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  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

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Early days

davejb

Mare
Hi pete pete
Yes, I decided reporting to SP was something that left no doubt about the results quoted being achievable - I tend to skip the short odds ones myself so I have less bets but a better ROI as a result for example. If I quoted BFSP I would expect those numbers to rise a bit.

It's not a system as such of course, it's my top rated runners based on my speed figures, with a filtering process to chuck most of the day's runners out and leave me with a reasonable number of bets to handle.... I'm sure you know that, I just thought I'd mention it in reply in case any browsers thought this was based on picking 2nd favourites on courses with a R in the name on alternate Tuesdays or similar!
Dave
 

pete

Dam
It's not a system as such of course, it's my top rated runners based on my speed figures, with a filtering process to chuck most of the day's runners out and leave me with a reasonable number of bets to handle.... I'm sure you know that, I just thought I'd mention it in reply in case any browsers thought this was based on picking 2nd favourites on courses with a R in the name on alternate Tuesdays or similar!

yep, of course, results are usually weird though at changeover from NH to Flat so give it a bit longer trial that you might otherwise, its very encouraging that you have seemingly found a way forward .. so much hard work deserves reward. well done on the thread, its been fascinating from the very start. I think ive got a bottle of Peroni somewhere .. i'll join in at your 3000th :)
 

markfinn

Sire
Any day now I'll be hitting page 150 of this thread - the party to celebrate this will be socially distanced of course, I have opened a beer and am drinking it at the computer screen (or monitor as we early computer geeks still think of them) so hopefully you'll all be able to enjoy a sort of web based beer experience. It's 'Helles Schlenferla Lagerbier' from Brauerei Heller Bamberg. as best I can read the somewhat ornate label, and has a very distinctive flavour to put it mildly. This is another way of saying 'one of these will be enough, maybe I'll go for the Guiness for the next drink'.

Report for : 25/03/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 5/16 Odds: 3.5 4.0 7.0 1.5 9.0 (Return: 30.0)
Mkt filter 5/11 Odds: 3.5 4.0 7.0 1.5 9.0 (Return: 30.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 5/12 Odds: 0.33 4.0 0.22 6.0 1.25 (Return: 16.8)
Mkt filter 3/3 Odds: 0.33 0.22 1.25 (Return: 4.8)

Total Out = 28 Total return (raw) = 46.8
Total wins: 10 / 28
List of winners:
Che 13:00:00 Galice Macalo (FR) 1.33
Che 13:35:00 Major Dundee (IRE) 5.0
Che 14:07:00 Supreme Escape (IRE) 4.5
Lud 14:15:00 Rock On Rocco (IRE) 5.0
Sed 14:22:00 Dargiannini (IRE) 1.22
Che 14:37:00 Arthurs Reuben 8.0
Cor 15:00:00 Glentruan (IRE) 7.0
Lud 15:15:00 Checkitout (IRE) 2.5
Cor 15:30:00 Takarengo (IRE) 2.25
Cor 17:05:00 Hilltop Supreme (IRE) 10.0

Okay, got the correct report done - a much better report than I got by repeating yesterday's one!

Today's two selections managed a 2nd place (at 2/5f yikes) between them, unemcumbered by having any of my cash on board I am pleased to say. Sadly the picks are showing 0, 3rd, 0 as I type this and i did have a small bet on each of them, so I am hoping for at least one of the rest to come up trumps.
Last trio of picks were 0, W7/2 and W11/4 so we had to sit through 4 losers and most of the day to gain our profit, but 6 out 8.25 back at SP is okay for when the fat lady sings. I got them at 4/1 and 3/1 for a slightly better profit I am pleased to say.... it's usually my wife who does that.


Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Kelso 13:00:00 [NH C] Class 4 [17.5f] Hcap [[5] run]
4/5 Runners rated
78 * 5668241 Fourth Of July (IRE) (Bf 2.75) Drawn 0/5 Gelding
Smith R Michael 0-5(1) Mania Ryan 3-24(14) Days : 21
GNG DST JCK
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 15/8 1Fav
WR% = 16.0

Kelso 14:40:00 [NH H] Class 2 [16.5f] Hcap [[6] run]
5/6 Runners rated
134 * 3413412 Across The Line (IRE) (Bf 2.75) Drawn 0/6 Gelding
Skelton Daniel 10-53(17) Skelton Harry 13-63(34) Days : 31
GNG DST JCK or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/4 1Fav
WR% = 16.0

Picks:
View attachment 97980

As that final race in the picks has two selections in it my usual approach currently would be to back both provided they are both odds against, otherwise to ignore both - trying to pick one above the other seldom seems to work out that well.

For anyone interested, the picks list so far since it started on this thread has had 117 runners, 45 winners and returned 138.23 to 1pt level stakes, giving a win rate of a shade over 38% and ROI of 118%. The ROI is disappointing, frankly, but due to there being a bit of a flurry of odds on jobs at very short odds, so even when they win the ROI drops. Here's hoping for some longer odds - as long as they still win of course.

Originally I mistrusted the AW handicappers over 5-7f, and was that a mistake or what. The 5-7f runners I have been keeping tally on, and over the same period there have been 33 runners with 12 winners and a return of 68.48 - that's a win rate of 36%+ and ROI of 207%+ Now on the bonus side these are the picks that have (***) showing in that right most column, so they've been posted on here and have added to the main list profits of course, after that initial 'no bet' period. It would be marvellous if the picks could continue to work on the flat, which we'll find out about over the next month or two. The sprinters are doing better than expected, the main list win rate is good, but the ROI disappointing compared to how the early figures were going, so I'm going to continue with this stuff.... I'm happy that it isn't a complete flash in the pan, but it could still all come a cropper as the flat gets under way. If that happens then I'll probably limit flat bets to the AW picks, but we'll see.

Dave
Dave net 18% Roi - is a good profit trust me - not many business’s can achieve that .
 

davejb

Mare
Of course the ratings for the flat are largely based on AW ratings at the moment, and I've always been less than happy about having turf and AW as there are horses that do better on one surface rather than both. The turf figures are all 6 months old at least, and there's the issue of match fitness early on - all sorts of things come into play in this first couple of months. my own approach is to see what happens, I doubt there'll be a problem with the AW runners or the NH, but I will have to assess how anything that comes up for the flat goes - the flat season doesn't even begin to bed in until June in my opinion, and everything during the flat tends to turn upside down every month to six weeks unless you get a long long dry spell, so I'm not too worried... I'm not going to curse and give up just because the flat is an issue, I'll just wait for the AW and NH picks to turn up.

I do look forward to the group racing though, it's good to see the really top notch runners and I'll certainly have to have a few picked for whenever I can get back to the racecourse. My wife's club (Elite Racing) and the Owners Group are starting to think about stable visits and owners' badges and the like so maybe we'll manage a visit to a stable or even the parade ring this season at some point. Perhaps I'll have to buy myself a panama hat - I think M and Co did one for about a tenner last year.....it only has to last for the duration of one race, after all!

Dave
 

davejb

Mare
Thanks dave58 dave58 - it's been a fairly busy process at times, and quite absorbing, It'd be nice if this latest effort kept producing.

Report for : 26/03/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/15 Odds: 3.5 2.75 (Return: 8.25)
Mkt filter 2/8 Odds: 3.5 2.75 (Return: 8.25)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/6 Odds: 1.88 0.67 (Return: 4.55)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 0.67 (Return: 1.67)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/6 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 29 Total return (raw) = 12.8
Total wins: 4 / 29
List of winners:
Dun 16:25:00 Kendred Soul (IRE) 2.88
Dun 16:55:00 Sir Lamorak (IRE) 1.67
New 19:45:00 Harrys Ridge (IRE) 4.5
Dun 20:00:00 Betrayed 3.75

No profit there then.
Today's selections - two handicaps, first won at evens, the other one didn't.
Picks - well the sprinters did okay, W7/2 and W11/4 - that produced 0.25 profit and a free bet on the pair in the last race at Wolverhampton, sadly neither of them won. No other winners so the end result is 8 pts out and 8.25 back, with a long wait for the first winner. It's beginning to look like only the sprinters are really worth betting on, and amongst them it's the 'proper' 5-6f ones carrying the load here, which is funny as it was the sprinters that looked worst of the bunch initially. I'm going to keep the picks going as they are for now and see how things go, as I've said before it's a case of sitting and watching what happens for a few weeks - no point in rushing. I don't think it's a surprise to find 5-6f speed ratings coming out more reliable, it's what I expected to see when I started this sort of thing a few years ago - I've always been surprised that speed ratings for sprinters weren't producing better results, it might be that I'm finally getting the hang of them a bit.

Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Ascot 14:10:00 [NH C] Class 2 [17f] Hcap [[3] run]
3/3 Runners rated
94 * 5515121 Funambule Sivola (FR) (Bf 2.1) Drawn 0/3 Gelding
Williams Miss Venetia 3-23(6) Deutsch Charlie 4-24(10) Days : 31
DST JCK
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/10 1Fav
WR% = 11.0

Limerick 15:10:00 [NH H] [16f] Stks [[9] run]
5/9 Runners rated
62 * 38F2160 Felicidad (FR) (Bf 3.5) Drawn 0/9 Mare
Foster Mrs Denise 10-78(18) Blackmore Rachael 8-43(14) Days : 49
Passes: Stable Odds
Fails: Form
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/2 2Fav
WR% = 34.0

Limerick 15:45:00 [NH H] [16f] Hcap [[9] run]
9/9 Runners rated
81 * 46U6931 Joeswayornoway (IRE) (Bf 2.88) Drawn 0/9 Mare
Sheehy E 1-3(0) Donovan Philip 1-9(2) Days : 5
gng DST JCK
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 2/1 1Fav
WR% = 6.0

Limerick 16:20:00 [NH C] Grade 3 [24.5f] Stks [[5] run]
5/5 Runners rated
126 * 5151134 Chatham Street Lad (IRE) (Bf 1.8) Drawn 0/5 Gelding
Winters Michael 0-8(1) OKeeffe Darragh 3-26(6) Days : 10
JCK or
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET Evs 1Fav
WR% = 34.0

Ascot 16:30:00 [NH C] Class 5 [24f] Stks [[5] run]
2/5 Runners rated
77 * 6F12921 Alcala (FR) (Bf 1.29) Drawn 0/5 Gelding
Nicholls P F 5-51(15) Cobden Harry 6-46(19) Days : 25
GNG JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 2/7 1Fav
WR% = 18.0

Carlisle 16:40:00 [NH H] Class 3 [25f] Hcap [[5] run]
5/5 Runners rated
121 * P431P31 Storm Nelson (IRE) (Bf 3.5) Drawn 0/5 Gelding
Thomson A M 1-11(5) Mania Ryan 3-25(13) Days : 27
OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/4 1Fav
WR% = 25.0

Picks list:
1616877970981.png

Three jumpers there then, Henry Gondoff has featured here before - he was a pick for a race at Exeter on the 9th of this month but didn't run, let's see if the delayed appearance was worth waiting for
Dave
 

Attachments

  • 28_mar_full.xlsx
    80.4 KB · Views: 2

davejb

Mare
Report for : 27/03/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 4/23 Odds: 8.0 4.5 3.5 2.75 (Return: 22.75)
Mkt filter 3/15 Odds: 8.0 4.5 2.75 (Return: 18.25)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/11 Odds: 1.75 1.88 (Return: 5.63)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/10 Odds: 1.25 1.0 (Return: 4.25)
Mkt filter 1/6 Odds: 1.0 (Return: 2.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 46 Total return (raw) = 32.63
Total wins: 8 / 46
List of winners:
Don 14:35:00 Artistic Rifles (IRE) 9.0
Don 15:10:00 Haqeeqy (IRE) 5.5
Nav 15:35:00 Team Of Firsts 2.75
Nav 16:45:00 Earlswood 2.88
Wol 18:30:00 Scale Force 4.5
Wol 19:00:00 Spurofthemoment 3.75
Kel 12:30:00 Leostar 2.25
Kel 13:00:00 Fourth Of July (IRE) 2.0

I can't complain about the flat really - Doncaster showed a good return with those two winners. Oh well.
Selections today W11/10, 2nd - as this one was up against a 1/6 favourite it wasn't a bet anyway, nowhere, W 1/1, W30/100 - too short for a bet. W11/10 - So that was 4 bets with 3 winners at 11/10, 11/10 and Evens.

Picks - one non runner which left Henry Gondoff who came second - I'm not a trainer or a jockey, so my opinion is probably not worth much, but he seemed to be sent for home a long way out, which left him to get mugged halfway up the run in having been nicely clear from about the second last. Being the only bet for me this was a bit annoying, but not a major hit I suppose, The other runner won, but at 30/100.

Tomorrow's selections and picks list:

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Wincanton 13:30:00 [NH C] Class 5 [20f] Hcap [[8] run]
2/8 Runners rated
82 * 5243P44 Prince Llywelyn (Bf 2.5) Drawn 0/8 Gelding
Bailey K C 3-22(3) Bass David 4-25(7) Days : 20
jck or
Passes: Stable Odds
Fails: Form
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 6/4 1Fav
WR% = 17.0

Stratford 14:20:00 [NH C] Class 4 [20f] Hcap [[7] run]
4/7 Runners rated
82 * 750271 Jemima P (IRE) (Bf 2.63) Drawn 0/7 Mare
Lavelle Miss E C 1-16(5) Jones Ben R 2-19(8) Days : 20
GNG JCK
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 6/4 1Fav
WR% = 15.0

Fontwell 14:40:00 [NH C] Class 4 [18f] Stks [[4] run]
2/4 Runners rated
85 * 7F11242 Fidelio Vallis (FR) (Bf 1.62) Drawn 0/4 Gelding
Nicholls P F 6-56(17) Frost Bryony 1-22(3) Days : 103 !!! ALERT !!!
gng or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 1/3 1Fav
WR% = 29.0

Wincanton 16:00:00 [NH H] Class 4 [21.5f] Hcap [[15] run]
13/15 Runners rated
81 * PPP5892 The Knot Is Tied (IRE) (Bf 3.5) Drawn 0/15 Gelding
King N B 2-14(1) Phillips Mr N 0-0(0) Days : 24
gng or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/4 1Fav
WR% = 17.0

Three are handicaps, but they're back in the bets list as I mentioned previously, given that the line of duck eggs has been terminated - for mow at least.

As for the picks:
1616963188890.png

There's nothing special about the 1720, I just happened to take a screenshot while I had that cell selected, incidentally.
There are 3 selections in the 5.50 at Wolv, all top rated at 61, Hector's Here gained that rating last time out which is preferred, the column before the form figures is the position in the RP betting forecast - so Hector is 4th in the betting, Giuseppe is 5th, Capriolette 6th. I would imagine all three could be backed and still show a profit if one won, in fact the forecast odds allow all three to be backed each way for those who fancy a 1-2-3 for some obscure reason (Capriolette is actually double the odds of the other two on Betfair currently, rather than 6th in the betting). I'll probably just avoid the race altogether, I'm not a great fan of taking two against the field, never mind 3.
It is worth bearing in mind what I said last night (I think it was) - the 5 and 6f picks have outperformed those over 7f or more, and the non handicap NH runners, by a wide margin. In fact while the non handicap NH runners are winning pretty often, they aren't really turning a profit. I'd like to see this list do well tomorrow, but based on the last couple of weeks I'm wary, there are no 5/6f runners in there and I am not overly confident as a result. As ever a lot will depend on the odds.


Dave
 

Attachments

  • 29_mar_full.xlsx
    57 KB · Views: 3

davejb

Mare
Report for : 28/03/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/9 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/7 Odds: 11.0 (Return: 12.0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 4/12 Odds: 1.1 12.0 22.0 1.1 (Return: 40.2)
Mkt filter 3/7 Odds: 1.1 12.0 1.1 (Return: 17.2)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 5/9 Odds: 0.57 1.75 0.62 1.0 0.3 (Return: 9.24)
Mkt filter 5/6 Odds: 0.57 1.75 0.62 1.0 0.3 (Return: 9.24)

Total Out = 37 Total return (raw) = 61.44
Total wins: 10 / 37
List of winners:
Don 13:55:00 George Peabody (IRE) 12.0
Lim 13:25:00 Castle Town House (IRE) 1.57
Asc 13:35:00 Cascova (IRE) 2.75
Lim 14:00:00 Lifetime Ambition (IRE) 1.62
Asc 14:10:00 Funambule Sivola (FR) 2.1
Asc 14:45:00 Herbiers (FR) 13.0
Car 15:30:00 Halcyon Days 23.0
Lim 16:20:00 Chatham Street Lad (IRE) 2.0
Asc 16:30:00 Alcala (FR) 1.3
Car 16:40:00 Storm Nelson (IRE) 2.1

A decent day, like a bolt from the blue after the past few days.
Today's selections and picks did badly, of 4 selections only one won at a no bet 2/7, and the only one of the picks list to oblige was 4/11f- maybe the sprinters list is also about to go into terminal decline but it's all starting to look like one of those times when you can do no wrong for a month then it all caves in on you. I'll carry things on for a while yet, if only too see how bad things will get....if things pick up then it'll just be a losing run and you always get them at some point.... the trick is not to throw good money after bad while they play out.

I sometimes feel like I'm playing Whack a mole, one day the selections do well, another day it's the picks, then a day comes along where the ratings do well just blindly going with the toprated and hang the clever bits.... if I could get in synch I'd be quids in!


Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Warwick 15:35:00 [NH C] Class 3 [16.5f] Hcap [[7] run]
5/7 Runners rated
96 * 8098331 Generous Day (IRE) (Bf 4.33) Drawn 0/7 Gelding
Oliver Henry 2-11(3) Brennan P J 3-26(10) Days : 30
dst JCK
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/2 2Fav
WR% = 11.0

Warwick 16:45:00 [NH C] Class 6 [20.5f] Stks [[5] run]
1/5 Runners rated
75 * 851P1P1 Caid Du Berlais (FR) (Bf 1.33) Drawn 0/5 Gelding
Loxton S 0-1(0) Biddick Mr W 0-0(0) Days : 27
GNG DST OR
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 1/4 1Fav
WR% = 21.0

Newcastle AW 16:52:00 [NH H] Class 5 [24f] Hcap [[12] run]
11/12 Runners rated
64 * 47662U Luca Brasis Boy (IRE) (Bf 6) Drawn 0/12 Gelding
Bedi Miss J 0-0(0) Anderson Mr A 0-11(2) Days : 33
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/1 2Fav
WR% = 16.0

Picks:
1617047763038.png

The hopeful bit is that the 7.40 is 6f sprint.... I'd want all three to win frankly, or at least two of them, before I got too hopeful mind.

Dave
 

Attachments

  • 30_mar_full.xlsx
    53.8 KB · Views: 4

davejb

Mare
Report for : 29/03/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/7 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/2 Odds: 4.5 (Return: 5.5)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/16 Odds: 2.75 3.0 2.75 (Return: 11.5)
Mkt filter 3/13 Odds: 2.75 3.0 2.75 (Return: 11.5)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/8 Odds: 0.36 1.25 0.29 (Return: 4.9)
Mkt filter 3/5 Odds: 0.36 1.25 0.29 (Return: 4.9)

Total Out = 33 Total return (raw) = 21.9
Total wins: 7 / 33
List of winners:
Wol 19:50:00 Billy Mill 5.5
Str 13:50:00 Stepney Causeway 1.36
Win 14:00:00 Danny Kirwan (IRE) 2.25
Fon 14:10:00 Friends Dont Ask 3.75
Win 14:30:00 Kauto The King (FR) 4.0
Fon 14:40:00 Fidelio Vallis (FR) 1.29
Fon 15:40:00 Away For Slates (IRE) 3.75

Well, can't win all the time.
Selections today ended up as a 1/8F winner, a third and a pulled up - so not very good.
Picks - swings and bloody roundabouts, I feel like complaining to the local council about unauthorised playparks occurring in my daily racing. As noted above my wish for 2 out of three came up, although one was a no bet at 1/8 (same as the selection) - Caid De Berlais was 2/9 when I went to put my bets on, I figured he'd be short and of no interest so left it until early afternoon while my wife and I had a thrilling trip to a local butcher to buy some of their cracking bacon. £18 and a bit later we walked out with bacon, pork sausages, beefburgers and a couple of chicken breasts. (We then had some salmon skewer things and roast veg for dinner this evening, so go figure). I'd blame my wife but to be fair it was me who started it all off by saying 'those sausages look nice....' and it sort of steamrollered from there.

Anyhow, when I got round to actually putting a very modest bet down - I'm not really in the to make money any more, it's more to prove a point I think - the two other runners from the trio were at 17/2 (FPS) and 5/1 (Macambe) so the day ended up okay. For Peats Sake went out to 8/1 for the off, Macambe closed in to 16/5 - which is how I recorded the price for my stats, ie at 16/5, which does mean I'm usually a bit better off than the stats show.... no bad thing. Ultimately though today simply brought the bank back to where it was before yesterday's losers.


Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Ludlow 12:30:00 [NH H] Class 4 [16f] Stks [[7] run]
1/7 Runners rated
85 * 3132555 Subway Surf (IRE) (Bf 4.5) Drawn 0/7 Mare
Bailey K C 3-18(3) Bass David 3-23(7) Days : 17
Passes: Stable Odds
Fails: Form
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 2/1 2Fav
WR% = 20.0

Ludlow 13:30:00 [NH H] Class 3 [16f] Hcap [[6] run]
5/6 Runners rated
108 * 1412 Dobryn (FR) (Bf 3.5) Drawn 0/6 Gelding
Thomas Sam 1-1(0) Nailor Jordan 4-23(8) Days : 27
GNG DST JCK
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 9/4 2Fav
WR% = 10.0

Hexham 14:40:00 [NH C] Class 5 [20f] Hcap [[9] run]
9/9 Runners rated
59 * 68FPP51 Maasai Warrior (IRE) (Bf 2.88) Drawn 0/9 Gelding
Henderson P 1-4(0) Houlihan Sean M 3-24(9) Days : 10
GNG DST JCK
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 6/4 1Fav
WR% = 22.0

Ludlow 15:30:00 [NH C] Class 5 [20f] Stks [[8] run]
6/8 Runners rated
88 * 6408864 San Benedeto (FR) (Bf 2.5) Drawn 0/8 Gelding
Nicholls P F 9-57(16) Parker Natalie 0-1(0) Days : 50
Passes: Stable Odds
Fails: Form
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 6/4 1Fav
WR% = 20.0

Southwell AW 15:50:00 [NH H] Class 4 [21f] Stks [[8] run]
4/8 Runners rated
72 * 354F2P2 Tequila Blaze (Bf 3.25) Drawn 0/8 Mare
OBrien Fergal 2-33(8) Harrison Liam 1-10(3) Days : 70
dst
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 9/4 2Fav
WR% = 17.0

Hexham 16:45:00 [NH C] Class 5 [24.5f] Hcap [[9] run]
8/9 Runners rated
75 * 3114U23 Cudgel (Bf 4.5) Drawn 0/9 Gelding
Walton J B 0-2(1) Hamilton Jamie 4-16(9) Days : 13
dst jck OR
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 4/1 3Fav
WR% = 22.0

Dundalk 18:30:00 [AW] [8f] Stks [[14] run]
12/17 Runners rated
63 * 7722202 Aroha (IRE) (Bf 3.5) Drawn 1/14 Filly
Twomey P 0-1(0) Lee W J 2-26(6) Days : 156 !!! ALERT !!!
or
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
AW non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 3/1 1Fav
WR% = 25.0

rather a lot there, I will only be backing the picks as usual....provided they aren't too short priced.

1617136260366.png
Franco is 2/5 at the moment on the RP site, so probably not going to be a bet! In the unlikely event the price heads more towards evens I'd suggest wait for RTV/ATR/Whoever to show them going to post and check there are still 4 legs at the corners....
Ahoy Senor is at 5/4, so may be a bet if nobody drops out to shorten odds. Generally speaking these bets are proving less interesting - the *** flagged picks are in profit, but by a steadily shrinking margin, and for a while now they've been looking steadily less appetising - the AW picks tend to be at longer odds, have a slightly lower strike rate, but much better profitability.

Dave
 

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  • 31_mar_full.xlsx
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davejb

Mare
Report for : 30/03/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/5 Odds: 0.53 3.0 (Return: 5.53)
Mkt filter 2/3 Odds: 0.53 3.0 (Return: 5.53)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/2 Odds: 0.8 1.0 (Return: 3.8)
Mkt filter 2/2 Odds: 0.8 1.0 (Return: 3.8)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/16 Odds: 3.33 18.0 (Return: 23.33)
Mkt filter 1/8 Odds: 3.33 (Return: 4.33)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/7 Odds: 3.0 0.62 0.13 1.63 (Return: 9.38)
Mkt filter 3/4 Odds: 3.0 0.62 0.13 (Return: 6.75)

Total Out = 30 Total return (raw) = 42.04
Total wins: 10 / 30
List of winners:
Wol 17:40:00 Doc Sportello (IRE) 1.8
Wol 18:40:00 Boss Power (IRE) 1.53
Wol 19:10:00 Marshall Plan 2.0
Wol 20:10:00 Makambe (IRE) 4.0
New 13:00:00 Geromino (FR) 4.0
Fak 14:15:00 Torn And Frayed (FR) 1.62
New 14:35:00 Prince Kayf 4.33
Fak 15:25:00 Glimpse Of Gold 19.0
War 16:45:00 Caid Du Berlais (FR) 1.13
Fak 17:00:00 Peacocks Secret (IRE) 2.63

Up again, good!
Selections - started okay, ignoring the two NRs the results were W5/4, W13/8... then went south with 3rd, 2nd, 2nd.
Picks - a non runner for the only bet really, the other one was 2/5F - and came 2nd! That's why I don't back long odds on shots, one loser now and again can take 3 or 4 winners to get even.... not worth the suspense.


Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Wetherby 14:15:00 [NH C] Class 4 [15.5f] Hcap [[6] run]
6/6 Runners rated
74 * 17743U2 Snougar (IRE) (Bf 2.88) Drawn 0/6 Gelding
McCain Jnr D 4-20(6) Hughes Brian 13-71(32) Days : 37
dst jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/2 2Fav
WR% = 11.0

Uttoxeter 15:10:00 [NH H] Class 4 [24f] Hcap [[10] run]
11/11 Runners rated
80 * 4327534 Off The Hook (IRE) (Bf 3.25) Drawn 0/10 Mare
Skelton Daniel 11-45(15) Skelton Harry 16-65(37) Days : 39
jck
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/4 1Fav
WR% = 21.0

Uttoxeter 15:40:00 [NH C] Class 4 [24f] Hcap [[9] run]
9/10 Runners rated
88 * 2F38232 Boughtbeforelunch (IRE) (Bf 3.5) Drawn 0/9 Gelding
Webber P R 0-9(3) Savage Jack A 0-2(1) Days : 118 !!! ALERT !!!
gng dst jck or
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 3/1 2Fav
WR% = 21.0

Clonmel 16:30:00 [NH H] [18.5f] Stks [[14] run]
9/17 Runners rated
85 * 2092852 Hill Of Truth (IRE) (Bf 5) Drawn 0/14 Mare
Burns R P 0-0(0) Landers Cathal A 0-4(0) Days : 193 !!! ALERT !!!
jck or
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/1 3Fav
WR% = 25.0

Ffos Las 17:10:00 [NH H] Class 4 [22f] Hcap [[13] run]
12/14 Runners rated
81 * 6834162 At First Glance (IRE) (Bf 4) Drawn 0/13 Mare
ONeill Jonjo 5-26(7) ONeill Jonjo (Jr) 4-32(11) Days : 87
GNG JCK
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/4 1Fav
WR% = 6.0

Clonmel 18:35:00 [NH C] [22.5f] Hcap [[14] run]
14/17 Runners rated
100 * 4451352 Macs Legend (IRE) (Bf 7.5) Drawn 0/14 Gelding
Kelleher Gerard 1-2(1) Foley Barry 1-11(1) Days : 23
or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 6/1 2Fav
WR% = 9 0

Picks are again thin on the ground...

1617215428493.png

Personally I'd consider both of these to be a bit speculative - they are both capable of winning and ought to be at decent prices, with more obvious candidates ahead of them in the market. Celtic Classic's jockey is the only significant concern I have really as he's a 7lb claimer who has won on 2 from 24 outings so far... he could either be a very useful choice who knocks a very handy 7lb off the horse's back, or a bit of a negative considering there are a good number of very experienced jockeys in the race..... we'll see. Might be a good EW pick, not as sure about the win. I suspect both will prove to be worth their odds, so I'll have a small amount on each barring anything untoward coming up.

Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
Report for : 31/03/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/11 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/7 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/6 Odds: 1.25 (Return: 2.25)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 1.25 (Return: 2.25)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 5/13 Odds: 1.75 1.25 1.63 2.0 1.63 (Return: 13.26)
Mkt filter 4/7 Odds: 1.75 1.25 1.63 1.63 (Return: 10.26)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/7 Odds: 0.73 (Return: 1.73)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 0.73 (Return: 1.73)

Total Out = 37 Total return (raw) = 17.24
Total wins: 7 / 37
List of winners:
Kem 19:15:00 Troll Peninsula (USA) 2.25
Lud 13:00:00 Evander (IRE) 2.75
Lud 13:30:00 Dobryn (FR) 2.25
Lud 14:00:00 Ballymoy (IRE) 2.63
Lud 14:30:00 Precious Eleanor (FR) 3.0
Hex 14:40:00 Maasai Warrior (IRE) 2.63
Hex 17:20:00 Dazzling Glory (IRE) 1.73

Bah, rubbish.

Nothing from the selections won today, out of 6 runners.
The sole pick also failed to deliver sadly.

No selections tomorrow, but there are a few in the pick list -

1617308789628.png

A good few there then, the (***) ones are the sprints - the jury is still out on whether the 7f races should go into the mile plus group.
Dave
 

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  • 02_apr_full.xlsx
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davejb

Mare
Report for : 01/04/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/6 Odds: 3.0 (Return: 4.0)
Mkt filter 1/4 Odds: 3.0 (Return: 4.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 4/19 Odds: 3.5 1.75 11.0 4.0 (Return: 24.25)
Mkt filter 4/13 Odds: 3.5 1.75 11.0 4.0 (Return: 24.25)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/11 Odds: 1.75 3.0 1.75 (Return: 9.5)
Mkt filter 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 37 Total return (raw) = 37.75
Total wins: 8 / 37
List of winners:
Che 18:50:00 Autumn Flight (IRE) 4.0
Utt 13:00:00 Ask A Honey Bee (IRE) 2.75
Utt 14:05:00 Oski (IRE) 4.5
Utt 14:40:00 Stormy Flight (IRE) 2.75
Wet 15:50:00 Bafana Blue 12.0
Utt 16:15:00 Chase The Wind (IRE) 5.0
Clo 17:35:00 Oscar Thyne (IRE) 4.0
Clo 19:05:00 Shantreusse (IRE) 2.75

A teeny tiny profit... better than losing.

Today went well - there were no selections for today, to make up for it there were 9 in the picks list, 3 of them in the sprinters. Of the 9 runners five won at odds of 9/2, 5/1, 15/8, 5/2 and 5/2 (the two 5/2 winners were two if the sprinters, which scored 2/3 on the day). The profit was pretty good, 9 pts out and 30.38 back. this of course was needed as there've been some pretty poor days lately, it has boosted the ROI and win rate numbers quite nicely and given a bit more of a cushion for the next bad day to pop along - as you can be sure will happen, I'm pretty sure there's no infallible betting method out there despite the adverts.

It was nice to see Bangkok win at Lingfield, as expected of course, he should have had a class edge here - he's been in some very good races but been fairly soundly beaten a lot of the time, it's nice to see him given a bit of an easier win than he's used to attempting even if he did 'only' pick up 50 grand for it. I was also quite pleased Summerghand won the 4yo+ 6f sprint, as he's another who is often lost in the background in more valuable events.


Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Fairyhouse 13:45:00 [NH C] [24.5f] Stks [[11] run]
8/11 Runners rated
107 * P600261 Jury Duty (IRE) (Bf 3) Drawn 0/11 Gelding
Foster Mrs Denise 3-39(13) Codd Mr J J 2-10(5) Days : 37
DST JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/2 1Fav
WR% = 14.0

Newton Abbot 13:55:00 [NH H] Class 4 [17.5f] Stks [[11] run]
8/11 Runners rated
90 * 1P39 Hell Red (FR) (Bf 2) Drawn 0/11 Gelding
Nicholls P F 9-39(15) Cobden Harry 9-48(23) Days : 18
GNG JCK or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 1/2 1Fav
WR% = 2 0

Haydock 16:25:00 [NH C] Class 4 [25.5f] Hcap [[7] run]
6/7 Runners rated
101 * 073P253 Air Navigator (Bf 5) Drawn 0/7 Gelding
George T R 6-26(9) Gethings Ciaran 3-22(8) Days : 109 !!! ALERT !!!
jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/4 1Fav
WR% = 8.0

Picks List:

1617392626399.png


Dave
 

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  • 03_apr_full.xlsx
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davejb

Mare
Report for : 02/04/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 5/15 Odds: 4.5 5.0 1.88 2.5 2.5 (Return: 21.38)
Mkt filter 3/8 Odds: 4.5 2.5 2.5 (Return: 12.5)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/10 Odds: 3.5 1.5 (Return: 7.0)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 1.5 (Return: 2.5)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 25 Total return (raw) = 28.38
Total wins: 7 / 25
List of winners:
Lin 14:00:00 Ranch Hand 4.5
Che 15:35:00 Gloves Lynch 5.5
New 16:00:00 Napper Tandy 6.0
Che 16:07:00 United Front (USA) 2.88
Lin 16:45:00 Khuzaam (USA) 2.5
New 17:30:00 Kind Review 3.5
Che 18:10:00 Sir Hector (IRE) 3.5

Slightly better again....

Today's selections and picks all went down the tubes I'm afraid, barring Hill Red at 2/5f (so no bet anyhow). Rectory Road in the last led round the final bend and to about the furlong marker before being swamped, teasing me that was.

Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Hereford 14:16:00 [NH H] Class 5 [25.5f] Hcap [[8] run]
8/9 Runners rated
70 * 234743 La Reine Poutine (FR) (Bf 7) Drawn 0/8 Mare
Thomas Sam 1-2(0) Twiston-Davies Sam 4-48(12) Days : 34
jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/4 1Fav
WR% = 5.0

Plumpton 14:26:00 [NH H] Class 4 [15.5f] Stks [[12] run]
6/12 Runners rated
71 * 4342563 Touchthesoul (ITY) (Bf 3.5) Drawn 0/12 Gelding
Moore G L 3-26(7) Moore Jamie 4-25(12) Days : 16
dst or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 3/1 2Fav
WR% = 20.0

Market Rasen 15:10:00 [NH C] Class 3 [22f] Hcap [[5] run]
4/5 Runners rated
112 * 513461 Fraternel (FR) (Bf 3) Drawn 0/5 Gelding
King A 4-33(10) Bellamy Tom 4-25(12) Days : 22
gng or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 15/8 1Fav
WR% = 14.0

Plumpton 16:00:00 [NH C] Class 5 [20f] Hcap [[6] run]
6/6 Runners rated
67 * 57522F6 Diligent (FR) (Bf 7) Drawn 0/6 Gelding
Hawke N J 1-11(4) Buckley Kieran 0-8(1) Days : 14

Passes: Stable Odds
Fails: Form
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/2 2Fav
WR% = 16.0

Picks list:
1617485258609.png

There is only one sprint in there unfortunately - I like to see at least a couple to up the odds on getting a winner...saying that the other 4 ought to produce at least one, I just hope that if they do it isn't another odds on favourite.

Dave
 

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  • 04_apr_full.xlsx
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davejb

Mare
Report for : 03/04/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/19 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/12 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/5 Odds: 1.25 (Return: 2.25)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 1.25 (Return: 2.25)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 4/20 Odds: 4.0 0.53 14.0 3.0 (Return: 25.53)
Mkt filter 3/13 Odds: 4.0 0.53 3.0 (Return: 10.53)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/9 Odds: 0.4 0.29 1.5 0.57 (Return: 6.76)
Mkt filter 4/5 Odds: 0.4 0.29 1.5 0.57 (Return: 6.76)

Total Out = 53 Total return (raw) = 34.54
Total wins: 9 / 53
List of winners:
Cor 17:30:00 Colour Sergeant (IRE) 2.25
Car 13:38:00 Donladd (IRE) 5.0
New 13:55:00 Hell Red (FR) 1.4
New 15:05:00 Dorking Lad 1.29
Car 15:58:00 Storm Nelson (IRE) 1.53
Fai 16:40:00 Party Central (IRE) 2.5
Car 17:05:00 Locallink (IRE) 15.0
Fai 17:15:00 Letsbeclearaboutit (IRE) 1.57
New 17:25:00 Eritage (FR) 4.0

Another crummy day, one 7/4 winner from selections from 3, zero picks from 5 runners.

Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Plumpton 14:45:00 [NH C] Class 5 [26.5f] Hcap [[8] run]
7/8 Runners rated
53 * 0882522 Aheadfullofdreams (IRE) (Bf 1.91) Drawn 0/8 Gelding
Skelton Daniel 15-50(14) Skelton Harry 21-67(40) Days : 12
gng jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 4/5 1Fav
WR% = 16.0

Fairyhouse 15:50:00 [NH H] Grade 2 [20f] Stks [[10] run]
9/10 Runners rated
110 * 2113314 Beacon Edge (IRE) (Bf 3.25) Drawn 0/10 Gelding
Meade Noel 1-16(3) Flanagan S W 0-16(1) Days : 18
GNG DST JCK
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 2/1 1Fav
WR% = 15.0

Cork 16:05:00 [NH C] [24f] Stks [[14] run]
11/17 Runners rated
71 * F2P6226 Wrong Direction (IRE) (Bf 2) Drawn 0/14 Gelding
Spillane Seamus 0-1(0) Hurley Mr J 0-1(0) Days : 24
dst jck or
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 4/7 1Fav
WR% = 16.0

Fairyhouse 17:00:00 [NH C] Grade 1 [29f] Hcap [[30] run]
29/31 Runners rated
135 * 16U3U32 Sempo (IRE) (Bf 9) Drawn 0/30 Gelding
OBrien Joseph Patrick 0-22(1) Meyler D 1-8(2) Days : 30
gng jck
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 8/1 3Fav
WR% = 3.0

Picks list:
1617572909399.png

Due for a win from the 5/6f runners - well overdue a win from the *** runners. I'm beginning to suspect that the shade of Dick Francis might be at work here, because the results are definitely looking like one of those arrangements where a crook has one or more people in the yards slipping drugs into horses and possibly getting the Clairol hair dye out to change one horse into another - these days there'd be a drone involved somehow too. How else to explain days like Friday only to be followed by this luckless Easter weekend? Okay, some people will quote stats on expected losing runs, but I know what I read in a good few DF books.

Consequently I shall be watching a few of these races to see if I can spot any of the usual characters in the periphery while the racing takes place - a fat bloke smoking cigars who has a posh car, a somewhat flashy bottle blonde younger wife, a decent but struggling trainer who has been subverted by blackmail - possibly with a pretty younger wife also, and an amateur detective with one leg who is on good terms with the jockeys - one or two of whom are on the take - as he used to be a talented amateur jockey himself. Should this chap end up suspended by the wrists in one of the racecourse stables being tattooed with a soldering iron after the final race I shall know I am on to something.

I expect, if any of these suspect characters read the above, plans for tomorrow will be put on hold and several of the picks will win, in an attempt to show there was nothing untoward going on, but we will know different, won't we? Taps nose knowingly....

Dave
 

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