• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a 20% discount on Inform Racing.
    Simply enter the coupon code ukbettingform when subscribing here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Inform Racing so help is always available if needed.
    Best Wishes
    AR
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR

Early days

davejb

Mare
Report for : 13/04/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/9 Odds: 7.0 2.25 (Return: 11.25)
Mkt filter 2/4 Odds: 7.0 2.25 (Return: 11.25)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/6 Odds: 4.5 (Return: 5.5)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/13 Odds: 10.0 4.0 (Return: 16.0)
Mkt filter 1/6 Odds: 4.0 (Return: 5.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/12 Odds: 3.33 (Return: 4.33)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 40 Total return (raw) = 37.08
Total wins: 6 / 40
List of winners:
New 15:20:00 Highland Avenue (IRE) 5.5
New 18:30:00 Thaayer 8.0
New 19:00:00 Stars In The Night (IRE) 3.25
New 13:50:00 State Crown (IRE) 11.0
New 15:30:00 Mystic Court (IRE) 5.0
New 16:35:00 Teds Friend (IRE) 4.33

Better than the day before at least.

Only selection today came 2nd, the two picks came 3rd and second. Bah!


Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Cheltenham 13:30:00 [NH H] Listed Race [20.5f] Stks [[7] run]
7/7 Runners rated
90 * 6513125 The Glancing Queen (IRE) (Bf 3.5) Drawn 0/7 Mare
King A 1-26(8) Cannon Tom J 2-21(6) Days : 28
DST JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET Evs 1Fav
WR% = 32.0

Limerick 13:55:00 [NH H] [16f] Stks [[14] run]
9/17 Runners rated
80 * 7348182 Easca Peasca (IRE) (Bf 2.63) Drawn 0/14 Gelding
Hamilton B R 0-3(0) OKeeffe Sean F 1-19(4) Days : 44
dst jck OR
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 6/4 1Fav
WR% = 38.0

Newmarket 15:00:00 [Flat] Group 3 [6f] Stks [[7] run]
7/7 Runners rated
82 * 6421115 Oxted (Bf 1.67) Drawn 7/7 Gelding
Teal R A 1-6(2) Moore Ryan 3-14(8) Days : 180 !!! ALERT !!!
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
Flat non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 4/6 1Fav
WR% = 24.0

Cheltenham 16:25:00 [NH C] Class 2 [16.5f] Hcap [[6] run]
6/6 Runners rated
95 * 4312112 Miss Amelia (Bf 2.5) Drawn 0/6 Mare
Walford Mark 2-12(4) Hughes Brian 10-58(29) Days : 18
DST OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/4 2Fav
WR% = 15.0

Picks:

1618428982534.png
Dave
 

Attachments

  • 15_apr_full.xlsx
    75.4 KB · Views: 16

davejb

Mare
Report for : 14/04/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/20 Odds: 5.5 6.5 (Return: 14.0)
Mkt filter 1/11 Odds: 5.5 (Return: 6.5)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/10 Odds: 1.88 1.5 (Return: 5.38)
Mkt filter 2/3 Odds: 1.88 1.5 (Return: 5.38)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/5 Odds: 8.0 (Return: 9.0)
Mkt filter 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 36 Total return (raw) = 28.38
Total wins: 5 / 36
List of winners:
Bev 14:15:00 Vintage Clarets 2.88
Bev 16:00:00 Victory Angel (IRE) 6.5
New 16:10:00 Delta Bay 2.5
Kem 17:15:00 Coupe De Champagne (GER) 7.5
Che 14:05:00 Manofthemountain (IRE) 9.0

Still not doing that great for all ratings.
Selections today ended up as NR, 0,2,2 so no joy there,

Picks did a bit better thankfully, W4/5 (just in my betting range), W16/5, 2nd. So 3 out and 6 back - nice round figure there then!


Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Ayr 13:00:00 [NH H] Class 3 [16f] Stks [[5] run]
4/5 Runners rated
104 * 1425111 Stepney Causeway (Bf 2.38) Drawn 0/5 Gelding
Skelton Daniel 8-50(19) Skelton Harry 15-62(38) Days : 18
GNG DST JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 10/11 1Fav
WR% = 16.0

Fontwell 16:10:00 [NH C] Class 5 [19.5f] Hcap [[8] run]
6/8 Runners rated
69 * 522F611 Diligent (FR) (Bf 1.44) Drawn 0/8 Gelding
Hawke N J 4-12(2) Buckley Kieran 4-16(9) Days : 6
GNG DST JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 1/3 1Fav
WR% = 24.0

Ayr 16:27:00 [NH H] Class 3 [24.5f] Hcap [[12] run]
14/14 Runners rated
82 * 8311225 No Regrets (IRE) (Bf 11) Drawn 0/12 Gelding
Richards N G 2-8(0) Quinlan Sean 3-16(3) Days : 27
dst
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 13/2 3Fav
WR% = 19.0

Exeter 16:50:00 [NH H] Class 4 [17f] Stks [[8] run]
5/8 Runners rated
75 * 24528 Kilmington Rose (IRE) (Bf 1.73) Drawn 0/8 Mare
Nicholls P F 13-48(9) Williams Lorcan 5-23(11) Days : 20

Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 2/5 1Fav
WR% = 35.0

Exeter 19:20:00 [NH C] Class 6 [24f] Stks [[4] run]
1/4 Runners rated
45 * 53456P6 Chase Me (IRE) (Bf 2.75) Drawn 0/4 Gelding
Ridley J M 0-0(0) Baker Mr Z 0-3(0) Days : 45

Passes: Odds
Fails: Form Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/10 1Fav
WR% = 35.0


Picks list only has one for tomorrow:
1618513908464.png

This will be bet number 217, of the preceding 216 there have been 79 winners (36.5%).

As the flat season is still getting under way I would imagine there'll be days with few bets like this, until enough runners have at least one turf outing under their belts, when the AW flat is on (none tomorrow) the number of bets will tend to increase - it will be interesting to see if the turf picks can match the rather good performance of the all weather ones.

Dave
 

Attachments

  • 16_apr_full.xlsx
    81.8 KB · Views: 10

davejb

Mare
Report for : 15/04/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/12 Odds: 0.8 3.0 (Return: 5.8)
Mkt filter 2/7 Odds: 0.8 3.0 (Return: 5.8)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/8 Odds: 0.5 1.63 (Return: 4.13)
Mkt filter 2/4 Odds: 0.5 1.63 (Return: 4.13)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/11 Odds: 6.0 5.5 (Return: 13.5)
Mkt filter 2/6 Odds: 6.0 5.5 (Return: 13.5)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 35 Total return (raw) = 23.43
Total wins: 6 / 35
List of winners:
Rip 14:50:00 Highland Rocker (FR) 1.5
New 16:55:00 Blow Your Horn (IRE) 1.8
New 18:25:00 Vanity Affair (IRE) 4.0
New 19:25:00 Unforgotten (IRE) 2.63
Che 14:05:00 Her Indoors (IRE) 7.0
Che 15:50:00 Pink Legend 6.5

More ho hummery.

No selections today, and only one pick who won at a million to one on, sorry, 4/9, might as well have been 8 million to one on then....

Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Bangor 12:25:00 [NH C] Class 4 [17.5f] Hcap [[10] run]
9/10 Runners rated
95 * 0444453 Crooks Peak (Bf 6) Drawn 0/10 Gelding
Skelton Daniel 8-52(21) Skelton Harry 12-61(37) Days : 11
gng dst jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 3/1 1Fav
WR% = 10.0

Curragh 14:35:00 [Flat] Group 3 [7f] Stks [[12] run]
12/12 Runners rated
77 * 4173214 Know It All (Bf 5) Drawn 1/12 Filly
Murtagh J P 2-16(4) Coen Ben M 2-18(5) Days : 217 !!! ALERT !!!

Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
Flat non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 3/1 1Fav
WR% = 12.0

No picks sadly, so I'll not be betting.... not really going to be a day for it anyway, is it? I spoke to/with HRH twice during my career in the RAF, just a few words, both on the same day. Anybody not interested in war stories skip to the end now.

It was early 1990's, I'd been in for about 12-14 years (can't remember which year it was, but 92-94 or so) and that had been spent flying on Nimrods for the first half (120 sqn), working on the ground as a briefer/debriefer type for another 5 years or so, then I started to go around the roundabout the second time and after a year spent reconverting to the Nimrod (this should have taken a bit under 6 months but Desert Storm/Shield got in the way and the conversion unit went on hold for 6 months or so) and here I was, back on a Nimrod squadron, being groomed for a lead operator slot again. Having reached the dizzy heights of Flight Sergeant, being promoted a whole once in all that time - you became a sergeant on completing the basic flying trying 14 months into your career you see) - I was generally able to avoid the worst of the naff jobs going around, but when HRH was scheduled to come and give our squadron (206) a new standard. (Standard as in flag, I don't mean HRH was popping in to do a bit of Q&A on us).

This involved lots of practise marching and drill, luckily after a full working day there were still hours of daylight left, so we were all allowed to work longer for the fun of it. For several days. You hear people saying that the troops really enjoy all that marching stuff, 'bags of swank' the station warrant officer (a rank and position created to ensure nobody enjoyed themselves too much) would say. Well, I for one hated every stupid minute of it, always. I also had an abiding contempt for those who DID enjoy it, especially those watching - didn't they know the pubs were open? There were better ways to spend spare time.... spare being defined, in the RAF, as being the period you were available for work, approximately 00:01 hours until 23:59 hrs. The only reason we didn't get programmed for doing something at midnight was 00:00 looked odd on a timetable.

The practise parade was all us hangers on and ne'er do wells of course - the orficers joined in to later practises, The chap detailed to carry the standard didn't actually have the old standard with him, that being considered a fairly sacred object, so he actually practised with a substitute - a grey bedcover from stores attached to what resembled nothing more than a length of wood.... I don't think we ran to a broom handle, just a length of wood about an inch and a half across. When we'd all done a bit of that 'mincing in time' stuff, as you do, we'd all end up formed up in so many ranks, standing very still and wishing, like horses, we could doze off while upright. The command 'march on the squadron standard' would then see the standard bearer and his escort march up to join the party.... accompanied by our own muttered 'march on the Squadron blanket' I might add.

Funny bit was the station band - pipes and drums, being Scotland - they only joined us for the last rehearsal or two, we'd done 3 or 4 by then and could often march in roughly the same direction. Then we tried it while the band played. Quick march time 120 paces per minute. Band playing maybe 90? Bedlam - we're all trying to coordinate the left right business as 120, while the band is, essentially, going l-e-f-t-r-i-g-h-t and the beat is sending the marching bananas...... SWO has fit, grabs band geezer (pipe major is I believe the official name) and asks him wtf they are playing at.
'We always play at this speed sir' comes the reply. SWO realises he now has to work extra at getting both the band AND the parade
to march at the same speed. I DID mention that bit about 00:01 to 23:59, didn't I? Oh how we all enjoyed staying there even longer....

Came the day. We'd practised a parade outside most, but also a couple inside a hangar in case of bad weather. 'The weather will be dry' says the met man, so an outdoor parade is arranged. HRH being the honorary air commodore at RAF Kinloss he is going to fly in, we'll all march around a bit, he'll hand over a new blanket, sorry, standard, we'll all march off. It's a bit like when you are caught in a trap and have to gnaw your arm off to get free - bloody painful and slow, but eventually you find there's just a few bits left to go and hope sets in.

It poured down. We'd all been rigorously checked over a week or two earlier, many of us had brand new number one uniforms on, what we didn't have on was raincoats, because the met man said it wouldn't rain. 'Whoever' decided it was too late to swap into the hangar as well, so we paraded in driving rain. Then HRH was delayed, so we stood in the rain for an hour. I for one was shivering mightily by the time our parade even started.

He inspected the troops. Walking along the front row he saw I had a falklands medal on amongst a sea of guys with the desert storm medal - odd one out - 'did you get that with this lot?'
'No your highness, I was on 120'
'Oh'

Not much of a conversation was it?

Eventually we got back to the squadron building, stuck on the side of a hangar, grabbed coffee, tried to warm up, hung our uniform tunics everywhere we could to try to dry them a bit. After a while we had to get it all back on and head to the Sgts' mess, we were all programmed to do pre lunch drinks with him. At the mess we all headed to the drying room - this was a big room with hot water pipes running through, when you lived in the mess you'd do your washing in the machines next door then hang your stuff in the drying room to dry off. After half an hour or so we were told he was on the way, go get your gear on. By now the tunics were largely dry. Guess what happens when you dry out a soaking wet - I mean absolutely drenched, it was raining very heavily - wool based uniform tunic? These had all been gone over rigorously to ensure a good fit of course, all of us personally inspected (one by one yet) by the SWO a fortnight or so earlier.

I got into my slim fit tunic reasonably well, I could even do the buttons up and breathe in it. Others weren't as forgiving. So as we all stood around the ante room, one pint (issued free) of 'yellow or brown beer' to choice, with strict instructions not to neck it, and chatted to our mates as we waited for the arrival. One guy I was nattering to was on the same crew, to protect his identity I'll call him 'Adrian', which is only fair, as that was his name. Adrian was a very very funny guy, a tiny bit chubby - not overly so, just not a racing snake shall we say - and he was generally heading out of the RAF quite soon so I was impressed he hadn't just gone sick to avoid the rain. HRH arrived. He had a few officers in tow, station commander, squadron boss, that sort of thing, no doubt the mess president was there too, the odd ADC type, maybe half a dozen mostly senior ranks, all a bit fascinated to be seeing a herd of NCO's all together in the wild like. Moving through the crowd HRH wanders up, glances around, spies Adrian, and says.....

Now, from this point on, I must admit I remember the words imperfectly, I may get one or two wrong, but I swear this is actually as accurate as my memory allows, and more importantly the tone of the exchange and the gist of the exchange are absolutely spot on. Nothing has been altered for dramatic effect, I promise. The general tone of the conversation was 'friendly banter', both participants were in good humour. The NCOs hearing the exchange were also in good humour, both before and after. The officers? ....

HRH: You're a bit porky aren't you?
Adrian:: Could be worse, I could be a bloody greek.

They both grinned hugely, I for one almost pissed myself. The station commander and the other escorts could, I think, see their careers ending before their eyes and blanched to a man. Their colour returned after a brief pause when they realised it was all in fun and HRH was happy with it.

I saw it as revenge for getting us all wet.

After that my own part?
'Hello'
'Hello your highness'

- I always seem to lose out on the best dialogue.

Long story. no particular point, but then I had nothing better to say so what the hell?
Dave
 

Attachments

  • 17_apr_full.xlsx
    78.4 KB · Views: 11
Last edited:

davejb

Mare
Report for : 16/04/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/7 Odds: 3.5 (Return: 4.5)
Mkt filter 1/5 Odds: 3.5 (Return: 4.5)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/6 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 6/20 Odds: 4.0 4.0 0.4 6.5 1.2 2.5 (Return: 24.6)
Mkt filter 4/10 Odds: 4.0 0.4 6.5 1.2 (Return: 16.1)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/10 Odds: 0.44 2.25 0.8 (Return: 6.49)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 2.25 (Return: 3.25)

Total Out = 43 Total return (raw) = 35.59
Total wins: 10 / 43
List of winners:
Bat 19:40:00 Mumtaaz (IRE) 4.5
Ayr 13:00:00 Stepney Causeway 1.44
Ayr 14:05:00 Slanelough (IRE) 5.0
Ayr 15:50:00 Torigni (FR) 5.0
Fon 16:10:00 Diligent (FR) 1.4
Bal 16:20:00 Dreamingandhoping (IRE) 3.25
Exe 17:20:00 Stay Out Of Court (IRE) 7.5
Bal 17:30:00 Zoffanien (IRE) 2.2
Exe 18:20:00 Generation Gap (IRE) 3.5
Exe 19:20:00 Chase Me (IRE) 1.8

Really ought to have got more back from that!

Today's selections both completed their races unharmed. Neither of them bothered the judge.
Good job I'm backing the picks instead.... and tomorrow we have some.


Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Tramore 15:48:00 [NH C] [21.5f] Hcap [[11] run]
10/11 Runners rated
104 * 1160902 Game Of War (IRE) (Bf 5) Drawn 0/11 Gelding
Bromhead Henry De 3-37(9) Blackmore Rachael 4-37(15) Days : 21

Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/1 3Fav
WR% = 67.0


Picks:
1618686558137.png

Dave
 

Attachments

  • 18_apr_full.xlsx
    89.5 KB · Views: 2

davejb

Mare
Report for : 17/04/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/15 Odds: 3.5 (Return: 4.5)
Mkt filter 1/11 Odds: 3.5 (Return: 4.5)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/8 Odds: 0.73 (Return: 1.73)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 0.73 (Return: 1.73)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/5 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 30 Total return (raw) = 6.23
Total wins: 2 / 30
List of winners:
Thi 12:10:00 Highjacked 4.5
Not 16:40:00 Meng Tian 1.73

Dreadful. Bear in mind that the flat database of races is pretty thin as yet - as time goes by and more runners get a run, and even better more of them get a second or third run in, then I'd hope to see some better results. Meantime I'm sticking with the picks.

Today;
The sole selection fell. I'm not following these, to be honest they're not doing anything like as well as the picks and I'll probably stop posting these soon as they're not contributing much any more.

picks:
Only one winner, and that was at 2/5, there were two others that came 4th at 8/1 and 3rd at 9/1 (I have noticed that the longer priced picks often place at decent odds, I'm not much given to EW betting but it might be profitable with some of these), and the final pick was a non runner.


Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Limerick 14:45:00 [NH H] [19f] Stks [[16] run]
9/19 Runners rated
86 * 143220 Captain Kangaroo (IRE) (Bf 2.5) Drawn 0/16 Gelding
Mullins W P 4-22(3) Mullins Mr P W 2-13(8) Days : 31

Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 4/5 1Fav
WR% = 35.0

Pontefract 15:30:00 [Flat] Class 5 [6f] Stks [[8] run]
3/8 Runners rated
66 * 36532 Scarlet Bear (IRE) (Bf 2.1) Drawn 3/8 Filly
Jarvis W 0-0(0) Shoemark Kieran 4-34(11) Days : 212 !!! ALERT !!!
dst or
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
Flat non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 8/13 1Fav
WR% = 33.0

Limerick 15:45:00 [NH H] [19f] Hcap [[16] run]
18/19 Runners rated
66 * 0157052 Amlad (IRE) (Bf 3.5) Drawn 0/16 Gelding
McNamara Andrew 0-6(1) Blackmore Rachael 4-37(15) Days : 27

Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 3/1 2Fav
WR% = 5.0

Tramore 16:35:00 [NH H] [16f] Stks [[13] run]
6/16 Runners rated
93 * 2332 Don Diablo (IRE) (Bf 2.38) Drawn 0/13 Gelding
Foster Mrs Denise 2-31(4) Kennedy J W 2-28(9) Days : 65
gng dst jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET Evs 1Fav
WR% = 17.0

Kempton AW 17:20:00 [NH C] Class 5 [20.5f] Stks [[6] run]
3/6 Runners rated
85 * 0P46851 Adrien Du Pont (FR) (Bf 1.2) Drawn 0/6 Gelding
Nicholls P F 11-47(11) Biddick Mr W 0-2(1) Days : 24
OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 1/3 1Fav
WR% = 15.0

Limerick 17:25:00 [NH H] [22f] Hcap [[15] run]
16/18 Runners rated
72 * 08475 Call Me Merry (IRE) (Bf 999) Drawn 0/15 Mare
Cashman P F 0-2(0) 0-0(0) Days : 10

Passes: Odds
Fails: Form Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 4/5 1Fav
WR% = 5.0

Kempton AW 17:50:00 [NH H] Class 4 [16f] Stks [[9] run]
6/9 Runners rated
66 * 8011654 Seinesational (Bf 2.75) Drawn 0/9 Gelding
Newland Dr R D P 0-11(6) Twiston-Davies Sam 3-33(12) Days : 22

Passes: Odds
Fails: Form Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 15/8 2Fav
WR% = 15.0

As I said above, I've rather lost interest in these, they don't win often enough any more.

Picks:
1618780848071.png

Looking at the second one of these I see that only half the field are rated. However, as a forecast 1/6 favourite I think it's safe to make 2 assumptions - 1 the unrated runners are unlikely to be a significant problem unless ADP decides to whack a few fences as he goes around, and 2) He isn't going to be worth betting on anyway, unless you are putting a huge sum on him at least - and frankly anyone who does bet huge amounts and does so on the basis of the musings of a largely anonymous forumite really ought to go seek counselling rather than racing selections.

Dave
 

Attachments

  • 19_apr_full.xlsx
    100 KB · Views: 1

davejb

Mare
Report for : 18/04/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/9 Odds: 6.5 (Return: 7.5)
Mkt filter 1/5 Odds: 6.5 (Return: 7.5)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/7 Odds: 16.0 (Return: 17.0)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/19 Odds: 3.0 2.5 (Return: 7.5)
Mkt filter 2/12 Odds: 3.0 2.5 (Return: 7.5)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/10 Odds: 0.4 1.1 1.38 (Return: 5.88)
Mkt filter 3/5 Odds: 0.4 1.1 1.38 (Return: 5.88)

Total Out = 45 Total return (raw) = 37.88
Total wins: 7 / 45
List of winners:
Dun 16:40:00 Fit For Function 7.5
Dun 17:15:00 Iva Batt (IRE) 17.0
Str 12:15:00 Furius De Ciergues (FR) 4.0
Win 14:15:00 Get The Appeal (IRE) 3.5
Win 14:50:00 Casa Loupi 1.4
Ayr 15:00:00 Allmankind 2.1
Win 15:25:00 Le Chiffre Dor (FR) 2.38

A bit better, thank goodness.
Selections: a 1/5 second kicked off, the W1/2,3rd,3rd,W2/5,NR, 2nd - I am going to stop these now, as they've served their purpose and were based on the old ratings. They worked well for a few weeks at a time, but overall I think they probably just bounced around without ever showing a decent return - at best they ensured ther betting bank didn't fall too quickly!

Picks:
Only two here, and one won at 2/5 while the other came 4th. Very quiet again - the odds on winners have kept the win rate up but the profit is down to about 18-19% now. I'm quite hopeful for tomorrow though, as there are 3 sprint qualifiers and on past performance one of them winning at nice odds would not be out of the ordinary.

1618858449817.png

Gunnerside was a pick 5 days ago, he ran 2nd (10/11 favourite over a furlong further) so I'd hope for our revenge tomorrow - that probably also means his price won't be all that great mind.

Dave
 

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  • 20_apr_full.xlsx
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davejb

Mare
Report for : 19/04/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/10 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/7 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/3 Odds: 0.5 (Return: 1.5)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 0.5 (Return: 1.5)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/16 Odds: 2.25 2.25 2.75 (Return: 10.25)
Mkt filter 2/9 Odds: 2.25 2.75 (Return: 7.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 5/18 Odds: 0.33 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.0 (Return: 7.13)
Mkt filter 5/11 Odds: 0.33 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.0 (Return: 7.13)

Total Out = 47 Total return (raw) = 18.88
Total wins: 9 / 47
List of winners:
Pon 15:30:00 Scarlet Bear (IRE) 1.5
Lim 13:45:00 Global Equity (IRE) 1.33
Hex 15:52:00 Bob And Co (FR) 1.2
Mar 17:00:00 Ripper Roo (FR) 1.2
Kem 17:20:00 Adrien Du Pont (FR) 1.4
Mar 18:00:00 Giovanni Change (FR) 3.25
Kem 18:20:00 Mortens Leam 3.25
Tra 19:10:00 Winged Leader (IRE) 2.0
Mar 19:30:00 Made For You 3.75

I demand better odds! 5 odds on favourites there, one more at evens - pfff!

Today's picks managed 2 wins from the 4 runners, and as I got 4/5 on the first of them I didn't miss out on the odds on winner for a change. Overall though the total profit on 4 pts bet was a massive 0.38 I think at SP, so better than losing but a bit short of what we're after really!

Tomorrow's pick list - no sprinters sadly, so these will probably all be a bit short in the market
1618951357030.png

Okay, Ripper Roo is a non runner, the other three are currently 11/8, 11/10 and 13/2 on Betfair, so if Alohamora wins it'll be a good day, if not then it'll be a day were breaking even is probably as good as it'll get. Still, only 3 pts to go out and the picks are still making a little profit more often than not.

Dave
 

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  • 21_apr_full.xlsx
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davejb

Mare
Report for : 20/04/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 5/26 Odds: 3.5 0.62 9.0 1.75 2.75 (Return: 22.62)
Mkt filter 4/14 Odds: 3.5 0.62 1.75 2.75 (Return: 12.62)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/15 Odds: 1.25 0.53 1.38 1.88 (Return: 9.04)
Mkt filter 1/4 Odds: 0.53 (Return: 1.53)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/6 Odds: 5.0 (Return: 6.0)
Mkt filter 1/5 Odds: 5.0 (Return: 6.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 48 Total return (raw) = 37.66
Total wins: 10 / 48
List of winners:
Yar 13:20:00 Coverham (IRE) 4.5
Yar 16:10:00 Lochanthem 2.25
Yar 16:45:00 Royal Fleet 1.53
Wol 17:20:00 Gunnerside (IRE) 1.62
Sou 18:30:00 Cold Harbour 10.0
Sou 19:30:00 Dark Side Prince 2.75
Tip 19:40:00 Morph Speed (IRE) 3.75
Wol 19:50:00 Stylish Performer (IRE) 2.38
Sou 20:00:00 Barneys Bay 2.88
Sed 13:30:00 Valence DAumont (FR) 6.0

Still running at 75% then.
Today there were three picks, they all lost. Damn. The final one at Dundalk, Alohanora, was about 7/1 at lunchtime but went off at 14/1, so not much fancied then! Ran fairly decently to be honest, ended up 4th.
I know I was expecting things to go off the boil while the flat got going, and I also accepted that as and when turf flat picks start to pop up they might not do any good - my backup plan is to just go with the AW if that happens, then see if the NH picks do any good when that gets going in the autumn - but I'm still disappointed not to be registering a decent profit every single day!

Tomorrow's picks -

1619035702950.png

I'll be quite disappointed not to get any winners out of these three.
Dave
 

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  • 22_apr_full.xlsx
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davejb

Mare
Report for : 21/04/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/17 Odds: 1.5 (Return: 2.5)
Mkt filter 1/7 Odds: 1.5 (Return: 2.5)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/7 Odds: 0.22 1.38 1.75 (Return: 6.35)
Mkt filter 2/2 Odds: 0.22 1.38 (Return: 3.6)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/15 Odds: 3.0 0.73 (Return: 5.73)
Mkt filter 2/11 Odds: 3.0 0.73 (Return: 5.73)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/7 Odds: 0.17 (Return: 1.17)
Mkt filter 1/5 Odds: 0.17 (Return: 1.17)

Total Out = 46 Total return (raw) = 15.75
Total wins: 7 / 46
List of winners:
Cat 14:50:00 Queens Sargent (FR) 2.5
Lin 16:35:00 Polling Day (IRE) 1.22
Dun 16:50:00 Lord Gorgeous (IRE) 2.38
Dun 17:50:00 Belmont Avenue (IRE) 2.75
Lud 13:00:00 Tinnahalla (IRE) 1.17
Per 15:00:00 Fortescue 4.0
Tau 19:00:00 Mystic Court (IRE) 1.73

Still rather mediocre lately, roll on May/June...

Picks today did okay, thank goodness - winners at 5/2 and 7/4, the 5/2 shot was 3/1 earlier, and a bit unlucky that the third one of the trio - Breath of Joy - didn't quite get up when running 3/4l second at 3/1... that would have been even nicer! On the whole, not unexpectedly I guess, the past two or three weeks has been a case of 2 steps forward, 2 steps back, no significant gains in the returns and no losses - one day we're up, another down, and overall the ban just sits there not changing a great deal. Hopefully this is a positive, as having expected a period of transition while the flat gets going then maybe things could perk up in a few weeks time, when enough flat ratings exist to give a good basis to bet on. It's slow going though, a week seems like a long long time.....

No picks for tomorrow.

Dave
 

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  • 23_apr_full.xlsx
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davejb

Mare
Report for : 22/04/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/10 Odds: 1.2 2.5 1.75 (Return: 8.45)
Mkt filter 3/7 Odds: 1.2 2.5 1.75 (Return: 8.45)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/16 Odds: 11.0 1.75 (Return: 14.75)
Mkt filter 1/11 Odds: 11.0 (Return: 12.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/11 Odds: 0.44 1.2 1.25 (Return: 5.89)
Mkt filter 2/3 Odds: 0.44 1.2 (Return: 3.64)

Total Out = 41 Total return (raw) = 29.09
Total wins: 8 / 41
List of winners:
Bev 15:15:00 Blu Boy (IRE) 2.2
Che 19:15:00 Murhib (IRE) 3.5
Che 19:45:00 Heaven Forfend 2.75
War 13:00:00 Sopran Thor (FR) 1.44
Kil 15:20:00 Not Available (IRE) 2.2
Kil 15:55:00 Irregularheartbeat (IRE) 12.0
Exe 17:55:00 Ernesto (GER) 2.25
Exe 18:25:00 Gallow Ford (IRE) 2.75

Continuing to wait for the Flat ratings I'm afraid....

No picks today, but there are two for tomorrow:
1619205223187.png

The 232/233 bit is just a count of how many picks there have been so far by the way.

Dave
 

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  • 24_apr_full.xlsx
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davejb

Mare
Report for : 23/04/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/15 Odds: 2.25 3.33 (Return: 7.58)
Mkt filter 2/9 Odds: 2.25 3.33 (Return: 7.58)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/9 Odds: 0.5 (Return: 1.5)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 0.5 (Return: 1.5)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/14 Odds: 2.0 1.38 (Return: 5.38)
Mkt filter 2/10 Odds: 2.0 1.38 (Return: 5.38)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 7/16 Odds: 0.67 1.2 0.62 1.0 1.38 0.62 6.0 (Return: 18.49)
Mkt filter 3/6 Odds: 1.0 1.38 0.62 (Return: 6.0)

Total Out = 54 Total return (raw) = 32.95
Total wins: 12 / 54
List of winners:
San 13:15:00 Nelson Gay (IRE) 3.25
Cor 13:55:00 Kailash (IRE) 1.5
Cor 15:05:00 Vocito (IRE) 4.33
Per 13:30:00 Allavina (IRE) 1.67
Kil 16:25:00 The Cathal Don (IRE) 2.2
Per 16:50:00 Maliboo (IRE) 3.0
Per 17:20:00 Imperial Storm (IRE) 1.62
Kil 17:25:00 An Taibhse (IRE) 2.0
Che 17:35:00 Gran Luna (FR) 2.38
Kil 17:55:00 Buddy Rich (IRE) 1.62
Che 19:05:00 Kauto The King (FR) 2.38
Che 20:05:00 Right Of Reply (IRE) 7.0

Good few there at least.
Today's picks both lost sadly.
None for tomorrow - short post for me then!

Dave
 

Attachments

  • 25_apr_full.xlsx
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davejb

Mare
Report for : 24/04/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 4/30 Odds: 1.1 2.0 1.0 4.0 (Return: 12.1)
Mkt filter 3/22 Odds: 1.1 1.0 4.0 (Return: 9.1)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 7/12 Odds: 1.1 1.5 1.2 0.2 0.18 0.3 0.53 (Return: 12.01)
Mkt filter 5/9 Odds: 1.1 0.2 0.18 0.3 0.53 (Return: 7.31)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/4 Odds: 3.0 (Return: 4.0)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 3.0 (Return: 4.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/3 Odds: 6.5 (Return: 7.5)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 49 Total return (raw) = 35.61
Total wins: 13 / 49
List of winners:
Lei 13:00:00 Bellarena Lady 2.1
Lim 13:15:00 Corps Des Pages (IRE) 2.5
Lei 14:10:00 Pogo (IRE) 2.2
Hay 14:15:00 Dhushan (IRE) 1.2
Lei 14:45:00 Dancing King (IRE) 2.1
Rip 15:50:00 Rajinsky (IRE) 3.0
Rip 17:00:00 Artistic Rifles (IRE) 2.0
Rip 17:35:00 Dubawi Sands 1.18
Wol 17:45:00 Irish Admiral (IRE) 1.3
Don 19:30:00 Gale Force Maya 5.0
Wol 19:45:00 Equality 1.53
San 15:05:00 Greaneteen (FR) 7.5
San 16:50:00 Belargus (FR) 4.0

How many winners does it take?
No picks today, but tomorrow there are a good few -

1619378440200.png

Note that the last two are both in the same race. My normal rule on this is back both at 1pt win if a profit will be made should one of them win. Currently the RP card is showing them both as 3/1 joint favourites, so that'd be 2 out 4 back and I'd back both - although it'll depend what the odds are when I go to put my bets on tomorrow.

Dave
 

Attachments

  • 26_apr_full.xlsx
    83.1 KB · Views: 1

davejb

Mare
Report for : 25/04/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/15 Odds: 5.5 (Return: 6.5)
Mkt filter 1/9 Odds: 5.5 (Return: 6.5)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/10 Odds: 0.91 (Return: 1.91)
Mkt filter 1/5 Odds: 0.91 (Return: 1.91)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 25 Total return (raw) = 8.41
Total wins: 2 / 25
List of winners:
Sal 15:30:00 Serenas Queen (IRE) 1.91
Sal 17:00:00 Tajdid (FR) 6.5

I hate sunday racing, it may be I'm imagining things but the worst results always seem to come on Sundays.

Today there were 6 bets, including the two in the 5.15 that were up against each other. The first three lost, although Equidae (4th) was in a blanket finish for 2nd at 18/1 so I can't say that was too bad a run. Sociologist won at 9/4 (11/4 earlier) and the two in the 5.15 finished 1st and third, with the winner at 5/2 (7/2 earlier). On SP that's a small profit of 0.75 pts, although if you got on when I did that increased to +2 or thereabouts. Not a fortune, but still better than losing!

picks tomorrow:
1619463952036.png

Monkfish will probably be favourite, it will be interesting to see if Envoi Allen can beat him with the stellar Rachel Blackmore on board - one to watch, even if there are only 4 runners! (£59k to the winner, you'd think the place money would attract at least a couple more to try their luck).

Dave
 

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  • 27_apr_full.xlsx
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