• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
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    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
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  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
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    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


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Early days

davejb

Mare
I never noticed, I'm still hungover from the 150 page party.
Thanks for the encouragement, as soon as I've got my ace detective, Limpy McCoy (no relation), to shut down the gambling gang I'm sure things will pick up again.
Dave
 

davejb

Mare
Report for : 04/04/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/5 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 4/14 Odds: 2.25 9.0 2.13 1.75 (Return: 19.13)
Mkt filter 2/10 Odds: 2.25 2.13 (Return: 6.38)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/17 Odds: 2.5 (Return: 3.5)
Mkt filter 0/5 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 37 Total return (raw) = 22.63
Total wins: 5 / 37
List of winners:
Mar 13:10:00 Sorbet 3.5
Plu 13:56:00 En Coeur (FR) 3.25
Mar 14:10:00 Giovanni Change (FR) 10.0
Plu 14:56:00 Manofthemoment (IRE) 3.13
Plu 16:00:00 Diligent (FR) 2.75

Fairly drab there, you could expect that I suppose as the selections/picks did so poorly there was every likelihood that the daily ratings weren't scoring highly.

Today's selections:
W11/8, NR, W5/6 (so no bet), 5th 20/1 - that last one was Senpo in the Irish Grand National, so anyone betting on him would hopefully have got an EW place return if going with one of the bookies offering 6 places or whatever. Picking one for the Irish or Aintree GN is not for the faint hearted....

Today's picks:
There were two in the first race, and the rule here is to back both if a profit will be made should either win - no fiddling with stakes etc. I got 3/1 and 4/1 on them, Zawela won at 2/1 (SP) so a profit was duly made. Two nowhere's, a 2nd, a 3rd, and two other winners at 7/1 and 13/8 rounded out a pretty decent day. 7 out, 13.63 back.


Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Exeter 13:45:00 [NH C] Class 4 [19f] Hcap [[8] run]
3/8 Runners rated
96 * 967F552 Theatre Mix (Bf 6) Drawn 0/8 Mare
Plessis Miss J Du 0-4(0) Best J A 1-26(5) Days : 28
gng dst jck
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/4 1Fav
WR% = 15.0

Exeter 14:50:00 [NH H] Class 3 [17f] Hcap [[5] run]
5/5 Runners rated
86 * 2271 Art Approval (FR) (Bf 2.5) Drawn 0/5 Gelding
OBrien Fergal 5-39(12) Brennan P J 5-31(16) Days : 80
gng dst jck OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 6/4 1Fav
WR% = 15.0

Bath 16:10:00 [Flat] Class 5 [11.5f] Stks [[4] run]
3/4 Runners rated
60 * 245232 Golden Flame (IRE) (Bf 1.91) Drawn 4/4 Colt
Johnston M 8-43(12) Kirby Adam 3-17(6) Days : 7
gng dst or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
Flat non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 5/4 1Fav
WR% = rtgs

Pick list:

1617653448030.png

Note that two of today's three runners again came from the (***) selections, mind you the 7/1 winner was a *** runner. Tomorrow all three are *** which are supposed to be shorter priced but with a better win rate, in reality that has not turned out to be the case. So far the *** and (***) selections combined, ie the ones I actually bet on if the odds are okay, are showing 189.47 back from 168 staked, win rate 36.36%, profit 15% (rounded). Taking the (***) runners on their own we have 89.36 back from 48 staked, 38% win rate, 86% profit - note that the early gains with these were pretty big so the profit figure is declining steadily - 100%+ profit being a bit hard to sustain!

Sensibly I might decide just to back the (***) qualifiers and increase the stake - ie how much a point is worth - but that would leave me with far fewer bets and, while both processes show a profit, there is every reason to back all qualifiers regardless of which list they go into. I could increase stakes quite reasonably at this point I think, but I'm in this for the long haul and by keeping the stakes low I'm making this a stress free experience! If I needed the cash it'd be different, but then if I needed the cash that much I'd be better off getting a job..... no, don't fancy that, I retired 4 years ago and I'm definitely not in better shape now than I was then! The *** list is definitely not producing the returns I was hoping for, and it may come to the point where I shut that list down and perhaps look for another angle - I am definitely finding AW racing more of a draw these days.

Regular readers will perhaps note that after I explained my thoughts on the possibility of a criminal, Dick Francis inspired race fixing gang being at work, I also said that if if they had read my thoughts as expressed last night then they might back off and we'd see a few winners today. Well, isn't that exactly what happened? I shall now redouble my attempts to spot the limping ex jockey turned private eye, the fat bloke boss hoodlum with the flash car and even flashier young dyed blonde wife, and the blackmailed but essentially honest young trainer with the appealing wife. Anybody visiting a track in the future feel free to report possible sightings, this gang needs to be nailed fast! To help find them remember that they usually torture the limping P.I. under the stands after racing, using rather blunt methods, so if you see any assorted henchmen carrying things like stirrup pumps, rubber body bags, pickaxe handles, angle grinders and ropes/chains and follow them they should lead you right to the spot... do NOT approach them however, just take a few photos and leave, then phone the authorities. The chief steward is usually the ex father in law of the limping jockey chap.

Dave
 

Attachments

  • 06_apr_full.xlsx
    54.7 KB · Views: 3

davejb

Mare
Report for : 05/04/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 6/16 Odds: 3.0 2.0 7.0 5.5 1.63 2.5 (Return: 27.63)
Mkt filter 6/8 Odds: 3.0 2.0 7.0 5.5 1.63 2.5 (Return: 27.63)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/7 Odds: 0.91 0.36 3.0 (Return: 7.27)
Mkt filter 3/3 Odds: 0.91 0.36 3.0 (Return: 7.27)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 5/17 Odds: 9.0 1.38 14.0 3.33 2.25 (Return: 34.96)
Mkt filter 4/10 Odds: 9.0 1.38 14.0 3.33 (Return: 31.71)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/10 Odds: 0.4 0.14 0.25 0.83 (Return: 5.62)
Mkt filter 2/2 Odds: 0.14 0.83 (Return: 2.97)

Total Out = 50 Total return (raw) = 75.48
Total wins: 18 / 50
List of winners:
Red 13:10:00 Headingley (IRE) 1.91
Wol 13:20:00 One Step Beyond (IRE) 4.0
Red 13:40:00 Ilzaeem (FR) 1.36
Wol 13:55:00 Zwelela (FR) 3.0
Wol 14:30:00 Vanity Affair (IRE) 8.0
Red 14:50:00 Danielsflyer (IRE) 6.5
Kem 16:02:00 Lavenders Blue (IRE) 4.0
Wol 16:10:00 Dirty Rascal (IRE) 2.63
Red 17:07:00 London Eye (USA) 3.5
Che 13:30:00 Fact Flow (IRE) 10.0
Che 14:00:00 Brewers Project (IRE) 1.4
Plu 14:10:00 Casa Loupi 1.14
Che 14:35:00 Saturn n Silk 1.25
Plu 14:45:00 Aheadfullofdreams (IRE) 2.38
Plu 15:20:00 Mawlood (IRE) 15.0
Cor 16:05:00 Wrong Direction (IRE) 1.83
Che 16:15:00 Lex Talionis (IRE) 4.33
Plu 16:55:00 Fairway Freddy (IRE) 3.25

The profit is only just over 50%, but otherwise that looks like one hell of a day doesn't it? 18 winners including a 14/1, a 7/1 and a 9/1.... not at all bad really, no wonder the picks and selections did okay yesterday.

the trend continues today really, the selections came in at o, W10/11, W1/3 which was okay but not spectacular, while all three of the picks won at 10/11, 11/10 and 2/1 - I missed the first one as Falberto was 1/2 on betfair when I went to back them, and I wasn't around for the race being run so I never saw the price go into betting territory - I have missed the odd winning bet with the picks as time has gone by, but things are still generally good so I'm not complaining. Interestingly enough the two lists I run are now almost neck and neck for win rate, 38% v 38.1% currently, but the sprints list is way ahead on profit of course being at something close to 90% profit still. The non sprint list profit, thanks to today, climbed back up to 17%, let's hope it climbs higher yet. Is it all down to the limping detective I wonder?

Only one in the selections for tomorrow -
Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Nottingham 15:40:00 [Flat] Class 3 [5f] Stks [[6] run]
6/7 Runners rated
82 * 621343 Burning Cash (IRE) (Bf 3.5) Drawn 4/6 Gelding
Midgley P T 0-16(6) Harley M 2-13(5) Days : 180 !!! ALERT !!!
dst or
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
Flat non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 9/4 2Fav
WR% = 13.0

- but just look at the pick list!

1617739932107.png

9 bets there, unless there are some up against odds on shots, or badly odds on themselves. Anyone interested in just the sprints selections they're the ones with the (***) in the penultimate column, although the 7f ones tend to be less great than the 5/6f, and only one of the 4 'sprint' picks isn't at 7f.

Let's hope for another good day.

Dave
 

Attachments

  • 07_apr_full.xlsx
    464.7 KB · Views: 10

davejb

Mare
Report for : 06/04/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/17 Odds: 3.0 1.1 2.0 (Return: 9.1)
Mkt filter 3/10 Odds: 3.0 1.1 2.0 (Return: 9.1)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/7 Odds: 0.44 5.0 0.33 3.33 (Return: 13.1)
Mkt filter 2/4 Odds: 0.44 0.33 (Return: 2.77)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/5 Odds: 7.5 0.91 (Return: 10.41)
Mkt filter 2/5 Odds: 7.5 0.91 (Return: 10.41)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/2 Odds: 0.91 (Return: 1.91)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 0.91 (Return: 1.91)

Total Out = 31 Total return (raw) = 34.52
Total wins: 10 / 31
List of winners:
Pon 14:30:00 Bickerstaffe 4.0
Pon 15:30:00 Spycatcher (IRE) 1.44
Bat 15:40:00 Marlay Park 6.0
Bat 16:10:00 Golden Flame (IRE) 1.33
Che 17:00:00 Buxted Too 4.33
Che 19:00:00 Count Of Amazonia (IRE) 2.1
Che 20:00:00 Morlaix 3.0
Exe 14:20:00 Steal A March 8.5
Exe 14:50:00 Art Approval (FR) 1.91
Exe 16:20:00 Falberto (FR) 1.91

Up a little bit again, that's nice.
Today's selection was Burning Cash, 3.40 at Nottingham, he came 2nd at 7/1 by a length and a half. An unusually big price for most of the selections.
The picks - 2nd, 3rd, 0,0, W6/4, W16/5, 2nd,0,0 so far, I had the first winner at 9/4 so total loss on the day was not much at all, at SP it's -2.30

Winners at Lingfield haven't been that thick on the ground, 5-24 so far, and losing about 8 pts from the 24 staked, so I might have to take a bit of a look at this. Chelmsford is 7-17and about 13 pts up, Southwell comes in at 9-20 and maybe 2pts profit, Wolverhampton 10-35 and near enough breakeven, while Newcastle is 7-20 and 7 pts or so up.
That leaves the jumpers winning 30-61 for about 13 profit, compared to the AW runners (handicap and non handicap) producing 38-116 for 14 profit. Obviously the win rate and profit% is better with the jumpers, but as I've said before while both are showing a profit why not carry on. It stands to reason that the jumpers are going to be thin on the ground for a while from the very near future, and when the summer jumps starts up there'll probably be a while before they start getting going and producing anything much, so we'll just have to see how the flat pans out - there's not been a flat 'pick' as yet, and we'll need a few before we can assess whether this process is okay on the turf flat.

Onto tomorrow then:-

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Aintree 13:45:00 [NH C] Grade 1 [20f] Stks [[7] run]
7/7 Runners rated
128 * P011P12 Fusil Raffles (FR) (Bf 3.5) Drawn 0/7 Gelding
Henderson N J 6-32(11) Jacob Daryl 4-22(8) Days : 21
gng DST JCK
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/4 2Fav
WR% = 17.0

Taunton 14:00:00 [NH H] Class 4 [19f] Hcap [[11] run]
10/11 Runners rated
77 * 6029461 Blazing Saddles (Bf 5.5) Drawn 0/11 Gelding
Scott J 3-13(4) Griffiths Matt 0-8(1) Days : 24
JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/1 3Fav
WR% = 12.0

Taunton 15:05:00 [NH H] Class 5 [16.5f] Hcap [[12] run]
10/12 Runners rated
68 * 7766 An Tailliur (FR) (Bf 6.5) Drawn 0/12 Gelding
ONeill Jonjo 3-18(9) Kennedy W T 1-15(4) Days : 35
Passes: Stable Odds
Fails: Form
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/1 3Fav
WR% = 12.0

Taunton 15:40:00 [NH H] Class 3 [24f] Hcap [[6] run]
4/6 Runners rated
88 * 22531 Lady Kk (IRE) (Bf 2.63) Drawn 0/6 Mare
Scott J 3-13(4) Dingle Rex 1-11(3) Days : 7
jck
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/8 1Fav
WR% = 12.0

Southwell AW 16:25:00 [AW] Class 6 [5f] Stks [[8] run]
8/8 Runners rated
48 * 4462421 Brandy Station (IRE) (Bf 3.25) Drawn 3/8 Gelding
Williamson Mrs L 1-5(1) Wheatley Zak 1-2(1) Days : 4
GNG DST JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
AW non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 2/1 1Fav
WR% = 25.0

Picks list:
1617821878409.png
Another longish list then.... I'd prefer if there were more like 5-6 usually, but as long as I don't end up with 30 a day to bet on I guess I'm okay with it.... the idea is to find the better bets from the top rated runners though, not back the lot.

Dave
 

Attachments

  • 08_apr_full.xlsx
    75.2 KB · Views: 12

davejb

Mare
Report for : 07/04/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/26 Odds: 1.5 3.0 (Return: 6.5)
Mkt filter 2/19 Odds: 1.5 3.0 (Return: 6.5)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/11 Odds: 1.0 1.5 2.25 3.33 (Return: 12.08)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 37 Total return (raw) = 18.58
Total wins: 6 / 37
List of winners:
Lin 13:00:00 Crimson Sand (IRE) 2.0
Cat 15:20:00 Seas Of Elzaam (IRE) 2.5
New 17:15:00 Bay Bridge 3.25
New 17:45:00 Rare Groove (IRE) 2.5
New 18:15:00 Lion Tower (IRE) 4.0
Gow 18:30:00 Fil The Power 4.33

Bit drab there sadly.
Today:
Selections PU, NR, 2nd, 3rd, W5/4 - so nothing inspiring there then, I'm glad I got the picks going, they're much more rewarding for me to bet on! The PU was Fusil Raffles who was bowling along in front, whacked a jump or two, and pulled up, not his finest hour sadly.

Picks - another day for a sluggish start and good finish, W10/11 to kick off but then an odds on 2nd (I got 11/10 earlier so backed him), 2nd - Little Boy Blue looked like winning but got beat nearly on the line after a furlong of hard head to head tussle, then a long odds on (30/100) winner I didn't bet on due to the odds. Cashel became a non runner and we were onto race 6 of 9 (8 bets incl a NR) with only a single winner to show for it, and although I'd also got Monmiral at 11/10 rather than the 10/11 SP it wasn't much of a day to this point, only for Eileen Dover to run 4th - also at 10/11. That left just the three races at Chelmsford, and it was rather nice to see all three win - 11/4, 13/2 and 13/8. Phew!
Overall 8 out 17.09 back, although that includes the 30/100 runner so my actual returns were a bit different due to getting slightly better odds once or twice, which I don't mind at all.

It feels like a Saturday to me, thanks to the racing on ITV this afternoon, although thanks to the icy wind we had a deserted beach for walking the dog (Carra the wonderdog - as in 'I wonder where he's having a nap just now then?') - which made it feel more like one of those 'the aliens landed and took everyone else' days for half an hour or so. If that happened would you even bother keeping track of the days I wonder? I suppose tomorrow will feel like another Saturday...


Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Aintree 14:50:00 [NH C] Grade 1 [25f] Stks [[8] run]
8/8 Runners rated
129 * 1131311 Chantry House (IRE) (Bf 2.5) Drawn 0/8 Gelding
Henderson N J 6-30(10) Boinville Nico 5-21(11) Days : 22
GNG JCK
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 6/4 1Fav
WR% = 17.0

Aintree 16:40:00 [NH H] Grade 1 [24.5f] Stks [[14] run]
15/15 Runners rated
121 * 3621113 Bravemansgame (FR) (Bf 2.75) Drawn 0/14 Gelding
Nicholls P F 11-29(8) Cobden Harry 12-40(19) Days : 23
gng JCK or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/4 1Fav
WR% = 17.0

Given the way Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden are doing right now that second one will be a bit shorter in price than he should be I suspect, but then you can't help seeing the combo as being at the top of their game right now. Not so sure about Nico and Nicky though for Chantry House, his horses haven't had a very good first day at Aintree, although to be fair some of them were a bit on the outsiderish side of the market. Buveur D'Air didn't perhaps get the best of runs but he ran out of oomph quickly towards the end of his race, his 22/1 stablemate Buzz took 2nd ahead of him so, mmmmm, rocks shoulders, makes hand gestures, I think the stable is operating a bit below peak at least. However, if you look at the top of the picks list ....

On with the pick list then -

1617911772853.png

... looks like my mind has been made up for me about Chantry House!

Let's see what tomorrow brings then, eh?
Dave
 

Attachments

  • 09_apr_full.xlsx
    77.1 KB · Views: 35

davejb

Mare
Report for : 08/04/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 5/12 Odds: 0.3 2.75 6.5 4.0 1.63 (Return: 20.18)
Mkt filter 5/9 Odds: 0.3 2.75 6.5 4.0 1.63 (Return: 20.18)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/7 Odds: 1.38 1.25 16.0 0.91 (Return: 23.54)
Mkt filter 3/3 Odds: 1.38 1.25 0.91 (Return: 6.54)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/6 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/5 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/9 Odds: 0.91 5.0 2.5 (Return: 11.41)
Mkt filter 2/5 Odds: 0.91 2.5 (Return: 5.41)

Total Out = 34 Total return (raw) = 55.13
Total wins: 12 / 34
List of winners:
Sou 14:10:00 Kehailaan (IRE) 2.38
Sou 15:50:00 Silver Shade (FR) 1.3
Sou 16:25:00 Brandy Station (IRE) 2.25
Gow 17:05:00 Stylistic Approach (IRE) 17.0
Che 18:20:00 Luna Wish 3.75
Che 18:50:00 Arlecchinos Arc (IRE) 1.91
Che 19:20:00 Murhib (IRE) 7.5
Gow 19:35:00 Merroir (IRE) 5.0
Che 19:50:00 Autumn Flight (IRE) 2.63
Ain 14:20:00 Monmiral (FR) 1.91
Ain 15:25:00 Abacadabras (FR) 6.0
Tau 17:30:00 Kandoo Kid (FR) 3.5

Probably need a good day, as I suspect today wasn't that stellar. I did spot a top rated rank outsider doing well in the 4.05 at Aintree (The Topham) Pink Eyed Pedro was well clear on ratings, and when I saw him at 50/1 earlier in the afternoon I thought he might be okay for an EW bet - but with so many 'picks' these days I decided not to. He was well back for much of the way but finished well and grabbed 2nd at 33/1,

Selections - Chantry House won at 11/8, Bravemansgame finished 2nd (and there was me fancying them the other way round).
Picks - only Chantry House won, 4 down the tubes - Steelriver didn't do badly at 20/1 to finish a couple of lengths back in 4th though.


Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Chepstow 12:30:00 [NH H] Class 4 [16f] Stks [[8] run]
5/8 Runners rated
83 * 372131 Getaway Luv (IRE) (Bf 1.57) Drawn 0/8 Gelding
Murphy Olly 4-22(7) Gregory Fergus 3-11(3) Days : 16
GNG DST JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 2/5 1Fav
WR% = 32.0

Chepstow 14:45:00 [NH C] Class 3 [23.5f] Hcap [[3] run]
2/3 Runners rated
88 * 18FPU22 Saint De Reve (FR) (Bf 1.8) Drawn 0/3 Gelding
Nicholls P F 15-38(9) Williams Lorcan 4-17(11) Days : 15
gng
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 8/13 1Fav
WR% = 19.0

Dundalk 14:50:00 [AW] [10.5f] Stks [[12] run]
5/12 Runners rated
60 * 3232 Umneyaat (IRE) (Bf 4) Drawn 5/12 Filly
Weld D K 2-19(2) Orr Oisin 0-22(4) Days : 176 !!! ALERT !!!
jck
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
AW non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 3/1 1Fav
WR% = 24.0

Aintree 15:35:00 [NH H] Grade 1 [24.5f] Stks [[15] run]
13/15 Runners rated
130 * 5241313 Roksana (IRE) (Bf 5.5) Drawn 0/15 Mare
Skelton Daniel 12-46(11) Skelton Harry 15-53(30) Days : 25
DST JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/2 3Fav
WR% = 19.0

The picks list:
1617997370612.png

I really do wish there were just 5 or 6 of these.... I won't be saying that if loads of them win of course.

For the Grand National - Look, I do tend to have a few of the sort of bets you'd associate with your granny for this race, it isn't a patch on the race I first watched (as a punter) in the 70's (Andy Pandy falling while zooming along in the lead miles ahead is still a painful memory) - it isn't the same attritional event it used to be, with a field size that made it look like the charge of the Scots Greys at Waterloo, but I still view it as a bit of a lottery. Anyhow, I've picked Yala Enke, Any Second Now, Class Conti and Vieux Lion Rouge - which is 4 from the top of my ratings, to have teeny tiny EW bets on, taking shameless advantage of the usual stupid things the online bookies offer for the race. (Money back if your horse loses would be good, but I don't think I've seen that one yet). With 10 picks to bet on as well I imagine I'll be crying gently by this time tomorrow.

Still, the betting bank hasn't done too badly in the last couple of months, up a little bit is good enough.

I wonder why the spell checker thinks I spelled Attritional incorrectly? ( On the other hand, it probably thinks there's only that one mistake if I write that sentence as

Eye wander way the spiel chucker things eye spelt Attritional incoherently ? Yup, still just that one word highlighted.....)

Dave





Dave
 

Attachments

  • 10_apr_full.xlsx
    92.7 KB · Views: 29

davejb

Mare
Report for : 09/04/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/8 Odds: 1.38 2.5 (Return: 5.88)
Mkt filter 2/7 Odds: 1.38 2.5 (Return: 5.88)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/6 Odds: 1.88 1.25 (Return: 5.13)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 1.25 (Return: 2.25)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/12 Odds: 1.75 12.0 (Return: 15.75)
Mkt filter 1/8 Odds: 1.75 (Return: 2.75)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/6 Odds: 1.25 1.38 (Return: 4.63)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 1.38 (Return: 2.38)

Total Out = 32 Total return (raw) = 31.39
Total wins: 8 / 32
List of winners:
Lei 14:40:00 Dirty Rascal (IRE) 2.38
Kem 16:35:00 Prontissimo 2.88
Kem 17:40:00 Quenelle Dor 2.25
Kem 20:10:00 Hold Fast (IRE) 3.5
Sed 14:00:00 Bellaney Gem (IRE) 2.25
Ain 14:50:00 Chantry House (IRE) 2.38
Sed 16:55:00 Agent Valdez 2.75
Ain 17:15:00 Rowland Ward 13.0

Darn, that was close!

Selections today - 3rd, W10/11, 2nd.

Picks - as has happened quite often it went down to the final race, there were 10 picks but two of them were really short, 30/100 and 1/8. so much as I like Shiskin (the 1/8) I skipped both.... the first of them, Getaway Luv, came 2nd so that was a good move.
Of the remaining 8 3 won - SP's were 3/1, 4/5, and 11/2 - total was therefore 8 out and 12.3 back, but for my records I counted all 10 of course and that ended up something like 10 out 13.something back. In reality I got 9/2, 2/1 and 6/1 on those three for an actual 8 out 15.5 back, thanks to Betfair giving me a handful of bet boosts. The one that really surprised me was Sense of Worth, who I had at 2/1, as apparently this one opened at 10/11 and went off at 4/5, I actually did a double take looking for a rule 4 deduction that wasn't there - how they priced this one up ahead of the racing I don't know but at midday it was, it would seem, a total bargain.

I frittered some of that away on the national - teeny little EW bets, and only Any Second Now paid out, so I was out 4pts and 1.5 back - still, it was a good enough day by the time the fat lady started to warble.

Onto tomorrow -

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Warwick 14:23:00 [NH H] Class 4 [16f] Stks [[17] run]
9/17 Runners rated
86 * 2703084 Zuba (Bf 9) Drawn 0/17 Gelding
Gifford N J 1-7(0) Worsley Tabitha 1-11(2) Days : 13
or
Passes: Stable Odds
Fails: Form
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 6/1 3Fav
WR% = 21.0

Kelso 15:36:00 [NH C] Class 3 [24f] Hcap [[6] run]
5/6 Runners rated
103 * 12141P2 On A Promise (IRE) (Bf 35) Drawn 0/6 Gelding
Dalgleish Keith 4-19(2) Nichol Craig 0-2(1) Days : 24
gng JCK or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 9/4 1Fav
WR% = 19.0

Warwick 16:00:00 [NH C] Class 5 [30f] Hcap [[9] run]
8/9 Runners rated
61 * 54PP822 Goodnight Charlie (Bf 4) Drawn 0/9 Mare
Fryer Miss C 0-1(0) Andrews Bridget 1-7(2) Days : 17
gng dst jck or
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 13/8 1Fav
WR% = 10.0

No picks for tomorrow, so it'll be a day off for me.
Dave

ps - I knew I was going to do something. here's an update on how the picks have done so far. The full list has had 201 bets so far - annoying it wasn't a nice round number, but I'll stick with 201 rather than chop number 201, which won at 11/2, off thanks! So 201 out 236.07 back, profit is about 18% on 37% win rate.
Sprinters - 59 bets, so 59 out, 98.489 back, profit 70% on a 34% win rate,

Sprint win rate has dropped, but decent prices have helped the profit hold up quite nicely after dropping last week. The main list profit is not what I was after or was hoping - from the early results - to achieve, but the profit is holding in the teens% and the win rate is also holding at a nice level that is lower than I'd looked for but still worth having.
 

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davejb

Mare
Report for : 10/04/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 4/18 Odds: 3.0 0.8 4.0 5.5 (Return: 17.3)
Mkt filter 4/13 Odds: 3.0 0.8 4.0 5.5 (Return: 17.3)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/7 Odds: 3.0 (Return: 4.0)
Mkt filter 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/13 Odds: 2.5 0.91 (Return: 5.41)
Mkt filter 1/7 Odds: 0.91 (Return: 1.91)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/7 Odds: 0.13 (Return: 1.13)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 0.13 (Return: 1.13)

Total Out = 45 Total return (raw) = 27.84
Total wins: 8 / 45
List of winners:
Lin 14:40:00 Fierospeed (IRE) 4.0
Dun 15:55:00 Sense Of Worth (IRE) 1.8
Wol 17:05:00 Omany Amber 5.0
Wol 19:15:00 Excel Power (IRE) 4.0
Wol 19:45:00 Twice As Likely 6.5
Che 13:00:00 Polydora (IRE) 3.5
Che 14:45:00 Saint De Reve (FR) 1.91
Ain 15:00:00 Shishkin (IRE) 1.13

Down there then.
Today's three selections ran 4th, 2nd, and nowhere. There were no picks.

There are no selections tomorrow, but there are 4 picks for me to bet on -

1618169903340.png

No sprints there. so these guys are from the 18% profit list, and to be fair that had dropped as low as 11 or 12% in the past few weeks before recovering, so I'm not expecting fireworks here, while I certainly hope they show a profit of some sort between them.

Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
Report for : 11/04/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/4 Odds: 3.0 (Return: 4.0)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/12 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/5 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/6 Odds: 1.2 (Return: 2.2)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 26 Total return (raw) = 6.2
Total wins: 2 / 26
List of winners:
Leo 14:10:00 Poetic Flare (IRE) 4.0
War 13:50:00 Onagatheringstorm (IRE) 2.2

Gosh, absolutely rubbish day!

No selections today.
4 Picks, one winner at 7/2 showing a 0.5 profit on the day then. If you bet on Mostaqqer a bit earlier in the day you'd have got better odds, I had a spare odds boost and got 5/1 instead of 9/2, so I'm a bit better off on the day.... which I don't object to!


Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Newton Abbot 13:15:00 [NH H] Class 4 [17f] Stks [[9] run]
6/9 Runners rated
82 * 624251 Caddyhill (IRE) (Bf 4) Drawn 0/9 Gelding
Ralph Alastair 1-11(4) Burke Jonathan 5-25(14) Days : 20
OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/1 2Fav
WR% = 40.0

Southwell AW 14:00:00 [NH C] Class 4 [25f] Hcap [[7] run]
7/7 Runners rated
73 * 0092211 First Class Return (IRE) (Bf 2.1) Drawn 0/7 Gelding
Murphy Olly 4-24(7) Skelton Harry 16-59(33) Days : 13
GNG DST JCK
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/8 1Fav
WR% = 21.0

Newton Abbot 16:05:00 [NH C] Class 4 [16.5f] Hcap [[4] run]
4/4 Runners rated
82 * P31P032 Court Royale (IRE) (Bf 2.75) Drawn 0/4 Gelding
Williams Evan 1-17(7) OBrien T J 2-24(11) Days : 8
gng dst or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/8 1Fav
WR% = 25.0

for the picks:

1618255852434.png

Tw3o sprinters to finish off with there, they have a lot to live up to given how well the previous sprint selections have done, let#s hope they continue to do well.

Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
Report for : 12/04/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/13 Odds: 3.33 3.5 (Return: 8.83)
Mkt filter 2/10 Odds: 3.33 3.5 (Return: 8.83)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/5 Odds: 4.5 (Return: 5.5)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/6 Odds: 2.75 (Return: 3.75)
Mkt filter 1/5 Odds: 2.75 (Return: 3.75)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 26 Total return (raw) = 18.08
Total wins: 4 / 26
List of winners:
Win 15:10:00 Stopnsearch 4.33
Wol 17:20:00 Mostaqqer (IRE) 4.5
Wol 19:20:00 Greystoke 5.5
Hun 14:00:00 Exelerator Express (FR) 3.75

A pretty useless day there as well then, however, I must admit I'm actually a little bit pleased in that my 'picks' routine chose to take a day off - in other words it knew there were no top rated runners that looked a decent bet.... so it may be a bit optimistic to think that my program has the capacity to highlight bad days to bet on, but I'll go with that interpretation!

Selections today - 3rd (no bet as against odds on fav), 0 (no bet as this WAS the 8/11 fav), and 3rd (no bet, also odds on at 4/9 fav). So, no bets anyway.

Picks list:
3rd, 2nd, 3rd, W7/1, W9/4 - one to run yet

A good day there for the picks then. The 7/2 especially as Thaayer was 9/1 at lunchtime, and with an odds boost that became 10/1 for me. Stars In The Night won at 9/4, which is what my 85/40 got boosted to anyhow so no change to SP there then. Stars in the Night was one of two sprint picks today, Tycho being the other. As Stars won I guess I'll have to concede that the sprinters are continuing to do well for the program.

Tycho has yet to run at Newcastle (8.00) as I type this, I'll update shortly.

Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Leopardstown 14:00:00 [Flat] [10f] Stks [[12] run]
5/12 Runners rated
63 * 5432 La Joconde (IRE) (Bf 3) Drawn 3/12 Filly
OBrien A P 4-23(6) Heffernan J A 2-25(6) Days : 170 !!! ALERT !!!
jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
Flat non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 2/1 1Fav
WR% = 44.0

Picks:
1618339512294.png

Just the two for a change there.

Caddyhill raised an interesting problem for me today, as my 'selection' rules are very simple, being up against an odds on favourite Caddyhill was a no bet. I haven't really set quite as strict a ruling on the picks though, have I? I will back a pick at shorter than 10/11 for a start, they are winning 36% or so of their races and have done so now since late February, I will certainly take 4/5 and probably even consider a little shorter.... there is still more risk, in my view, with odds on favourites than their odds really warrant - we see enough of them beaten on the average day to understand they are far from being racing certainties, yet when they win they do not return a fraction of some of the other winners. I think that is something for the individual to decide really, how short a price you'll take depends very much on what you are staking and how well you think you've been doing.

On the other hand, what about betting against a hot favourite? The selections say 'not if it's shorter than 10/11', and again I think the picks have performed better than selections, and can be 'trusted' a bit more when facing a tough opponent. I think I'm going to go with something like 4/6 as the shortest priced favourite I will back a pick against, and I'll adjust when I see how that pans out.

Why worry? Well, the picks selection process is automatic, if I have a set rule for the prices I will take and those I will bet against then that takes another decision out of my process - human fallibility is a common thread in failing at betting, and even the best punters can be undone by under or overconfidence. This setup allows me to bet or not bet on runners my program selects, and I do so at level stakes so there's no messing about there either. All that is left for me to decide about is: the size of one point in my betting, and when/if to change it.

At the moment I am running a small amount as my point, I am waiting to see if my bank increases to a level I will want to increase stakes at. At the moment I can have anything up to 10 bets a day - that's the sort of maximum I've seen so far - and my 'point' is at a level that allows me to lose several such days, ie no winners at all, for several days. Of course if I see myself going 20 losing bets in a row I'll be 'paper trading' until I see that run end, rather than waiting for the 40th losing bet to slip past....

I'm less interested in winning money than I am in seeing how long this will last, to be honest :D

Dave

Tycho finished 7th of 14, having gone off 5/1 favourite. So today's picks total was 6 bets 2 winners 11.25 return from 6 staked (at SP).
 

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