The reported industry figs i read revealed that less than 2% ( of the millions attempting ) make any long term profit let alone a worthwhile one and Betfair claim that only 1.75 % of there customers become liable for the Premium Charge so this supports your realistic conclusion. What i would add is considering the number of punters involved this still allows for a few to succeed long term. Perhaps longevity and retaining a good net earn on balance is the real benchmark and if so i can still count myself as one of the few.
when I'm emperor anyone who does ANYTHING before 20 Dec is going to get thrown to the lions
Similar occurs in the UK Pete and as a result long prior to cometh the day many people are already feeling piddled off with it all. They then face the double whammy of having the January credit card statements arrive. Over kill in both cases. !took the bins out tonight, noticed two of my neighbours had christmas lights up already. No idea how long they have been lit-up. I suspect they would have done it this last weekend while they were off work.
Good post davejb containing much that i can relate to. Staking aside i have never found any KISS principles which work for myself and why should they because the reasons why a horse may win or lose a race are many and often complicated, indeed i tend to feel suspicion when an apparent easy find presents.Whilst I suppose it is theoretically possible that there is a simple, don't have to work very hard way to make a profit, I doubt it.... anything that 'broke' the model to the point where bookies could be caned regularly by anyone who'd been given the magic formula would have done so by now I reckon.
As well as hard work I think you need a decent brain for the task - I don't mean a pHD and a brain that can microwave beans at 20 paces, I mean a brain that has the peculiar wiring needed to juggle lots of different bits and bobs and somehow make sense out of it all - I'm sure there are people 'out there' who, over (probably) decades accumulate enough experience, and have the memory to remember the important bits, to apply what they already know to what is going to resemble a situation they've seen repeatedly. Most of us pick and choose bits, flit from idea to idea, and never focus on anything for long enough to get the important lesson from it - I don't think it's IQ sort of brains, I think it's the ability to focus allied with an ability to see the wood for the trees. Most people don't work like that, it's not dissimilar to the idea of common sense - we might know of people who we think of as being well endowed with common sense, but most of the people we know don't seem to have that knack.
took the bins out tonight, noticed two of my neighbours had christmas lights up already. No idea how long they have been lit-up. I suspect they would have done it this last weekend while they were off work.