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  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

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  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
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Early days

davejb

Mare
Report for : 15/08/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/19 Odds: 8.0 11.0 (Return: 21.0)
Mkt filter 1/14 Odds: 8.0 (Return: 9.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/10 Odds: 3.33 0.67 2.25 1.38 (Return: 11.63)
Mkt filter 2/6 Odds: 0.67 1.38 (Return: 4.05)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 37 Total return (raw) = 32.63
Total wins: 6 / 37
List of winners:
Dun 13:30:00 Pride Of Pimlico (IRE) 9.0
Sou 13:35:00 Triple Jaye 4.33
Che 13:50:00 Saatty (IRE) 1.67
Pon 14:35:00 Dash Of Spice 12.0
Dun 14:40:00 Baldomero (IRE) 3.25
Pon 16:55:00 Alpha Cru (IRE) 2.38

Still a bit short then. Sadly today's pick, Zafar , was beaten (3/4l) into 2nd.
Nothing for tomorrow.

I'm a bit late 'cos we just went to see Benedict Cumberbatch in 'The Courier', the story of the British businessman Greville Wynne who couriered information for the Russian spy Oleg Penkovsky. Fairly close to the truth, it would appear - which means it is close to the version of reality that the world has settled on, as happens with most things in life - it's quite entertaining. Being badly behaved I did say to my wife at the end 'that's the worst Batman film you've brought me to yet, he wasn't in it once' as I like to confuse anybody overhearing. Tomorrow it's shopping at Morrisons - this retirement game is one thrill after another I tell you.

Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
Report for : 16/08/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/16 Odds: 2.0 16.0 (Return: 20.0)
Mkt filter 2/11 Odds: 2.0 16.0 (Return: 20.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/9 Odds: 0.22 1.2 (Return: 3.42)
Mkt filter 2/4 Odds: 0.22 1.2 (Return: 3.42)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/5 Odds: 4.5 (Return: 5.5)
Mkt filter 1/4 Odds: 4.5 (Return: 5.5)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 31 Total return (raw) = 28.92
Total wins: 5 / 31
List of winners:
Lin 13:30:00 Largo Bay (USA) 3.0
Cat 16:05:00 Nadein 1.22
Ros 17:15:00 Malayan (IRE) 2.2
Ros 19:45:00 Magnetic North (IRE) 17.0
Ban 18:35:00 Wishfull Dreaming 5.5

Still shooting for the crossbar.

Nae ony picks! We're going back to Forres, NE Scotland, for a few days in a fortnight or so, so I thought I'd start practising my vernacular.

Dave
 

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  • 18-august.xlsx
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markfinn

Sire
Report for : 16/08/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/16 Odds: 2.0 16.0 (Return: 20.0)
Mkt filter 2/11 Odds: 2.0 16.0 (Return: 20.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/9 Odds: 0.22 1.2 (Return: 3.42)
Mkt filter 2/4 Odds: 0.22 1.2 (Return: 3.42)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/5 Odds: 4.5 (Return: 5.5)
Mkt filter 1/4 Odds: 4.5 (Return: 5.5)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 31 Total return (raw) = 28.92
Total wins: 5 / 31
List of winners:
Lin 13:30:00 Largo Bay (USA) 3.0
Cat 16:05:00 Nadein 1.22
Ros 17:15:00 Malayan (IRE) 2.2
Ros 19:45:00 Magnetic North (IRE) 17.0
Ban 18:35:00 Wishfull Dreaming 5.5

Still shooting for the crossbar.

Nae ony picks! We're going back to Forres, NE Scotland, for a few days in a fortnight or so, so I thought I'd start practising my vernacular.

Dave
Aye laddie of to Dunbar myself not as far but same direction
 

davejb

Mare
Report for : 17/08/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/18 Odds: 2.25 1.38 2.5 (Return: 9.13)
Mkt filter 3/10 Odds: 2.25 1.38 2.5 (Return: 9.13)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/11 Odds: 2.75 0.8 (Return: 5.55)
Mkt filter 1/4 Odds: 0.8 (Return: 1.8)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/3 Odds: 14.0 (Return: 15.0)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 14.0 (Return: 15.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/3 Odds: 2.75 (Return: 3.75)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 35 Total return (raw) = 33.43
Total wins: 7 / 35
List of winners:
Ham 13:15:00 Ryans Party (IRE) 3.75
Ham 14:50:00 Line Of Descent (IRE) 1.8
Car 17:05:00 Motawaazy 3.25
Lei 18:25:00 Boogie Time (IRE) 2.38
Lei 18:55:00 Arqoob (IRE) 3.5
Sli 17:15:00 Mullins Cross (IRE) 15.0
Sli 17:45:00 Digby (IRE) 3.75

One of these days it's gonna be 35 out 34.99 back I reckon, somebody up there is just teasing me now.

No picks today, but...

1629311950037.png

for tomorrow.

Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
Report for : 18/08/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 4/17 Odds: 3.0 2.5 1.75 3.5 (Return: 14.75)
Mkt filter 3/10 Odds: 2.5 1.75 3.5 (Return: 10.75)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/8 Odds: 2.25 (Return: 3.25)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 2.25 (Return: 3.25)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 31 Total return (raw) = 18.0
Total wins: 5 / 31
List of winners:
Car 13:00:00 Sound Reason 4.0
Bat 14:50:00 French Conquest (IRE) 3.5
Yor 15:35:00 Mishriff (IRE) 3.25
Kem 20:15:00 Crystal Casque 2.75
Kem 20:45:00 Countessa (FR) 4.5

pathetic really.

Today's picks - two bets, one came 4th and didn't last the race out, the other won at 11/8 so s modest profit overall.
Tomorrow:
1629401248806.png

Tomorrow has some interesting races, with Stradivarius coming out for the Lonsdale cup and the Nunthorpe providing the centrepiece for the card.
I'm sure I'm not alone in thinking that this is make or break for Stradivarius, he's not looked like he has the sparkle and zip of previous seasons, so it's got to be on the cards that, unless he performs much better tomorrow than he has so far this season, he gets retired to stud. I'd like to see him win of course, much as I like Trueshan (winning a few bob on a horse, I find. often makes you more aware of their finer qualities suddenly) - but what would have been a bit of a walk in the park 2 years back now looks like hard work. Whatever happens he's the one I'll be watching - although not betting on. The Nunthorpe also looks a bit of a 'throw the dart at the board, see what number you hit' game - I can't really see a 2yo winning this normally, but could Holly Doyle at least grab a place on the 20/1 shot Chipotle? After all, Chipotle is getting 20 lbs or so off every other runner, that's a lot off your back in a 5f sprint provided you have a bit of speed. I was sort of tempted a bit by Dragon Symbol, but I don't really see any of the market leaders as being a winning prospect - having been spoiled by Battaash and Marsha over the years there's not a runner here that makes me think 'that's the one'. Another to watch maybe.

Didn't Snowfall do well? It seemed to me that the ITV pundits were determined to oppose her, I commented after the race to my wife that they were bloody good at stating the obvious after the event.... Matt Chapman was yelling that she was 'drifting like a barge' in the market, having opened at 4/9 she'd gone 1/2. 8/15 etc. I was somewhat puzzled, perhaps it's because I don't bet tens of thousands of pounds, but at my level of stakes I assure you the difference between 4/9 and 8/15, whilst mathematically apparent, makes very little difference to what I get back from a winner! I've said it before, and as a fan of the chap - not that many are I suspect, most of the ITV crew seem to keep him at arms length for a start - he does tend to get a little carried away, it's like he wanted Snowfall to be drifting and so he tried to make it sound that way. In his shoes I'd have said something more like 'still not backable, only slightly better than an ISA'. As I like watching her run, who doesn't, I was happy enough with the way everything pretty much went her way - like Mishriff yesterday, very few horses (in my view) are really looking champion material, but Mishriff and Snowfall look likely to provide even more to cheer about before they retire.

Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
I'm happy to report that when I heard Trueshan wasn't running I did have a tiny bet on Stradivarius - sounds daft but I figured he was either going to win (no problem then) or at least I'd have had a bet on him in his last run..... and with no trueshan it looked like he was missing a serious opponent. (I wouldn't have been so sure if trueshan had run, even if the ground wasn't in his favour). Definitely no bet in the Nunthorpe though...

Dave
 

davejb

Mare
..and gave it back, or a lump of it at least, when Desir Du Large fell at Killarney!
Report for : 19/08/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/20 Odds: 4.0 8.0 (Return: 14.0)
Mkt filter 1/10 Odds: 4.0 (Return: 5.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 5/14 Odds: 6.0 3.0 0.53 5.5 1.0 (Return: 21.03)
Mkt filter 2/4 Odds: 0.53 1.0 (Return: 3.53)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 4/6 Odds: 6.5 3.0 5.0 3.33 (Return: 21.83)
Mkt filter 3/5 Odds: 6.5 3.0 3.33 (Return: 15.83)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/3 Odds: 1.38 (Return: 2.38)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 43 Total return (raw) = 59.24
Total wins: 12 / 43
List of winners:
Yor 13:50:00 Zain Claudette (IRE) 7.0
Yor 14:25:00 Ever Given (IRE) 4.0
Yor 15:35:00 Snowfall (JPN) 1.53
Kil 17:10:00 Moddy Poddle (IRE) 6.5
Wol 17:35:00 Tylos (FR) 2.0
Win 18:55:00 Via Serendipity 5.0
Kil 19:45:00 Powerful Kieran (IRE) 9.0
Str 13:00:00 Serjeant Painter 7.5
Str 13:30:00 Admirals Sunset 4.0
Str 14:40:00 Cracking Destiny (IRE) 6.0
Str 15:45:00 Lawtop Legend (IRE) 4.33
Str 16:17:00 Presentandcounting (IRE) 2.38

A good while waiting for this, but we'll take it gratefully!
This shows how things swing about - there were 15 losing days before this set of results came in, for the 3 weeks prior to that there'd been a profit just about every second day. I've seen this often enough, it seems to me that there are tracks that just aren't worth following the ratings at, and if the going is unchanged for a while things improve, there are win% numbers for the tracks in the ratings sheets that show how they've performed at the track in the past, which might help weed out some of the likely bets.

Desir Du Large was challenging for the lead 2 out, and looking pretty good, when he fell. There's no telling whether he'd have gone on to win really, but he certainly didn't look like he wasn't going to give it a good go, so unfortunate but worse things happen at sea. (I've often wondered about that, who exactly determines where falling off a horse counts against maritime mishaps?)

As I changed my mind about Strad it did take some of the sting out of things, to be fair I only bet tiny amounts as a sort of interest boost, even if I could turn a profit by betting bigger amounts it seems to me that quite a lot of money and angst would be involved for limited return, so I've never been tempted to try to make an income from it. Probably just as well! It looks like Stradivarius is going to continue racing, possibly into next season - they referred to him on TV as a bit of an old boy, and at 7 yo he is past his prime probably, but given that he could live another 20 years or more it seemed a bit insulting!

The Nunthorpe was quite nice, I liked seeing it go to a local trainer, I was also evilly pleased when Wesley Ward's greatest ever runner who was 'going to set a new track record' came 7th. I'm sure WW has won races over here, I seem to recall seeing it happen once over myself, but I wish they didn't make so much of the guy and his runners, it's not like they set the track alight now, is it?
Looking at the race and my ratings afterwards I thought, hang on....

1629487685372.png

Rohaan was an NR, and Chipotle was down the field, equal third top of the list we have the first three in the race, Chil Chil and Liberty Beach were 5 and 6. Kind of 'close but no coconut' then, eh? That's pretty typical of racing though isn't it, you get close and say 'if only they'd come in the other way round...' and so on, all to explain why you still don't live in a mansion.....

No picks tomorrow.

Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
Horseracebase are now providing a free 7 day trial that can be accessed by using the following link Free Trial

I just saw that a little while ago and thought I'd help spread the word in this thread as well. I use HRB for the results and cards info each day, I do a bit of checking (and feed back any discrepancies I find to the guy who runs HRB) and then use the data for compiling my ratings from the HRB data and a few other odds and sods I've developed for my own use. It would be fair to say that without HRB I quite possibly would not being doing this stuff, as buying in results data frequently involves a subscription to some form of ratings service and frankly they are all too expensive to justify unless you are betting rather more than I care to. HRB is priced for the keen amateur who would prefer not to have to turn over several hundred quid a month just to pay the data service subscription. (My take on this, obviously, but there's no point spending £50 a month on a sub to some service if you make less than £50 a month from using it - never mind those charging three figures).

There's a heck of a lot in HRB, it's a gold mine for those who wish to datamine and find trends to follow, 'trainers from Essex with one leg shorter than the other who are sending 2 yo's to Carlisle' doesn't come into it! Forgive the levity, the point is if you are at all prone to thinking 'I wonder how you'd get on back 2nd favourites in sprints' or follow particular trainers, the offspring of certain sires, the list of options is huge.

Being able to datamine like this is not everyone's cup of tea - I don't really go in for it, the ratings take up enough time each day for me to avoid adding further strings to my bow, this is a hobby not a crusade - but for those who want to do their own ratings but not want to program it all, or want to follow stables, or just set something up to let you know when a certain type of horse is running in a certain type of race, well you can do all that and it isn't anything like as hard to get the hang of as it seems at first glance.

It is certainly the best value for money I have found in this game.

On with the usual stuff -
Report for : 20/08/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/24 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/12 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/12 Odds: 1.25 0.33 1.38 0.62 (Return: 7.58)
Mkt filter 4/7 Odds: 1.25 0.33 1.38 0.62 (Return: 7.58)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/7 Odds: 5.0 (Return: 6.0)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/9 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 52 Total return (raw) = 13.58
Total wins: 5 / 52
List of winners:
Kem 14:05:00 Moassess (IRE) 2.25
Mus 14:15:00 Aramaic (IRE) 1.33
Kem 14:35:00 Waldlowe 2.38
Sal 18:53:00 Albahr 1.62
Kil 17:00:00 Wouldnt You Agree (IRE) 6.0

The winning streak lasted a whole day then.

No picks, none tomorrow.

I can't muse on York today, I had a pretty poor night - I'd just dropped off when the dog starter demanding his morning constitutional - his guts are not improving with age. a common enough theme with the owners! I really couldn't be bothered to watch the racing, for me the best of York occurs on the Weds to Friday. Dinner time apparently, so I'm off....

Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
Report for : 21/08/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 6/22 Odds: 2.5 3.5 3.0 2.75 3.0 0.8 (Return: 21.55)
Mkt filter 5/14 Odds: 2.5 3.0 2.75 3.0 0.8 (Return: 17.05)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 6/22 Odds: 0.4 1.5 1.25 4.0 0.17 2.25 (Return: 15.57)
Mkt filter 5/8 Odds: 0.4 1.25 4.0 0.17 2.25 (Return: 13.07)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/13 Odds: 4.0 (Return: 5.0)
Mkt filter 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/5 Odds: 0.67 (Return: 1.67)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 0.67 (Return: 1.67)

Total Out = 62 Total return (raw) = 43.79
Total wins: 14 / 62
List of winners:
San 14:05:00 Reach For The Moon 1.4
San 15:15:00 King Of Clubs 3.5
Che 15:50:00 Night On Earth (IRE) 4.5
Che 16:20:00 Solent Gateway (IRE) 4.0
Lin 17:05:00 Night Eagle (IRE) 3.75
Cur 17:30:00 Duke De Sessa (IRE) 2.5
Lin 17:40:00 Nasim 2.25
Cur 18:05:00 Agartha (IRE) 5.0
Cur 18:40:00 Point Lonsdale (IRE) 1.17
Lin 18:50:00 Evaluation 4.0
Che 19:30:00 Claim The Crown (IRE) 3.25
Che 21:00:00 Mahanakhon Power 1.8
Kil 15:25:00 Embittered (IRE) 1.67
New 18:20:00 Mister Tickle (IRE) 5.0

Ummm.
There's a pick tomorrow, and 4 of the last 8 picks at the course have won, so time for a burst of optimism -
1629662967951.png

Ah - just checked the card , 8/15 so maybe not a bumper windfall sort of occasion.... oh well....as long as the price isn't any shorter I'll stick a little on I expect.

Dave
 

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  • 23-august.xlsx
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davejb

Mare
Hmm, 4/9 Caramelised, with all those unknowns in the field - doesn't seem worth it, frankly, so I'm just going to be patient and wait for a better day.... he won his maiden hurdle well enough but there could be another one or two in that field that do just as well on their first outing. Not a 4/9 shot anyway.

Dave
 

davejb

Mare
Report for : 22/08/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/16 Odds: 8.5 (Return: 9.5)
Mkt filter 0/7 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/7 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/8 Odds: 6.0 6.0 (Return: 14.0)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 6.0 (Return: 7.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 33 Total return (raw) = 23.5
Total wins: 3 / 33
List of winners:
San 17:45:00 Oceanline (IRE) 9.5
Wor 15:10:00 Champagne City 7.0
Wor 16:10:00 Czech Her Out (IRE) 7.0

Ho hum.

Caramelised duly won, still at 4/9, by about 2 miles. Still not my idea of a bet though, I just didn't know anything about the opposition and I don't like assuming they can all just be ignored.... no doubt the stable and connections were happy enough though.

No picks tomorrow.

Dave
 

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  • 24-august.xlsx
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davejb

Mare
Report for : 23/08/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/12 Odds: 4.5 7.5 (Return: 14.0)
Mkt filter 1/7 Odds: 7.5 (Return: 8.5)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/5 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/6 Odds: 5.0 7.0 (Return: 14.0)
Mkt filter 1/4 Odds: 7.0 (Return: 8.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 5/10 Odds: 1.0 1.38 1.2 0.44 9.0 (Return: 18.02)
Mkt filter 3/5 Odds: 1.0 1.38 0.44 (Return: 5.82)

Total Out = 33 Total return (raw) = 46.02
Total wins: 9 / 33
List of winners:
Rip 19:25:00 Hellenista 5.5
Rip 19:55:00 Miss Bella Brand 8.5
Str 15:55:00 Percys Word 2.0
Str 16:30:00 Goa Lil (FR) 6.0
Bal 16:40:00 Kendancer (FR) 2.38
Str 17:05:00 Fred Bear (IRE) 2.2
Str 17:35:00 Caramelised 1.44
Bal 17:45:00 Metersandmasks (IRE) 10.0
Str 18:05:00 Chapati (FR) 8.0

A fair day.

One pick tomorrow....
1629836172885.png

Win rate (of the ratings) at the track in non handicaps is running at 38%, so there ought to be some hope with this one!

Dave
 

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  • 25-august.xlsx
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davejb

Mare
Report for : 24/08/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 7/28 Odds: 4.5 6.0 10.0 5.5 4.5 4.0 4.5 (Return: 46.0)
Mkt filter 3/12 Odds: 4.5 5.5 4.0 (Return: 17.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/13 Odds: 0.5 0.22 (Return: 2.72)
Mkt filter 2/3 Odds: 0.5 0.22 (Return: 2.72)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/3 Odds: 9.0 (Return: 10.0)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/1 Odds: 2.0 (Return: 3.0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 45 Total return (raw) = 61.72
Total wins: 11 / 45
List of winners:
Mus 13:50:00 Rosies Return 1.5
Yar 14:30:00 Flower Of Thunder (IRE) 5.5
Mus 14:50:00 Clay Regazzoni 7.0
Yar 15:30:00 Siberian Night (IRE) 11.0
New 16:40:00 Sense Of Duty 1.22
Mus 17:00:00 Triple Jaye 6.5
New 18:45:00 Saratoga Gold 5.5
New 19:15:00 Just Jacob (IRE) 5.0
Bel 19:55:00 No Thanks 5.5
Ban 13:40:00 Shes A Novelty (IRE) 3.0
Ban 14:10:00 Flying Verse 10.0

Not bad again.

Sadly the pick made a mistake at the last and couldn't do anything in the time left - to be honest I doubt he'd have won but we'll never know now! He went off 2/1 favourite, I got 3's so am a bit miffed, I'd much rather the 3/1 shots won than the 8/15s!

No picks tomorrow.
Dave
 

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  • 26-august.xlsx
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davejb

Mare
Report for : 25/08/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 5/22 Odds: 4.0 4.0 12.0 2.5 2.5 (Return: 30.0)
Mkt filter 4/17 Odds: 4.0 4.0 2.5 2.5 (Return: 17.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/16 Odds: 1.5 (Return: 2.5)
Mkt filter 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/3 Odds: 6.0 (Return: 7.0)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 6.0 (Return: 7.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 45 Total return (raw) = 39.5
Total wins: 7 / 45
List of winners:
Cat 13:30:00 Overthink (IRE) 5.0
Cat 14:30:00 Lezardrieux 5.0
Cat 15:30:00 Blissful Song (IRE) 13.0
Cat 16:00:00 Adabbah (IRE) 2.5
Kem 18:25:00 Solomons Judgement (IRE) 3.5
Wol 20:10:00 Cuban Cigar 3.5
Bel 18:45:00 Zamond (FR) 7.0

Boo!

One pick for tomorrow at DownRoyal -
1630004606831.png

2/1 Fav at the moment, forecast for shorter.

Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
Report for : 26/08/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/24 Odds: 1.88 2.25 1.75 (Return: 8.88)
Mkt filter 3/14 Odds: 1.88 2.25 1.75 (Return: 8.88)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/12 Odds: 5.0 2.75 3.5 (Return: 14.25)
Mkt filter 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/5 Odds: 3.0 (Return: 4.0)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 3.0 (Return: 4.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/2 Odds: 0.67 (Return: 1.67)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 0.67 (Return: 1.67)

Total Out = 43 Total return (raw) = 28.8
Total wins: 8 / 43
List of winners:
Car 14:40:00 Breeze Easy 6.0
Che 14:55:00 Wadacre Gogo 3.75
Ffo 15:40:00 Cadeau Dor (FR) 2.88
Che 16:00:00 The Vegas Raider (IRE) 3.25
Tip 16:50:00 Panama Red (IRE) 4.5
Che 17:05:00 Katherine Place 2.75
Sed 16:45:00 Onehundredpercent (FR) 1.67
Sed 18:50:00 The Blame Game (IRE) 4.0

A shame the odds were a bit short on a few of the above.

Today's pick won at 8/11, having opened at 10/11 - having said that I got 7/5 at about 1pm on her, and with an odds boost that became 6/4 (available to those of us who bet peanuts and don't win too often to set any alarms off - mind you I've only had one free bet in the past 2 years while my wife gets them rather often). I DID say 2/1 last night was likely to shorten, but then again I waited to bet myself so....

Tomorrow - no picks.

So, a bit of a story then, to maybe add a bit of interest to a race tomorrow. Are you sitting comfortably?

I will be watching the Beverley Bullet at 3.15, to see how the Elite club runner Judicial does - he's won this race before, and he's won several races at Beverley, apparently liking the track. He's running pretty well these days, since being switched to 6f, and this drop back to 5 bothers me a bit - put simply as he has aged - he's 9 now and ought to be putting his feet up soon - he seems to have managed to get 6 whereas he previously seemed to only just manage 5, but at the expense of a bit of all out speed, which means he can be a bit short of the speed needed to hit the front over 5. I also think he's probably better with a bit of give, say good or good to soft, rather than the fast ground he used to blitz 5f on. He managed to win a group 3 a while back, the pinnacle of his success as he tends to strike in conditions and listed races, he still looks, despite his age, to enjoy the racing and he's a solid sprinter who wins a bit more often than it seems. 260k in winnings, 340k total earnings, he's won 13/34 races, he doesn't tend to place if he doesn't win though - only 5 places in the 21 races he didn't win - so not much point backing him each way!
For a few years Judicial was somewhat overshadowed by his half sister Marsha, who won a Nunthorpe that seems to be replayed every year ('Frankie thinks he's won, I'm not so sure....' as Richard Hoiles put it) - also an Elite Club horse of course, who went on to be sold to Coolmore for 6 milion, which put the Elite club onto a much firmer footing I might add - Judicial may only have got as high as Group 3, but he's the 'winningmost' horse Elite have had.

Tomorrow I think he's up against it a bit, I fancy Dakota Gold will get his revenge for a Chester defeat (over 6f) 4 weeks ago, and there are others in the field who are likely to make a race of it - Judicial can win, and I hope he does, but he looks vulnerable to me and I think the stable are rather figuring this is a bit of a favourite race for him, without maybe seeing the drop back to 5f as being that big an issue.... although they themselves seem to think Jude is better these days over 6.

Hey ho, I'll watch the race with great interest - what I don't want to see is Judicial being outpaced over the first half mile and then unable to quicken, rolling in 8th of 12, he deserves better than that.
 

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davejb

Mare
Report for : 27/08/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 5/32 Odds: 5.0 1.25 5.0 4.5 4.0 (Return: 24.75)
Mkt filter 2/19 Odds: 4.5 4.0 (Return: 10.5)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/15 Odds: 0.67 0.91 0.57 (Return: 5.15)
Mkt filter 3/7 Odds: 0.67 0.91 0.57 (Return: 5.15)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/4 Odds: 0.73 (Return: 1.73)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 53 Total return (raw) = 31.63
Total wins: 9 / 53
List of winners:
New 13:10:00 Silk Romance (IRE) 1.67
New 13:45:00 Vanitas 6.0
New 14:20:00 Razzle Dazzle 1.91
New 15:30:00 Fabilis 2.25
Ffo 16:10:00 Desert Doctor (IRE) 6.0
Ffo 16:40:00 Kalamity Kitty 5.5
Ham 17:10:00 Thunder Legend (IRE) 1.57
Ham 17:40:00 Mi Capricho (IRE) 5.0
Dow 19:00:00 Hi Stranger (IRE) 1.73

Still doing little then.
No picks today, none tomorrow.

Judicial ran a bit better than I expected today, he wasn't all that far back with a furlong to go, and ran on - he deserved his third place, probably a bit lucky as Ostilio was inches away and gaining as they crossed the line, it was a bit of a bunch finish for the placings and Judicial managed to grab another 5 grand for the pot, he really has been a marvellous example of how good Elite can be not only at campaigning their horses but also as horse breeders. I didn't have a bet, my ratings had the winner top rated and I wasn't going to bet against Judicial - I know I had reservations about the trip but I'd have felt a right idiot if I'd bet against him and he'd won. The one that never seemed to fire was Dakota Gold, I mean he was kind of in the leading bunch for a while, but I expected rather more of a showing from him than we saw.

Benbatl came tantalisingly close didn't he? The trainer said he would come on for the run in his pre race comments so hopefully some of the big plans they have for him might come off - another slightly older horse at 7, unlike Judicial Benbatl has a stud future ahead of him.... Judicial being gelded early in his career.

Not much on tomorrow - I'm busy transferring things to my laptop and making sure I have some chance of doing this stuff next week while I'm away. If I don't post on here Monday to Friday then that's life, but I'll try to keep up to date .... I'll be visiting various places and people, which will of course take priority.

Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
Report for : 28/08/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/27 Odds: 4.0 14.0 (Return: 20.0)
Mkt filter 1/15 Odds: 14.0 (Return: 15.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/18 Odds: 3.33 1.0 3.33 7.0 (Return: 18.66)
Mkt filter 1/6 Odds: 1.0 (Return: 2.0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/7 Odds: 1.0 7.5 (Return: 10.5)
Mkt filter 2/2 Odds: 1.0 7.5 (Return: 10.5)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/1 Odds: 0.57 (Return: 1.57)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 0.57 (Return: 1.57)

Total Out = 53 Total return (raw) = 50.73
Total wins: 9 / 53
List of winners:
Goo 13:15:00 Willoughby Bay (IRE) 4.33
New 14:10:00 Manaccan 2.0
Goo 15:00:00 Dancing King (IRE) 4.33
Bev 15:15:00 Tis Marvellous 8.0
New 15:20:00 Run To Freedom 5.0
Red 19:15:00 Shes A Deva 15.0
Car 14:50:00 Gladiatorial (IRE) 1.57
Car 16:00:00 Onthefrontfoot (IRE) 2.0
Car 18:20:00 First Quest (USA) 8.5

Tantalisingly close - or bloody annoying, depends on your viewpoint.
No picks today or tomorrow.

Tomorrow morning will see me, my wife, and our dog Carra heading up the M6 to start our journey to the Moray coastline for a few days, what better day to pick for a jaunt along the M6 and various A roads than Bank holiday monday..... oh well, things combined to make that the one week we could get away. Carra regards our little VW Up with disdain, he's about 30kg of 'I'm not getting into that' when it comes down to it, unlike our previous dogs (king charles spaniels) who used to love going in the car. Carra used to belong to somebody with a 4x4, I think he's a bit of a snob.

There may be a quiet period now for a few days, I hope not, but my laptop is an HP Envy, it cost a grand or so about 3 years back or whenever I bought it, and they have a sort of dinky little side mounted on/off switch that has almost no travel and little tactile feedback. I've already had it replaced once.... unknown to me at the time the on/off buttons seem prone to giving up the ghost, and yesterday mine started to misbehave - so I may not be able to switch it on at some point. It's fair to say that I have little use for a laptop these days, so it is very lightly used, and I am less than impressed with them getting such a basic thing wrong in its design. I shan't buy another. Neither will I pay over £100 to repair this one again, so we'll see if it holds up for the few days I will be needing it. So, I'll either be online again tomorrow night, or I'll be back online on saturday sometime, HP will decide!


Dave
 

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