• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
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  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR

Early days

davejb

Mare
Report for : 01/05/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/21 Odds: 2.0 3.5 (Return: 7.5)
Mkt filter 0/9 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/9 Odds: 0.25 (Return: 1.25)
Mkt filter 1/5 Odds: 0.25 (Return: 1.25)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/10 Odds: 4.5 8.0 (Return: 14.5)
Mkt filter 1/7 Odds: 8.0 (Return: 9.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/7 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 47 Total return (raw) = 23.25
Total wins: 5 / 47
List of winners:
Goo 15:10:00 Desert Safari (IRE) 3.0
Don 18:35:00 Lexington Dash (FR) 4.5
Don 19:10:00 Twilight Calls 1.25
Utt 13:55:00 Iron Port (IRE) 5.5
Pun 17:40:00 Pure Bliss 9.0

Not that great again, still waiting for a decent amount of data really - hopefully may should see improvement, as long as we don't suddenly get a load of heavy going and rainstorms.

No picks today, none tomorrow either - hardly unexpected but there'll be some for the new flat season quite soon I'd think, as there's now a month or so of meetings in the data by now.... of course whether the 'pick' method works on the flat turf as well is yet to be seen!

I had Sacred in the 1000 Gns today, looked like she didn't get the mile at that pace, shame as she looked like she was going to run on well from the last quarter mile or so before fading, I was on another EW job at 17/2 with her so a place would have done. <sigh>

Oh well, up a few points over the weekend anyway, so not to worry.
Dave
 

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  • 03_may.xlsx
    102 KB · Views: 3

davejb

Mare
Report for : 02/05/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/16 Odds: 1.25 2.5 1.38 (Return: 8.13)
Mkt filter 3/10 Odds: 1.25 2.5 1.38 (Return: 8.13)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/11 Odds: 1.75 0.2 (Return: 3.95)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 0.2 (Return: 1.2)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 27 Total return (raw) = 12.08
Total wins: 5 / 27
List of winners:
Sal 14:35:00 Oman (IRE) 2.75
Sal 15:10:00 No Recollection 2.25
Ham 16:25:00 Howzer Black (IRE) 3.5
Ham 16:55:00 Fantastic Fox 1.2
Ham 17:25:00 Pearl Of Qatar 2.38

Fairly typical Sunday, for some reason.

No picks today, there are 4 on the AW tomorrow, 2 of them sprints:

1620066518520.png

Dave
 

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  • 04_may.xlsx
    111 KB · Views: 3

davejb

Mare
Report for : 03/05/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/20 Odds: 2.25 2.75 (Return: 7.0)
Mkt filter 0/10 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/10 Odds: 2.5 1.75 0.8 (Return: 8.05)
Mkt filter 3/5 Odds: 2.5 1.75 0.8 (Return: 8.05)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/11 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/5 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/10 Odds: 0.91 3.0 1.63 (Return: 8.54)
Mkt filter 3/6 Odds: 0.91 3.0 1.63 (Return: 8.54)

Total Out = 51 Total return (raw) = 23.59
Total wins: 8 / 51
List of winners:
Win 13:21:00 Stake Acclaim (IRE) 3.25
Cur 13:30:00 Quick Suzy (IRE) 3.5
Bat 13:35:00 Sienna Bonnie (IRE) 2.75
Win 15:06:00 River Dawn 3.75
Win 15:41:00 Sevenal 1.8
Kem 13:15:00 Paso Doble (IRE) 1.91
Dow 13:40:00 Don Diablo (IRE) 4.0
Kem 13:50:00 Adjali (GER) 2.63

on the plus side there are a few turf winners coming through now, I would hope to see things improve a bit more though as the weeks go by - the need for patience in this game is bloody annoying!

Picks did okay today, the first and last of the four both sank without much of a trace, the second one - Four Adaay - collared the leader on the line to score a dead heat at 11/5. Having got 3/1 earlier this turned a 0.6pt profit on that one into a 1pt profit, whilst my 7/1 on Omany Amber got BOG'd to the SP of 9/1 to cheer me up rather more. Final score for myself was +8 pts on the day from 4 bet, so I'm pleased with that.
Personally I've had quite a nice few days, helped by that 50/1 1pt EW place on Naval Crown in the 2000 gns, my bank has gone up 14 pts since close of play on Friday which I sincerely hope is a sign of good things to come.

Tomorrow:
1620154615906.png

Dave
 

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  • 05_may.xlsx
    84.6 KB · Views: 0

davejb

Mare
Report for : 04/05/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 4/13 Odds: 2.25 4.5 9.0 3.33 (Return: 23.08)
Mkt filter 3/10 Odds: 4.5 9.0 3.33 (Return: 19.83)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/6 Odds: 0.83 (Return: 1.83)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 0.83 (Return: 1.83)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/13 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/8 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/12 Odds: 1.0 0.2 4.0 (Return: 8.2)
Mkt filter 2/6 Odds: 1.0 0.2 (Return: 3.2)

Total Out = 44 Total return (raw) = 33.11
Total wins: 8 / 44
List of winners:
Lin 13:00:00 Anmaat (IRE) 1.83
Lin 15:05:00 Four Adaay 3.25
Gow 15:45:00 Bell Ex One (IRE) 5.5
Wol 18:00:00 Omany Amber 10.0
Wol 19:30:00 Abel Tasman 4.33
Ayr 13:15:00 Alqamar 2.0
Sou 19:20:00 No Ordinary Joe (IRE) 1.2
Bal 20:10:00 September Lady (IRE) 5.0

Ho hum.
Today's picks did okay, 3 of the 4 won, although odds were short - 5/4, 6/5 and 4/9 - actually I backed the last one, Aramis Grey, at evens and subsequent non runner(s) in the filed turned it into a 3 horse race, with AG the hot 4/9 favourite. As I type this there's a stewards enquiry going on, Ben Curtis might get a telling off for letting her drift across the track in the final furlong, but it won't affect the result unless something rather odd has been added to the stewards' teapot. Two for tomorrow:

1620242787126.png

the number in the first column is the number of bets so far using this bit of programming, Aramis Grey was the 99th winner so far.

The fact that nobody timed the 3.20 at Fakenham yesterday, won by Bucko Boy, doesn't seem to be worthy of any comment - personally I can't believe that there being nobody timing the race (the comment appears to be 'no live pictures or replays...no reporters present' - this meeting was supposedly televised by Sky Sports, and as I wasn't watching the channel yesterday I have no idea why they didn't watch that race whilst filming the other 5 races, so there might be some pretty amazing reason I'm unaware of, but it seems pretty slapdash that nobody does an official time for races. The BHA site does it's usual chocolate teapot impression, expressing all the different beaten distances as a time interval.... so the second home was officially 1.88s behind the winner, not much use if you don't know whether the winner finished in say less than 15 or 20 minutes, is it? I've rated all runners as zeroes, with an in running comment of 'race not timed', there's no point guessing a rating for them all.

Oh well,
Dave
 

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  • 06_may.xlsx
    76.7 KB · Views: 1

Outlander

Gelding
Report for : 04/05/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 4/13 Odds: 2.25 4.5 9.0 3.33 (Return: 23.08)
Mkt filter 3/10 Odds: 4.5 9.0 3.33 (Return: 19.83)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/6 Odds: 0.83 (Return: 1.83)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 0.83 (Return: 1.83)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/13 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/8 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/12 Odds: 1.0 0.2 4.0 (Return: 8.2)
Mkt filter 2/6 Odds: 1.0 0.2 (Return: 3.2)

Total Out = 44 Total return (raw) = 33.11
Total wins: 8 / 44
List of winners:
Lin 13:00:00 Anmaat (IRE) 1.83
Lin 15:05:00 Four Adaay 3.25
Gow 15:45:00 Bell Ex One (IRE) 5.5
Wol 18:00:00 Omany Amber 10.0
Wol 19:30:00 Abel Tasman 4.33
Ayr 13:15:00 Alqamar 2.0
Sou 19:20:00 No Ordinary Joe (IRE) 1.2
Bal 20:10:00 September Lady (IRE) 5.0

Ho hum.
Today's picks did okay, 3 of the 4 won, although odds were short - 5/4, 6/5 and 4/9 - actually I backed the last one, Aramis Grey, at evens and subsequent non runner(s) in the filed turned it into a 3 horse race, with AG the hot 4/9 favourite. As I type this there's a stewards enquiry going on, Ben Curtis might get a telling off for letting her drift across the track in the final furlong, but it won't affect the result unless something rather odd has been added to the stewards' teapot. Two for tomorrow:

View attachment 99899

the number in the first column is the number of bets so far using this bit of programming, Aramis Grey was the 99th winner so far.

The fact that nobody timed the 3.20 at Fakenham yesterday, won by Bucko Boy, doesn't seem to be worthy of any comment - personally I can't believe that there being nobody timing the race (the comment appears to be 'no live pictures or replays...no reporters present' - this meeting was supposedly televised by Sky Sports, and as I wasn't watching the channel yesterday I have no idea why they didn't watch that race whilst filming the other 5 races, so there might be some pretty amazing reason I'm unaware of, but it seems pretty slapdash that nobody does an official time for races. The BHA site does it's usual chocolate teapot impression, expressing all the different beaten distances as a time interval.... so the second home was officially 1.88s behind the winner, not much use if you don't know whether the winner finished in say less than 15 or 20 minutes, is it? I've rated all runners as zeroes, with an in running comment of 'race not timed', there's no point guessing a rating for them all.

Oh well,
Dave
Power cut during 3.20 Fakenham, there were no pictures of the race anywhere, I play in-running and there was no coverage at all for the race, in the past under these circumstances they sometimes somehow end up showing the race later or having a replay available but not on this occasion .
I doubt very much the power cut would have affected the GPS tracking so you will probably get a time for the race from TPD on the sectionals section of the ATR website in the next couple of days.
 

davejb

Mare
Somebody forgot to put a shilling in the meter eh? (Somewhat old reference admittedly).
It still seems a bit Mickey Mouse to me to not have at least one person there able to time the race, how many watches have a second hand, how about timing on phones etc.... I guess nobody thought of doing it.
Oh well, another charming anecdote for the collection.
Dave
 

mick

Sire
Another Micky Mouse you can read sometimes on the BHA site......."Going stick reading unavailable because the stick has broken". Does this mean the ground is like concrete and do you not have a spare stick. ? Another you will not see but perhaps should might be.........The Clerk of the course reports the ground as Good .............Is he an optimist bonkers or fibbing. ?
 

mick

Sire
Professional sport is being run by men in suits who in the real world have no clue about their subject but they know how to make a profit. They dont give a damn about the sport we love.
I am not going to type too much because i will only wind up myself, but i think its fair comment to say that most would agree the important of accurate going reports and fast updates for any changes, but both are often lacking and in this multi million pound industry its about time that they got this sorted.
 

davejb

Mare
I think it's all down to the authority's view of the public myself. My opinion has been coloured somewhat by a good few emails I've sent them over the past few years querying omissions and errors on the BHA site - the unvarying response has been a polite note fobbing me off and telling me to contact course clerks and so forth. My last reply to such an email was to point out that a mandatory BHA rule for courses had been contravened and it was up to the BHA to police their own regulations, not me... I am still waiting for a reply to that one, although as it's been about 3 months I suspect i might not be getting one.

The view the BHA hold of the punting public, I feel, is that we are a necessary evil who ought to be ignored by polite society. As long as bookmakers are there to keep our base desires fed then leave the mob to get on with it. That racing is wholly dependent on that mob for the money it needs to survive doesn't come into it, we are lucky to be allowed to watch the racing, and ought not be overly pandered to! It's a pretty archaic system, many bits of which I and many others actually like - I think the racing is far more interesting than the US version - turf flat is more interesting than the AW, and we have some beautiful racecourses, but I doubt the US punter has to contend with going changes that you find out about 24 hours later, distance changes that may or may not be mentioned, and race timing that can at times be 20s adrift..... I think a 'best of both' approach ought to be the target personally.

Dave
 

davejb

Mare
Report for : 05/05/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/11 Odds: 3.5 0.44 (Return: 5.94)
Mkt filter 2/7 Odds: 3.5 0.44 (Return: 5.94)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/10 Odds: 1.63 0.83 0.4 6.0 (Return: 12.86)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 0.4 (Return: 1.4)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/11 Odds: 3.0 12.0 (Return: 17.0)
Mkt filter 1/8 Odds: 3.0 (Return: 4.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/7 Odds: 0.83 2.75 0.3 1.2 (Return: 9.08)
Mkt filter 2/2 Odds: 0.3 1.2 (Return: 3.5)

Total Out = 39 Total return (raw) = 44.88
Total wins: 12 / 39
List of winners:
Che 14:15:00 Dubai Fountain (IRE) 2.63
Gow 16:55:00 Agrimony 1.83
Kem 17:10:00 Thunder Love 1.4
Gow 17:30:00 Mighty Blue (FR) 7.0
Gow 19:00:00 Black Cat Bobby 4.5
Kem 20:10:00 Aramis Grey (IRE) 1.44
New 13:30:00 Dragon Bones 1.83
New 14:00:00 Trailboss (IRE) 3.75
Kel 14:55:00 Mance Rayder (IRE) 4.0
New 15:05:00 Christmas In April (FR) 13.0
Kel 16:00:00 Dolphin Square (IRE) 1.3
Fon 19:50:00 Credo (IRE) 2.2

An occasional win is always nice.
Both of today's picks lost :(

No picks for tomorrow.
Dave
 

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  • 07_may.xlsx
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davejb

Mare
Report for : 06/05/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/9 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/6 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/5 Odds: 1.63 6.5 (Return: 10.13)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 1.63 (Return: 2.63)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/14 Odds: 2.25 (Return: 3.25)
Mkt filter 1/8 Odds: 2.25 (Return: 3.25)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/8 Odds: 1.25 8.0 4.0 (Return: 16.25)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 36 Total return (raw) = 29.63
Total wins: 6 / 36
List of winners:
Che 15:15:00 Japan 2.63
Che 16:15:00 Mercurial (IRE) 7.5
Hun 12:50:00 Raffle Ticket 2.25
Wor 16:07:00 Butlers Brief (IRE) 3.25
Tip 18:00:00 Face The Odds (IRE) 9.0
Tip 18:30:00 Sliabh Mhuire Lass (IRE) 5.0

That was a short winning run, wasn't it!

No picks today of course, couple for tomorrow though -

1620414019681.png

Only three rated runners in the Hexham race, but that's not a bad rating and she's probably favourite so I'm inclined to take the chance of an unrated newcomer causing an upset.

Dave
 

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  • 08_may.xlsx
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davejb

Mare
Report for : 07/05/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 4/25 Odds: 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.75 (Return: 18.75)
Mkt filter 3/12 Odds: 5.0 3.0 2.75 (Return: 13.75)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/12 Odds: 1.2 0.44 (Return: 3.64)
Mkt filter 2/4 Odds: 1.2 0.44 (Return: 3.64)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/9 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/5 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/4 Odds: 1.63 (Return: 2.63)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 50 Total return (raw) = 25.02
Total wins: 7 / 50
List of winners:
Che 13:45:00 Grove Ferry (IRE) 6.0
Che 14:15:00 Armory (IRE) 2.2
Asc 14:30:00 Stowell 1.44
Not 19:30:00 Cruyff Turn 5.0
Not 20:00:00 Professional Widow (IRE) 4.0
Rip 20:20:00 Yorkshire Lady 3.75
Mar 12:30:00 Restandbethankful 2.63

Well, the flat has started to contribute perhaps... we'll see as time goes by. To be fair I've always had in mind the start of June as being the point at which I'd hope the flat ratings would be doing better, through March and April you get some AW runners giving the turf a go, and that can kind of mess things up a bit as the turf flat runners perhaps don't have that fitness edge, plus the going is usually a bit soggy at times. I've always viewed it as the first couple of months producing form that it can be dangerous to hang your hat - come May some of the better horses are appearing, but unless you are aiming at Epsom classics your job as a trainer of a better contender is more likely to be to get a run in for opening the tubes then head for Ascot and the slew of festivals that follow. From a form/ratings point of view, if the weather stays nice - it's a disaster to have alternating periods of hot and dry/stormy and waterlogged - there's a bit of a golden period across midsummer into August where you can start thinking you have the hang of it.... then Autumn kicks in, and as soon as the weather starts bouncing around and the going begins to run up and down the scale from soggy to concrete it's all back in the lap of the gods, it's fair to say there aren't many horses that can hit their peak whatever the going. Theoretically courses aim to produce good to firm for flat racing, and good (no firmer than good to firm) for the jumps, although it is noted that there's a bit of leeway if the weather catches the course out or there's some topographical or geological effect to consider (this is BHA guidance for courses, section 3 of BHA General Instructions, for those interested).

Sometimes, to be honest, when I think about how form swings about as the going changes bite, especially (it seems to me) on the flat, I wonder why I even think I might have a clue what's going on!

Right, three picks today, lost, W8/15, W2/1 - I only bet the first and third of those, as 8/15 is too short for my liking, but of course my records will still call Erne River a winner because it's hardly the ratings' fault the horse was well odds on, is it? It's also a bit dangerous, in my view, to cherry pick your results when assessing whether something is working.

As things stand that was either 3 pts out, 4.33 (4.34?) back or, in my case, 2 pts out and 3 back - not a major profit, but 50% isn't a bad interest rate. This was winner 100 (Erne River - and of course Betty Baloo was winner number 101) from 278 bets, a win rate of 36.33%. From a profit point of view it's only 15% up, the last 2 weeks of the month didn't produce much profit. There have only been 4 sprint bets all week, and although two won they were both odds on - I am rather hoping to see a few more coming up... just when I'd got used to the AW race tempo flat came along and it all changed!

Tomorrow, just the one:
1620501046947.png

This is a Blackmore/De Bromhead job for Gigginstown, opposition looks to be most likely from another Gigginstown runner for Denise Foster (Jack Kennedy up) called The Very Man so probably not a sure thing, but also likely to be either favourite or a close 2nd fav to TVM.... I expect one of them ought to win, I rather hope it's Cavalry Master of course :D.

Nothing else doing, unless you count a shortish dog walk in 20 mins or so.... at least the rain has held off for a while now - it's been windy but dry since this afternoon at least, not the nicest weather, which probably accounts for the vast crowds of people not on the beach for our afternoon walk. Some hardy souls in the (not inexpensive to rent) beach huts on the prom, I do rather question whether, having spent a fair few quid renting and driving here and all that, it might be more fun to just go home rather than sit wrapped up in furs sipping endless hot drinks and wishing there was a toilet a bit closer. Any bets that this epic of survival in the arctic blast will turn into a super day out, slightly let down by the weather?

Dave
 

Attachments

  • 09_may.xlsx
    67.6 KB · Views: 6

mattyboy

Yearling
Somebody forgot to put a shilling in the meter eh? (Somewhat old reference admittedly).
It still seems a bit Mickey Mouse to me to not have at least one person there able to time the race, how many watches have a second hand, how about timing on phones etc.... I guess nobody thought of doing it.
Oh well, another charming anecdote for the collection.
Dave
That's the lockdown for you. Limited number of officials at courses
 
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