising. Given that when the ground turns really soft/heavy everything normally gets turned upside down I can't see this being a great season somehow. Good job I'm not doing this for a living, isn't it?

Tomorrow:
1640811640206.png

We'll see how these two do.

Dave
 

Attachments

  • 30-dec-21.xlsx
    49.6 KB · Views: 1
Report for : 29/12/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/3 Odds: 1.88 8.0 (Return: 11.88)
Mkt filter 2/2 Odds: 1.88 8.0 (Return: 11.88)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/5 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/19 Odds: 6.5 (Return: 7.5)
Mkt filter 0/10 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/15 Odds: 1.0 0.83 1.0 (Return: 5.83)
Mkt filter 2/6 Odds: 0.83 1.0 (Return: 3.83)

Total Out = 42 Total return (raw) = 25.21
Total wins: 6 / 42
List of winners:
Sou 17:00:00 The Bell Conductor (IRE) 2.88
Sou 17:30:00 Mr Sensible (USA) 9.0
New 12:50:00 Peking Rose 2.0
Leo 14:20:00 Sharjah (FR) 1.83
Don 15:20:00 Zambella (FR) 2.0
Kel 15:30:00 Buddha Scheme (IRE) 7.5

No picks tomorrow.
Today's two picks ought to have resulted in a winner, Edwardstone romped away from the rest early on and was 3l clear when falling at the last as he landed, he'd have won otherwise.... that ended up as -2 pts on the day rather than +0.5, which was pretty disappointing but these things happen.

Dave
 

Attachments

  • 31-dec-21.xlsx
    62.7 KB · Views: 3
Report for : 30/12/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/6 Odds: 3.0 (Return: 4.0)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 3.0 (Return: 4.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/2 Odds: 4.0 (Return: 5.0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/11 Odds: 11.0 (Return: 12.0)
Mkt filter 0/5 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/5 Odds: 0.62 (Return: 1.62)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 0.62 (Return: 1.62)

Total Out = 24 Total return (raw) = 22.62
Total wins: 4 / 24
List of winners:
Wol 16:30:00 New Force 5.0
Wol 18:00:00 Trevolli 4.0
Tau 12:15:00 Karakoram 12.0
Tau 13:15:00 Brave Kingdom (FR) 1.62

Close, but no coconut.

Four picks, all at Cheltenham, for tomorrow -


1640981823782.png

Happy New Year everyone, and let's all hope for a much better 2022 than 2021 (and 2020 ) were.
Dave
 

Attachments

  • 01-jan-22.xlsx
    100.8 KB · Views: 2
Report for : 31/12/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/6 Odds: 1.25 (Return: 2.25)
Mkt filter 1/4 Odds: 1.25 (Return: 2.25)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/2 Odds: 4.5 (Return: 5.5)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/13 Odds: 18.0 2.75 (Return: 22.75)
Mkt filter 1/6 Odds: 2.75 (Return: 3.75)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/8 Odds: 0.67 (Return: 1.67)
Mkt filter 1/4 Odds: 0.67 (Return: 1.67)

Total Out = 29 Total return (raw) = 32.17
Total wins: 5 / 29
List of winners:
Lin 11:35:00 Already Gone (IRE) 5.5
Lin 12:10:00 Cest No Mour (GER) 2.25
War 12:00:00 Shutthegate (IRE) 19.0
War 13:40:00 Neil The Legend 3.75
Pun 15:00:00 Harmonya Maker (FR) 1.67

A thin margin of profit....

Today's picks resulted in a 2nd, 2 x 3rds, and one winner at 7/4 from 4 bets.

Tomorrow:
1641068156035.png

Dave
 

Attachments

  • 02-jan-22.xlsx
    51.7 KB · Views: 1
Report for : 01/01/2022
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/7 Odds: 4.0 (Return: 5.0)
Mkt filter 1/7 Odds: 4.0 (Return: 5.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/2 Odds: 0.91 (Return: 1.91)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 0.91 (Return: 1.91)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/27 Odds: 18.0 1.5 (Return: 21.5)
Mkt filter 1/11 Odds: 1.5 (Return: 2.5)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/20 Odds: 1.75 0.62 (Return: 4.37)
Mkt filter 2/6 Odds: 1.75 0.62 (Return: 4.37)

Total Out = 56 Total return (raw) = 32.78
Total wins: 6 / 56
List of winners:
Sou 13:43:00 Lammas 5.0
Sou 14:18:00 Arriviste 1.91
Che 13:25:00 LHomme Presse (FR) 2.75
Tra 13:45:00 Missiee (IRE) 19.0
Cat 14:15:00 Socialist Agenda 1.62
Mus 14:50:00 Amour de Nuit (IRE) 2.5

Bahh.
No picks tomorrow, and today's pair both lost.

Dave
 

Attachments

  • 03-jan-22.xlsx
    52.2 KB · Views: 3
Another quiet day then...

Report for : 02/01/2022
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/11 Odds: 11.0 2.5 (Return: 15.5)
Mkt filter 1/6 Odds: 2.5 (Return: 3.5)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/10 Odds: 1.88 4.0 (Return: 7.88)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 1.88 (Return: 2.88)

Total Out = 28 Total return (raw) = 23.38
Total wins: 4 / 28
List of winners:
Naa 12:30:00 Jeremys Flame (IRE) 2.88
Plu 12:38:00 Elixir De Nutz (FR) 5.0
Ayr 15:05:00 If Not For Dylan (IRE) 12.0
Naa 15:20:00 Paddys Planet (IRE) 3.5


No picks again....


Dave
 

Attachments

  • 04-jan-22.xlsx
    48.7 KB · Views: 2
Report for : 03/01/2022
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/11 Odds: 3.33 (Return: 4.33)
Mkt filter 1/5 Odds: 3.33 (Return: 4.33)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/3 Odds: 0.44 0.22 (Return: 2.66)
Mkt filter 2/3 Odds: 0.44 0.22 (Return: 2.66)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/8 Odds: 6.5 (Return: 7.5)
Mkt filter 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/4 Odds: 1.63 (Return: 2.63)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 26 Total return (raw) = 17.12
Total wins: 5 / 26
List of winners:
Lin 13:10:00 Al Marmar (IRE) 1.44
Lin 13:40:00 Pink Crystal (IRE) 1.22
Wol 19:00:00 Kenstone (FR) 4.33
Mus 15:00:00 Pookie Pekan (IRE) 7.5
Mus 15:30:00 Holmes St Georges (FR) 2.63

Still no more picks, this is where I find I added a line into the code saying 'if not 2021 forget it...', but it takes me until march to notice it.

Dave
 

Attachments

  • 05-jan-22.xlsx
    67.5 KB · Views: 3
Report for : 04/01/2022
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/11 Odds: 3.5 3.0 (Return: 8.5)
Mkt filter 2/9 Odds: 3.5 3.0 (Return: 8.5)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/5 Odds: 3.0 (Return: 4.0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/3 Odds: 1.38 (Return: 2.38)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 1.38 (Return: 2.38)

Total Out = 23 Total return (raw) = 14.88
Total wins: 4 / 23
List of winners:
Lin 14:35:00 Twistaline 4.5
New 16:30:00 Stand Free 4.0
New 17:00:00 Star Shield 4.0
Her 14:15:00 Red Rookie 2.38

This is getting very boring now, still no picks popping up, I guess they're all still knackered from running on Boxing day!
To be honest, what with not getting to a track for the past 2 years (due to Covid restrictions and personal ailments - my wife and I are falling apart these days) and the increasing feeling of 'Groundhog Day' I'm experiencing, I'm not exactly fired with enthusiasm at the moment.

Dave
 

Attachments

  • 06-jan-22.xlsx
    60.6 KB · Views: 1
Report for : 05/01/2022
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/15 Odds: 4.0 7.5 (Return: 13.5)
Mkt filter 2/6 Odds: 4.0 7.5 (Return: 13.5)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/9 Odds: 16.0 (Return: 17.0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/5 Odds: 3.0 10.0 (Return: 15.0)
Mkt filter 1/4 Odds: 3.0 (Return: 4.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/2 Odds: 8.0 (Return: 9.0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 31 Total return (raw) = 54.5
Total wins: 6 / 31
List of winners:
Wol 12:50:00 Burtonwood 17.0
Wol 16:08:00 Race Card 5.0
Dun 16:45:00 Kingslayer (FR) 8.5
Ffo 13:45:00 Howdyalikemenow (IRE) 4.0
Ffo 14:55:00 Gaia Vallis (FR) 11.0
Ffo 16:00:00 Captain Claude (IRE) 9.0

Gosh, a good day at Ffos las and not bad at Wolverhampton either....

To round things off here's a pick:
1641500621496.png

Looks a firm favourite currently, C and D winner recently so not a complete no hoper then!

Dave
 

Attachments

  • 07-jan-22.xlsx
    56 KB · Views: 2
Oh dear, the pick came third... there was one too good for him (16/1 shot) and he lost second due to a bit of general blundering in the later stages. The bit that annoys me is that there's nothing about the winner to suggest he was likely to win, first time over hurdles after a fairly uneventful career on the flat where he was rated mid 60's. I know it happens, but it's a bit like you take extra care traffic watching before crossing the road and get gobbled by Godzilla halfway across.....


Report for : 06/01/2022
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/12 Odds: 3.0 4.0 3.0 (Return: 13.0)
Mkt filter 3/8 Odds: 3.0 4.0 3.0 (Return: 13.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/5 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/7 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/7 Odds: 0.11 (Return: 1.11)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 0.11 (Return: 1.11)

Total Out = 31 Total return (raw) = 14.11
Total wins: 4 / 31
List of winners:
New 14:00:00 Society Red 4.0
Che 17:30:00 Split Elevens 5.0
Che 18:00:00 Trepidation 4.0
Che 13:40:00 Ask A Honey Bee (IRE) 1.11

Meh.

Tomorrow:
1641592509273.png

In part i think how this trio does will be a guide to how the rest of jan is likely to go, which doesn't leave me overly optimistic as I don't really fancy them much - but then that's partly due to the way things have gone lately I suppose......


Dave
 

Attachments

  • 08-jan-22.xlsx
    77.1 KB · Views: 5
Report for : 07/01/2022
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/16 Odds: 7.0 0.83 (Return: 9.83)
Mkt filter 2/7 Odds: 7.0 0.83 (Return: 9.83)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/5 Odds: 2.75 (Return: 3.75)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 2.75 (Return: 3.75)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 26 Total return (raw) = 13.58
Total wins: 3 / 26
List of winners:
Lin 13:05:00 Agent Of Fortune 8.0
Lin 15:50:00 Devizes (IRE) 1.83
Wol 16:30:00 Quick Change 3.75

Another meh day.

What did I say last night? One NR, one lost (drifted to 9/2, opening at 7/2 touched 3/1 sort of suggests that wasn't unexpected but was no use to anyone backing earlier in the day) and one winner at a less than massive 2/5. Now I know that last one, Constitution Hill, has become the latest second coming so the ratings did pick the winner, but many more 'winning days' like this and we'll be in queer street! You can win all the way to the poor house in this game, and a few good priced winners are definitely needed. Motivation is slipping somewhat, although we're not at death's door both my wife and I have had a long, drab, series of 'you're over 60, time for something else to run down or fall off' and the daily routine could do with a few bright spots! I've long planned to have a go at the AW 'properly' and I might do that, but I'm starting to find keeping up with all codes becoming more of a chore than a delight, so a rethink might be in order as I enjoy the sport itself and don't want to go off it due to a feeling of being on a treadmill. Nothing hasty planned....

No picks tomorrow.

Dave
 

Attachments

  • 09-jan-22.xlsx
    43.8 KB · Views: 2
Hi davejb davejb
Quite a few Trainers give their runners the Flu jab at this time of the year and that might be the reason some are not firing like the ratings suggest they should.👍🏇🏻
 
Last edited:
Yeah,
though to be honest about the only time you can be sure a trainer has probably got his runner(s) firing on all cylinders and ready to do their absolute best is Cheltenham week! It's not about the winners to any significant degree, I kind of take satisfaction from having a decent number of winners or a good return on a daily basis as I process the results each day in the main - I'll have a tenner a race on something when I'm at the races (I give my wife a fiver per race, not because she'll do worse than myself but because I never see any of it ever again) but I'm not much of a TV based punter, I watch out of interest in the horses more than anything else. The thing is, having given it a good go, I'm pretty sure that I'm not going to find anything that will consistently beat the bookies - and it's that bit of the game I've been hammering away at, not for profit but just the satisfaction of finding a decently consistent edge.

The ratings, as Mike will tell you, are very time consuming, and I'm beginning to view the daily ritual as a chore - you have to process the results, you have to do the next day's cards.... that's two periods a day where I feel I have to do something and I didn't really retire to force myself into unpaid labour :D That's a few hours a week I can sit and read, or park in a cafe, or more likely recline upon the sofa (reclining sofa, best thing we've bought in years), the point is not having to do something. The ratings problem is they do have to be done daily, you can't skip a day now and then, so if I decide to rethink this I'll maybe look at how I can use what I've learned to produce something that can be picked up or put down when I feel like it - there is no doubt in my mind at all that I'd like a break from it.... I'm just unwilling to stop unless I'm absolutely convinced I should because it'd be a nightmare to have to try to pick up the threads after a break.

Combine that with a few health issues - nothing on your wife's scale but still fairly limiting - and I'm finding walking the dog each afternoon a bit of a chore, never mind trying to take an interest in Wetherby in the mud!

Lots of thinking to do, this was never meant to become a job, and I'm thinking of how to ensure it doesn't.
Dave
 
Here’s hoping davejb davejb that you are able to find a balance so that you don’t have to work so hard with regards Ratings. I used to keep my own speed and Pace ratings and found it very time consuming and I can fully empathise with how you are currently feeling, especially if health issues are also having to be overcome too.

One thing for sure, you have proved that you produce better speed figures than those that are commercially available and for that you should congratulate yourself on a job well done.

I thing the hardest part of using speed figures is knowing (Often in my case guessing) when a horse likely to be able to replicate their past figures In a race to their advantage. They can run a good figure in a certain class of opposition, but not be able to match that figure when faced with a higher class, not sure if it is psychological or that the pace set up is different and they don’t get chance to get a breather in and just run out of fuel and they record a slower time figure than they have in lower class races.
 
davejb davejb reading some of your above i wanted to make a positive contribution. The pleasure i obtain from this thread is reading your thoughts and comments Re life in general and whatever your decisions Re Racing i hope you will continue to share the former.

As per Chesham Chesham above i can also empathise when the commitment starts feeling more a chore than a positive interest, and when " Own Ratings " are the starting point of a selection process there are no easy answers.

Now two years into the strange days of this pandemic it is a wonder that anyone can focus. Personally i find attempting to maintain a sense of humour helps and you have this in spades. :)
 
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