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Early days

davejb

Stallion
Report for : 23/11/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/4 Odds: 1.1 (Return: 2.1)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 1.1 (Return: 2.1)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/4 Odds: 20.0 0.67 (Return: 22.67)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 0.67 (Return: 1.67)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/12 Odds: 3.0 1.63 1.63 (Return: 9.26)
Mkt filter 3/5 Odds: 3.0 1.63 1.63 (Return: 9.26)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/8 Odds: 1.63 (Return: 2.63)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 1.63 (Return: 2.63)

Total Out = 28 Total return (raw) = 36.66
Total wins: 7 / 28
List of winners:
Wol 16:00:00 Tropez Power (IRE) 21.0
Wol 17:30:00 Nizaaka (FR) 1.67
Wol 18:00:00 Mondammej 2.1
Pun 12:00:00 Busselton (FR) 2.63
Sou 12:50:00 Ebony Gale 4.0
Sed 13:45:00 Obey The Rules (IRE) 2.63
Sou 15:25:00 Major Snugfit 2.63

Better.

Two for tomorrow:
1637788627186.png
The second of these two is a fairly indifferent chap in a low grade race against even less prepossessing opponents, as such he is hard to oppose and will be a lousy price. The other looks a reasonable chance in a novice.

Dave
 

Attachments

  • 25-nov-21.xlsx
    73.3 KB · Views: 0

davejb

Stallion
Report for : 24/11/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/10 Odds: 3.33 (Return: 4.33)
Mkt filter 1/6 Odds: 3.33 (Return: 4.33)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/7 Odds: 7.5 2.25 0.13 (Return: 12.88)
Mkt filter 2/5 Odds: 2.25 0.13 (Return: 4.38)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/6 Odds: 1.2 2.0 (Return: 5.2)
Mkt filter 2/6 Odds: 1.2 2.0 (Return: 5.2)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/6 Odds: 0.29 (Return: 1.29)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 0.29 (Return: 1.29)

Total Out = 29 Total return (raw) = 23.7
Total wins: 7 / 29
List of winners:
Dun 14:00:00 Doitforandrew 8.5
Kem 17:15:00 Sound Angela 3.25
Kem 17:45:00 Harry Three 1.13
Kem 20:15:00 Naval Commander 4.33
Wet 13:45:00 Oscar Robertson (IRE) 2.2
Wet 14:50:00 Darling Du Large (FR) 3.0
Her 15:40:00 Lallygag (GER) 1.29

Mmmmm, could do better.

Today's picks came 2nd and 3rd - the likely odds on Celestial Force drifted quite a lot in the market pre race, a move he justified by clouting one hard enough to knock the finish out of him. Neither gave any real hint that they were likely to win. Still, poor races, not exactly the place to look for consistently good runners I suppose. I do wonder if maybe a class limit would help....

Tomorrow:

1637871746931.png

Better races, better horses - I consider both of these to be a bit of a gamble, although both are quite capable of winning - Tea Clipper looks good but has a 5lb penalty and although that isn't a massive burden it could make all the difference against his opponents who are all pretty much on a par otherwise. Indefatigable was a winner at the end of October for the picks at 5/1 so I suppose it's arguable that he has paid for his bet up front - the likely favourite is Paisley Park, who deserves respect and there are a couple of others in here to make a contest of it, so basically no sure things today but both ought at least to give a decent run ..... it says here....

Dave
 

Attachments

  • 26-nov-21.xlsx
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davejb

Stallion
Report for : 25/11/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/11 Odds: 4.5 (Return: 5.5)
Mkt filter 1/5 Odds: 4.5 (Return: 5.5)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/6 Odds: 4.0 2.25 (Return: 8.25)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 2.25 (Return: 3.25)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/11 Odds: 18.0 1.0 (Return: 21.0)
Mkt filter 2/9 Odds: 18.0 1.0 (Return: 21.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/9 Odds: 0.3 (Return: 1.3)
Mkt filter 1/5 Odds: 0.3 (Return: 1.3)

Total Out = 37 Total return (raw) = 36.05
Total wins: 6 / 37
List of winners:
Wol 14:35:00 Grandfather Tom 5.5
Che 17:20:00 Be Glorious 5.0
Che 17:50:00 Arion 3.25
Thu 12:35:00 Ciankyle (IRE) 19.0
Thu 13:05:00 Cilaos Emery (FR) 1.3
Tau 13:25:00 Nelsons Rock 2.0

Getting warmer....

Today's picks both trailled around at the back, Tea Clipper ended up 2nd (about 30l adrift) as two of the other 3 didn't finish. Indefatigable was never in it, trainer and jockey couldn't begin to explain the performance. Personally I think some hideous imp creature reads these posts and then screws the runners up.

Tomorrow there's a whole bunch, if these all go south I will probably shoot myself.

1637954373618.png

...no pressure.....

Dave
 

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  • 27-nov-21.xlsx
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davejb

Stallion
Report for : 26/11/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/14 Odds: 12.0 0.8 (Return: 14.8)
Mkt filter 2/9 Odds: 12.0 0.8 (Return: 14.8)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/6 Odds: 2.75 0.33 (Return: 5.08)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 0.33 (Return: 1.33)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/8 Odds: 1.38 14.0 2.0 (Return: 20.38)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 2.0 (Return: 3.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/5 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 33 Total return (raw) = 40.26
Total wins: 7 / 33
List of winners:
Lin 14:05:00 Muscika 13.0
Che 16:45:00 Maritime Rules (IRE) 3.75
Dun 17:30:00 Chaos Control (IRE) 1.8
Dun 18:30:00 Brostaigh (IRE) 1.33
Don 12:30:00 Barton Knoll 2.38
New 13:50:00 Not Available (IRE) 15.0
New 14:25:00 Fanion Destruval (FR) 3.0

Better again,

Today's picks - Bangor was abandoned and Stumptown a non runner, leaving 4. 2 lost, two won, at 2/5 and evens.... so a bit of a loss.

Tomorrow:

1638044630411.png
Dave
 

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  • 28-nov-21.xlsx
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davejb

Stallion
Report for : 27/11/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/5 Odds: 3.0 (Return: 4.0)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 3.0 (Return: 4.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/5 Odds: 0.13 8.0 2.25 (Return: 13.38)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 0.13 (Return: 1.13)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/16 Odds: 3.33 (Return: 4.33)
Mkt filter 1/7 Odds: 3.33 (Return: 4.33)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/12 Odds: 0.4 1.0 1.63 3.5 (Return: 10.53)
Mkt filter 2/2 Odds: 0.4 3.5 (Return: 5.9)

Total Out = 38 Total return (raw) = 32.24
Total wins: 9 / 38
List of winners:
Wol 16:30:00 Papa Dont Preach (IRE) 1.13
Wol 17:30:00 Cygneture 9.0
Wol 18:00:00 Silver Screen 3.25
Wol 19:00:00 Abnaa 4.0
Don 12:35:00 Brief Times (IRE) 1.4
Fai 13:01:00 Gringo Daubrelle (FR) 2.0
Don 13:08:00 Nextdoortoalice (IRE) 2.63
Don 14:18:00 Herbiers (FR) 4.33
Don 14:53:00 Le Fils De Force 4.5

Humph.
Today's picks were dire again, only Honeysuckle won and at 2/5 the returns were hardly inspiring. If this carries on much longer the bookies will be wanting to sponsor me as an online tipster....

Tomorrow:
1638125206928.png

Dave
 

Attachments

  • 29-nov-21.xlsx
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davejb

Stallion
Report for : 28/11/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/6 Odds: 0.4 14.0 (Return: 16.4)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 0.4 (Return: 1.4)

Total Out = 10 Total return (raw) = 16.4
Total wins: 2 / 10
List of winners:
Fai 14:40:00 Honeysuckle 1.4
Fai 15:40:00 Kilbunny Pontic (IRE) 15.0

Well, just 2 winners, so good job one was at 14/1 then!
Pick wise Lebowski did the job at Ayr, but 8/11 isn't making anyone rich. None tomorrow.
Just ordered an IJF calendar up for next year, we have one pinned up all year and only ever seem to have one thing to actually write on it - hospital or Doctor's appointments (barring one or two for the dentist).... no 'remember to get dinner jacket cleaned for annual MI6 Christmas Thrash with JB, M and Q' ever gets written up there. On the other hand the appointments seem to be increasing exponentially, at this rate by the age of 70 I'll be spending more time in waiting rooms than my own home. I wear my IJF scarf quite often in winter, so that was a decent buy at Aintree a couple of years back, but the diary for 2021 never got a word written in it. Having agreed to pay £10 for the calendar, my wife having said we need a new one and she likes them with either horses or steam trains on them, the 4.95 for p&p seemed a bit steep, and I ignored the suggestion that I might like to round it up to £20 with a gift aid add on....
Dave
 

mick

Sire
davejb davejb Re your above can you workout and start posting some Speed Figs for medical attention waiting times. Lets start with the prep run of time taken to get the phone answered by a fellow human. :eek:
 

davejb

Stallion
Well mick mick
That's a problem, my wife was '23rd in the queue" a few days back whilst trying to get through, which she did eventually succeed in doing. Today, on the other hand, I got through at the 2nd attempt to the 'waiting list office' who wrote to tell me about an op I have coming up, informing me that if I failed to phone them and confirm I was coming then I might be removed from the list. The phone was answered by an answerphone message saying they were too busy to answer the phone so could I leave my hospital number etc after the beep. My wife attended hospital one evening, was accepted by the medical department in question, but told she'd have to wait in A&E for a bed to be provided. She sat there until being told at 8am the next day that there would be no bed, and she could sit there even longer or go home. On yet another hand I was seen by a GP, referred to a specialist, had an MRI and CT scan, and have an op all set up - all that took probably a month, no more.

I'd say that it all depends on what you have or they think might have, something really uncomfortable and debilitating (my wife's case) can drag on for ever and ever, 7 months and counting, while in my case it's all be rather quick. Some departments are busy as hell while others seem to be almost desperate for something to do - rather than speed ratings I think it'd make more sense to cobble up a list of recommended illnesses and diseases, being those conditions that seem to elicit a speedy response.

Of course a lot of this has been badly exacerbated by covid, who knows what it'd be like 'normally', if anyone can remember what normal was like?

Cheer up, Santa's coming.
Dave
 

davejb

Stallion
Well that's odd - I have just literally this minute realised I didn't post today's ratings on last night's post - I did them, I have the records etc on my PC so I can check how they did etc in the morning, but whatever I did with them I have no clue.... possibly I attached them to another post or something! Never mind. As some of the above post info probably suggests I'm a bit distracted at the moment, nothing to panic about as yet but my wife and I do seem to be spending an awful lot of time at the hospital these days - I imagine a few of the older members on here have similar periods in their lives now and then. We also had my daughter and her partner with us for a few days - they extended the visit a couple of days, largely I think because of the catering. Life just seems so darn busy sometimes, considering this is meant to be retirement.


Report for : 29/11/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/12 Odds: 2.75 3.33 (Return: 8.08)
Mkt filter 2/9 Odds: 2.75 3.33 (Return: 8.08)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/6 Odds: 0.5 (Return: 1.5)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 0.5 (Return: 1.5)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/3 Odds: 0.73 (Return: 1.73)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 0.73 (Return: 1.73)

Total Out = 24 Total return (raw) = 11.31
Total wins: 4 / 24
List of winners:
Wol 16:30:00 Pallas Dancer 3.75
Wol 18:00:00 Serenading 4.33
Wol 18:30:00 Wonder Elmossman (IRE) 1.5
Ayr 12:30:00 Lebowski (IRE) 1.73

No picks today, none tomorrow. Of course there's a fairly quiet spell about to start as a lot of trainers aim so many at the Boxing Day fixtures, but I'd expect a few to pop up over the next 2-3 weeks.

Dave
 

Attachments

  • 01-dec-21.xlsx
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davejb

Stallion
As I omitted to post the ratings for yesterday these results are just for info (and so nobody imagines I'd only post good ones!)

Report for : 30/11/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/12 Odds: 1.0 4.0 (Return: 7.0)
Mkt filter 2/9 Odds: 1.0 4.0 (Return: 7.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/5 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/3 Odds: 1.38 (Return: 2.38)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 1.38 (Return: 2.38)

Total Out = 24 Total return (raw) = 9.38
Total wins: 3 / 24
List of winners:
Lin 14:15:00 Sky Power (IRE) 2.0
Lin 14:45:00 Sea Of Charm (FR) 5.0
Sou 15:00:00 Lydford 2.38

Lousy win rate, the AW (2/3 meetings yesterday) ratings haven't done well for months and months.

For tomorrow:
1638387063347.png

Both of these are in newcomers' races with plenty of unexposed types that have run once or not at all, I don't think they are betting opportunities.

Dave
 

Attachments

  • 02-dec-21.xlsx
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davejb

Stallion
Report for : 01/12/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/12 Odds: 6.5 (Return: 7.5)
Mkt filter 1/6 Odds: 6.5 (Return: 7.5)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/9 Odds: 1.38 3.5 (Return: 6.88)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 1.38 (Return: 2.38)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/2 Odds: 1.5 (Return: 2.5)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 25 Total return (raw) = 16.88
Total wins: 4 / 25
List of winners:
Lin 14:30:00 Equal Share (IRE) 2.38
Dun 14:40:00 Doitforandrew 4.5
Kem 19:30:00 Fitzrovia 7.5
Hay 13:50:00 Kiltealy Briggs (IRE) 2.5

1 win at 6/5 from 2 picks.
Tomorrow:
1638477039606.png


Dave
 

Attachments

  • 03-dec-21.xlsx
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davejb

Stallion
Report for : 02/12/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/6 Odds: 5.0 (Return: 6.0)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 5.0 (Return: 6.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/1 Odds: 4.0 (Return: 5.0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/15 Odds: 2.25 (Return: 3.25)
Mkt filter 1/11 Odds: 2.25 (Return: 3.25)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/12 Odds: 1.2 0.25 2.5 (Return: 6.95)
Mkt filter 3/3 Odds: 1.2 0.25 2.5 (Return: 6.95)

Total Out = 34 Total return (raw) = 21.2
Total wins: 6 / 34
List of winners:
Che 17:00:00 Notoriously Risky 5.0
Che 18:30:00 Copinet 6.0
Mar 12:52:00 Tease And Seize (FR) 2.2
Win 13:15:00 Rainyday Woman 1.25
Mar 15:22:00 Chianti Classico (IRE) 3.5
Lei 15:37:00 Rock On Tommy 3.25

Could have been better.

Picks - of the three today 2 won, both romping away with their races although Lossiemouth did clout the second last. The commentator then called his last jump 'athletic' or similar, to be honest it looked to me like he momentarily had his legs going in different directions but he landed and ran off into the distance really well. 4/9 the first, Forever Blessed, Lossiemouth 7/1. The one in the middle ran 2nd.

There are a bunch tomorrow -

1638558653602.png

A busy day there then. From the stats so far 3 of these ought to win....the question is, which three? In reality there are no guarantees, they might all come a cropper. Three of them are currently forecast/offered at odds on(Elimay, Riviere Detel and Chacun Pour Soi) so that could be the 'expected three' and there'd still be a loss on the day..... decisions, decisions!

Dave
 

Attachments

  • 04-dec-21.xlsx
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davejb

Stallion
Report for : 03/12/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/16 Odds: 12.0 (Return: 13.0)
Mkt filter 0/8 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/12 Odds: 11.0 1.75 2.5 (Return: 18.25)
Mkt filter 3/9 Odds: 11.0 1.75 2.5 (Return: 18.25)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/8 Odds: 2.13 0.44 7.0 (Return: 12.57)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 0.44 (Return: 1.44)

Total Out = 38 Total return (raw) = 43.82
Total wins: 7 / 38
List of winners:
New 18:15:00 Lord Of The Lodge (IRE) 13.0
Exe 12:55:00 Hermes Boy (FR) 3.13
Sed 13:05:00 El Jefe (IRE) 12.0
San 13:15:00 Forever Blessed (IRE) 1.44
Exe 13:30:00 Tip Top Cat (IRE) 2.75
San 14:25:00 Lossiemouth 8.0
San 15:35:00 Pileon (IRE) 3.5

Better, not brilliant but better.

Today's picks - it turned out to be 2 winners, one of them was the 1/4 shot Riviere Detel, the other (thank goodness) was Libberty Hunter at 6/1, saving a bad day all round. Nett profit all of 0.25! As happens I was in no hurry to bet, in fact I almost didn't at all, so I lucked right in, betting on White Pepper onwards, skipping Riviere Detel due to the odds, so I had WP, Warlord, Chacun Pour Dogfoo sorry, Chacun Pour Soi, and Libberty Hunter. I took Warlord at 17/2 EW, and got a fair return when he came second at 10/1, so ended up betting 4 pts and getting over 8 back.... who says crime doesn't pay?

I quite often miss the early ones, my wife and I have had quite a lot of appointments at the GP and hospital, and whilst they often don't take all that long it's usually an hour's round trip and a half hour plus of extra waiting due to the hospital - sometimes longer, I've actually been the only patient in the pre op department, waiting for a simple blood test, and not been seen on time. Throw in a lot of phone calls as 'they' call me to ask questions I already answered for someone else (left hand/right hand is very obvious I'm afraid) and I'm either out, too bushed, or can't be bothered.....

That leads into my upcoming absence, probably only for 24 hours, as I have a minor day surgery job on Monday. I'll post as usual tomorrow but probably not on Monday, as I'll be getting ko'd for the op and although I ought to be out later in the day I might end up staying in, and either way I'll probably be a bit sore and not really feeling like doing the horsey stuff. So expect me back when I reappear! (it's just a bit of a look see job, nothing getting chopped off or anything, but I've had some breathing issues for a while and they're trying to figure out what's what).

Tomorrow:
1638649298761.png

Dave
 

Attachments

  • 05-dec-21.xlsx
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Last edited:

davejb

Stallion
Report for : 04/12/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/5 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/3 Odds: 2.5 (Return: 3.5)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/17 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/8 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/19 Odds: 10.0 0.25 4.0 6.0 (Return: 24.25)
Mkt filter 2/6 Odds: 0.25 4.0 (Return: 6.25)

Total Out = 44 Total return (raw) = 27.75
Total wins: 5 / 44
List of winners:
Wol 16:30:00 Last Ammo (IRE) 3.5
Nav 12:00:00 The Goffer (IRE) 11.0
Nav 13:43:00 Riviere Detel (FR) 1.25
Ain 14:05:00 Protektorat (FR) 5.0
Che 15:09:00 Libberty Hunter 7.0

A bit like one of my old school reports from 40-50 years back. 'could do better'.

Picks today - one win, at 5/6.... after a great deal of toing and froing the result of the past 5 or 6 weeks effort has been a nett gain of about 2.5 pts.....

Tomorrow:
1638735193217.png

As I said yesterday, I am now going offline for a day or two, obviously it'll all depend how I feel and how quickly i get let out. See you all soon,
Dave
 

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  • 06-dec-21.xlsx
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