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Early days

davejb

Mare
Musselburgh 13:25:00 [NH C] Class 4 [20.5f] Hcap [[12] run]
10/12 Runners rated
96 * 3325422 Scottish Accent (IRE) (Bf 9) Drawn 0/12 Gelding
Menzies Rebecca 1-15(3) Moscrop Nathan 1-10(2) Days : 50
gng dst jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/1 3Fav
WR% = 17
.0

Musselburgh 15:25:00 [NH H] Class 2 [16f] Stks [[8] run]
6/8 Runners rated
101 * 1141121 Third Time Lucki (IRE) (Bf 1.83) Drawn 0/8 Gelding
Skelton Daniel 4-10(1) Skelton Harry 5-14(7) Days : 43
gng DST JCK
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 10/11 1Fav
WR% = 41.0

Musselburgh 15:55:00 [NH C] Class 4 [24f] Hcap [[10] run]
8/10 Runners rated
94 * 35622P1 Hills Of Connemara (IRE) (Bf 4.33) Drawn 0/10 Mare
Corbett Mrs Susan 0-3(0) Coltherd Sam W 0-11(1) Days : 50
GNG DST JCK
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/1 2Fav
WR% = 17.0

Found some after all - the only one that is considered a bet is Third Time Lucki, due to the handicap issue of late.... and he is likely to be odds on and a no bet.

Sorry for the confusion, I opened an older file.
Dave
 

davejb

Mare
Report for : 06/02/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/13 Odds: 1.88 5.5 3.33 (Return: 13.71)
Mkt filter 2/8 Odds: 1.88 3.33 (Return: 7.21)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/6 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/10 Odds: 6.5 4.0 (Return: 12.5)
Mkt filter 2/7 Odds: 6.5 4.0 (Return: 12.5)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/10 Odds: 2.13 1.63 0.83 (Return: 7.59)
Mkt filter 2/2 Odds: 1.63 0.83 (Return: 4.46)

Total Out = 39 Total return (raw) = 33.8
Total wins: 8 / 39
List of winners:
Lin 14:16:00 Symbolic Power 2.88
Kem 17:25:00 Run After Genesis (IRE) 6.5
Kem 19:30:00 My Boy Sepoy 4.33
Mus 12:57:00 Gaelik Coast (FR) 3.13
Leo 13:05:00 Gaillard Du Mesnil (FR) 2.63
San 13:15:00 Moonlighter 7.5
Mus 13:29:00 Dubai Angel (IRE) 5.0
Leo 14:10:00 Energumene (FR) 1.83

Not too bad I guess, if only I could get the filtering sorted.....
Today's selections - all lost. the handicaps weren't a surprise of course but Third Time Lucki was alongside the winner at the last and lost his back end on landing, ending up 4th.... I think he'd have won that, although the winner was certainly not giving in at the time. It all pales into insignificance alongside the big gamble treble that had all the bookies trembling didn't it? The BHA asked the trainers a few questions, anybody care to offer odds on the truth being discovered? As if things aren't murky enough on a normal day.....

Tomorrow - as above, ignore handicaps, they are in there for info and interest only.

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Carlisle 12:30:00 [NH H] Class 4 [17f] Stks [[12] run]
2/12 Runners rated
88 * 41321 Wetlands (IRE) (Bf 3) Drawn 0/12 Gelding
Richards N G 1-5(0) Day Ryan D 0-5(0) Days : 56
GNG
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 9/4 2Fav
WR% = 19.0

Plumpton 13:45:00 [NH H] Class 4 [16f] Stks [[13] run]
10/13 Runners rated
99 * 6422122 Casa Loupi (Bf 1.44) Drawn 0/13 Gelding
Moore G L 5-25(4) Moore Jamie 0-14(4) Days : 16
gng dst jck OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 1/3 1Fav
WR% = 22.0

Newcastle AW 14:35:00 [NH F] Class 5 [16.5f] Stks [[14] run]
1/14 Runners rated
62 * 90PP771 Travel Lightly (Bf 6) Drawn 0/14 Mare
Menzies Rebecca 1-15(3) Moscrop Nathan 1-10(2) Days : 6
GNG DST JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/2 3Fav
WR% = 11.0

Fairyhouse 15:00:00 [NH H] [16f] Stks [[16] run]
9/19 Runners rated
75 * 197404 M C Muldoon (IRE) (Bf 2.25) Drawn 0/16 Gelding
Mullins W P 9-55(13) Mullins Mr P W 3-7(5) Days : 44
Passes: Stable Odds
Fails: Form
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET Evs 1Fav
WR% = 13.0

Newcastle AW 15:05:00 [NH F] Class 5 [16.5f] Stks [[8] run]
2/8 Runners rated
94 * 1343232 Onthefrontfoot (IRE) (Bf 1.62) Drawn 0/8 Gelding
McCain Jnr D 2-29(6) Hughes Brian 2-28(12) Days : 6
gng dst jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 4/7 1Fav
WR% = 11.0

Fairyhouse 16:00:00 [NH H] [20f] Stks [[16] run]
11/19 Runners rated
55 * 9080955 Fort William (IRE) (Bf 11) Drawn 0/16 Gelding
Ryan John Patrick 0-6(0) Brett Tommy N 0-1(0) Days : 27
Passes: Odds
Fails: Form Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/1 3Fav
WR% = 13.0

As I hope the bold print makes evident, only Casa Loupi comes from a race that has enough ratings on show to form any sort of opinion - granted the odd one is a well known horse, like OnTheFrontFoot, (well, I'm a little bit familiar with his previous form) but it's the unrated opposition that's the issue here. It's all very well seeing a hot favourite, but it's always a good idea to have some idea of the rest of the runners!
I doubt I'll find any of the above worth a bet, I just don't know enough really from a rating point of view. Wetlands, Casa Loupi and Onthefrontfoot are all selections for my original ratings however, so if I were backing any it would be those three.
Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
Yes,
it's a toss up if he was going to win - to me it looked like he was getting into top gear and was about to romp it, especially as the winner didn't really seem to zoom off that quickly, that blunder certainly knocked the stuffing out of him as he lost 2nd and 3rd close to the line. One of those things in the end, I hope that doesn't leave any sort of mark on the horse and he comes out in good form next time.

There have been a few lately that have made a bit of a feast of clouting fences, the comments for some of the selections have read more like a prize fight than a jumps race. I did get one right today, I picked Kemboy for the Irish Gold Cup while my wife went with Melon. Perhaps I'd have made a bit more had I bet against a bookie rather than my wife.... I'm not betting very much at all these days, only on the ones I have mini shares in of late. I only have two now, The greater Good was retired due to a back problem gained in his first outing, so it's all down to Glynn and Asdaa - mind you I did end up with almost £60 in my 'winnings' account, where my massive 1/4000 share of the 50% or so of winnings that goes to owners ends up, which will pay to keep both shares active for another year. Not quite Aga Khan, is it?

Dave
 

davejb

Mare
Report for : 07/02/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/5 Odds: 2.25 (Return: 3.25)
Mkt filter 1/4 Odds: 2.25 (Return: 3.25)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/2 Odds: 1.75 0.22 (Return: 3.97)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 0.22 (Return: 1.22)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/6 Odds: 7.0 (Return: 8.0)
Mkt filter 1/5 Odds: 7.0 (Return: 8.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/8 Odds: 0.67 (Return: 1.67)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 0.67 (Return: 1.67)

Total Out = 21 Total return (raw) = 16.89
Total wins: 5 / 21
List of winners:
Sou 14:05:00 The Hulk 2.75
Sou 15:35:00 Glory of Paris (IRE) 3.25
Sou 16:05:00 Double Dealing (IRE) 1.22
Leo 13:40:00 Quilixios 1.67
Mus 16:25:00 Get The Appeal (IRE) 8.0

Close ish, especially given the number of unrated still working through the ratings.
Today's sole proper selection was at the abandoned meeting at Plumpton. Of the rest (4 of them) one went off at 4/11 and lost, one was 8/15 and won. a 14/1 shot ran 5th - well beaten mind - of 16 and the other one won at 5/2.


Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Taunton 13:55:00 [NH H] Class 4 [19f] Stks [[14] run]
11/14 Runners rated
72 * 2062 Time To Tinker (IRE) (Bf 3.5) Drawn 0/14 Gelding
Nicholls P F 7-21(4) Cobden Harry 5-19(8) Days : 41
dst jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/2 3Fav
WR% = 21.0

Taunton 15:00:00 [NH H] Class 3 [16.5f] Stks [[11] run]
3/11 Runners rated
59 * 45P3 Glashas Peak (Bf 9) Drawn 0/11 Mare
Hobbs P J 2-9(3) Johnson Richard 5-17(9) Days : 63
gng or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 10/1 3Fav
WR% = 21.0

Kempton AW 16:20:00 [NH F] Class 4 [16f] Stks [[6] run]
1/6 Runners rated
78 * 9634452 Imphal (Bf 5.5) Drawn 0/6 Gelding
Moore G L 3-19(2) Moore Joshua 1-10(1) Days : 22
gng dst jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 9/4 1Fav
WR% = 19.0

Taunton 16:30:00 [NH C] Class 5 [18f] Hcap [[13] run]
5/14 Runners rated
70 * 87364 Baignard (FR) (Bf 5.5) Drawn 0/13 Gelding
Mitchell Nick 1-3(0) Gillard Fergus 1-6(4) Days : 19
gng
Passes: Stable Odds
Fails: Form
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/1 3Fav
WR% = 14.0

Okay, usual caveats in play, so Time To Tinker is the only one in this list really, as the rest are all cases of the field only being partially rated. Time To Tinker is probably going to be second favourite according to the Racing Post forecast, and is up against Stellar Magic who beat him last time out by just over a length over C&D both carrying 10-12. Tomorrow Stellar Magic carries 12-2, and is giving Ime To Tinker (11-4) 12 lbs for that, which is quite a difference given the margin. Stellar Magic is probably expected to improve, having run a bit green on that run (30 Dec), but then Time To Tinker looks to have improved rather a lot on that run so I'm of the opinion that TTT has a decent chance of reversing the placings.

Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
That's another bloody post that sat there for 24 hours until I came to post tonight's effort. I have no idea why this happens, my apologies - for all I know I get distracted and don't notice my click on the post button didn't do anything.

Well, on the plus side you didn't miss much, all the selection races bar one were at the Abandoned Taunton meeting, and the Kempton was clearly a no bet being the only rated runner in the race.

I'll do the usual stuff,
Report for : 08/02/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/3 Odds: 5.0 (Return: 6.0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/4 Odds: 4.5 (Return: 5.5)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/15 Odds: 14.0 2.5 0.53 1.75 (Return: 22.78)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 0.53 (Return: 1.53)

Total Out = 26 Total return (raw) = 34.28
Total wins: 6 / 26
List of winners:
Wol 17:00:00 Tataboq (IRE) 6.0
New 12:25:00 Creggan White Hare (IRE) 15.0
Fai 13:20:00 Weihnachts (IRE) 5.5
New 14:35:00 Travel Lightly 3.5
Fai 15:00:00 M C Muldoon (IRE) 1.53
New 16:40:00 Busy Street 2.75

That was from yesterday of course, not the ratings I forgot to post which were for today.... complicated sometimes, I work with yesterday and tomorrow for ratings, and today for selections, which sometimes has me going in ever decreasing circles figuring out what to delete as an old file....

Well, yesterday showed a small profit then. hurray! Actually not bad, 8.28 profit from 26 level stakes and all that - given that the idea is to take the top rated ones and winnow out the good ones contained therein, ie you don't back every one, then days like yesterday make the job a bit easier.


Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Newcastle AW 14:00:00 [AW] Class 6 [10f] Stks [[13] run]
13/13 Runners rated
40 * 085523 Sezina (Bf 3.25) Drawn 4/13 Filly
Ellison B 1-16(4) Robinson Ben 2-11(4) Days : 66
jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
AW non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 5/2 1Fav
WR% = 18.0

Not an inspiring sort of event, a class 6 event with £2700 or so to the winner. Sezina has only run 4 times on the AW, placed twice, has been running over shorter and finishing well so ought to be suited by the extra quarter of a mile. These are low rated horses - Sezina has the highest handicap mark at 50 (range here in this race is 44 - 50, fairly tightly bunched) - so Seabiscuit v Man O'War it isn't, expectations must be managed and all that - basically a race for fairly slow horses, one of which will probably win, although possibly they'll need to delay the 2.30 race to give them time to finish. Sezina looks the best of them, but goodness knows what could happen with this lot, don't be amazed to see it all end with one of those interviews where the trainer of the winner explains how he's always been good at home but never seemed to transfer that to the track until today, when they stormed home at 8/11 having been mysteriously backed in from 33/1, to win their 25th outing and finally losing their maiden tag.

Cynical. moi?

Dave
 

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Last edited:

davejb

Mare
Report for : 09/02/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/8 Odds: 1.63 1.1 (Return: 4.73)
Mkt filter 2/6 Odds: 1.63 1.1 (Return: 4.73)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/1 Odds: 0.22 (Return: 1.22)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 0.22 (Return: 1.22)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/8 Odds: 2.5 (Return: 3.5)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 17 Total return (raw) = 9.45
Total wins: 4 / 17
List of winners:
Sou 16:45:00 Mukha Magic 2.63
Sou 17:45:00 Craved 1.22
Sou 19:45:00 Three Cs (IRE) 2.1
Kem 13:45:00 Hooper 3.5

Ho hum, can't get excited.....
Only selection was for newcastle, abandoned.


Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Kempton AW 16:15:00 [NH F] Class 4 [16f] Stks [[14] run]
1/14 Runners rated
39 * 2521311 Manjaam (IRE) (Bf 4.5) Drawn 0/14 Gelding
Loughnane David 1-14(4) Cobden Harry 7-22(11) Days : 9
GNG DST OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 9/2 3Fav
WR% = 17.0

Not a bet with one runner rated out of 14!
Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
Report for : 10/02/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/8 Odds: 1.75 3.33 (Return: 7.08)
Mkt filter 2/8 Odds: 1.75 3.33 (Return: 7.08)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 10 Total return (raw) = 7.08
Total wins: 2 / 10
List of winners:
Wol 17:15:00 Host (IRE) 2.75
Wol 18:45:00 Buy Me Back 4.33

Almost got there.
No bets today, and Manjaam didn't win so we dodged one there.
I haven't looked at all the results in depth yet, but today's ratings are definitely up as there's a 25/1 winner at Kempton in the mix, an 11/2 shot and at least 2 more in the 2/` sort of area. There are still quite a few races with zero or few rated horses in, which can be a bit frustrating, but when the ratings are present they seem to still be doing a better job than the previous version - the new version has picked more winners and returned more pts on 15 of the last 20 days in fact so the difference is far from small.

No bets for tomorrow.

Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
Report for : 11/02/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/8 Odds: 2.5 2.0 (Return: 6.5)
Mkt filter 2/7 Odds: 2.5 2.0 (Return: 6.5)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/5 Odds: 25.0 5.5 (Return: 32.5)
Mkt filter 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 13 Total return (raw) = 39.0
Total wins: 4 / 13
List of winners:
New 16:30:00 Madeeh 3.5
New 18:00:00 Kind Review 3.0
Kem 14:05:00 Floy Joy (IRE) 26.0
Kem 14:40:00 Royal Pretender (FR) 6.5

What I like about that is the day pretty much broke even without the 25/1 winner - and of course a 200% profit to level stakes makes a nice change. Looks like 4/7 today at Southwell, but only one at Dundalk, but should be a little bit up overall.
I'm not going to keep this 'how today went' bit going really, I just happen to have noticed things going well the past couple of days.... things need to stay like this for the rest of the jumps before I get too excited. When the flat starts I'm afraid there'll not be much back data to go no for a while, but then I tend to think that the first couple of months of any season, jumps or flat, is a bit of a guessing game.

No bets today, there's a handicap pick for tomorrow which I'll post just for info, being a handicap it's not a bet under current practise. (Win rate of 13% should be enough to put most sane people off anyhow).

Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Naas 15:25:00 [NH H] [15.5f] Hcap [[18] run]
17/21 Runners rated
77 * 7683 Junior Rattler (IRE) (Bf 17) Drawn 0/18 Gelding
McKiernan Oliver 0-9(4) Cawley Paul J 0-3(0) Days : 46

Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/1 3Fav
WR% = 13.0

Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
Report for : 12/02/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 4/10 Odds: 1.38 0.83 5.5 4.5 (Return: 16.21)
Mkt filter 2/7 Odds: 0.83 4.5 (Return: 7.33)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/5 Odds: 3.5 (Return: 4.5)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 15 Total return (raw) = 20.71
Total wins: 5 / 15
List of winners:
Sou 13:15:00 Abrag (IRE) 4.5
Sou 13:45:00 Morlaix 2.38
Sou 14:45:00 Bill Cody (IRE) 1.83
Sou 15:45:00 Equidae 6.5
Dun 17:00:00 Drakensberg (IRE) 5.5

Not too bad there really, not spectacular but another winning day - makes a nice change!
No bet today, and Junior Rattler was a non runner - I note that a number of top rated runners were non runners today.

Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Exeter 13:40:00 [NH H] Class 4 [19f] Stks [[10] run]
6/10 Runners rated
86 * 120P2 Cascova (IRE) (Bf 3.75) Drawn 0/10 Gelding
Henderson N J 3-31(11) Boinville Nico 4-28(10) Days : 47
gng or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/2 1Fav
WR% = 26.0

Punchestown 14:00:00 [NH H] Listed Race [16.5f] Stks [[6] run]
5/6 Runners rated
102 * 1151 Thedevilscoachman (IRE) (Bf 3) Drawn 0/6 Gelding
Meade Noel 0-15(4) Walsh M P 7-25(12) Days : 16
DST JCK
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 13/8 1Fav
WR% = 9.0

Exeter 14:10:00 [NH H] Class 4 [19f] Stks [[9] run]
6/10 Runners rated
82 * 1122 Karl Philippe (FR) (Bf 4) Drawn 0/9 Gelding
OBrien Fergal 1-24(6) Brennan P J 3-23(8) Days : 35
gng JCK
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/2 1Fav
WR% = 26.0

Punchestown 15:00:00 [NH H] [20f] Stks [[20] run]
6/23 Runners rated
58 * 3F030 Moonshot (IRE) (Bf 11) Drawn 0/20 Mare
Crawford S R B 1-8(1) Corbett Patrick E 0-5(1) Days : 50
jck
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 10/1 3Fav
WR% = 9.0

Exeter 15:40:00 [NH C] Class 2 [24.5f] Hcap [[11] run]
7/11 Runners rated
128 * 1272236 Bobo Mac (IRE) (Bf 5.5) Drawn 0/11 Gelding
Symonds Tom 0-1(1) Heskin A P 2-11(6) Days : 36
or
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 9/2 2Fav
WR% = 21.0

Southwell AW 16:50:00 [AW] Class 6 [6f] Stks [[12] run]
12/12 Runners rated
43 * 6765172 Owhatanight (Bf 2.75) Drawn 5/12 Gelding
Murphy Mike 4-6(1) Muscutt D 7-25(10) Days : 14
dst JCK or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
AW non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 6/4 1Fav
WR% = 28.0

I think I'd skip the Punchestown race, and of course I'm avoiding handicaps still.
Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
Report for : 13/02/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/8 Odds: 0.67 1.75 (Return: 4.42)
Mkt filter 2/7 Odds: 0.67 1.75 (Return: 4.42)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/5 Odds: 1.75 (Return: 2.75)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 1.75 (Return: 2.75)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/6 Odds: 1.63 6.5 (Return: 10.13)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 6.5 (Return: 7.5)

Total Out = 19 Total return (raw) = 17.3
Total wins: 5 / 19
List of winners:
Lin 11:45:00 Galahad Threepwood 1.67
Wol 18:45:00 Liverpool Knight 2.75
Wol 20:15:00 Monsaraz 2.75
Naa 12:35:00 Hurricane Cliff (IRE) 2.63
Naa 16:35:00 Eyewitness 7.5

Just a shade under, and I think today was similar - although Meet And Greet in the last at Punchestown would have made an impact, just failing to get up by a neck at 20/1.

The bets today did okay, even the Punchestown one I didn't fancy much :D The first one lost but the rest won at 15/8, 6/4 and Evens, with one non runner when Exeter chopped all the chases from the card.

Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Warwick 14:50:00 [NH C] Grade 2 [16.5f] Stks [[4] run]
4/4 Runners rated
128 * 1113311 Allmankind (Bf 1.73) Drawn 0/4 Gelding
Skelton Daniel 8-27(5) Skelton Harry 8-28(13) Days : 72
GNG DST JCK
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 8/11 1Fav
WR% = 14.0

Warwick 15:25:00 [NH H] Listed Race [21f] Stks [[6] run]
4/6 Runners rated
111 * 5405823 Eglantine Du Seuil (FR) (Bf 7) Drawn 0/6 Mare
Nicholls P F 9-32(5) Cobden Harry 8-29(12) Days : 23
gng dst jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 6/1 2Fav
WR% = 14.0

Lingfield AW 16:20:00 [NH F] Class 4 [16f] Stks [[9] run]
1/9 Runners rated
69 * 1523362 Getariver (IRE) (Bf 2.5) Drawn 0/9 Mare
Skelton Daniel 8-27(5) Andrews Bridget 1-3(1) Days : 13
gng dst jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 6/4 1Fav
WR% = 11.0

Lingfield AW 16:50:00 [NH F] Class 4 [16f] Stks [[8] run]
4/8 Runners rated
82 * 12328O1 Strong Glance (Bf 2.88) Drawn 0/8 Gelding
Murphy Olly 2-13(5) Coleman A 3-20(10) Days : 14
GNG DST JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 13/8 1Fav
WR% = 11.0

The first of these will probably be well odds on and therefore a no bet, whilst the second is probably running against a well odds on favourite, so similarly likely to be a no bet. Which leaves two.

Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
Only one out of three sadly. I'm feeling rather lousy just now so I won't be doing anything much for the rest of the day, but at some point I need to analyse how these new ratings can be whittled down as I did for the original ratings - my impression is that the current 'bet' filters aren't doing a great job, but I know the new ratings are outperforming the old ones by a decent margin. Just glancing at my notebook for the past 16 days (an arbitrary number, it's just that my notebook's current page has the past 16 days on it) the new ratings did better than the old ones on 12/16 of those days, the old ratings were profitable to 1 pt level stakes on 3 days, the new ratings on 7. The 12 days before that, ie since changing to the new ratings set, the new ratings were better on 10 days (might have been 11, I actually omitted to write one day down) with 6 profitable days compared to zero,,,,, with more winners being found, and probably at a slightly better average price, there ought to be some way to identify the better bets amongst them.

In the past month the old ratings gave 106 winners from 668 races, returning 449.09
the new ratings produced 135 winners from 646 races, returning 618.55 - so the win rate has been higher, but also the average price has improved to the point where breakeven is pretty close - so any improvement that can be made would be more than welcome!
Win rate has gone from 16% to 21% and the average price from 4.24 to 4.58... I appreciate that the first half of these results weren't put up on this thread, but the numbers for win rate and returns are very little different if you just use the numbers I've posted.

Dave
 

davejb

Mare
Report for : 14/02/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/2 Odds: 1.0 (Return: 2.0)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 1.0 (Return: 2.0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/3 Odds: 7.5 2.5 (Return: 12.0)
Mkt filter 2/3 Odds: 7.5 2.5 (Return: 12.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/10 Odds: 1.88 1.5 (Return: 5.38)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 1.88 (Return: 2.88)

Total Out = 18 Total return (raw) = 19.38
Total wins: 5 / 18
List of winners:
Sou 16:50:00 Owhatanight 2.0
Pun 14:00:00 Thedevilscoachman (IRE) 2.88
Exe 14:10:00 Karl Philippe (FR) 2.5
Pun 15:30:00 Thunderosa (IRE) 8.5
Pun 16:30:00 The Big Dog (IRE) 3.5

Tiny profit there. One winner from 3 today as Allmankind (W4/7) was so far odds on. Strong Glance at 6/5.

Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Catterick 14:15:00 [NH C] Class 3 [25.5f] Hcap [[9] run]
9/9 Runners rated
140 * 338221 Whos In The Box (IRE) (Bf 7) Drawn 0/9 Gelding
Kent Nick 0-1(1) Hammond Charlie 3-8(5) Days : 48
GNG JCK
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 9/2 3Fav
WR% = 20.0

Catterick 15:15:00 [NH C] Class 6 [25.5f] Stks [[15] run]
1/15 Runners rated
126 * 11405 Duhallow Tornado (IRE) (Bf 11) Drawn 0/15 Gelding
Pimlott O J 0-0(0) Burke Jonathan 0-12(0) Days : 90
Passes: Odds
Fails: Form Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 13/2 3Fav
WR% = 33.0

We'll see how these two get on.
Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
Report for : 15/02/2021
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/8 Odds: 3.5 (Return: 4.5)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 3.5 (Return: 4.5)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/5 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/5 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/16 Odds: 0.57 6.5 1.2 (Return: 11.27)
Mkt filter 2/5 Odds: 0.57 1.2 (Return: 3.77)

Total Out = 30 Total return (raw) = 15.77
Total wins: 4 / 30
List of winners:
Wol 16:25:00 Nellie French (IRE) 4.5
War 14:50:00 Allmankind 1.57
Lin 15:15:00 Bailarico (IRE) 7.5
Lin 16:50:00 Strong Glance 2.2

Bah, not at all what is wanted!
Both bets today came 2nd, I'm counting Dunhallow Tornado whose SP of 5/6 puts him into the too short bracket because he was 5/4 earlier.

Tomorrow

------------------------------------------------------------------
No bet if runner is at odds shorter than 10/11
No bet if runner is against a favourite at odds shorter than 10/11
------------------------------------------------------------------

Wetherby 13:05:00 [NH C] Class 4 [21.5f] Stks [[6] run]
4/6 Runners rated
95 * 2F132 Coconut Splash (IRE) (Bf 4) Drawn 0/6 Gelding
Williams Evan 1-18(2) Wedge Adam 2-19(3) Days : 64
gng jck
Passes: Form Stable Odds
No fails
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 2/1 2Fav
WR% = 31.0

Hereford 15:35:00 [NH C] Class 5 [21f] Hcap [[12] run]
11/12 Runners rated
64 * 13723P3 Mount Oliver (IRE) (Bf 7.5) Drawn 0/12 Gelding
Davies Miss Sarah-Jayne 0-1(0) Kennedy W T 0-7(0) Days : 35
gng jck or
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 6/1 3Fav
WR% = 8.0

So no bet on the Hereford race, leaving just the one.
Dave
 

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