• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a 20% discount on Inform Racing.
    Simply enter the coupon code ukbettingform when subscribing here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Inform Racing so help is always available if needed.
    Best Wishes
    AR
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR
  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Early days

davejb

Mare
Report for : 29/08/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/14 Odds: 1.63 (Return: 2.63)
Mkt filter 1/7 Odds: 1.63 (Return: 2.63)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/7 Odds: 0.3 1.5 (Return: 3.8)
Mkt filter 2/6 Odds: 0.3 1.5 (Return: 3.8)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 21 Total return (raw) = 6.43
Total wins: 3 / 21
List of winners:
Yar 13:30:00 Mystic Dragon 2.63
Yar 14:40:00 Find 1.3
Yar 15:15:00 Banshee (IRE) 2.5

Not really worth all the extra efffort, was it?
Ho hum, no picks.

Had to fight the laptop to get it to finally turn on, we'll see how long I can keep this going!
Dave
 

Attachments

  • 31_aug.xlsx
    49.1 KB · Views: 0

davejb

Mare
Report for : 30/08/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 6/22 Odds: 6.0 10.0 6.5 1.75 0.91 2.25 (Return: 33.41)
Mkt filter 5/14 Odds: 6.0 10.0 1.75 0.91 2.25 (Return: 25.91)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/10 Odds: 2.25 1.5 (Return: 5.75)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/8 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/5 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 45 Total return (raw) = 39.16
Total wins: 8 / 45
List of winners:
Rip 14:30:00 Howzer Black (IRE) 7.0
Che 14:50:00 Swissal (IRE) 11.0
Eps 15:10:00 Firepower (FR) 7.5
Che 16:00:00 Thunder Lily (IRE) 2.75
Ros 16:10:00 Corviglia (USA) 3.25
Rip 16:15:00 Pride Of Priory 2.5
Wol 16:25:00 Wadacre Gogo 1.91
Ros 17:10:00 Chavajod 3.25

Keeping it going by plugging into the mains and using the sleep option, so here's hoping this keeps working! No picks again, Scotland is still here - very much more emphasis on masks and keeping distances etc in most places, the hotel has not got a lot of atmosphere as a consequence! I am looking forward to being back home already....

Dave
 

Attachments

  • 01-sep.xlsx
    69.4 KB · Views: 0

davejb

Mare
Report for : 31/08/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/10 Odds: 2.75 5.5 1.0 (Return: 12.25)
Mkt filter 3/7 Odds: 2.75 5.5 1.0 (Return: 12.25)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/5 Odds: 0.8 (Return: 1.8)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 0.8 (Return: 1.8)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/12 Odds: 1.25 2.25 (Return: 5.5)
Mkt filter 2/8 Odds: 1.25 2.25 (Return: 5.5)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/2 Odds: 0.25 0.83 (Return: 3.08)
Mkt filter 2/2 Odds: 0.25 0.83 (Return: 3.08)

Total Out = 29 Total return (raw) = 22.63
Total wins: 8 / 29
List of winners:
Eps 14:15:00 New Mission 1.8
Eps 14:50:00 Recon Mission (IRE) 3.75
Rip 15:05:00 Wades Magic 6.5
Eps 16:00:00 Hey Teacher 2.0
New 16:25:00 Beholden 1.25
Hex 16:45:00 Kensington Art 1.83
Hex 18:15:00 No No Maestro (IRE) 2.25
Hex 19:45:00 Abington Park 3.25

Another day another 67 c....

Tomorrow there's a pick! Unfortunately currently a 1/2 favourite in a novice hurdle, so almost certainly not worth betting on unless you are on the inside track at the stable - in which case you didn't need me to pick it for you :)

1630528282063.png


Dave
 

Attachments

  • 1630528386803.png
    1630528386803.png
    4.2 KB · Views: 0
  • 02-sep.xlsx
    76 KB · Views: 0

davejb

Mare
Report for : 01/09/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 4/17 Odds: 0.73 2.25 2.0 1.25 (Return: 10.23)
Mkt filter 2/7 Odds: 0.73 2.25 (Return: 4.98)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/12 Odds: 2.5 2.5 2.5 0.67 (Return: 12.17)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 0.67 (Return: 1.67)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 4/10 Odds: 25.0 1.25 3.5 2.5 (Return: 36.25)
Mkt filter 2/7 Odds: 3.5 2.5 (Return: 8.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/4 Odds: 3.5 (Return: 4.5)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 43 Total return (raw) = 63.15
Total wins: 13 / 43
List of winners:
Gow 13:35:00 Cornman (IRE) 3.5
Bat 14:10:00 Chipstead 1.73
Lin 14:30:00 Sassy Rascal (IRE) 3.5
Bat 14:40:00 Goldenhurst 3.5
Bat 16:45:00 Reams Of Love 3.25
Ham 18:50:00 Forza Orta (IRE) 1.67
Ham 19:20:00 International Girl (IRE) 3.0
Ham 19:50:00 Temper Trap 2.25
Utt 13:50:00 Uno Mas 26.0
Utt 15:20:00 Vision Des Flos (FR) 2.25
Utt 15:50:00 Goldencard (IRE) 4.5
Wor 16:30:00 Admirals Sunset 3.5
Wor 17:35:00 Solway Molly 4.5

A good day.

Today's pick had a real battle and came off second best by a neck at 4/9 - at that price I didn't bet of course, as I said last night. Odds like that are of limited appeal at the best of times, and if it's a novice race or there are unexposed types in a race there's always a chance of a nasty surprise, The horse didn't run badly mind, just not quite fast enough to get there first.

No picks tomorrow.

Right, returning home tomorrow after our brief stay up here in the distant north east, I will have to do my morning work before I can do the evening routine so don't expect anything here until later on.
It'll be a relief to get back onto my desktop,,,,,,,
dave
 

Attachments

  • 03-sep.xlsx
    87.4 KB · Views: 0

davejb

Mare
Report for : 02/09/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/28 Odds: 4.5 11.0 (Return: 17.5)
Mkt filter 1/12 Odds: 4.5 (Return: 5.5)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 7/15 Odds: 1.0 2.75 2.75 0.5 0.4 1.75 0.03 (Return: 16.18)
Mkt filter 6/9 Odds: 1.0 2.75 0.5 0.4 1.75 0.03 (Return: 12.43)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 49 Total return (raw) = 33.68
Total wins: 9 / 49
List of winners:
Sal 13:30:00 Outbreak 2.0
Hay 14:45:00 Laheg (FR) 3.75
Dun 15:00:00 Sister Lola (IRE) 3.75
Hay 15:15:00 New Kingdom 1.5
Hay 15:45:00 Al Suhail 1.4
Clo 16:15:00 Shahaada (IRE) 2.75
Clo 17:15:00 Shes Good Company (IRE) 5.5
New 19:05:00 Delgrey Boy 12.0
Che 19:25:00 Valiant Prince (IRE) 1.03

Wasn't worth waiting for, was it? There is a pick for tomorrow:

1630699449245.png

I bet you all wish you could write programs for the PC that could delve so deeply into form and speed to find hidden gems like this 8/13 favourite, who probably hasn't been spotted as a good thing by anyone else on the planet, eh? On the other hand, it might be that my program needn't have bothered to highlight this on.

One thing I will just point out is that this runner is very much like the last one, he's hot favourite for good reason - he's won 3 on the trot now, and has generally looked a good thing over fences, either won or come second every outing this year, and Donald Mc Cain has been happily snaffling class 4 then class 3 novice events with the horse - a good few of them in smaller fields. His only real threat looks to be Nicky Henderson's Hooper, who has been winning handicap hurdles at class 2 and is now being sent chasing..... under a 7lb claimer with 0-2 for chases in his logbook so far. I'm pretty sure Presentandcounting's jockey, Brian Hughes, will have the edge in experience somehow, but on the other hand adding that 7lb claim to the 10lb Hooper is already getting from the favourite and there is an opportunity there for an upset.

The pick gets the vote, he has shown he has taken to fences like a duck to water, but I wouldn't back him any shorter than about 4/6 simply because I think Hooper has ability and it only takes one mistake somewhere in the last few furlongs to allow an upset. Hooper is the only danger that I can see, the other pair haven't a hope in hell - especially Game In The Park - but will doubtless pick up a few bob for completing the course, so turning up here will help pay the bills.... a motive not to be sniffed at!

Putting my racehorse owner's hat on for a minute, after all I own three hairs on Glynn's nose and one of Asdaa's eyelashes, I have been perusing the 5.15 at Haydock tomorrow, the class 4 mile handicap that closes the card for the day. Now unfortunately, having just got back home this evening and finally got life back onto an even keel, my wife has a scan to look forward to tomorrow, having been phoned by the hospital with a no notice appointment, all whilst taking her ease in the sumptuous largely repaired and almost watertight bothy I managed to get the padlock off for a stay in the frozen north east.

If we were not otherwise booked I could have applied for an owners' badge and gone to see Asdaa run in this race, if successful I could then have winked at Mark Johnston and Franny Norton, and muttered my deeply held suspicion that he is running at Haydock with the express purpose of getting his handicap rating a few lbs lower. I've long contended he is better on the AW, and his win in a class 5 at Musselburgh came as a slight surprise (to everyone concerned, I suspect) - now going for this pot of 7400 or so quid is double the target, and if he brings it off that'd be fantastic, especially as he's 9lb worse off and the run in is over 4f, his wins seem to usually involve him coming off a bend, getting a few yards jump on the rest, and hanging on to the line - a gallop from half way, down a straight half mile plus, doesn't look to be playing to his limited strengths. I think the view is probably 'a third run down the field might get him back down 2 or 3 lbs (to where he last won from) and some sort of fluke win will be worth double what he usually gets when he manages to hold on in front'.

I'd have an EW bet on him, a very very small one, just out of a sense of loyalty (a bad reason to bet, but it's my 50p!) Unfortunately I can't help thinking it'll be either a bolt from the blue fluke win, which is highly unlikely, or an attempt to get to the front from the 2f point or thereabouts, probably to peter out a bit as several go past him and keep him out of the frame. I'll be thrilled by the fluke win though.... a class 4 0-80 handicap at the end of the card isn't much to cheer about if you are part of the Coolmore empire, but it's a case of realistic expectations - he's a lowish grade handicapper, one who has managed a mile a few times which gives him more race targets than when he was showing himself to be a 7f contender, he is not going to do more than pick up a class 4 or 5 handicap every so often. Compared to most of the horses that get into training this is actually pretty good!

Enjoy your weekend.
Dave
 

Attachments

  • 04-sep.xlsx
    101.3 KB · Views: 1

davejb

Mare
Report for : 03/09/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 9/27 Odds: 2.25 1.5 3.5 5.0 3.0 11.0 1.75 1.38 1.5 (Return: 39.88)
Mkt filter 8/17 Odds: 2.25 3.5 5.0 3.0 11.0 1.75 1.38 1.5 (Return: 37.38)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/18 Odds: 4.5 1.25 (Return: 7.75)
Mkt filter 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/4 Odds: 5.0 (Return: 6.0)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 5.0 (Return: 6.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/5 Odds: 1.88 (Return: 2.88)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 1.88 (Return: 2.88)

Total Out = 54 Total return (raw) = 56.51
Total wins: 13 / 54
List of winners:
New 13:00:00 Peerless Percy (IRE) 3.25
Hay 13:10:00 Fairmac 2.5
Dow 15:45:00 Pearl Palinka (IRE) 5.5
Dow 17:22:00 Mumayaz (IRE) 4.5
Dow 17:52:00 Anyonecanhaveitall 6.0
Dow 18:22:00 Silent Performance (IRE) 4.0
Kem 18:45:00 Altraif 2.25
Dow 19:22:00 Trump Card (IRE) 12.0
Pon 19:30:00 King Of Stars (IRE) 2.75
Kem 19:45:00 Saatty (IRE) 2.38
Kem 20:45:00 Geremia (IRE) 2.5
Kil 18:07:00 Game Catch (IRE) 6.0
Kil 19:37:00 Watergrange Jack (IRE) 2.88

Just scraped over the bar that time.
No picks tomorrow.

Today's pick duly won - but Hooper was going to win right up to the point that his jockey got ejected at the last fence. The other pair were duly well beaten, but picked up £3500 and £1900 approx for turning up, so good for them. Hard luck on Hooper's jockey, Ben Ffrench Davies who was about to win his first chase (he's won 3 over hurdles in something like 34 races ridden), perhaps a more experienced jockey might have managed to stay aboard but I wouldn't like to bet on that.... he rather shot up into the air as the horse didn't jump the last cleanly, I know almost nothing about riding horses so have no idea if he did something wrong or was just really unlucky... but I'm guessing the latter. The end result was an 8/11 somewhat lucky win, but it helps balance the unlucky losses doesn't it? To be honest it also reinforces my thoughts on these novice event favourites, you've got to be darn sure nothing is hiding in the rest of the field to cause an upset, it's far too easy to think odds on means a good thing.

Asdaa shot from the gate like a startled rabbit, led up to about 100 yds out, then got overtaken by a couple of faster finishers to finish third, although he only lost second by a head (annoyingly, as it was £3500 for second and £1750 for third - so if he'd kept second he'd have done about as well as if he'd won on the AW). It was a darn good run, Joe Fanning does a really good job on him, I just hope this isn't going to push his rating higher.... I suspect hopes of it falling are disappearing. At 14/1 he was a decent EW bet as well, although not one to tempt a major plunge! (You know, 50p EW, possibly even a pound).

With career earnings of 45 grand he isn't covering the costs of course, but it's a decent sum compared to what many horses manage - you definitely need to view horse ownership as being a hobby that is quite expensive and seldom, if ever, repays the investment. The various £50 a year type of syndicate gives a fair amount of fun for a fixed, small annual fee, it's the only way to get a taste of the game for us non millionaires.

They're flying loads of big kites on the beach, there's a couple of small kiddy rides on the sand, various food wagons on the prom (plus a horse box converted to a gin and prosecco wagon, and a setup flogging alcoholic ice lollies). My wife liked looking at it all, I shared the dog's bewilderment to an extent - to him it was just a case of 'why are all these humans banging around the joint', for myself I couldn't help wonder what the attraction was - a bunch of big kites, many animal shaped (dragon, octopus, and so on) sat at the end of their strings, largely motionless, while lots of folk stared at them. Wouldn't you get a similar effect from just sticking a few posters up and staring at them? It seems a lot of work to go to for a display that doesn't do very much..... still, it seemed to amuse folk enough that the seafront is heaving, traffic parked all along the prom and beyond, and the usual run of banged wings and doors when people decide they really need to turn into some side road while the guy behind is looking anywhere but at the road ahead. As I said above, it's all Sea Monkeys!

Dave
 

Attachments

  • 05-sep.xlsx
    34.6 KB · Views: 2

davejb

Mare
Report for : 04/09/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/26 Odds: 8.5 5.0 7.5 (Return: 24.0)
Mkt filter 2/11 Odds: 8.5 5.0 (Return: 15.5)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/16 Odds: 0.91 1.0 (Return: 3.91)
Mkt filter 1/6 Odds: 1.0 (Return: 2.0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/8 Odds: 0.62 (Return: 1.62)
Mkt filter 1/4 Odds: 0.62 (Return: 1.62)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/7 Odds: 14.0 0.73 3.33 (Return: 21.06)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 3.33 (Return: 4.33)

Total Out = 57 Total return (raw) = 50.59
Total wins: 9 / 57
List of winners:
Nav 15:00:00 Speedacus (IRE) 9.5
Asc 15:45:00 Top Secret 6.0
Hay 17:15:00 Sucellus 8.5
Wol 18:00:00 Old Flame 1.91
Wol 18:30:00 Loves Me Likearock 2.0
Wex 13:05:00 Barnacullia (IRE) 15.0
Str 13:55:00 Presentandcounting (IRE) 1.73
Str 15:40:00 Hang In There (IRE) 1.62
Str 16:50:00 Strensham Court 4.33

No pick today, but there are two for tomorrow:

1630864513193.png

The above pair are both odds on, so continuing the tradition of spotting the obvious rather, but they also both look quite likely to win.

Dave
 

Attachments

  • 06-sep.xlsx
    67 KB · Views: 0

davejb

Mare
Report for : 05/09/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/2 Odds: 2.25 (Return: 3.25)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 2.25 (Return: 3.25)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/9 Odds: 2.25 0.67 1.25 (Return: 7.17)
Mkt filter 2/7 Odds: 0.67 1.25 (Return: 3.92)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 19 Total return (raw) = 10.42
Total wins: 4 / 19
List of winners:
Yor 15:45:00 Mistrix (IRE) 3.25
Fon 14:00:00 Vorashann (FR) 3.25
Per 14:20:00 Minella Trump (IRE) 1.67
Fon 15:35:00 Josie Abbing (IRE) 2.25

Pshaw, and other victorian sounding notes of disgust.

A small confession, I clean forgot to back either of the picks, simply because I expected them both to be really short priced - as and when the jumps gets properly under way and the jumps picks are coming up regularly then I'll be a bit more enthusiastic about it all, but 4/6 on a novice chaser and the like doesn't thrill me with anticipation. As these bets are so small anyway it doesn't really matter, but I prefer not to lose even if it is a paltry amount, (or should that be poultry, given the miniscule risk I am running with these chicken hearted bets?) I'm going off gambling, I suspect, I like watching good racing but I don't really mind if I've had a bet on it or not - when I'm actually at a meeting it's different, I kind of see having a bet as being part of the full experience - does that even make sense? Never mind...

Today's pair started with Rich Belief, who started second favourite as I discovered, and got beaten by the 10/11 actual favourite. From the in running comment the 1/2 length beaten distance doesn't reflect the ease with which the winner won the race. In Galway Jazzaway didn't jump well, and was clearly having a less than great time of things - the race comment says it looks like the horse went wrong (from the Racing Post results), which is very sad of course - I can't find anything on the HRI site about this, just the bare result of P.U., when anything like that happens I like to find out how it all turned out, in the hope the horse recovers..... a few of my favourites have died on the racetrack over the past few years and I like to know what happens with any that are injured, rather than just wonder about them for evermore.

None for tomorrow - probably just as well, given the way things are going lately.

Dave
 

Attachments

  • 07-sep.xlsx
    68.3 KB · Views: 0

davejb

Mare
Report for : 06/09/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/10 Odds: 1.5 1.63 (Return: 5.13)
Mkt filter 1/7 Odds: 1.63 (Return: 2.63)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/5 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/12 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/7 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/8 Odds: 0.67 3.0 2.75 (Return: 9.42)
Mkt filter 2/5 Odds: 0.67 2.75 (Return: 5.42)

Total Out = 35 Total return (raw) = 14.55
Total wins: 5 / 35
List of winners:
Bri 15:30:00 Toronado Grey 2.5
New 17:25:00 Haveyoumissedme 2.63
New 14:10:00 Kilmington Rose (IRE) 1.67
Gal 16:05:00 Hammersmith (IRE) 4.0
Per 16:25:00 Renegade Arrow (FR) 3.75

Pffft.
No picks today, none for tomorrow.

Boring!
Dave
 

Attachments

  • 08-sep.xlsx
    75.5 KB · Views: 0

davejb

Mare
Report for : 07/09/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/20 Odds: 3.0 5.0 (Return: 10.0)
Mkt filter 1/8 Odds: 3.0 (Return: 4.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 6/19 Odds: 0.83 1.63 0.67 2.75 0.18 0.91 (Return: 12.97)
Mkt filter 5/9 Odds: 0.83 1.63 0.67 0.18 0.91 (Return: 9.22)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 39 Total return (raw) = 22.97
Total wins: 8 / 39
List of winners:
Lei 13:10:00 Cotai Hero (IRE) 1.83
Lei 13:40:00 Invigilate 2.63
Cat 14:05:00 Rebel Redemption 4.0
Lei 15:20:00 Roulston Scar (IRE) 1.67
Win 16:45:00 Locke (IRE) 3.75
Goo 17:07:00 King Vega 1.18
Gal 18:00:00 Dragon Of Malta (IRE) 6.0
Win 18:15:00 Flaunt (IRE) 1.91

I can only presume there's going to be a massive day any moment now....any moment.....

No picks again.

Tomorrow at Doncaster, at a quick glance, the 2.10 looks pretty likely to be fun - 21 2yo's all chasing a 98 grand first prize! I won't look any further than Ever Given for this, but wouldn't dream of betting on him... 21 2yo's is probably as close to mayhem as you can program.
Think I'll wait for the Doncaster Cup, where I shall support Stradivarius again - I know he's not quite as good as he was, and on his day Trueshan can run a damn good race, but to me Strad is still the better horse.

Dave
 

Attachments

  • 09-sep.xlsx
    55.8 KB · Views: 0

davejb

Mare
Report for : 08/09/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/15 Odds: 1.63 1.88 (Return: 5.51)
Mkt filter 2/11 Odds: 1.63 1.88 (Return: 5.51)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/15 Odds: 2.75 0.67 (Return: 5.42)
Mkt filter 1/5 Odds: 2.75 (Return: 3.75)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/7 Odds: 2.5 0.44 (Return: 4.94)
Mkt filter 2/6 Odds: 2.5 0.44 (Return: 4.94)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 38 Total return (raw) = 15.87
Total wins: 6 / 38
List of winners:
Don 15:25:00 Just Beautiful 3.75
Car 15:50:00 Epic Endeavour (IRE) 2.63
Car 17:25:00 Hello Zabeel (IRE) 1.67
Wol 19:50:00 Invincible Soldier (IRE) 2.88
Utt 13:30:00 Espinator (FR) 3.5
Utt 16:40:00 Rock On Rocco (IRE) 1.44

....any moment I say....

There is a pick for tomorrow,

1631212625750.png

sorry to be so negative lately, but the only picks popping up on the jumps are all like this one - lightly raced, and up against a field of equally unknown opponents. The likely odds on favourite had a bit of a battle in his last race, swapping the lead with the eventual winner as they raced over the final 2f. Assuming Merlin Giant is okay after that experience then he's certainly worthy of winning this race or similar. Eco Pete, in contrast, won his last race (similar prize money to Merlin Giant's race and also today's race) well, getting to the front a furlong or two out then pulling clear. That race was over 3f further however, whilst Merlin Giant ran over a similar distance to today, so given Eco Pete ran on nicely over 3f further I can't help being concerned about the trip being a bit short for him - will he have the speed to take on MG? Eco Pete carries 7lb more than MG, which his 7lb claiming jockey will of course take off. The stables - well, it's 0 wins in 14 days versus 4 wins in 49 attempts - I shouldn't set much store by the stable win rates, and as the Mullins stable 0 is out of only 4 runs there's no evidence really that anything is amiss there.
I can see why Merlin Giant is likely to be favourite, I think Eco Pete has a chance, but I would not take short odds on him because I think he'll find MG a tough nut if he's okay after his last run.

Onto something a bit more easy, the Doncaster Cup, If Stradivarius is okay, then he wins. The thing here is that we're all sort of waiting for the spark to go out, at which point he is retired to stud. Clearly Trueshan is a significant danger if Stradivarius isn't up to his best, call him the most likely to take advantage of any lack of enthusiasm in the older horse, note that Trueshan is giving Strad 2lbs! I think this is one of Nayef Road's better chances for a well paid place, as he's a 5yo like Trueshan he ought to be about his peak, and Mark Johnston's horses seem to be going in left right and centre - a bit misleading, as the stable has sent out an awful lot of runners and the win percent is a respectable but not earth shaking 17% in actuality. Nayef Road would be a winner if you can imagine saying afterwards 'that was a bloody strange race wasn't it?' He does pick up prize money from placing though - he's won over a hundred grand, but has over 400k in actual earnings - coming 2nd and 3rd can pay off nicely if you aim high enough. I confess to being a fan of the horse, which means whenever I see him running I want to take advantage of the decent EW odds he seems to attract - 10/11 on Stradivarius looks quite good considering, if he's on form, he'll trounce them, 18/1 on Nayef Road looks like a nice EW possibility if he can avoid running out of puff in the final 2f....but he does have a bit of a habit of doing just that these days. Of course trueshan might come out if the ground is deemed too fast, which will change the race markedly should it happen - not to the extent that Stradivarius gets beaten, I wouldn't imagine.

I might well put my 50p on Stradivarius tomorrow, I think I'll skip Nayef Road but might revise that opinion if the odds stay nice.
Dave
 

Attachments

  • 10-sep.xlsx
    68.4 KB · Views: 1

davejb

Mare
Well,
I actually took 10/11 on Stradivarius last night, just a small bet - it's not the winning it's the taking part, as the saying goes. Trueshan has indeed come out, it was the going that persuaded me to bet last night rather than wait to today.... I really couldn't see that giving Stradivarius 2lb on good to firm going was an attractive proposition, after all there's bound to be a deluge and softer going sooner rather than later - better to wait until the going suits, although Trueshan is probably jumping out of his skin these days with not getting a run in.

Nayef Road is showing as 12/1, but then there'll only be 2 places and quarter the odds - a tiny EW there then - I figure he's good enough to take second behind Stradivarius (again) and if Strad decides today is the day to retire then the payout will be a bonus. Ideally it's Stradivarius first, Nayef Road second, and both pay out. (Of course we all know what the non-happy ever after version will look like....)

Anyway, let's see how things pan out!
Dave
 

davejb

Mare
Report for : 09/09/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 5/17 Odds: 10.0 0.8 1.63 3.33 7.0 (Return: 27.76)
Mkt filter 5/13 Odds: 10.0 0.8 1.63 3.33 7.0 (Return: 27.76)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/11 Odds: 1.25 1.0 (Return: 4.25)
Mkt filter 2/6 Odds: 1.25 1.0 (Return: 4.25)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 28 Total return (raw) = 32.01
Total wins: 7 / 28
List of winners:
Che 13:00:00 Alhezabr (IRE) 2.25
Eps 14:55:00 Berrahri (IRE) 11.0
Eps 15:55:00 Curtiz 1.8
Eps 17:00:00 Mercurius Power (IRE) 2.63
Che 17:30:00 Harb 2.0
Che 18:30:00 Eevilynn Drew 4.33
Che 20:30:00 Weardiditallgorong 8.0

When I said 'a massive day' I was, admittedly, thinking of rather more of a profit.... but every penny helps.

I thoroughly enjoyed Stradivarius' win today, I'll be quite surprised if he races as an 8 year old and have got to the stage of just trying to enjoy the chances I get to watch him. Nayef Road didn't run too badly, he picked up nearly 12k for third, which is more than I got for his not holding onto second of course! Alerta Roja picked up 23.6k for second, the 3yo was getting huge lumps of weight of course but still did well, I think, to place at this level over such a distance - Sir Mark Prescott's little gamble paid off pretty nicely there.

It feels like Saturday to me....has done all day. It's one of the things about retiring that my wife and I both really notice, days kind of run along without having anything much to distinguish one from another. It must be friday though, as tomorrow's the St Leger which I can't see Hurricane Lane losing. It's hard not to think the main event is actually going on at Leopardstown, where the Irish Champion stakes is just one of the big races on the card - 2 Gp1's, 2 Gp 2's, a Gp3 and a listed event all play out before the card ends on a pair of handicaps.

There are some darn good horses running, of course, and although only 4 line up for the Champion three of them are St Mark's Basilica, Poetic Flare, and not to be ignored Tarnawa who beat Magical (and a good few others) in the Breeders' Cup Turf at Keeneland. It's hard not to like the favourite, but with only 4 runners there could be an upset - all sorts of silly things happen with the pace in small fields. The 4th runner, Patrick Sarsfield, isn't a bad horse - just not up to the class of the other three - as long as he crosses the finish line he's going to make a good few quid regardless of his placing!

Have a good weekend.
Dave
 

Attachments

  • 11-sep.xlsx
    79.7 KB · Views: 1

davejb

Mare
Report for : 10/09/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/14 Odds: 2.0 (Return: 3.0)
Mkt filter 1/5 Odds: 2.0 (Return: 3.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/12 Odds: 0.25 1.63 6.5 (Return: 11.38)
Mkt filter 1/5 Odds: 0.25 (Return: 1.25)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/4 Odds: 2.25 (Return: 3.25)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 34 Total return (raw) = 17.63
Total wins: 5 / 34
List of winners:
San 14:00:00 Natasha 1.25
Che 14:20:00 Unspoken (IRE) 2.63
Don 16:20:00 Sea La Rosa (IRE) 3.0
Sal 17:15:00 Amber Dew 7.5
Bal 18:00:00 Ilikedwayurthinkin (IRE) 3.25

No picks for tomorrow.

Well it was nice to see things work out as expected, I shouldn't complain as I only had 3 bets all weekend, Stradivarius and Hurricane Lane to win, Nayef Road EW, so if Nayef Road had just managed second instead of third that'd have been quite good. As it was the two winners were at 10/11 and Evens, but a 30p Rule 4 on Strad turned 10/11 into about 3/5, Hurricane Lane was 10/11 but I had an odds boost... only a tiny extra bit at those odds of course, so that's 3 pts out (the EW being 1/2 pt EW) and 3.64 back - the celebrations have therefore been limited to ice cream and strawberries, with a can of beer in the fridge.

Being thrilled with how Amazon works down here, for example I ordered something at ten pm yesterday and it arrived at lunchtime today... when we lived in the frozen north it would have arrived Monday at best, more likely Tuesday. I order all sorts of stuff as it crosses our minds that we want it. (This, I ought to add, is not a steady diet of expensive doodads - my latest buys being some iced tea mix and a small alarm clock).

Unfortunately that means that now my wife's birthday is upon us almost I am devoid of ideas - she insists she wants nothing, and considering every time she mentions something she'd like I tend to buy it anyway. (Bear in mind tea iced tea and clock, we are not talking fashionable stuff or caviar.... it's more like Lucy Whatsit said of her husband John Richardson on 8 out of 10 cats - he takes her to B&M and offers to buy her 'any teatowel in the shop'). I got a reply to my online booking at a local restaurant she wanted to go to on the night - sorry, we're shut from 12th to 30th. Still, there are plenty of other places to go to, I've suggested a suitable alternative and now await her decision.

I'll probably chicken out with dinner out and some chocolate.

Dave
 

Attachments

  • 12-sep.xlsx
    72.9 KB · Views: 1

davejb

Mare
Report for : 11/09/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 6/26 Odds: 7.0 0.62 3.0 10.0 2.75 3.0 (Return: 32.37)
Mkt filter 3/12 Odds: 0.62 3.0 2.75 (Return: 9.37)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 5/19 Odds: 7.5 2.25 0.15 0.73 0.36 (Return: 15.99)
Mkt filter 4/10 Odds: 2.25 0.15 0.73 0.36 (Return: 7.49)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 45 Total return (raw) = 48.36
Total wins: 11 / 45
List of winners:
Don 13:15:00 Desert Angel (IRE) 8.5
Bat 13:35:00 Hyde Park Barracks (USA) 8.0
Bat 14:05:00 Mr Professor (IRE) 3.25
Bat 14:40:00 Choirmaster 1.15
Don 15:35:00 Hurricane Lane (IRE) 1.73
Lin 15:40:00 Fancy Man (IRE) 1.36
Bat 15:55:00 Tasfeeq 1.62
Che 16:25:00 Victory Chime (IRE) 4.0
Che 16:55:00 Emiyn (FR) 11.0
Lin 17:50:00 Vitalline 3.75
Lin 18:25:00 Aramis Grey (IRE) 4.0

A tiny bit better

No picks.

Well I went with chocolates - the meal out might be in jeopardy as our dog isn't very well. Hopefully we'll get a vet appointment tomorrow (rather easier than the NHS for humans) and we can get started on finding out what's up with the lad. DId you know Lindt have an online shop where you can buy your own chosen mixture of their Lindor truffles? I spent a happy 20 minutes going through their rather large list of flavours picking 100g of these, 100g of them.... I thought I'd best stop at a kilo, as it was starting to creep past my intended price point of 3 pounds fifty.
I will of course have to hep eat them, reluctantly agreeing to take the odd one - my wife is very good at eating these things, I think she must have been amateur champion truffle eater or something before we met.

Still, she's getting a big box of chocs, a home made card from the dog (I do it really, but I make it look like he did it by putting Happy Sausages on the front, he likes sausages) and a trip to Morrisons supermarket to do the weekly shop, so a meal out might be overdoing it a bit, we'll see.

Dave
 

Attachments

  • 13-sep.xlsx
    58.8 KB · Views: 3

pete

Dam
Speaking of chocolate. I used to LOVE the coffee cremes in the Christmas boxes of roses that every household used to have back in the day, so this year I specially ordered a box of goodies to be delivered direct from the UK. Advent calendars, Christmas pudding, custard, Christmas crackers and other good stuff that you can't find over here, and before completing the order, I thought I would treat myself to a tin of roses just so I could get a taste of coffee cremes ... Which apparently, they no longer have in the box. Grrrr.

Anyone know where I may procure such deliciousness?

(I also ordered a job-lot of Bournville, so all was not lost.)
 
Top