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Early days

davejb

Mare
Report for : 12/09/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 5/23 Odds: 6.5 3.33 1.63 5.0 5.0 (Return: 26.46)
Mkt filter 4/10 Odds: 6.5 1.63 5.0 5.0 (Return: 22.13)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/12 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 35 Total return (raw) = 26.46
Total wins: 5 / 35
List of winners:
Che 13:35:00 Fox Leicester (IRE) 7.5
Che 15:10:00 Prospect 4.33
Che 15:45:00 Boomshalaa 2.63
Bat 16:30:00 Merlins Beard 6.0
Hay 18:00:00 Turandot (IRE) 6.0

bah,
still no picks either.

Time to walk the dog, whose vet visit became a long wait for nothing conclusive - the Vet, of course, still managed to charge us £100 for a tube of 'probiotic' paste - basically a paste that he likes the taste of that is meant to do what all those Yakult type drinks do - and some antibiotics in case he has picked up a bug. As we first took him to see the vet almost 3 months ago and he has happily eaten two tubes of this paste already, I am skeptical in the extreme so it looks like we'll be trying a different vet in a few days time unless there's a noticeable improvement. He's a lovely dog so I hope this doesn't go on for another 3 months.

Dave
 

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  • 14-sep.xlsx
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Outlander

Gelding
Report for : 12/09/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 5/23 Odds: 6.5 3.33 1.63 5.0 5.0 (Return: 26.46)
Mkt filter 4/10 Odds: 6.5 1.63 5.0 5.0 (Return: 22.13)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/12 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 35 Total return (raw) = 26.46
Total wins: 5 / 35
List of winners:
Che 13:35:00 Fox Leicester (IRE) 7.5
Che 15:10:00 Prospect 4.33
Che 15:45:00 Boomshalaa 2.63
Bat 16:30:00 Merlins Beard 6.0
Hay 18:00:00 Turandot (IRE) 6.0

bah,
still no picks either.

Time to walk the dog, whose vet visit became a long wait for nothing conclusive - the Vet, of course, still managed to charge us £100 for a tube of 'probiotic' paste - basically a paste that he likes the taste of that is meant to do what all those Yakult type drinks do - and some antibiotics in case he has picked up a bug. As we first took him to see the vet almost 3 months ago and he has happily eaten two tubes of this paste already, I am skeptical in the extreme so it looks like we'll be trying a different vet in a few days time unless there's a noticeable improvement. He's a lovely dog so I hope this doesn't go on for another 3 months.

Dave
My stepson bought a puppy early this year a lovely Black Labrador , he brought the dog round when he visited and my wife and myself thought she was a bit lame and uncomfortable at times, took her to the vet and turns out she is one of these dogs where the hip sockets/joints don’t hold the hind legs in place properly , I’m sure there is a proper term but I can’t remember.
Anyway the point I’m getting to is about the vets, son took her there and after consult , then referred to expert then X-rays etc , turns out she needs some operation on both hips where they screw or cement an artificial socket so the joint can fit into it properly. When he got the dog he took out insurance and was talked into a higher level more costly insurance and what a godsend.
The dog has now had successful surgery on one leg, the policy has a maximum claim per annum of £7000, and when he got the bills he had to add some of his own money because £7000 wasn’t quite enough and remember that is one leg.
He will have to wait for next year before he can claim another £7000 for the other leg. Just unbelievable amounts of money.

Hope your dog recovers soon Dave
 
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davejb

Mare
O Outlander yes, nightmare stuff - the problem with ours would be that we only got him 18 months or so back when he was about 9, so you can forget about insurance. His owner was a neighbour who became very ill, we looked after the dog for a couple of weeks while he was in and out of hospital as his wife is an invalid and couldn't look after the dog herself. Sadly the owner died, and his family asked us to keep him - as the other alternative was a dogs' home where he'd have sod all chance of being picked by another owner we kept him with us. He's okay today at least, the antibiotic seems to have stopped the problem, at least temporarily, unfortunately the paste stuff managed to do that originally as well - the test will be whether he's alright still a week after the pills stop.

To be fair I quite envy him the care, first off you get a doctor within hours of needing one, he definitely gets well fed and has his choice of a number of comfortable places to stretch out for a kip, and two adults running round after him on demand. If he could get the hang of computer games I'd buy him a laptop - but he finds the mouse a bit fiddly and would much prefer a real one.
 

Outlander

Gelding
O Outlander yes, nightmare stuff - the problem with ours would be that we only got him 18 months or so back when he was about 9, so you can forget about insurance. His owner was a neighbour who became very ill, we looked after the dog for a couple of weeks while he was in and out of hospital as his wife is an invalid and couldn't look after the dog herself. Sadly the owner died, and his family asked us to keep him - as the other alternative was a dogs' home where he'd have sod all chance of being picked by another owner we kept him with us. He's okay today at least, the antibiotic seems to have stopped the problem, at least temporarily, unfortunately the paste stuff managed to do that originally as well - the test will be whether he's alright still a week after the pills stop.

To be fair I quite envy him the care, first off you get a doctor within hours of needing one, he definitely gets well fed and has his choice of a number of comfortable places to stretch out for a kip, and two adults running round after him on demand. If he could get the hang of computer games I'd buy him a laptop - but he finds the mouse a bit fiddly and would much prefer a real one.
Yes pets have it good Dave, we never had a pet in 20 years in my house , my wife got my son a kitten for Christmas last year, her life is one of extreme luxury as far as I’m concerned, never pays a bill, always well fed, various comfortable places to just laze around all day with no chores to worry about, all she has to do is come up to any of us in the house and genuflect to signal she wants attention and instantly get massaged whenever she wants. I think on balance I would happily come back as a pet.
 

davejb

Mare
Report for : 13/09/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 6/14 Odds: 2.0 1.63 10.0 1.75 4.5 4.0 (Return: 29.88)
Mkt filter 5/11 Odds: 1.63 10.0 1.75 4.5 4.0 (Return: 26.88)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/10 Odds: 2.0 7.0 1.75 (Return: 13.75)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 2.0 (Return: 3.0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/5 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 30 Total return (raw) = 43.63
Total wins: 9 / 30
List of winners:
Bri 14:10:00 Mamillius 3.0
Bri 14:40:00 Zain Nibras (IRE) 3.0
Bri 15:15:00 Summer Valley 2.63
Thi 16:15:00 Irreverent 11.0
Bri 16:25:00 Discomatic (IRE) 2.75
Bri 17:00:00 Incorrigible 5.5
Kem 17:15:00 Adaaydreambeliever 8.0
Kem 18:15:00 Lil Guff 2.75
Kem 19:45:00 Diamond Bay 5.0

Oooh, that was good, for a change.

No picks again.

Well, the chocolates haven't arrived, and an email from our daughter shows that HER chocolates for her mum haven't arrived either - DPD where are you? There is a very very good chance that my wife will be getting a kilo of Lindt truffles from me, and another box of the same from her daughter - so she's in line for 1.75 - 2 kg of the things. Good job she likes them, isn't it?

We're just back from her birthday dinner at the Greek place, she ordered lamb chops and mash and got a huge plate full with 4 big chops on it. You can probably guess who had to stick the 4th lamb chop in his pocket (wrapped in a dog poo plastic bag no less) when she struggled with number three. I also had to finish her wine off, which was less of a burden. I had a beef dish, and as neither of us could face pud I got myself a Baklava type dessert to take away, my wife prefers a cornetto from the freezer. The dog. feeling better - we'll see how he is in a week or so when the pills stop - went into a sniffing frenzy when we returned, he has a long nose according to my wife, I tell her it is aristocratic, and he is very good at detecting food with it.

She liked the birthday card, I am attaching the front page of it for those who would like to see it. I blames the spelling on the dog, as it was a joint effort, I did say it was more a case of him finding it difficult to use the mouse and keyboard properly.

Dave
 

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davejb davejb

Just curious, what speed figure did you have for Native Trail's win in the National Stakes at the Curragh on Sunday?

The going description on the day was GOOD (Good to Firm in places on the round course), so you would be looking at a going allowance on the fast side of good, I had +0.14s/f (good).

Now here is the problem I am having, did the RPR handicapper have a bad case of brain farts awarding Native Trail a rating of 122, he only gave Sonnyboyliston impressive winner of a true run Irish St. Ledger a rating of only 121, do you see where I am going with this?

Top Speed is expected to produce speed figures in line with the RPR's on the big races, I thought at the time how will he achieve this, no problem he had the sprint course at -0.27s/f (Good to Soft), I have seen some creative accountancy with his speed figures but this beggars belief.

I watched the race and the pace was nothing special and Native Trail earned a speed figure of only 54, which is just average, using his going allowance I would have ended up with a figure of 81.

Food for thought, can a 2yo have a higher RPR rating than a 3yo Group 1 winner?

Mike.
 
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davejb

Mare
I got 74 for it Mike, TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother
Sonnyboyliston 119

That ties in with your calculations as you do that +20 business with higher grade meetings, while I don't, which boosts my ratings for these events. Even with that difference, I have no clue how Native Trail could be rated on anything like a par with Sonnyboyliston at this stage of his career.

My allowance was -0.11 s/f, firm side of good.
Dave
 

davejb

Mare
Report for : 14/09/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/12 Odds: 2.0 (Return: 3.0)
Mkt filter 1/7 Odds: 2.0 (Return: 3.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/12 Odds: 0.5 1.38 0.67 1.25 (Return: 7.8)
Mkt filter 3/6 Odds: 0.5 1.38 0.67 (Return: 5.55)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/2 Odds: 1.5 (Return: 2.5)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 1.5 (Return: 2.5)

Total Out = 30 Total return (raw) = 13.3
Total wins: 6 / 30
List of winners:
Yar 13:50:00 My Little Tip (IRE) 1.5
Yar 15:25:00 Secret Handsheikh 2.38
Pun 15:33:00 Champion Green (IRE) 1.67
Yar 16:00:00 Papa Stour (USA) 3.0
Wol 18:20:00 Astaroth 2.25
Fon 14:35:00 Swaffham Bulbeck (IRE) 2.5

Back down in the mire!
No picks, again. Never mind, NH is coming.

Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
Report for : 15/09/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/10 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/8 Odds: 1.25 2.25 2.0 (Return: 8.5)
Mkt filter 2/4 Odds: 1.25 2.0 (Return: 5.25)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/10 Odds: 5.5 2.5 (Return: 10.0)
Mkt filter 2/5 Odds: 5.5 2.5 (Return: 10.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/7 Odds: 0.4 (Return: 1.4)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 0.4 (Return: 1.4)

Total Out = 35 Total return (raw) = 19.9
Total wins: 6 / 35
List of winners:
Bev 13:00:00 Lady Raeburn (IRE) 2.25
Bev 13:30:00 Bay Breeze 3.25
Yar 13:40:00 Millennial Moon 3.0
Kel 16:00:00 Zafar (GER) 1.4
Sli 16:50:00 Father Jed (IRE) 6.5
Kel 18:00:00 Authorizo (FR) 3.5

Bleurgh. (I think I got that sound effect from Viz).

What's this - picks?

1631818103381.png

Now the annoying bit - the first is 2nd fav to a well odds on fav in a 4 runner novice hurdle, so quite risky. The second is the slightly odds on fav in a mare's novice hurdle, while the final one is currently 1/25 fav for a 4 runner novice chase.... so 3 not very attractive propositions unless you like buying money.

Frustrating this waiting for the jumps proper.

Dave

ps - my forecast was correct, my wife got two almost identical boxes of assorted truffles (assorted as in 'no mint, none of those fruit ones, none of the nutty ones or dark chocolate eithers' ) - this still left about a dozen different types to choose from. Not only did she end up with 2 one kilo boxes with identical birthday cards attached, but they each had a free sample box of half a dozen 'extra chocolate' truffles to try out, one of which got eaten yesterday evening.
Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
Report for : 16/09/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 5/28 Odds: 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.38 7.5 (Return: 20.88)
Mkt filter 5/15 Odds: 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.38 7.5 (Return: 20.88)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/11 Odds: 2.25 1.0 (Return: 5.25)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 2.25 (Return: 3.25)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 39 Total return (raw) = 26.13
Total wins: 7 / 39
List of winners:
Naa 13:25:00 Sablonne 3.25
Naa 14:00:00 Nero Tulip 2.0
Pon 17:10:00 Perfect Swiss 4.0
Che 17:30:00 Heath Rise 3.0
Ayr 17:50:00 Eclipse De Lunar (IRE) 3.0
Che 18:30:00 Chocoya 2.38
Che 20:00:00 Jenson Benson (IRE) 8.5

Nothing to write home about.

As for the picks - the first one ran 2nd, which was pretty much as expected so no drama. She's A Novelty got well beaten into 2nd at evens, and Eglantine Du Seuil jumped like a drunk, blundered around the track, and finished lame.... that's a 1/12 favourite for you! Not a bother as I didn't back any of them, they didn't look backable last night so I didn't bother - in fact I forgot all about them until 5 minutes back. Oh well.

None for tomorrow, but you'd be better off with using a pin to pick them anyway....

Nothing exciting on this weekend really, so I bought my wife a late birthday present (she doesn't know yet) of another share in a racehorse for £57, so that'll be a bit of the tail probably. For me I bought a blood pressure monitor from Amazon, which I will play with when it arrives. My BP is well down on what it used to be while I still worked (especially in teaching) so why the GPs seem so intent on driving it ever lower I can't really fathom, unless it's some sort of bet for trying to get one of their patients down to 0 over 0 by Christmas, just for the hell of it.

Dave
Dave
 

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