• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR

Early days

davejb

Mare
Report for : 23/10/2020
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/22 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/15 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/14 Odds: 3.0 1.25 (Return: 6.25)
Mkt filter 1/4 Odds: 1.25 (Return: 2.25)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/4 Odds: 3.0 (Return: 4.0)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 3.0 (Return: 4.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/8 Odds: 2.0 2.0 3.0 (Return: 10.0)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 2.0 (Return: 3.0)

Total Out = 48 Total return (raw) = 20.25
Total wins: 6 / 48
List of winners:
Don 13:30:00 Vesela 4.0
New 19:00:00 Ivynator (IRE) 2.25
Che 14:25:00 Galvin (IRE) 3.0
Sli 15:08:00 Paulas Prayer (IRE) 4.0
Sli 15:43:00 Shes All Vintage (IRE) 3.0
Sli 16:53:00 Desire De Joie (FR) 4.0

Also pants.

Today's selections did okay again, 3 runners (1 NR) 2 of them won, one at 9/4 the other at 7/2

Tomorrow:

Hexham 14:05:00 [NH H] Class 4 [20.5f] Stks [[7] run]
104 * 0823232 Raynas World (IRE) (Bf 1.53) Drawn 0/7 Mare
Kirby P A 2-27(8) Dowson Thomas 2-18(4) Days : 8
gng jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 1/3 1Fav
WR% = 21.0

Just the one then,

Dave
No EPS file tomorrow, as it's all NH
 

Attachments

  • 25_oct.xlsx
    587.9 KB · Views: 1
  • 25_oct_full.xlsx
    76 KB · Views: 5

davejb

Mare
Report for : 24/10/2020
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/17 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/9 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/14 Odds: 1.63 1.1 3.33 3.5 (Return: 13.56)
Mkt filter 1/6 Odds: 1.63 (Return: 2.63)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/9 Odds: 2.25 (Return: 3.25)
Mkt filter 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/11 Odds: 2.0 2.0 3.0 7.0 (Return: 18.0)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 2.0 (Return: 3.0)

Total Out = 51 Total return (raw) = 34.81
Total wins: 9 / 51
List of winners:
Leo 13:55:00 Sword Zorro (IRE) 2.63
New 14:25:00 Caribou 2.1
Leo 15:39:00 Flying Visit (IRE) 4.33
Leo 16:14:00 Amma Grace (IRE) 4.5
Kel 13:25:00 Hart Of Steel (IRE) 3.0
Che 14:40:00 Southfield Stone 3.0
Gal 14:47:00 Pakens Rock (IRE) 4.0
Gal 15:22:00 Mighty Tom (IRE) 8.0
Kel 16:18:00 Cedar Hill (IRE) 3.25

Still undershooting - this is quite normal of course, as the idea is to cut down the number of runners so that winners can be identified from what is still a fairly long short list. What I mean by this is that for the above 555 horses competed, the ratings picked 51 of them out as potential winners - the 'trick' is then to decide which 9 (in this case) of those would actually win. The selections I make from these are based on a few 'filters' that try to find the winners amongst this shortlist. As the last few days show, and quite a number of times in the past 2 years have also shown, it can be done - unfortunately there are losing runs that tend to cancel out the winning ones, but the whole process is running very near breakeven over two years so it ought to provide a decent jumping off point for anyone able to add a little bit of their own form reading to the mix.

Today's sole selection was unbackable at 1/5, frankly, although she did win by 13l in a canter which was nice.

Tomorrow:

Leicester 12:50:00 [Flat] Class 4 [6f] Stks [[7] run]
65 * 721332 Dark Illusion (Bf 3.25) Drawn 5/7 Colt
Houghton Eve Johnson 2-13(6) Bishop Charles 4-38(8) Days : 12
dst JCK
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
Flat non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 5/2 2Fav
WR% = 28.0

Ayr 13:40:00 [NH C] Class 4 [20.5f] Hcap [[12] run]
83 * 84133 Beat Box (FR) (Bf 6.5) Drawn 0/12 Gelding
Ewart J P L 0-9(0) Hughes Brian 11-54(24) Days : 24
GNG jck or
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 4/1 1Fav
WR% = 15.0

Wexford 14:40:00 [NH H] [20f] Stks [[11] run]
106 * FU054 Kilgorey (IRE) (Bf 4) Drawn 0/11 Gelding
Dunleavy Mrs Y 0-2(0) Donoghue K M 7-27(11) Days : 19

Passes: Odds
Fails: Form Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/4 2Fav
WR% = 26.0


Dave
 

Attachments

  • 26_oct.xlsx
    834.3 KB · Views: 5
  • 26_oct_eps.xlsx
    45.7 KB · Views: 1
  • 26_oct_full.xlsx
    89.6 KB · Views: 7

saxonprop

Newbie

Daznvern

Newbie
Good morning.
Just joined the forum and was looking around and stumbled on your thread, 3000 repies plus so that will take some reading through.

I get the gist of it and have opened a few of your documents.
Looks very good and detailed, are your flags good points and is the speed and ctr figures the best horses in the race according to your database of past races etc.

Is there a page on here i could skip to without reading 3k of messages to be a key to the ratings etc.

Looks straight forward enough but in past i have jumped in and mis read information.

Thank you
Darren
 

dave58

Administrator
Hi D Daznvern welcome to the forum.
If you want to address a question to a particular member, then if you put a @ followed by the members name - in this case davejb davejb then they will get an alert and will see your post.
 

Daznvern

Newbie
davejb davejb

Good morning.
Just joined the forum and was looking around and stumbled on your thread, 3000 repies plus so that will take some reading through.

I get the gist of it and have opened a few of your documents.
Looks very good and detailed, are your flags good points and is the speed and ctr figures the best horses in the race according to your database of past races etc.

Is there a page on here i could skip to without reading 3k of messages to be a key to the ratings etc.

Looks straight forward enough but in past i have jumped in and mis read information.

Also whats the difference between the 3 attachments?

What am i looking at in each please. ?

Thank you
Darren
 

davejb

Mare
Hi D Daznvern
First off the three attachments.

The EPS chart is the easiest so I'll start there. The last three runs of each runner are looked at, specifically the in running comment section of their form, to identify how the horse ran its race - many of these comments use the same sort of phrases for this, so my program scans the comments trying to find them. A horse might be described as having 'made all' for example, in which case it's fair to assume he started quick and was in front the whole way. Each run is given a number of points, where 5 points means a comment identified the horse as being in front the whole way. Less points are awarded for comments that suggest the horse ran prominently (in the main body behind the leader(s)) and less still for horses that are noted as running at the rear of the pack. If you want any more on the idea behind this you could look up 'Quinn Speed Points'. Three runs gives a total out of 15 pts, the higher the total the more likely it is that the horse will try to front run.

If you think a track/course suits a particular style therefore you can use it's eps rating (e - front runner/early paced. p - runs prominently, s- sustained... one that comes from behind towards the finish) to locate runners that are prone to running that way. It can also help identify races where there's not really any 'pace horses' in the race, which could lead to a bit of a trundle round with a sprint finish, or a race where a lot of runners look likely to contest the lead - which could of course mean they run each other out of it before the finish allowing one of the p or s types to come through and win.

The file name that consists of just the date is a sort of race card as you can see, carrying two sections per race. The first section lists the race conditions, one line per runner gives its best ratings and the 'flags' and jockey and trainer win/place rates. Some bits in the race conditions that aren't obvious - one section will say "stakes (or hcap) rtgs 17/83 20% All rtgs 27/188 14%" - these are the wins/ races and win percentage of the ratings at this course for this type of race (handicap or non handicap) and the wins/races win percent of all races at this course, these show how the ratings have done over the past couple of years when trying to predict the winner. A line below these are mean, median, and past ratings - these show how past race winners of this type (type of race, similar distance/class) were rated, median and mean are their usual 'middle number' and 'average of values' meaning, to give an idea of how high a rating a typical winner would have. The win/runs ratings are to give a clue as to how 'good' the ratings have been at this course in the past - some courses seem much more ratings friendly than others - while the mean/median etc might help decide which runners are likely to be involved in the finish.

HWR is relevant for handicaps, where there is an HWR figure this is the highest OR (BHA rating) that the horse has won a handicap off since the start of the ratings a couple pf years back. (Runs in non handicaps, obviously, are immaterial in such cases). The RPR is of course the Racing post rating for a run, speed is my speed rating, and the c-Rating is made up by combining the two with a factor to balance them out to give similar 'weight' for each.... so you get three different ratings to decide which you prefer to use.

In the 'one line per runner' section the top rated runner's rating is highlighted for convenience.
The flags - left to right they indicate whether a horse has won (dark green, 2 pts) or placed (light green, 1 pt) or not won or placed (clear, 0 pts) while gng- on the same going as predicted for today, dist - at (plus or minus half a furlong) today's race distance, cls - at today's race class, jck - with today's jockey aboard, OR - at (or above) today's handicap mark. Total is a simple 'points out of 12 total' for these categories, obviously the higher the score the better the horse has previously acheived in today's conditions.

Twin win/run percent show how the stable has done over the past 14 days.

Each horse's past form is then listed, with the ratings, info on weight carried, and all the usual sort of stuff. The comment for each run includes an (e) [P] or S (should be bracketed but the forum turns this into strike through, so imagine the brackets!) to show how that run was classified for the eps chart info. Bear in mind that this classification is based on finding key phrases in the comment, so if some unusual wording occurred then it is possible for something to slip by - it's only as clever at this as my programming made it!

Ratings are corrected for weight, so the ratings for today (as given in the 'one line per runner' top section all reflect the weight that a horse is set to carry today, jockey claims are ignored however, so if a good apprentice is aboard feel free to 'up' a rating a few pts. Similarly in the 'form' section beneath, ratings are adjusted so they can be compared to today's ratings.

The course characteristics for today's race are given in the upper section, these are the same descriptions as you'll see for each runner's previous races in the 'form' section below - RH RH Tuf Stf Up - for one example, this info is basically 'course direction', 'course character' and 'finish' information, the above is a right handed course, it is a tough course with stiff jumps, and an uphill finish. Generally speaking I'd hope the abbreviations are fairly obvious, tuf for tough etc, for NH tracks there'll be a 'tough, fair, easy' or 'stiff' for the fences, while on the flat that last abbreviation will tend to describe the track as flat, undulating, or (as in the example) as having an uphill finish.

The days column shows the gaps between runs in days.

An important point about the speed ratings is that the 'top rating' for a runner has to be set in the same type of run, ie jumps ratings are ignored if the race is on the flat and vice versa. AW ratings are only used with AW races - an AW run will be there in the form section of course, but ignored when the program is deciding who is top rated in a turf race. Similarly over jumps hurdles, chases, and NH Flat races are considered different to each other, and hurdle ratings will be ignored when scanning to find the top rated runner in a chase and so on.

I think that covers it, for that, so finally there's the speed ratings 'quick look' format - this is the one labelled 'full' :
The key here is pretty much that there's an attempt to provide a one line, numeric guide to each runner. Abbreviated race details are hopefully obvious, each runner then gets listed in order of their speed rating - the top rated coming top of the race listing. The speed rating is in the first column, before the runner's name, and if there is an asterisk by it (eg 89*) rather than (89) it means that the last run was also the run it set this figure on. Ratings that are older than 6 runs ago or 100 days ago are not used in this file. As described above ratings are also ignored if they aren't on the same surface, or they are NHF ratings in a bumper, and so on.

OR Diff shows the difference in lbs between the horse's current handicap rating (OR) and their highest winning OR as described earlier on - this information is only relevant therefore to handicap races.

Flags are as per the previous description. The trainer info is slightly expanded here to show the wins/runs figures and an extra column to show placed runners - perhaps giving a slightly rounder view of a stable's form over the past 14 days. Similar is now shown for jockeys, rides over the last 14 days also have wins, places, total runs and percentages shown - better figures are highlighted, with the darker shade for higher percentages.

Hope that covers the bases okay for you, ask if anything is unclear.

Dave
 
Last edited:

Daznvern

Newbie
davejb davejb Thank you for your reply, wow so much information,
One quick question on the date attachment, there is a column called 'filt' and theres a yellow block next to a few horses names, what is the yellow block telling us.
Thank you.
 

davejb

Mare
That's short for 'filter' and it's finding horses that are reasonably fancied (forecast odds) and placed last time out.

yesterday:
Report for : 25/10/2020
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 4/18 Odds: 66.0 2.5 6.0 2.5 (Return: 81.0)
Mkt filter 1/8 Odds: 2.5 (Return: 3.5)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/17 Odds: 0.2 1.25 0.91 0.62 (Return: 6.98)
Mkt filter 3/5 Odds: 0.2 1.25 0.62 (Return: 5.07)

Total Out = 35 Total return (raw) = 87.98
Total wins: 8 / 35
List of winners:
Hex 12:55:00 Kilcaragh Boy (IRE) 67.0
Hex 14:05:00 Raynas World (IRE) 1.2
Wex 14:10:00 Champagne Gold (IRE) 2.25
Win 14:52:00 Step Back (IRE) 3.5
Gal 15:00:00 Beacon Edge (IRE) 1.91
Ain 15:42:00 Jacamar (GER) 7.0
Win 16:02:00 Namib Dancer (IRE) 1.62
Gal 16:10:00 Jiving Jerry (IRE) 3.5

Bit of a surprise there eh? Kilcaragh boy won a fairly attritional race at 66/1! No fluke really, I did have him well clear on ratings, but obviously not the sort of thing that happens at all often.

today there were 2 bets, as the first selection was up against a strong odds on favourite, no winners.

No selections tomorrow. (And highly unlikely to be any more 66/1 winners either).


Dave
 

Attachments

  • 27_oct_full.xlsx
    62.4 KB · Views: 5
  • 27_oct_eps.xlsx
    26.6 KB · Views: 3
  • 27_oct.xlsx
    520.6 KB · Views: 5

davejb

Mare
Report for : 26/10/2020
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/13 Odds: 3.5 (Return: 4.5)
Mkt filter 1/7 Odds: 3.5 (Return: 4.5)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 5/16 Odds: 0.44 3.0 0.57 1.63 1.38 (Return: 12.02)
Mkt filter 4/7 Odds: 0.44 0.57 1.63 1.38 (Return: 8.02)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/5 Odds: 2.0 (Return: 3.0)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 2.0 (Return: 3.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/9 Odds: 3.0 14.0 0.62 (Return: 20.62)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 0.62 (Return: 1.62)

Total Out = 43 Total return (raw) = 40.14
Total wins: 10 / 43
List of winners:
Red 12:10:00 Finoah (IRE) 1.44
Gal 13:20:00 French Fusion (IRE) 4.0
Red 13:50:00 Troll Peninsula (USA) 1.57
Red 14:25:00 Bravado (FR) 2.63
Lei 14:35:00 Dashing Roger 4.5
New 19:00:00 Daphne May 2.38
Ayr 12:30:00 Wild Polly (IRE) 4.0
Wex 12:55:00 Hazran (IRE) 15.0
Wex 15:15:00 Minella Indo (IRE) 1.62
Ayr 15:25:00 Espoir Moriviere (FR) 3.0

Busy day.

No picks today, tomorrow:

Fakenham 14:32:00 [NH H] Class 4 [24.5f] Hcap [[10] run]
80 * 21223 Vinnies Getaway (IRE) (Bf 6) Drawn 0/10 Gelding
Murphy Olly 3-36(11) Stones Lewis 1-6(3) Days : 21
GNG jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 3/1 1Fav
WR% = 21.0

Kempton AW 16:45:00 [AW] Class 5 [6f] Stks [[10] run]
50 * 5343 Mister Bluebird (Bf 11) Drawn 4/10 Colt
Main Mrs H S 1-9(4) Egan David 4-38(14) Days : 36
gng or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
AW non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 5/2 1Fav
WR% = 25.0


Dave
 

Attachments

  • 28_oct.xlsx
    906.7 KB · Views: 0
  • 28_oct_eps.xlsx
    40.8 KB · Views: 0
  • 28_oct_full.xlsx
    96.3 KB · Views: 2

davejb

Mare
Report for : 27/10/2020
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/15 Odds: 8.5 4.0 (Return: 14.5)
Mkt filter 2/13 Odds: 8.5 4.0 (Return: 14.5)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/3 Odds: 4.0 (Return: 5.0)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 4.0 (Return: 5.0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/8 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/5 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/4 Odds: 2.25 0.8 (Return: 5.05)
Mkt filter 2/3 Odds: 2.25 0.8 (Return: 5.05)

Total Out = 30 Total return (raw) = 24.55
Total wins: 5 / 30
List of winners:
Cat 13:10:00 Rockley Point 9.5
Sou 17:20:00 Perfect Sign (IRE) 5.0
Sou 18:20:00 Ayr Harbour 5.0
Che 12:50:00 Grand Mogul (IRE) 3.25
Ban 14:00:00 Good Boy Bobby (IRE) 1.8

Ho hum day.

Only runner today faded out of it three from home.
Tomorrow:

Stratford 14:36:00 [NH H] Class 3 [16.5f] Stks [[13] run]
76 * 4F61 Galice Macalo (FR) (Bf 3.5) Drawn 0/13 Filly
Williams Mrs Jane 0-2(1) Williams Chester 0-2(1) Days : 28
DST JCK OR
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 9/4 1Fav
WR% = 33.0

Dave
 

Attachments

  • 29_oct.xlsx
    871.9 KB · Views: 0
  • 29_oct_eps.xlsx
    36.8 KB · Views: 0
  • 29_oct_full.xlsx
    91.5 KB · Views: 3

davejb

Mare
Report for : 28/10/2020
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/15 Odds: 1.38 (Return: 2.38)
Mkt filter 1/9 Odds: 1.38 (Return: 2.38)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/7 Odds: 3.0 1.38 (Return: 6.38)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/9 Odds: 6.0 (Return: 7.0)
Mkt filter 1/6 Odds: 6.0 (Return: 7.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/9 Odds: 3.0 (Return: 4.0)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 3.0 (Return: 4.0)

Total Out = 40 Total return (raw) = 19.76
Total wins: 5 / 40
List of winners:
Dun 17:30:00 Hype (IRE) 4.0
Kem 17:45:00 Uzincso 2.38
Kem 18:45:00 Dyami (FR) 2.38
Fak 14:02:00 To Fly Free 4.0
Tau 16:10:00 From The Heart (IRE) 7.0

Poor day.

However, today's sole selection won at 11/8, so that improves things a bit.

Tomorrow:

Uttoxeter 15:10:00 [NH C] Class 3 [16f] Stks [[8] run]
85 * 1260043 Gumball (FR) (Bf 2.75) Drawn 0/8 Gelding
Hobbs P J 2-28(7) OBrien T J 3-30(8) Days : 35
GNG DST jck OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/2 2Fav
WR% = 24.0

Dave
 

Attachments

  • 30_oct.xlsx
    897.6 KB · Views: 1
  • 30_oct_eps.xlsx
    39.4 KB · Views: 0
  • 30_oct_full.xlsx
    96.2 KB · Views: 7

davejb

Mare
Report for : 29/10/2020
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/17 Odds: 5.0 6.0 (Return: 13.0)
Mkt filter 2/9 Odds: 5.0 6.0 (Return: 13.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/8 Odds: 2.0 0.8 1.75 (Return: 7.55)
Mkt filter 1/4 Odds: 0.8 (Return: 1.8)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/12 Odds: 4.5 2.5 (Return: 9.0)
Mkt filter 1/6 Odds: 2.5 (Return: 3.5)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/12 Odds: 1.5 1.38 2.0 (Return: 7.88)
Mkt filter 2/4 Odds: 1.5 1.38 (Return: 4.88)

Total Out = 49 Total return (raw) = 37.43
Total wins: 10 / 49
List of winners:
Lin 13:15:00 Mariance 3.0
Lin 15:15:00 Jacinth (IRE) 1.8
Che 17:30:00 Dancing Rave 2.75
Sou 19:15:00 Arzaak (IRE) 6.0
Sou 19:45:00 Badger Berry 7.0
Str 12:35:00 Go Millie Go (IRE) 2.5
Str 14:36:00 Galice Macalo (FR) 2.38
New 14:58:00 The Ravens Return 5.5
Str 15:06:00 When Youre Ready (IRE) 3.0
New 15:28:00 Arian (IRE) 3.5

A bit better.

Gumball did the job today, winning by 6l at 3/1, as the sole bet of the day.

Tomorrow:

Ascot 14:32:00 [NH H] Class 3 [16f] Stks [[10] run]
110 * 153U12 Fearless (IRE) (Bf 4.5) Drawn 0/10 Gelding
Murphy Olly 3-39(12) Coleman A 3-25(12) Days : 29
GNG DST jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/4 1Fav
WR% = 32.0

Down Royal 15:35:00 [NH C] [24f] Hcap [[12] run]
95 * 0700033 Cuneo (FR) (Bf 9) Drawn 0/12 Gelding
Elliott Gordon 11-62(17) Orr Conor 2-9(6) Days : 28

Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 4/1 1Fav
WR% = 15.0


Dave
 

Attachments

  • 31_oct.xlsx
    756.9 KB · Views: 0
  • 31_oct_eps.xlsx
    30.1 KB · Views: 0
  • 31_oct_full.xlsx
    89.1 KB · Views: 5

davejb

Mare
Report for : 30/10/2020
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 4/18 Odds: 0.36 1.1 5.0 8.5 (Return: 18.96)
Mkt filter 3/14 Odds: 0.36 1.1 8.5 (Return: 12.96)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 4/8 Odds: 1.38 1.25 0.83 6.5 (Return: 13.96)
Mkt filter 2/3 Odds: 1.25 0.83 (Return: 4.08)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/9 Odds: 2.5 (Return: 3.5)
Mkt filter 1/6 Odds: 2.5 (Return: 3.5)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 5/13 Odds: 4.0 66.0 6.5 2.75 3.0 (Return: 87.25)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 3.0 (Return: 4.0)

Total Out = 48 Total return (raw) = 123.67
Total wins: 14 / 48
List of winners:
New 13:10:00 Ainsdale 2.38
New 14:20:00 Solo Saxophone (IRE) 1.36
New 14:55:00 Whitehaven (FR) 2.1
New 15:30:00 Awake My Soul (IRE) 6.0
Dun 16:30:00 Anjalawi (IRE) 2.25
New 17:15:00 Komachi (IRE) 1.83
Dun 17:30:00 Nawafeth (USA) 7.5
New 19:45:00 Defence Treaty (IRE) 9.5
Utt 12:50:00 The Cob (IRE) 5.0
Dow 13:15:00 Skyace (IRE) 67.0
Utt 14:35:00 Can You Call 7.5
Wet 14:45:00 Duffle Coat (IRE) 3.75
Utt 15:10:00 Gumball (FR) 4.0
Utt 15:45:00 Black Tulip 3.5

That's the second 66/1 winner this week isn't it? The long race BF forecast was 12/1 apparently, looking at the ratings - well clear of Anna Bunina on ratings so again not a fluke, just beat the 6/5 fav by a head.

Good day there then!

Both runners today came 4th.

Tomorrow:

Huntingdon 12:48:00 [NH H] Class 4 [16f] Stks [[8] run]
66 * 9374332 Fraterculus (IRE) (Bf 4.33) Drawn 0/8 Gelding
Greenall Oliver 1-18(3) Dunne R T 2-27(6) Days : 25
gng dst
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 4/1 2Fav
WR% = 23.0

Cork 13:42:00 [NH H] [20f] Stks [[16] run]
74 * 21335P2 Majestic Maid (IRE) (Bf 2.63) Drawn 0/16 Mare
Kennedy Michael G 0-3(2) Kennedy PAddy D 3-8(4) Days : 54
jck OR
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/4 1Fav
WR% = 28.0

Huntingdon 13:49:00 [NH C] Class 3 [20f] Stks [[6] run]
92 * 4062141 Senior Citizen (Bf 5) Drawn 0/6 Gelding
King A 6-42(7) Heskin A P 3-27(8) Days : 34
GNG dst JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 9/4 2Fav
WR% = 23.0

Huntingdon 15:27:00 [NH C] Class 5 [24f] Hcap [[9] run]
75 * 132P422 West To Crossgales (IRE) (Bf 3.25) Drawn 0/9 Gelding
Pogson Charles and Adam 0-2(1) Leonard Cillin 1-7(2) Days : 66
gng DST OR
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/4 2Fav
WR% = 11.0


Dave
 

Attachments

  • 01_nov_full.xlsx
    79.4 KB · Views: 4
  • 01_nov_eps.xlsx
    21.9 KB · Views: 0
  • 01_nov.xlsx
    619.3 KB · Views: 1

davejb

Mare
Report for : 31/10/2020
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/6 Odds: 6.5 (Return: 7.5)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 6.5 (Return: 7.5)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/9 Odds: 5.0 0.5 1.88 (Return: 10.38)
Mkt filter 2/4 Odds: 0.5 1.88 (Return: 4.38)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/16 Odds: 4.5 4.5 (Return: 11.0)
Mkt filter 1/9 Odds: 4.5 (Return: 5.5)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 5/13 Odds: 0.06 1.1 4.5 1.63 3.0 (Return: 15.29)
Mkt filter 3/4 Odds: 0.06 1.1 3.0 (Return: 7.16)

Total Out = 44 Total return (raw) = 44.17
Total wins: 11 / 44
List of winners:
New 11:50:00 Urban Violet 6.0
New 13:30:00 Rains Of Castamere 7.5
Wol 20:00:00 Law Of One (IRE) 1.5
Wol 20:30:00 Love Love 2.88
Asc 12:15:00 College Oak 5.5
Dow 12:40:00 Quilixios 1.06
Wet 13:00:00 Ashtown Lad (IRE) 2.1
Asc 13:20:00 Sully Doc Aa (FR) 5.5
Dow 14:25:00 The Storyteller (IRE) 5.5
Wet 14:45:00 Roksana (IRE) 2.63
Wet 15:20:00 Cyrname (FR) 4.0

Woohoo, 17p up!

Today - there were 3 bets (Senior Citizen's race had an 8/11 fav) - 2nd 9/2, W10/11 (11/10 before the off) and 6th.

Tomorrow:

Hereford 13:40:00 [NH H] Class 4 [16f] Stks [[11] run]
69 * 5814/71 Benson (Bf 1.73) Drawn 0/11 Gelding
Newland Dr R D P 2-14(4) Twiston-Davies Sam 2-53(13) Days : 20
GNG DST
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 13/8 1Fav
WR% = 35.0

Plumpton 15:05:00 [NH H] Class 3 [16f] Hcap [[13] run]
110 * 6725051 The Twisler (Bf 8) Drawn 0/13 Gelding
Mulholland N P 6-33(9) Reed Harry 2-8(3) Days : 17
gng DST JCK
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 9/2 1Fav
WR% = 8.0

There now follows a bit about producing all this stuff, anyone who is not interested feel free to stop reading here!

I thought I'd write a little about what goes into producing these ratings each day, and picking the 'selections', because every so often (and this is not a dig at anyone I assure you) I get PMs or requests in threads that go along the lines of 'please can you tell me how to do this sort of thing'. I think there is a misconception that is held by at least some of the folk on here about what this all actually involves.

The racing day, so to speak, splits into 2 sections - sometime around midday/early afternoon I get around to turning yesterday's results into data in a variety of formats, I do this by running a series of programs that I wrote in Python. One program collects race timing info from Timeform and racing Post, when I run my data crunching program over data downloaded from HorseRaceBase I get a third set of times for each race. I then compare all three to try to figure out if my HRB figures need amending. At the same time I also check that all rail moves are correct (compared to the BHA site) and I check the Irish race distances tie in to the distances they are supposed to be. This all takes a while, not least because if any of the race times are a bit whacky (as they have been a number of times this past week), I have to watch the races on the ATR and Racing TV websites and time them myself to see who is right. This can all take anything from 15 minutes to an hour, as having corrected the data I then have to reprocess it and check that what comes out now matches the figures I believe to be correct. Standard times are also checked for each race to ensure they have not changed since last used.

I then run another program that turns the data into ratings, the output is checked, and if any meeting has a dearth of OR rated winners for comparison I used TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother 's RPR to OR conversion chart and the Racing Post RPRs (if available) to fill in for missing ORs. So that takes a few minutes. Then I run a program that checks trainer statistics, then two more programs that add the now finished ratings and the corrected/checked results data to several databases. Next programs are run to see how the ratings performed, where the top rated runners ended up, this is then added to more datafiles. Next up course win rate information is updated and added to datafiles, followed by a check of trainer and jockey win and place rates (another program), a program checks how the selections fared, and another program automates a backup of all data files to an external drive to finish off.

As I actually run two different sets of programs some of these steps are duplicated.

That all adds up to 16 Python programs that run in sequence - sometimes 1 or 2 more are used to do odd jobs along the way.

In the evening, about 6 ish, I run two programs to collect more RP data that is used while compiling my cards etc for the next day. One program collects data from numerous databases and juggles it all together in the three formats I post on here, three Excel macro enabled files load the three card/eps/ratings files and do all the nice formatting.

|That is 19 -21 programs so far, for the daily routine.

I recently compiled my own standard times, it took several weeks working several hours a day, as I worked over 5 years of racing data 'fixing' stuff that was actually inaccurate - I ended up going back over the data a number of times before I was happy to use it.

Again I programmed Python files to extract the bits of data I wanted. I did the NH racing, then AW, and finally the Flat. Half a dozen programs were used to extract, chop , reformat data - I was mixing data from two sources to get the 5 years I needed, so there was an amount of cutting each data set up to match the other and finding bits missing from one and so on. For example one data set had the going info totally unlike the other so I had to write a program that converted one to read like the other. Once the data was ready another 5 or 6 files compiled the standard times, these files were then copied and edited to do the AW and Flat data in turn.

That all amounts to around 23-25 programs to do the everyday stuff, and probably almost the same to do a big job like the standard compiling, plus a few macros in Excel to make things look pretty.

I learned HOW to handicap from Mike ( TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother ) pretty much, I'm doing things a bit differently with my new ratings (which aren't on here yet) but there's still a lot of Mike's help in there. The programming 'just' makes it possible for me to do all my work in an hour or two each day - had I to do it all manually each day I'd have quit long since.

Now, bearing the above in mind, please understand why I can't tell anyone else how to do what I do - you'd not only need to understand the handicapping side of it all, you'd have to understand how my programs run, and life is far too short to have to try to explain how several dozen programs work to folk. You can't just run the programs, you have to know how they work, so when a bit of dodgy data comes along you know how to go in and fix it.

It's not about me being secretive, or unwilling to help out, it's just a huge amount of work!

That said I am more than happy to let people in on what I produce.

Dave
 

Attachments

  • 02_nov.xlsx
    845.1 KB · Views: 1
  • 02_nov_eps.xlsx
    41.2 KB · Views: 0
  • 02_nov_full.xlsx
    87.6 KB · Views: 4
Last edited:
Top