• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a 20% discount on Inform Racing.
    Simply enter the coupon code ukbettingform when subscribing here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Inform Racing so help is always available if needed.
    Best Wishes
    AR
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR

Early days

davejb

Mare
Report for : 21/02/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/12 Odds: 6.0 (Return: 7.0)
Mkt filter 1/7 Odds: 6.0 (Return: 7.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 5/14 Odds: 1.38 1.25 1.63 1.5 2.5 (Return: 13.26)
Mkt filter 4/8 Odds: 1.38 1.25 1.63 2.5 (Return: 10.76)

Total Out = 26 Total return (raw) = 20.26
Total wins: 6 / 26
List of winners:
Mar 13:00:00 Homme Public (FR) 2.38
Nav 13:05:00 Coko Beach (FR) 2.25
Mar 14:05:00 Minella Drama (IRE) 2.63
Mar 14:40:00 Martello Sky 2.5
Utt 15:07:00 Happy Hollow 3.5
Utt 16:17:00 Eaton Miller (IRE) 7.0

Today's bets - well Falco Blitz was the only winner, at 15/8, not that he was a bet as handicaps are off the menu just now. Yauthym was a bit unlucky, looked the winner 2 out, was being challenged at the last when falling - to be honest I don't think she was going to win, although level she was fighting back at the eventual winner I got the impression she wasn't quite as tough, but it's a close call. Ulveston went down in a tight finish too, so overall it was a winner (handicap) and two close calls that didn't pan out. Never mind, the luck runs the other way sometimes.


Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Taunton 13:00:00 [NH H] Class 4 [19f] Stks [[12] run]
7/12 Runners rated
81 * 2723312 Global Harmony (IRE) (Bf 4.5) Drawn 0/12 Mare
Skelton Daniel 13-44(13) Skelton Harry 14-40(23) Days : 59
dst JCK or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/1 3Fav
WR% = 21.0

Taunton 15:05:00 [NH C] Class 4 [23f] Hcap [[8] run]
7/8 Runners rated
91 * 65335F2 Storm Home (IRE) (Bf 2.75) Drawn 0/8 Gelding
Tizzard C L 1-26(1) Kimber Harry 0-4(0) Days : 75
dst jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/2 1Fav
WR% = 14.0

Taunton 15:40:00 [NH H] Class 5 [24f] Hcap [[17] run]
15/17 Runners rated
70 * 449582 Follow That (Bf 5) Drawn 0/17 Mare
Murphy Olly 3-29(5) Coleman A 3-21(10) Days : 31

Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 4/1 1Fav
WR% = 14.0

Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
Report for : 22/02/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/6 Odds: 1.63 6.0 (Return: 9.63)
Mkt filter 2/4 Odds: 1.63 6.0 (Return: 9.63)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/2 Odds: 1.63 (Return: 2.63)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 1.63 (Return: 2.63)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/9 Odds: 3.0 1.88 7.5 (Return: 15.38)
Mkt filter 3/7 Odds: 3.0 1.88 7.5 (Return: 15.38)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/9 Odds: 0.44 (Return: 1.44)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 0.44 (Return: 1.44)

Total Out = 26 Total return (raw) = 29.08
Total wins: 7 / 26
List of winners:
Wol 16:40:00 Tributo (IRE) 2.63
Wol 17:10:00 Futuristic (IRE) 2.63
Wol 17:40:00 Enaitchess (IRE) 7.0
Car 13:35:00 Scottish Accent (IRE) 4.0
Sou 13:45:00 Falco Blitz (IRE) 2.88
Sou 15:20:00 Gold Runner (IRE) 8.5
Fai 16:00:00 Folcano (FR) 1.44

Slightly up again then.
Today there was a single bet, which came 4th. The two handicaps both came 2nd,

Continuing to check the old ratings against the new ones, I have a quick spreadsheet of wins/runs/returns for the past 36 days efforts. The old ratings have a 15.1% win rate, 63% ROI while the new ratings win rate has been 20.5% ROI 93.5%. The new ratings have been profitable on 17 of the past 36 days, compared to 3 days for the old ratings. It's very tempting at this point to just look for a simple filter like 'don't back odds on' or 'don't back 20/1+' which will instantly turn the results positive - with an ROI of 93.5% it wouldn't take much of an improvement in the strike rate to achieve this - but I'm playing the long game as usual and I will continue to accumulate data before trying to figure out anything serious.

What I have decided is that the handicaps are not paying, their win rate is about 14% over the past 2months with an ROI of 73% - non handicaps figures are WR25% ROI 97.4% in contrast. If you take the past couple of months and bet only on the top rated runners in non handicaps that were placed in the first 3 on their last outing then you'd have had 180 bets, 58 winners, which is a 32% win rate and an ROI of 102.5%. I'd be guessing that having a stable that has had a few placed (or better yet, winning) runners in the past fortnight might up these numbers, also that '1-2-3 last time out' is a pretty gross check - for example it might be worth checking how many runners were involved lto, as there's not a huge amount of merit in coming 3rd of 3! I don't think allowing more places for bigger fields helps, so stick to the 1,2,3 and maybe discount runs that didn't actually finish with the runner being on the podium cheering,

That's for the jumps by the way, I need to take a look at how the AW has been doing yet, but not tonight.

Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Punchestown 14:10:00 [NH H] Grade 3 [20f] Stks [[4] run]
3/4 Runners rated
109 * 3P24222 Global Equity (IRE) (Bf 4.5) Drawn 0/4 Mare
OBrien Joseph Patrick 2-30(14) Slevin J J 0-6(2) Days : 3
gng jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 13/8 1Fav
WR% = 10.0

Punchestown 15:20:00 [NH H] [16f] Stks [[14] run]
7/17 Runners rated
81 * 011373 Micro Manage (IRE) (Bf 1.8) Drawn 0/14 Gelding
Mullins W P 6-17(4) Townend P 3-15(9) Days : 60
dst or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 13/8 1Fav
WR% = 10.0

Punchestown 15:55:00 [NH H] [24f] Hcap [[14] run]
14/17 Runners rated
103 * 4311F35 Alohamora (IRE) (Bf 999) Drawn 0/14 Mare
Nash J A 0-2(1) 0-0(0) Days : 39
gng or
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 13/8 1Fav
WR% = 17.0

Doncaster 16:05:00 [NH H] Class 3 [24.5f] Hcap [[10] run]
9/10 Runners rated
90 * 1711212 Supakalanistic (IRE) (Bf 5) Drawn 0/10 Gelding
Twiston-Davies N A 3-29(6) Nailor Jordan 1-9(2) Days : 23
DST
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/1 2Fav
WR% = 12.0

Punchestown 16:55:00 [NH H] [20f] Hcap [[14] run]
13/17 Runners rated
63 * 7683 Junior Rattler (IRE) (Bf 7.5) Drawn 0/14 Gelding
McKiernan Oliver 0-5(1) Browne Barry 0-5(2) Days : 57
gng
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 13/8 1Fav
WR% = 17.0


So two probable bets there, win rate is pretty lousy though. (It's noticeable that the Punchestown handicap win rate is 27% compared to the non-handicap 10%, which is a bit of an inversion of how things usually go. )

Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
Report for : 23/02/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/5 Odds: 1.88 (Return: 2.88)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 1.88 (Return: 2.88)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/10 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/6 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/4 Odds: 1.25 (Return: 2.25)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 22 Total return (raw) = 5.13
Total wins: 2 / 22
List of winners:
New 19:40:00 Kind Review 2.88
Wet 16:30:00 Duhallow Tornado (IRE) 2.25

An unusually crap day there then! Today's bets were all abandoned - the handicap that did run at Doncaster the runner came 2nd at 7/1.

I'll do the usual first, then say a bit about my preliminary guesses - err - in depth analysis of results:

Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Huntingdon 13:00:00 [NH H] Class 4 [21f] Stks [[14] run]
8/15 Runners rated
88 * 320272 Lady Of The Night (Bf 3.5) Drawn 0/14 Mare
Bailey K C 6-13(2) Bass David 6-17(9) Days : 70
jck
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/2 2Fav
WR% = 29.0

Chepstow 13:20:00 [NH H] Class 4 [19.5f] Stks [[14] run]
8/14 Runners rated
77 * 252223 Champagne Rhythm (IRE) (Bf 3.75) Drawn 0/14 Gelding
Williams Evan 3-26(5) Williams Isabel 0-3(0) Days : 36
gng dst jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/2 2Fav
WR% = 20.0

Chepstow 14:57:00 [NH H] Class 2 [23.5f] Hcap [[6] run]
3/6 Runners rated
91 * 1500842 Poker Play (FR) (Bf 2.75) Drawn 0/6 Gelding
Pipe D E 6-29(3) Gillard Fergus 1-10(2) Days : 31
gng jck
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 2/1 1Fav
WR% = 11.0

Chepstow 16:00:00 [NH C] Class 5 [26f] Hcap [[10] run]
9/10 Runners rated
63 * 12U3262 Jurys Out (IRE) (Bf 5.5) Drawn 0/10 Gelding
Williams Miss Venetia 3-32(11) Deutsch Charlie 3-21(8) Days : 47
dst jck
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 4/1 1Fav
WR% = 11.0

Thurles 16:55:00 [NH H] [16.5f] Hcap [[16] run]
10/16 Runners rated
56 * 003F471 Fighting Fit (Bf 3.5) Drawn 0/16 Gelding
Dempsey J P 1-3(0) OConnor Miss A B 0-1(0) Days : 76
GNG DST OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 100/30 1Fav
WR% = 6.0

Possibly three there then.

Now for my head scratchings.
On the AW the non-handicaps don't do well, but, surprisingly, the handicaps aren't too bad. Top rated runners that ran in the first three last time out have produced a small profit with 47 winners from 285 races returning 207.52 - win rate 25.4% ROI 112.2%
These figures improve a bit if 5-7f races are avoided, the 8f + race figures for runners that came 1,2 or 3rd last time out are 23 winners from 89 races returning 109.4 for a WR of 25.8% and ROI 122.9%. Note that top rated runners that finished first 3 last time out cut the number of qualifiers by a significant fraction - 225 races with a top rated runner over 8f+ becomes 89 races when reduced by that 1-3lto check.

On the jumps it's the non handicaps that do better, to the extent that the handicaps are ignored. Again the runner should be top rated (of course) but the filter is even tighter - although the 1-2-3 last time out check produced a miniscule profit it's only those that won on their previous outing that turned a noticeable profit - from 304 races the top rated runners produced a 96.9% ROI, but to nudge that past 100% requires that the runner should have won on their previous outing, this cuts the 304 races down to 53 bets of which 24 won, returning 78.22 for a win rate of 45.3 and an ROI of 147.6%,

That last set of numbers is, in my opinion, more a case of having picked a good period to analyse the results - I would not be at all surprised to see results going forward being far less impressive, it seems to me almost a law of betting that when you find something it's usually about to change for the worse!

Anyhow, for now I'll try to keep tabs on AW handicappers that 1-2-3'd last time out, and for preference are running over a mile or more, and jumpers that are non handicap runners and won on their prior outing. You'd perhaps imagine that such runners tended to be poor odds, but the ROI isn't that bad - the average SP was a bit over 2/1 in the data tested. It's really a first effort to make something from the better ratings, so worth watching for a few weeks to see if there's anything in this.

Tomorrow there are two possibles, both in handicaps at Southwell -
In the 1800 Three Cs and at 1930 Castle Quarter - Three Cs race is over 7f so is a slightly less attractive proposition perhaps than the 8f of the 1930... as far as these stats go. With win rates around the 25% mark both could, of course, flop as we'd only 'expect' one winner from 4 runners anyway, but over time we ought to see the percentages going the right way if there's anything to this. Cross fingers time I guess....

Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
Report for : 24/02/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/15 Odds: 6.0 3.33 (Return: 11.33)
Mkt filter 1/4 Odds: 3.33 (Return: 4.33)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/3 Odds: 2.25 (Return: 3.25)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/7 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/7 Odds: 7.0 1.0 (Return: 10.0)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 1.0 (Return: 2.0)

Total Out = 32 Total return (raw) = 24.58
Total wins: 5 / 32
List of winners:
Sou 14:40:00 Bealach (IRE) 7.0
Kem 17:45:00 Vina Bay 4.33
Kem 18:45:00 Top Fox 3.25
Don 13:45:00 Osprey Call (IRE) 8.0
Don 14:55:00 Patroclus (IRE) 2.0

Bit short again there.
Today's selections - ended up as two bets, onw won at 6/4
The two AW handicap 'possibles' lost, one nowhere the other came 3rd.
I've added an Excel file of the top rated runners along with the usual files, I marked the ones that meet the 'AW 1-2-3 lto handicap/NH non handicap 1st lto' checks with a '***' in the final column. There are 5 NH qualifiers and 2 more in AW handicaps - if the stats work out there ought to be 1 or 2 of the NH coming up and possibly one handicap.... the handicap WR of 25% means winners will probably sort of hiccup along every so often, with the occasional period where perhaps 2 or 3 go in - the downside of which is that you can expect a losing run of rather more than 4 as well, so finding out if the handicaps live up to the hopes could take a while and the first winner could be days off yet. Bear in mind that the first of tomorrow's pair of handicaps is over 7f where the win rate tends to drop a bit as well.
With the non handicap jumps picks I'd expect winners to pop up a bit more regularly, so with 5 tomorrow I'd hope at least one would oblige.

I must stress that this me working on ideas live, so to speak, it's not some done and dusted polished article so please do not expect miracles - I'm just trying to optimise the return from the ratings.

Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Exeter 13:00:00 [NH H] Class 4 [17f] Stks [[11] run]
5/11 Runners rated
67 * P5123 Volkovka (FR) (Bf 2.5) Drawn 0/11 Filly
OBrien Fergal 5-22(6) Brennan P J 8-26(14) Days : 28
gng DST jck
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 4/6 1Fav
WR% = 26.0

Exeter 15:45:00 [NH H] Class 3 [19f] Hcap [[6] run]
6/6 Runners rated
84 * 5512241 Lily The Pink (Bf 5) Drawn 0/6 Mare
Honeyball A J 2-11(2) Godfrey Ben 1-8(2) Days : 43
gng DST JCK
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 9/4 1Fav
WR% = 21.0

Dundalk 18:30:00 [AW] [7f] Stks [[6] run]
3/6 Runners rated
66 * 0704042 Laugh A Minute (Bf 4.5) Drawn 3/6 Gelding
McGuinness Adrian 2-16(5) MacRedmond Cian 0-6(1) Days : 112 !!! ALERT !!!
gng
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
AW non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 2/1 1Fav
WR% = 26.0

Two more again then, possibly the first will be no bet due to price. The second has been off the track for 3-4 months so probably not one to bet the family silver on.
Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
Report for : 25/02/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/5 Odds: 7.5 (Return: 8.5)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 7.5 (Return: 8.5)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 5/19 Odds: 2.25 1.25 3.33 1.1 1.2 (Return: 14.13)
Mkt filter 5/12 Odds: 2.25 1.25 3.33 1.1 1.2 (Return: 14.13)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/9 Odds: 8.0 1.5 0.8 1.5 (Return: 15.8)
Mkt filter 2/3 Odds: 0.8 1.5 (Return: 4.3)

Total Out = 34 Total return (raw) = 38.43
Total wins: 10 / 34
List of winners:
Sou 17:30:00 Smokey 8.5
Hun 12:30:00 Brave Seasca (FR) 9.0
Che 13:20:00 Champagne Rhythm (IRE) 2.5
Hun 13:30:00 Antunes 3.25
Che 13:55:00 Grumpy Charley 2.25
Sed 14:12:00 Democratic Oath (IRE) 1.8
Sed 14:42:00 Furius De Ciergues (FR) 4.33
Sed 15:12:00 Chinwag 2.1
Thu 16:55:00 Fighting Fit 2.2
Thu 17:25:00 Mollys Glory (IRE) 2.5

Quite a good day there really, deserved to make a few more points perhaps from 10 winners but we'll take what we can get.

Today's selections showed a profit, with two bets one of which won at 13/8. Lily the Pink in the (no bet) handicap tried to make just about all and failed to do so by a neck.

Here's the results from trying to find new filters for the new ratings. As explained yesterday the runners making the cut were handicaps on the AW that finished in the top 3 on their prior outing, and non handicap runners over the jumps that had won last time out. Of these AW runners those at less than a mile weren't favoured, although they show a small profit it's the 8f+ races that produced the profits such as they were. I marked these in the '3toprated_26Feb. xlsx' file that I uploaded by putting *** in the final column.

I 'expected' one or two of the NH runners to win and perhaps one of the AW - the results are in of course and they're shown below.

1614374670374.png

With one non runner 3 out of 4 of the NH runners scored, one of them at 2/7 so hardly a difficult pick, 13/8 and 5/2 for the other pair. This is a bit better than expectation, and Top of the Bill came within a neck of making it 4/4. In the AW races one winner from 2 at 6/4, and again the other runner only beaten a neck - note that the one that lost was running over less than 8f, and I did point out the reduced win rate for those running over less than a mile.

I ought to stop here then frankly, as I'd say my expectations were about as close as they could be to what actually happened, except maybe 3 non handicap winners came in where I'd have settled for 2! As I always caution, when things go absolutely perfectly you can rely on the exact opposite happening sooner rather than later, but this new filter arrangement is worth watching for a while to see if it pans out. What I'm looking for from the AW picks is for the 8f+ race picks to produce 25% winners and 20-25% profit over time. The non handicap jumps runners' target figures are 45% winners and 45% profit - these are both significantly hard targets I would suggest, so we'll see how close we can or can't get to meeting them over the next couple of weeks, if this is just a flash in the pan then I am sure the bottom will be falling out soon enough.
Tomorrow's picks are lower down this post.


Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Kempton AW 13:50:00 [NH C] Grade 2 [20.5f] Stks [[4] run]
4/4 Runners rated
122 * 205712 Tamaroc Du Mathan (FR) (Bf 2.1) Drawn 0/4 Gelding
Nicholls P F 7-36(13) Cobden Harry 6-43(19) Days : 62
JCK
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/10 1Fav
WR% = 13.0

Kempton AW 14:25:00 [NH H] Grade 2 [16f] Stks [[9] run]
6/9 Runners rated
91 * 5226241 Tritonic (Bf 2.1) Drawn 0/9 Gelding
King A 1-23(7) Heskin A P 1-19(5) Days : 35
DST JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/10 1Fav
WR% = 13.0

Newcastle AW 15:50:00 [NH H] Class 2 [16.5f] Hcap [[7] run]
6/7 Runners rated
94 * 5113 Hooligan (IRE) (Bf 4) Drawn 0/7 Gelding
George T R 1-10(2) Bowen Sean P 4-24(11) Days : 72
GNG DST or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/4 2Fav
WR% = 20.0

Two again then, as the third is a handicap so being skipped.

tomorrow's top rated picks are given next - I have filtered these to just show the picks. Where an AW handicap is over less than 8f - and therefore considered a poorer chance - I have indicated by changing the *** denoting a bet to (****) so it can be spotted - I also added race distances for the AW races, in case anyone fancies checking if the longer races pay off better than the mile ones or anything of that nature. I'm not putting the whole toprated file up like I did yesterday, just this extract. The toprated for each race can of course be picked from the full_ratings file still.

1614376190110.png

Ignoring the 2 races over 6f that gives us 3 NH non handicaps, the estimate would be for a single winner from the three (45% of 3 = 1.25), and 3 AW handicaps which would also be likely to produce 1 winner (75% chance of 1 winner kind of deal)..... but if that were to happen exactly I think I'd be suspecting witchcraft......
Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
Carra the dog had a nice walk along the prom then back along the beach. he also had a small bit of the Haddock when I ordered a takeaway fish supper for my wife and myself, so he's having a fair day I'd say.

Whatever else happens during the day he makes sure to get his regular outings and treats.
Dave
 
Can you tell me what is the difference between flat and hurdle?
James Willoughby the best time man on the planet in my book, summed up why you cannot compare the flat to the Jumps on a poundage scale.

**********************************************************************************************************************************************************
At fault is the scale of 0-140 on which racehorses are rated on the Flat. It is only convention that dictates that jumps horses are rated on a wider scale, which leaves the top National Hunt horses on 175+. Presumably, the root was in the pound-value of handicap weights allotted back in the day: 10st on the Flat is 140lb and 12st 7lb over jumps is 175lb.

Either way, there is no good reason for this evident from statistical analysis. Harmonising the scales would not only remove the egregious effect that is the subject of this article, but also facilitate cross-code comparison.

If racing fans were interested in whether a horse were better over hurdles or on the Flat, the numbers would tell them without the bizarre conversion of adding 40 or 45 lbs to Flat-race ratings to determine whether a horse switching from the Flat to hurdles is well handicapped. It would also resonate with fans to compare and contrast Golden Horn with Sprinter Sacre (BHA 173 over fences), with Golden Horn (BHA 130) more readily than at present.

But, leaving any cascading benefit to one side, the more important reason to expand the Flat scale by 25% is to enable a correction in the exchange-rate between pounds and lengths by the same proportion; in other words, to move the handicapper's calculations more into line with physical reality. This could make a profound difference to the sport, for it would help to tilt handicap wins more across the continuum of power from the powerful stables to those lower down the money tree.

How on earth can anyone justify a system that is predicated on giving all horses an equal chance, when the data proves it does nothing of the sort?

*********************************************************************************************************************************************************

Mike.
 
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davejb

Mare
I wouldn't simply add x lbs when changing from one scale to another - bearing in mind the origin, where the top rating equates to the top handicap weight, I can certainly remember flat horses carrying 7-7 in handicaps while some jumpers lumped 12-7. In reality by looking over a couple of years of recent data I see Resurrected winning a class 6 at Chelmsford rated 30, with Cracksman top rated at 130, and Cyrname winning an Ascot Grade 2 at 176 and a bottom rated jumps winner off 61 - more recent data might expand those ranges a little, but they're reasonably representative I'd say.
Just a quick count - over flat/AW 95% winners were in the range 50-119, 96% jumps in the range 80-159, so if I were happy that these two ranges were properly representative of the ratings of runners (and even though this was a quick check I doubt they're badly out) then my range is 70 over the flat equals 80 over jumps, with base values of 50 and 80.... so if I had a flat horse rated 75 and wanted a jumps rating I'd say:
1) Horse is rated at (flat) base + 25
2) 25 flat points = 8/7*25 = 29 (A bit over 28.5, so rounded up) jumps points
3) 80 base + 29 = 109 over the jumps.

This rates Crystal Ocean a close challenger for Cyrname..... make of that what you will!

In reality I'd want to split the data into flat, AW, Hurdle, Chase, NHF to get factors and ranges for each group so I could convert any to any, but I would definitely not just add x lbs to a flat rating to get an NH rating as just adding 20 (say) to a flat figure is boosting the rating of a poorer horse more than a better one - 70+20 = 90 100+20 = 120 - that's an increase of x1.28 for the poorer horse and x1.2 for the better one, which has the effect of compressing the ratings.

Dave
 
In reality I'd want to split the data into flat, AW, Hurdle, Chase, NHF to get factors and ranges for each group so I could convert any to any, but I would definitely not just add x lbs to a flat rating to get an NH rating as just adding 20 (say) to a flat figure is boosting the rating of a poorer horse more than a better one - 70+20 = 90 100+20 = 120 - that's an increase of x1.28 for the poorer horse and x1.2 for the better one, which has the effect of compressing the ratings.
Although James W stated the flat scale should be raised 25%, I worked out the difference between flat and Hurdles was 28% and the chases 32% hence the reason I use a base rate of 130 on the jumps (28+32/2 =30), so my base rate on the flat is 100 and over the jumps 130.

When I worked out the differences years ago I came up with this table...

Linear pars.
LP.png

Mike.
 

davejb

Mare
I, of course, use the same bases as yourself TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother , but was replying to the question from Lazar - which I assumed was a query based on the BHA ratings. In practical terms I'm not inclined to do this kind of thing, the plus figure is an estimate based on the whole horse population, and there will be some that exceed that figure when going on to jumping while others undershoot... I think it's more a case of looking at the individual, and trying to figure out whether they look like a flat runner that is having a go at the jumps because they're not very good on the flat, or a horse that was bred for the jumps but had an outing or two as a 3yo on the flat.

Dave
 

davejb

Mare
Report for : 26/02/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/15 Odds: 1.5 (Return: 2.5)
Mkt filter 1/14 Odds: 1.5 (Return: 2.5)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/8 Odds: 3.5 (Return: 4.5)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/10 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/8 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/6 Odds: 0.29 1.63 1.88 2.5 (Return: 10.3)
Mkt filter 3/4 Odds: 0.29 1.63 2.5 (Return: 7.42)

Total Out = 39 Total return (raw) = 17.3
Total wins: 6 / 39
List of winners:
Lin 13:45:00 Nellie Moon 4.5
Wol 19:45:00 Final Voyage (IRE) 2.5
Exe 12:30:00 Striking A Pose (IRE) 1.29
Exe 13:00:00 Volkovka (FR) 2.63
War 13:37:00 Cabot Cliffs (IRE) 2.88
Exe 14:35:00 Momella (IRE) 3.5

Not that great, I kind of expect better these days.
Today's selections all won, the two non handicaps won at Evens and 5/6 - the 5/6 shot, Tritonic, did hit 10/11 at one point so might have been a bet for those watching the odds, but generally I count this as a single bet winning at Evens of course, as 5/6 is below my cutoff. The handicap runner also won, at 5/4.

The 'new picks' did okay, about breakeven really - I don't go for the 6f runners so this is a day with 5 runners (1 NR) that produced a 9/4 and a 5/6 winner (no odds restrictions on these by the way). Convertible was mugged on the line sadly, a 7/4 shot, going down by a short head.... Deluxe Range is really the first 'proper' loser in a way, the losing margins being neck, neck, short head up to this point! The forecast I made last night of a jumps winner and a handicap winner is what actually happened, sadly the returns today on the 5 best would be 5.08 so hardly enough to plan on shifting into a mansion just yet.
1614464786560.png

Tomorrow's selections then:

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Naas 14:30:00 [NH C] Grade 2 [20.5f] Hcap [[7] run]
7/7 Runners rated
124 * P3F3242 School Boy Hours (IRE) (Bf 5) Drawn 0/7 Gelding
Meade Noel 2-10(0) Walsh M P 5-9(7) Days : 82
gng jck
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 9/4 1Fav
WR% = 13.0

Fontwell 15:40:00 [NH H] Class 4 [19.5f] Stks [[12] run]
5/12 Runners rated
99 * 272222 Fantastikas (FR) (Bf 3) Drawn 0/12 Gelding
Twiston-Davies N A 3-34(9) Twiston-Davies Sam 4-40(17) Days : 21
gng jck
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 13/8 1Fav
WR% = 29.0

Naas 16:30:00 [NH H] [15.5f] Stks [[20] run]
8/23 Runners rated
84 * 8360259 Great Bear (Bf 5) Drawn 0/20 Gelding
Gibney Thomas 2-2(0) OKeeffe Darragh 3-19(6) Days : 21
dst jck
Passes: Stable Odds
Fails: Form
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/2 2Fav
WR% = 27.0

Naas 17:00:00 [NH H] [15.5f] Hcap [[20] run]
20/21 Runners rated
93 * P60F811 You Say Nothing (IRE) (Bf 4.5) Drawn 0/20 Gelding
Cromwell Gavin Patrick 0-10(0) Moore J M 0-6(0) Days : 41
GNG DST OR
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/1 3Fav
WR% = 13.0

There's one bet there, Fantastikas, and possibly a second in Great Bear - it depends if the likely favourite in that Naas race, Micro Manage, goes off too short. Micro Manage has a 3rd at leopardstown under his belt from a maiden on Boxing Day. He was 7/1 for the Irish St Leger (6th), although he'd previously been handicapping, but has two flat wins from his 5 flat starts so has every chance of being a pretty quick hurdler. He did clout the odd hurdle in his maiden, and if he gets a clearer round he could be hard to beat... so I'm not overly optimistic about Great Bear's chances against him.

For the 'new' picks:

1614465798452.png

No AW runners tomorrow. For my final attempt at estimating number of winners, I'm going with 2 for a target tomorrow, from the 4 above. Should there not be two then anyone feeling aggrieved is invited to write to my solicitors, Grabbit, Grabbit and Runne.
Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
Report for : 27/02/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/6 Odds: 2.25 4.0 (Return: 8.25)
Mkt filter 2/3 Odds: 2.25 4.0 (Return: 8.25)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/9 Odds: 0.4 1.63 (Return: 4.03)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 0.4 (Return: 1.4)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/8 Odds: 1.25 (Return: 2.25)
Mkt filter 1/6 Odds: 1.25 (Return: 2.25)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/13 Odds: 1.0 0.83 1.5 3.0 (Return: 10.33)
Mkt filter 2/3 Odds: 1.0 0.83 (Return: 3.83)

Total Out = 36 Total return (raw) = 24.86
Total wins: 9 / 36
List of winners:
Lin 12:20:00 Glentaneous (IRE) 1.4
Lin 12:55:00 Grove Ferry (IRE) 3.25
Che 19:00:00 Silent Queen (IRE) 5.0
Che 19:30:00 Discomatic (IRE) 2.63
Kem 13:50:00 Tamaroc Du Mathan (FR) 2.0
Kem 14:25:00 Tritonic 1.83
Fai 14:52:00 Acapella Bourgeois (FR) 2.5
New 15:50:00 Hooligan (IRE) 2.25
Kem 16:45:00 Guardino (FR) 4.0

Not great returns despite 9 winners, then again at 25% WR you'd need 3/1 to break even.
Today's picks ended up as two bets, Fnmtastikas won at evens but Great Bear could only manage 3rd - I was worried about Micro Manage (who again made the odd mistake and runs perhaps with the choke out a bit) but MM came 2nd, both being beaten by Genois.
That's a break even then.

The 'new picks' was a bit frustrating, as Henry Gondoff was a NR taking the list down to three possibles - only one won, I suppose it's a sign of progress that I find one winner from 3 a poorer show than expected. World of Dreams won at 10/11 and at the moment is actually a pick for tomorrow also! I'm not sure how happy I am with this, but then the last horse I backed after a couple of days turnround won, so I suppose we just have to figure that the horse is up to it if taking part.

Tomorrow's selections and new pick runners then:

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Plumpton 13:00:00 [NH C] Class 4 [26.5f] Hcap [[10] run]
9/10 Runners rated
86 * 6231342 Summit Like Herbie (Bf 4) Drawn 0/10 Gelding
Twiston-Davies N A 3-36(9) Nailor Jordan 1-13(4) Days : 97
or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/2 1Fav
WR% = 23.0

Plumpton 14:05:00 [NH H] Class 4 [16f] Stks [[13] run]
7/13 Runners rated
83 * 5326330 Loughan (IRE) (Bf 4) Drawn 0/13 Gelding
Skelton Daniel 15-61(17) Skelton Harry 14-45(24) Days : 18
dst jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/2 2Fav
WR% = 22.0

Ayr 16:10:00 [NH C] Class 3 [21f] Hcap [[5] run]
3/5 Runners rated
90 * 5216533 Sirwilliamwallace (IRE) (Bf 2.75) Drawn 0/5 Gelding
Thomson A M 1-12(1) Mania Ryan 1-21(4) Days : 62
gng jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/4 1Fav
WR% = 14.0

Which gives us 1 non handicap bet in Loughan. I don't really have any opinion on this race, it's a maiden hurdle over 2m for 13 runners, worth almost 4k to the winner which is a nice enough prize these days - I take much more interest in prize money these days as my own runners (tiny shares in) generate a few quid towards next year's syndicate fees.... it's nice to be able (at least) to use your prize money fund to pay for another year without having to dip into your pocket. I honestly think this could go to any of about half a dozen, and wouldn't bet in this race if I were just picking bets without the ratings to help me along, Loughan probably has as good a chance as most.

The new picks:
1614548783855.png

I've removed the 5 and 6f races on the AW etc, so only showing the *** picks which are the ones that ought to be making the decent returns. That leaves just the two for tomorrow, assuming World of Dreams actually runs. I'm not going to predict X wins here, as with so few races it's a coin toss whether you get 0,1 or 2!

I have been running a spreadsheet since 25th on these bets, and although there have only been 14 *** bets in that time 7 have won, which is a higher win rate than expected, especially as the AW race win rate was coming in around 25 and when combined with the NH WR% of around 45 then there's obviously an overall expectation somewhere along the 25-45 line (depending on the ratio of AW to NH bets) rather than at the high end. Unfortunately the odds haven't been as good as hoped, and the profit so far is actually only just under 3pts, giving a profit% of a smidgeon under 21%... the 'sliding scale' for profit% expected was 25-45% (coincidentally the same as the win rate percentages expected) so while the win rate is a bit above expectation the profit is noticeably down.

I suppose in reality it's a bit silly to get too upset when you win but not as much as you wanted to, but i do like to see the numbers lining up where they are meant to! We'll see how this week goes.

Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
Sorry, it didn't post again
I only just spotted it!
Dave

Just noticed the AW runner was missed from the new picks
1614607767585.png
 
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