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Early days

davejb

Stallion
Report for : 13/11/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/7 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/5 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/10 Odds: 1.38 1.5 3.0 1.0 (Return: 10.88)
Mkt filter 2/3 Odds: 1.38 1.5 (Return: 4.88)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/14 Odds: 1.25 (Return: 2.25)
Mkt filter 1/6 Odds: 1.25 (Return: 2.25)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/14 Odds: 1.1 2.0 4.5 (Return: 10.6)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 45 Total return (raw) = 23.73
Total wins: 8 / 45
List of winners:
Lin 15:05:00 Good Effort (IRE) 2.38
Lin 15:40:00 Pyledriver 2.5
Wol 17:30:00 Botanist 4.0
Wol 18:30:00 Desert Emperor 2.0
Utt 12:22:00 Jack Sharp (IRE) 2.1
Pun 13:48:00 Top Bandit 3.0
Wet 14:35:00 Lakota Warrior (IRE) 5.5
Wet 15:10:00 First Impression (IRE) 2.25

Pfft.

Today's picks did okay, a 2nd and 2 winners, 4/6 and 3/1.
No picks tomorrow.

I've been keeping a results file for the picks, going back to when I started them last February or so. Unfortunately the flat picks and Aw ones proved pretty lame, so I decided a few months back that I'd only bother with the NH, and that they wouldn't be any use until the season got going properly, sometime in October - in fact I did wonder if I'd be waiting for November, as in previous years I've had good runs in early to mid December as I recall.

Anyhow, I didn't want to have this year's record tacked onto the end of last year's, so I decided on 1 Nov as the 2021/2 start date, so to speak, and today saw bet number 23 win (Timeforatune) bringing results so far to 10 from 23, 30.53 returned for a profit of 7.53. Winrate is 43.48%, ROI 133%. Whilst this could be considered cherry picking it is consistent with my mutterings over the past few months about when it was all going to kick off again, and if I'd included the last week of october the numbers would look even better. This way whatever the bottom line says on my spreadsheet I know it's all from this season of the jumps, and excludes several weeks of those 'one previous winner v 6 unraced novice hurdlers' picks that the past month or two was cluttered up with. (Which I also said, a number of times, I didn't consider to be runners to bet on).

Anyone who doesn't agree with my decision can easily 'correct' my numbers by removing 23 bets, 10 winners, and 30.53 from the returns that I may mention in future, and simply keep tabs starting from now. In the final analysis I keep records to inform my own betting, and so I can be honest with myself about how things are going, the only 'fiddle' here is that I frequently skip runners that I think are too far odds on, or those that are up against some well odds on hotshot I have no rating for, or (let's face it) those I consider bad bets because of something I know about the horse or its opponents - I'm not going over a cliff backing something with three legs just because my ratings went doolally one day at Listowel!

I do not place large bets, I am not trying to earn a wage from this, this is entirely for fun - my main motivation is simply to be able to say I can beat the bookies over a period of time.... I'm solving a puzzle for fun. On the plus side that means my paltry stakes don't tend to cause me problems with accounts being limited or closed. (Ladbrokes - "Sorry Davejb, but you have too many winners lately, we are limiting your next bet to £2.57 " Me: "Sod that, I'm not putting as much as that on a horse just to make you lot happy!") If you want to be a pro go follow mick mick or one of the other serious types!

Dave
 

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  • 15-nov-21.xlsx
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mick

Sire
davejb davejb Re your above reference to myself i would suggest that needs must we are both serious in our approaches but likewise ever willing to have some fun along the way. It is only a play on words but i have never liked the title Professional Backer and tended to use Full Timer. Although now 68 yrs old i am no longer sure i am either. :eek:

Re your record keeping i have detailed accounts going back many years, not just the bottom lines of profit - expenses - Roi, but also bet type and the situations involved. The more data available from our past actual bets then the greater its worth. I suspect i am now winding down and after 50 yrs involvement can honestly say that i have enjoyed the journey on balance.

Less enjoyable now is the practices and attitude of the once respected large firm Bookmakers and should you continue to average your 33% Roi you may find that even your smaller stake wagering will attract negative attention. As you know i do not deploy race times to any big extent as part of my selection process and perhaps this is why we do not interact much on this thread but its always a positive experience when we do so cheers for that. :)
 
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davejb

Stallion
I consider myself a professional mick mick - (tongue in cheek) - as I believe I am realistic about the chances most have of making money, never mind a living, at this game.

Obviously as I've been doing this I've picked up knowledge and understanding of things beyond the ability to compute a speed figure and spot which one in a race is the biggest number, things like whether the race conditions suit, is the draw an issue, is the horse's past form actually any good? It is quite possible to earn a slightly flattering speed figure down the field that will look good next time out but doesn't actually then get repeated - so having a clue whether a speed figure is unlikely to be followed up with another good one is pretty useful .... I've also learned to avoid races where everyone is guessing at ability as there's no form to look at. Lots of little things in fact that I was largely unaware of, or too preoccupied to notice, when I started.

One of the most important things I've noticed is that it is bloody difficult to actually win over time. It seems to me that we go through periods where we can do little wrong, and others when we can do nothing right - more than half the battle is knowing when to stand back while a bad period plays out, as if you are only betting when you are doing okay and skip the bits with the long losing spells then you've a lot better chance of staying ahead.

If you are picking bets based on mental gymnastics juggling form then this might not be possible - there's maybe a tendency to imagine your judgement is impaired when a string of losers comes along, when actually it's perhaps that your judgement is spot on for sunny days with good going but you aren't as good at figuring relative advantages on soft going. It's easier with the ratings, because when the going changes and similar they go to pot quite obviously a lot of the time, and it's easier to spot when you need to hold off a bit. in my view this allows me to go quiet earlier on in a losing run than might otherwise be the case, and so while my ratings put up 20 losers I'm sitting there having let the last 15 of them go past with a watching brief. I do then need, of course, to spot when to get back in... I don't want 20 winners to go past untouched, after all :D Obviously this isn't so all the time by any means, but just missing a couple of losing runs a year can make a big difference to the bottom line. It's not automatic by any means, that would be too easy and the Universe doesn't work that way!

My records are of every horse that ran, recording the race details along with my ratings for them, what position they were in the betting market, what position they were in my ratings, stuff like that. I then have programs that work out percentage values for things like win and place for each trainer, each jockey, each racecourse, so I can check all sorts of ideas out if I can a thought about what might constitute a good idea. I can state quite categorically that a good idea that makes a decent profit over time is a very rare thing indeed. Anyone wanting to make quick and easy money should pick some other route to follow!

Take care mate,
Dave
 

mick

Sire
I consider myself a professional mick mick - (tongue in cheek) - as I believe I am realistic about the chances most have of making money, never mind a living, at this game.
The reported industry figs i read revealed that less than 2% ( of the millions attempting ) make any long term profit let alone a worthwhile one and Betfair claim that only 1.75 % of there customers become liable for the Premium Charge so this supports your realistic conclusion. What i would add is considering the number of punters involved this still allows for a few to succeed long term. Perhaps longevity and retaining a good net earn on balance is the real benchmark and if so i can still count myself as one of the few.

Personally i find the task more difficult than say ten years ago and can understand some of the reasons why, but there will be others who think and find different and i say well done them because i like to see anyone taking money from the Bookmakers who i used to have some respect for but now view the majority as parasites.

Re your use of Professional i think you are because you clearly put plenty of time effort and thought into your hobby an option open to most but taken by few. Self proclaimed and crowing Professional Backers can be another matter as i recall in my early days i actively sought there company only to find that most did not appear to have much money indeed they where often after mine. :eek:

Re your thoughts on long losing runs i agree they are a sod but i long ago accepted also part of the price, and if your paying for them from profits already accrued then in theory ( apart from sleep during ) your not losing anything. I once saw them described as a negative correction which reads kinda poncy but also seems to suit. ;)
 
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davejb

Stallion
Report for : 14/11/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 4/12 Odds: 5.0 3.0 4.0 2.0 (Return: 18.0)
Mkt filter 3/8 Odds: 3.0 4.0 2.0 (Return: 12.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 6/18 Odds: 1.63 1.5 1.75 4.0 0.67 3.0 (Return: 18.55)
Mkt filter 3/6 Odds: 1.63 0.67 3.0 (Return: 8.3)

Total Out = 30 Total return (raw) = 36.55
Total wins: 10 / 30
List of winners:
Pun 12:30:00 Vanillier (FR) 2.63
Fon 13:25:00 Rizzardo 6.0
Che 13:45:00 Yala Enki (FR) 4.0
Pun 14:05:00 Sharjah (FR) 2.5
Pun 14:40:00 Mr Fred Rogers (IRE) 2.75
Cor 15:05:00 Queen Jesse Jay 5.0
Fon 15:10:00 Salty Boy (IRE) 5.0
Che 15:30:00 I Like To Move It 1.67
Fon 15:43:00 Quinta Do Mar (IRE) 3.0
Che 16:00:00 Timeforatune 4.0

Well well, a better day!
No picks though today, so no races to report on, none tomorrow either.... makes it hard to decide if the ratings have started a good run if they don't throw any picks up!

mick mick Minimal numbers making long term profit - it should be the absolute expectation of anyone not putting serious effort in, frankly, because racing is a puzzle where the possible outcome of a race is affected by so many factors, most of which will change during a race. You can't even be sure your horse and jockey will actually be trying to win, half the time.

Then there's simply days when jockeys make bad decisions, or the horse starts a fraction slow and ends up stuck in traffic, you only have to watch the final bend at Wolverhampton (and lots of other tracks) a few times to realise you want to see your horse catapult off it, and nobody is going to come from very far back to win.

All you can do is play the odds, and the bookies set the odds, and over time the odds turn out to be just a little bit too tight to make a profit from. You simply have to work hard at this, and think things through with good data to hand, because data often tells us we have misunderstood something... we might say ' an inside draw there over x furlongs is what you want', but it's only when the results show that to be the case that it's worth paying attention to. Most people simply do not wish to work as hard as is needed, hence most people lose. Let's face it, it'd be easier to make money breeding poodles.
(But where's the fun in that?)

Dave
 

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davejb

Stallion
Report for : 15/11/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/7 Odds: 8.0 (Return: 9.0)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 8.0 (Return: 9.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/6 Odds: 0.2 (Return: 1.2)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 0.2 (Return: 1.2)

Total Out = 13 Total return (raw) = 10.2
Total wins: 2 / 13
List of winners:
Lei 14:00:00 Monarchofthegrange (IRE) 1.2
Plu 14:45:00 Jens Boy 9.0
Only 2 winners, good job one was at decent odds at least so it's not a complete whitewash.

Still no picks, I think they're all too busy putting up Christmas decorations - after all, there's only a month and a half to go.....when I'm emperor anyone who does ANYTHING before 20 Dec is going to get thrown to the lions, I don't care how nice the John Bloody lewis advert might be.

Have a humbug....
Dave
 

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footysystems

Gelding
Incredible thread and dedication you davejb davejb
mick mick most people don't make money your right 99% don't unless your very good and put the dedication in my field as you know is football it's taken me ten years of hard work to get to where I am now and it is possible but hard work pays as you know. Fascinating debate here love it.
 

davejb

Stallion
Whilst I suppose it is theoretically possible that there is a simple, don't have to work very hard way to make a profit, I doubt it.... anything that 'broke' the model to the point where bookies could be caned regularly by anyone who'd been given the magic formula would have done so by now I reckon.

As well as hard work I think you need a decent brain for the task - I don't mean a pHD and a brain that can microwave beans at 20 paces, I mean a brain that has the peculiar wiring needed to juggle lots of different bits and bobs and somehow make sense out of it all - I'm sure there are people 'out there' who, over (probably) decades accumulate enough experience, and have the memory to remember the important bits, to apply what they already know to what is going to resemble a situation they've seen repeatedly. Most of us pick and choose bits, flit from idea to idea, and never focus on anything for long enough to get the important lesson from it - I don't think it's IQ sort of brains, I think it's the ability to focus allied with an ability to see the wood for the trees. Most people don't work like that, it's not dissimilar to the idea of common sense - we might know of people who we think of as being well endowed with common sense, but most of the people we know don't seem to have that knack.

Dave
 

mick

Sire
took the bins out tonight, noticed two of my neighbours had christmas lights up already. No idea how long they have been lit-up. I suspect they would have done it this last weekend while they were off work.
Similar occurs in the UK Pete and as a result long prior to cometh the day many people are already feeling piddled off with it all. They then face the double whammy of having the January credit card statements arrive. :eek: Over kill in both cases. !
 

mick

Sire
Whilst I suppose it is theoretically possible that there is a simple, don't have to work very hard way to make a profit, I doubt it.... anything that 'broke' the model to the point where bookies could be caned regularly by anyone who'd been given the magic formula would have done so by now I reckon.

As well as hard work I think you need a decent brain for the task - I don't mean a pHD and a brain that can microwave beans at 20 paces, I mean a brain that has the peculiar wiring needed to juggle lots of different bits and bobs and somehow make sense out of it all - I'm sure there are people 'out there' who, over (probably) decades accumulate enough experience, and have the memory to remember the important bits, to apply what they already know to what is going to resemble a situation they've seen repeatedly. Most of us pick and choose bits, flit from idea to idea, and never focus on anything for long enough to get the important lesson from it - I don't think it's IQ sort of brains, I think it's the ability to focus allied with an ability to see the wood for the trees. Most people don't work like that, it's not dissimilar to the idea of common sense - we might know of people who we think of as being well endowed with common sense, but most of the people we know don't seem to have that knack.

Dave
Good post davejb davejb containing much that i can relate to. Staking aside i have never found any KISS principles which work for myself and why should they because the reasons why a horse may win or lose a race are many and often complicated, indeed i tend to feel suspicion when an apparent easy find presents.

Hard work and tenacity certainly play a part but to these i would add discipline because lack of appears to be the downfall of many. Over the years i have known some very intelligent and successful business people who have come seriously unstuck when becoming involved in horse race betting. Ego can prove the cause and is best locked away in this respect, and imo the bottom line remains that knowing when not to bet can prove half the job in more ways than one.

You mention the many who constantly flitter. While there is nothing wrong with investigating new ideas as a possible means of improving your current approach no one forces you to start betting on them too soon and or abandoning aspects which have worked in the past to quickly. I guess the hardest lesson i have learnt is that everything needs to be seen and judged in the longer term, and those who seek the quick fix solutions to profit are probably doing themselves no favours.

Re some of your other comments Chesham Chesham has been sharing some interesting posts recently concerning the part played by our subconscious, perhaps a case of if only we knew what we know, and imo anyone who is serious about attempting to turn a profit should take note and investigate this aspect even if they do not like the initial findings concerning themselves. :eek:

But its not all grief and after 50yrs involvement which has included plenty of highs and lows i still find much fascination while attempting to work at and solve the puzzle, and i feel grateful for this. :)
 
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markfinn

Sire
took the bins out tonight, noticed two of my neighbours had christmas lights up already. No idea how long they have been lit-up. I suspect they would have done it this last weekend while they were off work.
1637135247231.png

with all that's going on - it cannot come quick enough - shut the doors for best part of two weeks and reset for the new year, which will be same as the previous one but with inflation added, so put the CCards away there is a bill coming.

With regard to making or losing money on racing - Punters don't have to Bet - the theory that anyone other than the bookies can win every day is straight from cuckoo land, most know and don't care that they are losing money every week, unfortunately for them their loss is the winners gain.

After all the hot air and type spouted around the subject, whats really changed - as far as I can see BET FAIR and ability to lay and the ridiculous daily over stuffing of shite races with " also runs" you can almost do the write for most in some race's before they put a hoof on the course.
 
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davejb

Stallion
Report for : 16/11/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/16 Odds: 4.0 (Return: 5.0)
Mkt filter 1/7 Odds: 4.0 (Return: 5.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/8 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 24 Total return (raw) = 5.0
Total wins: 1 / 24
List of winners:
Lin 12:20:00 Sidi Ismael (FR) 5.0

No Christmas bonus there then....

There is actually a pick tomorrow -

1637178952477.png

A novice hurdle, but unlike earlier in the season they've all run a few times and there is therefore a little form for each runner, consequently we don't have the 'bunch of unknowns' issue that we'd have had a month ago. I'm not claiming this makes Ida's Boy a great bet, but it does make it a bit more like a non handicap hurdle off level weights for a handful of decent young hurdlers, and I would expect there to be a decent chance of a winner from it - bear in mind that when things are running well we're looking at about a 40% win rate over time.

Dave
 

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davejb

Stallion
...then he'd best stop clattering the jumps Chesham Chesham ! :D

Seriously though, Ida's Boy came 2nd by half a length, although he was never going to beat the winner it wasn't a bad run, beaten by the favourite.

Report for : 17/11/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/3 Odds: 0.67 (Return: 1.67)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 0.67 (Return: 1.67)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/12 Odds: 4.5 (Return: 5.5)
Mkt filter 1/8 Odds: 4.5 (Return: 5.5)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/9 Odds: 2.75 (Return: 3.75)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 28 Total return (raw) = 10.92
Total wins: 3 / 28
List of winners:
Dun 18:00:00 Stellar Spirit (IRE) 1.67
Ffo 13:25:00 Transfer Friendly (IRE) 3.75
War 14:50:00 Final Nudge (IRE) 5.5

Funny how results are often poor when there's not a lot of racing on, I suppose that when you are lucky to win 1 in 5 races and only have 28 on the card you expect to win 5 or 6, but if it isn't your day that turns into 3 instead. (The ratings I use as a check on things, based on RP standards, scored 2 for the day and returned 5.42 so whilst the above wasn't good it was better than it might have been! Granted, that is a bit like looking up at the iceberg from the water alongside the Titanic and realising you have your snorkel and face mask with you, so it's not all black....)

Pick wise, 2nd as reported above. Again, looking on the bright side, things have been okay for a while and when they don't win they are often second, which suggests the program isn't doing that bad a job. Tomorrow then:-

1637268766588.png

This ought to be a decent one, but bear in mind he's giving 6 lb to most and 14 lb to Brianna Rose so there's no guarantee here. I think he can still win, but then I think all sorts of things that turn out to be a bit awry so I wouldn't listen to me for a start......


Dave
 

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davejb

Stallion
Right, sorry about that - just as I was about to do the evening post as usual, having got all the data etc ready to copy and paste in, my internet decided to stop. It was restored this morning and I've spent a good few hours getting everything back up to date.
I won't go into how the ratings did for the past two days (nothing special), there were 3 picks yesterday that managed to lose, they've just been added to the record for my own information.

No picks tomorrow I'm afraid, so it's just tomorrow's ratings to add at the bottom and we're done.

Dave
 

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  • 22-nov-21.xlsx
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davejb

Stallion
Everything should be back to normal for tomorrow night's post - I did actually produce ratings for Sunday but as I didn't post them on here due to the internet problem there's little point saying how they got on. (I also overwrote the files accidentally as they got dated a day later, so today's stuff overwrote them). Missing the odd day like this is really annoying, many of my program routines automatically add date info to the filenames, which works great when it all runs smoothly but gets confusing if I am creating a file a day or two later than normally, as the auto date is not for the day of the actual racing .... it does mean I don't really get to take days off from doing it all, I'm not sure when I decided it was a good idea to have a hobby that dictated how I spent my leisure time but hey ho....

So, no idea how I did yesterday, or rather would have done had I produced everything on Saturday night. No picks today either.
There is one at Punchestown for tomorrow:

1637607236919.png

This one of JP O'Brien's has a decent chance, although he might not get to dictate things quite as easily as he has done in the last few runs, but his jumping is a bit of a concern - he usually manages to make a bit of a pigs of a fence or two, and whilst he could go off clear early on, put in a clear round and absolutely wipe the floor with the opposition the chances are he'll be a little less than foot perfect - the question is whether that'll be enough to cause him problems in this company. It's a novice chase, although these aren't unexposed by any means, so he probably won't be the only one finding the odd fence a struggle..... not a bad bet in my view, but one that could end up being lost if he clatters one too many.

Dave
 

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davejb

Stallion
Report for : 22/11/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/8 Odds: 3.5 1.63 (Return: 7.13)
Mkt filter 1/5 Odds: 3.5 (Return: 4.5)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/1 Odds: 1.63 (Return: 2.63)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 1.63 (Return: 2.63)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/12 Odds: 1.38 (Return: 2.38)
Mkt filter 0/7 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/4 Odds: 0.33 0.33 0.91 (Return: 4.57)
Mkt filter 3/4 Odds: 0.33 0.33 0.91 (Return: 4.57)

Total Out = 25 Total return (raw) = 16.71
Total wins: 7 / 25
List of winners:
Che 16:00:00 Shouldavbeenmore (FR) 2.63
Che 17:00:00 Chocolate Box (IRE) 4.5
Che 17:30:00 Above (FR) 2.63
Kem 12:40:00 Call Of The Wild (IRE) 1.33
Lud 12:50:00 Stream Of Stars 1.33
Kem 13:50:00 My Sister Sarah (IRE) 1.91
Ayr 14:10:00 Dreams Of Home (IRE) 2.38

Well, a few winners - sadly at lousy odds.

Today's pick won at 13/8, he didn't really cover himself in glory but he was in front at the post and that's the main thing.

No picks tomorrow.

Dave
 

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