• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a 20% discount on Inform Racing.
    Simply enter the coupon code ukbettingform when subscribing here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Inform Racing so help is always available if needed.
    Best Wishes
    AR
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR

Early days

markfinn

Sire
Carra the dog had a nice walk along the prom then back along the beach. he also had a small bit of the Haddock when I ordered a takeaway fish supper for my wife and myself, so he's having a fair day I'd say.

Whatever else happens during the day he makes sure to get his regular outings and treats.
Dave
Next you are on the prom near the Kiddies paddling pool have a look you will find my dads bench - loved it there and is not to far from his mate Les
 

davejb

Mare
Commemorative benches seem popular on the prom, they certainly get plenty of use.
Report for : 28/02/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/9 Odds: 1.38 2.0 (Return: 5.38)
Mkt filter 2/6 Odds: 1.38 2.0 (Return: 5.38)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/10 Odds: 1.0 0.91 (Return: 3.91)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 1.0 (Return: 2.0)

Total Out = 19 Total return (raw) = 9.29
Total wins: 4 / 19
List of winners:
Fon 14:40:00 High Up In The Air (FR) 2.38
Fon 15:40:00 Fantastikas (FR) 2.0
Fon 16:10:00 Blame The Game (IRE) 3.0
Her 17:20:00 World Of Dreams (IRE) 1.91
Another dull day.
Selections: Only one bet, who was looking a bit unlikely to win in my book a couple out, but the race was stopped so we'll never know if he was going to win or not. The other two were handicaps so no bet, for interest the final one won at 6/4

New Picks: Seem to be good at picking non runners! No surprise really that World of Dreams didn't run, having won yesterday, official excuse was unsuitable ground. That left a jumper and an AW, the jumper (Where's Maud Gone) won at 8/13, the AW runner came 4th.
Overall there's still a tiny bit of profit, but hardly worth counting, with 8 winners from 16 races.

Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Leicester 14:10:00 [NH C] Class 5 [23f] Hcap [[12] run]
11/12 Runners rated
64 * 08PF211 Ring The Moon (Bf 2.75) Drawn 0/12 Gelding
Williams Evan 4-39(11) Wedge Adam 6-40(17) Days : 7
JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 6/4 1Fav
WR% = 19.0

Gowran Park 16:20:00 [NH C] [20f] Stks [[14] run]
8/17 Runners rated
111 * 94FF6U2 Antey (GER) (Bf 3.5) Drawn 0/14 Gelding
Mullins W P 4-13(5) Townend P 6-19(12) Days : 33
gng jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 3/1 2Fav
WR% = 19.0

So that's one bet probably, Antey (8 yo) is forecast to be second favourite to Cedarwood Road - a 6yo - but to be honest whilst Cedarwood Road has a couple of decent hurdle wins under his belt from last year, he's tended to jump left so far over fences and doesn't look half as dangerous as a chaser, so I don't mind giving Antey a go.

New picks:
1614633597500.png
25% win rate for the AW is what I'm looking for, so I hope one of these comes good - it would be awfully nice if the odds weren't too short too. Unfortunately the last pair are up against each other, We Still Believe is up 5lb for his last win while headshot is up 1lb for his 3rd place.... Andrew Mullen was on Headshot that day, but now rides We Still Believe while Headshot has 7lb claimer Frederick Larson (sounds like a cruise company) on board, Hollie Doyle rode him to that third place.
My money is on We Still Believe to beat Headshot in this, so I'm going to call this a single bet and ignore headshot..... we'll see what happens, not least as I am also ignoring likely favourite Cuban Cigar who reunites with Luke Catton.

Not all that easy, is it?
Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
markfinn markfinn - Your Dad's bench is still there, in good nick - we walked past it this afternoon.:)

Report for : 01/03/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/7 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/14 Odds: 3.5 6.0 1.5 (Return: 14.0)
Mkt filter 2/7 Odds: 6.0 1.5 (Return: 9.5)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/7 Odds: 0.53 (Return: 1.53)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 0.53 (Return: 1.53)

Total Out = 30 Total return (raw) = 15.53
Total wins: 4 / 30
List of winners:
Plu 14:40:00 Fairway Freddy (IRE) 4.5
Ayr 15:05:00 Ardera Cross (IRE) 7.0
Ayr 16:10:00 Sirwilliamwallace (IRE) 2.5
Ayr 17:10:00 Wheres Maud Gone (IRE) 1.53

Another fairly rubbish day then. Today's sole selection, Antey, managed to bang into the last few as well as getting bumped on the run in,. came 2nd. The handicap job came nowhere.

For the new picks, Great Esteem was 2nd by a half length, got run out of it at the finish. Headshot beat We Still Believe, and in the end was only beaten a neck when 2nd at 8/1 - so I got that wrong! Made a day to forget all round, as my own horse Asdaa came 5th in the 6.00 at Newcastle - they went no speed at all until past halfway, and he needs a decent gallop and the full 8f, so no surprises he totally lacked finishing speed and went from 2nd to 5th at the end. He earned £300 which is better than nothing of course!


Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Musselburgh 13:50:00 [NH H] Class 5 [20f] Hcap [[15] run]
14/15 Runners rated
79 * 276P984 Evas Diva (IRE) (Bf 15) Drawn 0/15 Mare
Jeffreys D J 2-5(0) Woods K K 2-29(7) Days : 73
Passes: Stable Odds
Fails: Form
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 6/1 3Fav
WR% = 13.0

Musselburgh 14:25:00 [NH C] Class 5 [24f] Hcap [[6] run]
4/6 Runners rated
72 * 41P8322 Not The Chablis (IRE) (Bf 3.5) Drawn 0/6 Gelding
Alexander N W 2-25(8) Quinlan Sean 2-31(11) Days : 40
jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/4 1Fav
WR% = 13.0

Wincanton 15:10:00 [NH H] Class 4 [22f] Hcap [[17] run]
16/18 Runners rated
80 * 60402 Grand Lord (FR) (Bf 13) Drawn 0/17 Gelding
Edmunds Stuart 1-2(0) Gethings Ciaran 2-15(5) Days : 46
jck
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/1 4Fav
WR% = 18.0

Musselburgh 16:35:00 [NH C] Class 5 [22f] Stks [[10] run]
2/11 Runners rated
38 * 6553137 Captain Bucks (FR) (Bf 1.67) Drawn 0/10 Gelding
Loxton S 1-1(0) Cobden Harry 7-47(26) Days : 183 !!! ALERT !!!
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 4/7 1Fav
WR% = 31.0

Lingfield AW 16:55:00 [AW] Class 6 [7f] Stks [[10] run]
7/10 Runners rated
42 * 4642 He Can Dance (IRE) (Bf 2.88) Drawn 10/10 Gelding
Kirk S 1-3(0) Curtis B A 7-42(18) Days : 25
gng dst jck
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
AW non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 5/4 1Fav
WR% = 23.0

There's only one there, He Can Dance, that is actually passing the checks - Captain Bucks hasn't actually been off the track for 6 months because he switched stables in September then went point to pointing at Larkhill in December (he came 3rd in a ladies open race) - now he's in for this hunter chase. I really don't fancy him at the odds being forecast, around 4/6 - 4/7, not least because he only managed to win one chase from 15 when taking a class 4 handicap chase for Paul Nicholls last July.... I'm not saying he can't win, he's certainly a good bet for a place, but those odds are a bit risible in my view. He'll probably win, but not with my money to hold him back!

Picks for tomorrow - and we want the jumper to win here as while the win rate is okay the odds have been useless.... getting the AW handicapper up as well would be both nice and it's about time an AW pick won (4 having lost lately).

1614719373753.png

Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
Report for : 02/03/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/7 Odds: 3.5 (Return: 4.5)
Mkt filter 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/10 Odds: 7.0 (Return: 8.0)
Mkt filter 1/7 Odds: 7.0 (Return: 8.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/9 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 27 Total return (raw) = 12.5
Total wins: 2 / 27
List of winners:
New 16:00:00 Carnwennan (IRE) 4.5
Lei 14:40:00 Doukarov (FR) 8.0

The beatings will continue until morale improves.....

Today's selections amounted to a winner at 10/11 and a non runner. Captain Bucks won, not unexpectedly of course but even 10/11 wasn't that generous in my view. Still, a winner is a winner. Of the (no bet) handicap races there was a winner at evens, a 9/2 3rd, and a nowhere.

New picks: There were two of these, Presentandcounting could only manage 2nd at 8/13F - finished a couple of lengths behind the winner (who he was not going to beat) and twenty or so ahead of the third. Merweb, the handicap runner at Kempton, got up in a beautfully timed effort... there must have been 4 of them on the line with a nostril between them all, but he'd got to the front in the final furlong and managed to hold on for the line, which probably came none too soon! Having won at 11/1 this winner puts the picks into the black quite nicely!

Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Taunton 13:55:00 [NH H] Class 4 [19f] Stks [[14] run]
9/14 Runners rated
76 * 1106706 Just In Time (Bf 5) Drawn 0/14 Gelding
King A 4-25(6) Cannon Tom J 4-29(15) Days : 65
Passes: Stable Odds
Fails: Form
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/4 1Fav
WR% = 20.0

Clonmel 14:20:00 [NH C] [20f] Stks [[14] run]
2/15 Runners rated
75 * 2168423 Avellino (IRE) (Bf 2.75) Drawn 0/14 Mare
McLoughlin D A 0-7(2) Power R M 1-9(1) Days : 24
gng or
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 13/8 1Fav
WR% = 16.0

Taunton 14:30:00 [NH H] Class 5 [19f] Stks [[8] run]
6/8 Runners rated
64 * 5111510 Paricolor (FR) (Bf 2.5) Drawn 0/8 Gelding
Pipe D E 3-32(8) Gillard Fergus 1-14(4) Days : 12
GNG JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET Evs 1Fav
WR% = 20.0

Clonmel 14:55:00 [NH C] [20f] Stks [[14] run]
6/14 Runners rated
90 * 7158332 Brawler (IRE) (Bf 3.5) Drawn 0/14 Gelding
Murphy Ciaran 0-2(1) Orr Conor 0-7(3) Days : 51
gng dst jck or
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/4 1Fav
WR% = 16.0

Clonmel 16:35:00 [NH C] [23f] Hcap [[14] run]
12/14 Runners rated
64 * 5020424 Goulane Jessie (IRE) (Bf 4) Drawn 0/14 Mare
Spillane Seamus 0-2(0) Foley Barry 0-10(0) Days : 5
gng jck
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/1 2Fav
WR% = 2 0

Clonmel 17:05:00 [NH C] [20f] Stks [[14] run]
1/14 Runners rated
27 * 952P2 Saint Benedict (IRE) (Bf 1.57) Drawn 0/14 Gelding
Bolger E 2-3(1) Swan H C 0-2(0) Days : 44
gng dst jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 8/11 1Fav
WR% = 16.0

Some of these are in races against as yet unrated runners, so I'd be a little cautious - generally speaking they're forecast favourites which suggests they are 'okay' but not something to have a large wad on.

New picks:
1614805830798.png
Again we have one of each - a jumping selection and a AW handicapper. Stats wise we are still waiting for the next jumps winner, whilst most of this week's luck probably rode on Merweb in tonight's 8.20, so we'll see what comes to pass.
Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
Report for : 03/03/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/10 Odds: 5.0 14.0 11.0 (Return: 33.0)
Mkt filter 2/6 Odds: 5.0 11.0 (Return: 18.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/8 Odds: 3.33 0.8 (Return: 6.13)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 3.33 (Return: 4.33)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/9 Odds: 1.0 (Return: 2.0)
Mkt filter 1/6 Odds: 1.0 (Return: 2.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/6 Odds: 0.91 (Return: 1.91)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 0.91 (Return: 1.91)

Total Out = 33 Total return (raw) = 43.04
Total wins: 7 / 33
List of winners:
Lin 16:25:00 Shaqeeqa 4.33
Lin 16:55:00 Berties Wish (IRE) 1.8
Lin 17:25:00 Everkyllachy (IRE) 6.0
Kem 19:20:00 Sir Titan 15.0
Kem 20:20:00 Merweb (IRE) 12.0
Mus 14:25:00 Not The Chablis (IRE) 2.0
Mus 16:35:00 Captain Bucks (FR) 1.91

Aha, I knew the beatings would improve morale in the end. A modest but welcome profit there then.
The selections - 3rd, w4/7 so no bet, 0. 2nd 6/5, 2nd 4/7 (St Benedict) and a duck egg for the handicap. nobody getting rich there then.
The new picks - two bets, the jumper won at 11/4, the AW handicapper was beaten a length at 4/1. So a small profit on the day then.

As I mentioned a week or so back the 'selections' are proving very hit and miss using the new ratings, but I still have hopes that the new picks will prove a decent replacement.... needless to say there'll be a lengthy hiccup when the flat kicks in but let's hope for some good days between now and then.


Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Fairyhouse 13:35:00 [NH H] [16f] Stks [[15] run]
8/18 Runners rated
72 * 2523262 Hamundarson (IRE) (Bf 2.5) Drawn 0/15 Gelding
Elliott Gordon 13-43(13) Kennedy J W 7-20(14) Days : 18
dst jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 15/8 2Fav
WR% = 12.0

Doncaster 16:00:00 [NH H] Class 4 [19.5f] Stks [[7] run]
7/7 Runners rated
84 * 0423334 Saturn n Silk (Bf 5) Drawn 0/7 Mare
Scudamore M J 2-10(4) Carver Bryan 3-18(7) Days : 46
gng or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 100/30 2Fav
WR% = 22.0

Doncaster 17:35:00 [NH C] Class 3 [24f] Hcap [[8] run]
7/8 Runners rated
101 * 6552253 Ozzy Thomas (IRE) (Bf 3.25) Drawn 0/8 Gelding
Oliver Henry 1-7(1) Edwards Alex 1-11(4) Days : 111 !!! ALERT !!!
or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/2 2Fav
WR% = 11.0

Right, the first one is forecast 2nd fav to a Mullins runner that ran 3rd of 3 in France in a 3yo hurdle in September. I can't say the likely favourite has me all that worried, and I think Hamundarson has a decent chance. The Elliot stable, on the other hand, is probably not firing on all cylinders just now so how big an impact that might have on his runner I don't know. Then of course there are folk who swear they won't bet on the Elliot runners anyhow - he had two fifths and two pulled up today at Clonmel, which isn't a stellar performance but then it's only a small sample of the stable, isn't it?

Saturn N Silk looks like 'always the bridesmaid, never the bride' a bit to me, a 2nd and 3 third places from 7 runs so far means she is contributing to her keep but doesn't look like a world beater. The likely favourite fell last time out where she was looking good before falling at the last - her comment includes the information that she 'flashed her tail' when a length up going to the last, and that's normally a sign that the horse is inclined to be less than straightforward in the battling department, for this reason and the consideration that she might not be all that happy at falling lto, I'm rather against the favourite too. Aggy With It looks a better prospect, sadly giving a stone to almost all the others, so I guess that's a no bet from me - I'm sure ONE of them will win in the end, but I've got good reasons for doubting the most likely contenders!

For the picks: There are none. For interest only -
1614895469561.png
- these 4 would be picked if they weren't in sprint races, my stats so far shows these runners to be no better than breakeven over time, and probably not even as good as that. Lacking anything else worth looking at however I thought I'd put them up just so we can see how they get on - will they all lose?
Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
Report for : 04/03/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/11 Odds: 4.0 3.0 (Return: 9.0)
Mkt filter 2/5 Odds: 4.0 3.0 (Return: 9.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/4 Odds: 1.2 1.75 2.5 (Return: 8.45)
Mkt filter 2/2 Odds: 1.2 2.5 (Return: 5.7)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/12 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/6 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/8 Odds: 0.57 2.75 (Return: 5.32)
Mkt filter 1/5 Odds: 0.57 (Return: 1.57)

Total Out = 35 Total return (raw) = 22.77
Total wins: 7 / 35
List of winners:
Sou 13:40:00 Mr Excellency (IRE) 2.2
Sou 14:15:00 Stone Soldier 5.0
Sou 15:25:00 Jeans Maite 4.0
Che 18:20:00 Khuzaam (USA) 2.75
Che 18:50:00 Tavrina 3.5
Clo 14:20:00 Avellino (IRE) 1.57
Tau 17:12:00 Luttrell Lad (IRE) 3.75

Normal sort of day I suppose.... bit bland, bit like my old school reports - 'could try harder'.
(Follow up report - 'Sorry, it appears I was wrong, no he couldn't')

Selections today - three placed, not unexpectedly really.
new picks - despite being sprinters two of the two won, 11/1 and 4/1 - I'll be keeping an eye on these as the original picks showing the shorter trips didn't do as well as 8F+ races was over a fairly small time period, it may just be that the sprint races were down over that period and are bouncing back, who knows? Whatever the case I'm keeping tabs on the various picks to see how they pan out over time.


Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Kelso 12:55:00 [NH C] Class 5 [17f] Hcap [[8] run]
8/8 Runners rated
68 * 9566824 Fourth Of July (IRE) (Bf 5) Drawn 0/8 Gelding
Smith R Michael 0-7(0) Mania Ryan 3-25(9) Days : 43
or
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/2 1Fav
WR% = 13.0

Navan 13:40:00 [NH H] [16f] Stks [[20] run]
4/20 Runners rated
55 * 21253 Ilmig (IRE) (Bf 3.5) Drawn 0/20 Gelding
Harrington Mrs John 0-7(0) Power R M 2-8(2) Days : 69
dst
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/2 1Fav
WR% = 13.0

Navan 14:13:00 [NH H] [16f] Stks [[19] run]
5/19 Runners rated
75 * 31734P3 Dreamingandhoping (IRE) (Bf 4.5) Drawn 0/19 Mare
Queally Declan 0-7(3) Queally Mr D L 0-5(3) Days : 21
dst jck or
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 4/1 3Fav
WR% = 13.0

Kelso 14:40:00 [NH C] Listed Race [23.5f] Stks [[6] run]
6/6 Runners rated
126 * 35477F2 Aso (FR) (Bf 3.5) Drawn 0/6 Gelding
Williams Miss Venetia 6-35(12) Deutsch Charlie 3-27(11) Days : 19
jck
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/4 2Fav
WR% = 42.0

The 1.30 is a race with very little form to go on, very few runs all round, and to be honest I don't fancy it at all. Ilmig might well win it, but it's a bit of a guessing game in my book, one I'd prefer to leave to those who know more than I ever will about the runners involved.

The 2.13 race is a no bet for me, far too many runners with little bar the odd unplaced run to have any faith in the ratings being an accurate reflection of ability.

Aso last won a bit over 2 years back, and had been off a while before coming out in mid February to run a decent second over a quarter mile shorter, finishing well. A faller in December when tackling 3m 2f at Aintree over the national course in the Becher Chase, stamina isn't an issue. Lots will be hoping the National favourite, Cloth Cap, takes this but I like the Williams/Deutsch combo on days like this so I figure Aso is in with a decent hope.... not a bad horse at all, although now an 11 yo so probably not got many big days to look forward to.

So for me only Aso is a bet, and that's not a confident one really - a bit of a gamble but hopefully at a reasonable price.

Picks:
1614978228289.png

Only one jumper in there, along with 6 AW handicappers - this should hopefully give us a bit more data to decide how things are going for this process.

The sprint runners:
1614978346156.png
I'm putting these on for watching, basically, just to see if we can decide that today's wins were a bit of a fluke rather than a source of instant wealth!

Results for anything to do with horse racing predictions will always tend to be a bit stop start, what matters in the end is quite simple - can we make a profit from level stakes on them? We expect to see winners clumping sometimes, periods where nothing wins, and every variation in between, so it'll take a good while before we can be confident of what's really going on. In the meantime these runners do seem to be worth watching, ie both 'pick' lists, it's quite noticeable that - apart from actually showing a fair profit over the short period they've been running - a fair few of the losers actually get placed, sometimes rather close to the winner, so we do seem to be picking live contenders in most races at the very least.

Gordon Elliot got 12 months suspended license, although if he stays on the right side of the IHRB that'll last 6 months, all told he'll not have runners at Cheltenham or the National meeting, amongst other big events such as Punchestown's spring festival and the irish national in his native Ireland. Given the knock on effects on his staff and others I can't find it in me to want him flogged round the fleet for what was an absurd stun. Having been a supernumary hay carrier (third class, acting, unpaid) for my wife as she bred horses until a couple of years back - we had 9 in the fields at our old house, age and the fact they wouldn't fit into our current flat curtailed what for her was an absorbing hobby but a little less so for myself - I find it hard to feel anything but condemnation for the idiot, but I don't think it's something to destroy a life over.

I'm just bewildered, how did sitting on the poor horse do anything? It wasn't humorous, that's for sure, so what was the point of it? I feel for the staff - and to a degree the owners who have had this to deal with just as they were probably looking for a bit of decent jumping action before the flat kicks off.

We still have the amateur jockey sitting on a dead horse to come of course - how on Earth two such stories came about in rapid succession I cannot fathom, is it something like planking that is going on? A new Tik Tok craze I'm unaware of? Will Olly on ITV''s morning show be shamefully confessing all next?

Let's all get back to normal racing... and hope this blows over without doing further harm to the sport.
Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
Report for : 05/03/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/15 Odds: 11.0 4.0 3.5 (Return: 21.5)
Mkt filter 2/9 Odds: 11.0 4.0 (Return: 17.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/8 Odds: 1.5 1.38 (Return: 4.88)
Mkt filter 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/11 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/5 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/11 Odds: 4.0 1.38 80.0 (Return: 88.38)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 1.38 (Return: 2.38)

Total Out = 45 Total return (raw) = 114.76
Total wins: 8 / 45
List of winners:
Lin 13:00:00 Princesse Animale 2.5
New 17:15:00 Dirham Emirati (IRE) 2.38
New 17:45:00 Marta Boy 12.0
New 19:45:00 Devils Angel 5.0
Dun 20:30:00 Stop On Red (IRE) 4.5
Fai 14:05:00 Five Helmets (IRE) 5.0
Fai 15:15:00 Ciao Bella (FR) 2.38
Fai 15:50:00 The Brimming Water (IRE) 81.0

Hmm, approx 70pts level stakes profit, not bad for a change.... as you can see it was really just the somewhat flukey pick of 'The Brimming Water' at Fairyhouse that did the trick, an 80/1 winner will generally tend to make things look a bit rosier I always think :D
Not a complete fluke, he was the only positive rating in the race - half the runners were unrated, the rest were rated below zero (ie they ran rather slowly on previous outings). I wouldn't bet the farm on picks like this one, which seems to have even caught the trainer unawares, although he opened at 150/1 so somebody slapped a fiver each way on him...

Today's selections:
only the first one, the no bet handicap, won - at 16/5. There was a 3rd, a nowhere, and a non runner.
The picks again worked out well, the first 3 lost (two 3rds, 17/2 and 11/4, and a nowhere) so that was a 3rd place for the sole NH non handicap bet, but then the winners of the 5.30, 6.30, 7.30 and 8.00 at Southwell won for the AW handicaps, at odds of3/1, 16/5, 11/10 and 7/2. The separate list of sprinters saw three picks - the first won at 6/1, the second came 2nd by a head at 4/1, and the third came third (rather nice symmetry there at least) at 5/2.

If the sprinters continue to do well then I will amalgamate them back into the main list, but not for a while yet as I want to be sure this isn't just a quick run of luck that peters out after a week of good runs.

These 'new picks' are doing very well now, and I am beginning to look at them as an alternative to the 'selections' - the selections are still throwing the odd winner up, but not many and the odds are low. The 'new picks', since I started collecting the results in a spreadsheet, have produced 13 winners from 30 races (43% win rate) and a level stake return of 48.99 from 30 staked, which is a profit of 63.3%.

The sprinters I have only collected for a couple of days, they are on 3 wins from 7 returning 24 pts for 7 staked, which would be pretty marvellous if that were a couple of months results!

Tomorrow there are no sprinters in the mix, and no AW of course, so it's all NH non handicap bets for the day (that's why there is no eps chart for tomorrow of course):

1615064759539.png

About the only downbeat note, my horse Glynn ran another shocker, decided he didn't like running again - either there is something physically wrong with him... Nicky Henderson has had Glynn's breathing checked and go the all clear .... or his head is wrong for racing, it's a bit of a worry as my other jump horse 'The Greater Good' fell on his first outing, hurt his back, and had to retire, so my jumpers have been a bit disappointing. Asdaa, my flat handicapper, runs good honest races for the most part, he needs a fairly strong pace though over a mile as he lacks finishing speed and in slow paced races he just gets swamped in the final furlong or so... he does best coming off the final bend in front with a length or two nicked from the field. Still, with each horse costing about £50 or less a year it's not a major investment and I do get to celebrate winners now and again.

Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
Report for : 06/03/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 6/11 Odds: 2.5 6.0 3.0 3.0 1.1 3.5 (Return: 25.1)
Mkt filter 5/8 Odds: 6.0 3.0 3.0 1.1 3.5 (Return: 21.6)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/4 Odds: 0.62 (Return: 1.62)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/16 Odds: 3.0 4.5 3.0 (Return: 13.5)
Mkt filter 3/8 Odds: 3.0 4.5 3.0 (Return: 13.5)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/12 Odds: 0.14 1.2 (Return: 3.34)
Mkt filter 2/8 Odds: 0.14 1.2 (Return: 3.34)

Total Out = 43 Total return (raw) = 43.56
Total wins: 12 / 43
List of winners:
Lin 11:45:00 Glasvegas (IRE) 3.5
Lin 12:50:00 Thegreyvtrain 7.0
Lin 14:36:00 Breath Of Sun 1.62
Sou 17:30:00 Native Silver 4.0
Sou 18:30:00 Ravenscar (IRE) 4.0
Sou 19:30:00 Kangaroo Point (IRE) 2.1
Sou 20:00:00 My Brother Mike (IRE) 4.5
Kel 12:55:00 Fourth Of July (IRE) 4.0
New 15:05:00 Iron Heart 5.5
New 15:40:00 Hitman (FR) 1.14
Nav 15:58:00 Scarlet And Dove (IRE) 2.2
Don 16:05:00 Small Present (IRE) 4.0

Okay kind of day then, tiny profit.
Today's selection were a bit dismal sadly, Marada won at evens as the first of the list, but then we had a 2nd, a non runner, and a nowhere. (The sole handicap runner also failed to place). In the new picks all three of them lost, only Supremely Lucky placed - coming second. On the bonus side I completely forgot to actually post the list on here, so a lucky escape for everyone.


Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Leopardstown 13:50:00 [NH H] [16f] Stks [[17] run]
6/17 Runners rated
85 * 2332 Don Diablo (IRE) (Bf 2.75) Drawn 0/17 Gelding
Elliott Gordon 12-50(15) Kennedy J W 9-28(18) Days : 23
dst jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/10 1Fav
WR% = 19.0

Leopardstown 14:20:00 [NH H] [16f] Stks [[6] run]
4/6 Runners rated
88 * 22121 Eurotiep (FR) (Bf 1.8) Drawn 0/6 Gelding
Mullins W P 6-21(6) McMahon Mr A 0-0(0) Days : 40
DST JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 8/13 1Fav
WR% = 19.0

Leopardstown 16:00:00 [NH C] [17f] Stks [[12] run]
8/12 Runners rated
105 * 14U33F3 Jungle Junction (IRE) (Bf 8) Drawn 0/12 Gelding
Harrington Mrs John 1-10(0) Power R M 3-12(3) Days : 39
dst jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/1 3Fav
WR% = 19.0

A Gordon Elliot runner to kick off with then - I presume his ban will kick in sometime soon, unless they intend to keep his name on the cards while he takes a back seat for 6 months. Probably odds on and a no bet anyhow. Same for Eurotiep, likely to go off even shorter than Don Diablo. This leaves Jungle Junction as the only likely bet, the Racing Post has Breaken as forecast favourite - a horse that has been off the track 15 months when he fell last time out. To be fair the horse was absolutely romping away with a beginners chase just like this one today at the time, but clearly the horse has taken a good while to get back to the track and I think it's a bit of an ask to expect him to trot up as if nothing untoward had happened. Breaken might well win, I doubt his odds will be very generous, and I'm thinking that a nice hot favourite who is perhaps a bity vulnerable on reappearance might allow a little value lower in the betting. (Or not :D )

For the picks - first batch is the *** NH non handicap /AW handicap over 8f+ list, under it is the 'sprinters' list of (***) runners over 5-7f....

1615151192941.png
1615151221948.png

Here's hoping for a few winners, 2 or 3 would be nice!
Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
I don't know why Sundays are so poor so often....

Report for : 07/03/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/11 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/5 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/8 Odds: 1.0 (Return: 2.0)
Mkt filter 1/4 Odds: 1.0 (Return: 2.0)

Total Out = 19 Total return (raw) = 2.0
Total wins: 1 / 19
List of winners:
Hun 14:00:00 Marada 2.0

I winner at evens, from 19 races! Good grief!
The selections today were a non event, rwo non runners and a (winning) 1/6 favourite, so no bets.
The picks did better - the first pair I didn't bet on, and okay they both won, but at 1/9F and 1/6F (the same Eurotiep as featured in the selections) there was little point putting any actual money down. That left three to run, the first two lost, but the third and last pick won at 17/2. So the new picks are still doing okay, and as the sprint handicaps seem to be contributing every bit as much as the non handicaps I'm going to combine them into a single list from now on. As I've been running these separately up to now I won't just add the sprint results so far to the rest, but I'll be doing that from now on for the purposes of calculating win rates and ROI etc.


Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Exeter 13:00:00 [NH C] Class 4 [19f] Hcap [[16] run]
16/16 Runners rated
86 * P00651 Five Star Getaway (IRE) (Bf 4.5) Drawn 0/16 Gelding
Williams Christian 2-6(1) Tudor Jack 2-14(6) Days : 6
JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/4 1Fav
WR% = 18.0

Clonmel 16:30:00 [NH H] [19f] Hcap [[10] run]
9/10 Runners rated
65 * 000612 Westy Fox (IRE) (Bf 6.5) Drawn 0/10 Gelding
Dreaper J T R 1-5(2) Donoghue K M 0-17(6) Days : 16
JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/1 2Fav
WR% = 5 0

Southwell AW 17:10:00 [AW] Class 5 [5f] Stks [[8] run]
4/8 Runners rated
60 * 3732 High Security (Bf 2.5) Drawn 2/8 Gelding
Tinkler N 0-2(1) Eaves Tom 1-10(5) Days : 146 !!! ALERT !!!
dst
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
AW non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 15/8 2Fav
WR% = 27.0

Just the one at Southwell then.

For the picks:
1615237230674.png

For future reference, the existing 'picks' record is 16 winners from 36 runners (44%) returning 51.27 from 36 staked, ROI 142%. As I don't want to erase everything and start again from scratch I'll be adding future results to this existing record, that way it's easier for me to keep tabs on how this new method is doing - it's fair enough I'd say, as I'm omitting the sprint returns (4/9 wins = 44%, return 31.50 from 9 staked = ROI of 350%) that would make it all look a bit more spectacular, and at the end of the day these bets have been posted on here over the past couple of weeks.


Dave
 

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