• Hi Guest, The software has been updated but I have not had a chance to tweak anything yet.
    It took longer than I had hoped, so I just turned it on and hope everything is OK
    If you spot anything that does not look rigfhyt then please let me know.
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
  • Hi Guest, If you are seeing that Lurker has appeared under your name then please take a look here to see why. AR

Early days

hedgehog

Mare
That's a 5% profit on investment today, better than a bank and a sight quicker as you only have to wait an afternoon rather than a year. Bets are doing well.

How's the investigation into long shots going?
 

davejb

Mare
I'm only paper trading them of course, and I'm only 2 days in - yesterday there were a couple of good places as I mentioned, today there were 7 possibles that returned a 2nd at 28/1, a winner at 15/2 and a 3rd at 8/1 - all I've done for these is look at the odds of the top rated runner in each race and gone for top rated plus odds (the fc odds in the full ratings sheet column E) and waited to see what they do.

I got my full ratings routine to do a separate dump of the top 2 in each race, and so far it's just been top rated - I'm ignoring those that are the only rated horse in the field etc and really looking for runners that have at least a moderate rating. I'm also watching the flags, for example an OR flag of 2 showing a win at the current OR, or a 1 showing placed at this OR, might be a hint in handicaps. I'll see what does and doesn't pop up and catch the eye, and see if there's any mileage in it.... fairly low key therefore, there's no rush.

I'll attach the 'top2' version of the full ratings sheet - you have to ignore anything with odds of 999 (non runner) and decide for yourself what odds to go for.

For example:
Gowran 1150 (line 4) Midnight Geisha is odds of 999 so a non runner
Huntingdon 1155 Strictly Art odds 50/1, rating isn't awful, non-handicap so the OR=2 is less of a bonus, placed on going and at distance.
There are several races with the top rated at lower odds, then we come to
Gowran 1225 Chief of Police with a moderate rating, 20/1, non handicap, placed before at the distance
Haydock 1240 Amalfi Doug has a decent rating, placed at going and distance, has woin for this jockey and has won off this OR in the past.... odds a bit lower at 12/1 though.


If you look through the top2 file you'll see these are easy enough to spot an decode pretty quickly. I suspect that like all things there'll be a very low win rate and long losing runs involved!
1574466204474.png
Dave

ps I've picked a total of 11 out for tomorrow, just based on top rated and long odds - I'd expect any decent betting opportunity to require more filtering than this but until I can see what does or does not seem to help I'm just seeing what the broad brush strokes produce.
 

Attachments

Last edited:
I'm only paper trading them of course, and I'm only 2 days in - yesterday there were a couple of good places as I mentioned, today there were 7 possibles that returned a 2nd at 28/1, a winner at 15/2 and a 3rd at 8/1 - all I've done for these is look at the odds of the top rated runner in each race and gone for top rated plus odds (the fc odds in the full ratings sheet column E) and waited to see what they do.

I got my full ratings routine to do a separate dump of the top 2 in each race, and so far it's just been top rated - I'm ignoring those that are the only rated horse in the field etc and really looking for runners that have at least a moderate rating. I'm also watching the flags, for example an OR flag of 2 showing a win at the current OR, or a 1 showing placed at this OR, might be a hint in handicaps. I'll see what does and doesn't pop up and catch the eye, and see if there's any mileage in it.... fairly low key therefore, there's no rush.

I'll attach the 'top2' version of the full ratings sheet - you have to ignore anything with odds of 999 (non runner) and decide for yourself what odds to go for.

For example:
Gowran 1150 (line 4) Midnight Geisha is odds of 999 so a non runner
Huntingdon 1155 Strictly Art odds 50/1, rating isn't awful, non-handicap so the OR=2 is less of a bonus, placed on going and at distance.
There are several races with the top rated at lower odds, then we come to
Gowran 1225 Chief of Police with a moderate rating, 20/1, non handicap, placed before at the distance
Haydock 1240 Amalfi Doug has a decent rating, placed at going and distance, has woin for this jockey and has won off this OR in the past.... odds a bit lower at 12/1 though.


If you look through the top2 file you'll see these are easy enough to spot an decode pretty quickly. I suspect that like all things there'll be a very low win rate and long losing runs involved!
View attachment 79129
Dave

ps I've picked a total of 11 out for tomorrow, just based on top rated and long odds - I'd expect any decent betting opportunity to require more filtering than this but until I can see what does or does not seem to help I'm just seeing what the broad brush strokes produce.
The only one I’m backing tomorrow is Amanto in 4.40 wolves, looking at the RPR‘s to get a picture of the horse , last 4 runs are nothing flash but not completely hopeless on a couple of runs over inadequate 12f or less and a poor run over hurdles latest, before that the horse was consistently a 118 ish hurdler , I always deduct 45 to convert to flat so that would equate to 73, last flat season regularly postEd RPRs in mid 70s, if you look at AW record last 5 RPRs 78,77,80,77 and 77.
Just a chance step up to 14f on AW off handicap of 65 could be what is needed, new headgear tried also.It could be something happened to the horse prior to 6month break early this year and he’s not going to recapture previously consistant mid/late 70s performances but this is the type of horse I like to have a go at and they do pop up more often than the odds suggest.
 

davejb

Mare
Amanto is the last one on the list, which is now down to 10 runners as Starmax is a non runner - as and when I learn something useful I'll be cutting the list down of course, but for now I've no idea what to filter by. It's just a paper exercise at the moment,
Dave
 
Amanto is the last one on the list, which is now down to 10 runners as Starmax is a non runner - as and when I learn something useful I'll be cutting the list down of course, but for now I've no idea what to filter by. It's just a paper exercise at the moment,
Dave
Amanto ran like a drain , but Aquarius was a good winner for your ratings in the 4.10 , another one that got away from me, a poor days betting all round for me today.
 

davejb

Mare
The ten longshots produced 3 placed runners, two seconds at 16/1 and 7/1 (Acey Milan, who was unlucky enough to be passed by the fast finishing Stoney Mountain when he looked to have got the better of run in battle). The third was Aquarius who won at 10/1.
As straightforward one pt EW bets that'd return a bit over double the total stake, This is probably going to be one of those things where you see good returns at first, then after a bit everything tips over the cliff edge, but it's worth keeping an eye on I think - although I'm still no wiser as to how to filter the likely ones out of the bulk - I have no desire to back 10 horses a day.

Dave
 

davejb

Mare
yesterday:
Report for : 22/11/2019
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/9 Odds: 7.5 (Return: 8.5)
Mkt filter 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/7 Odds: 1.38 0.33 (Return: 3.71)
Mkt filter 2/2 Odds: 1.38 0.33 (Return: 3.71)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/9 Odds: 9.0 (Return: 10.0)
Mkt filter 1/6 Odds: 9.0 (Return: 10.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/11 Odds: 1.1 (Return: 2.1)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 1.1 (Return: 2.1)

Total Out = 36 Total return (raw) = 24.31
Total wins: 5 / 36

Again not a fantastic day.

today:
No bets. The only 'selection' was odds on and ran poorly.

tomorrow:

Navan 13:00:00 [NH H] Grade 3 [20f] Stks [[6] run]
93 * 1O4211 Abacadabras (FR) (Bf 1.67) Drawn 0/6 Gelding
Elliott Gordon 6-64(18) Power R M 8-39(18) Days : 14
gng JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 8/15 1Fav
WR% = 21.0

Navan 13:30:00 [NH H] [16f] Hcap [[13] run]
82 * 506F2 Encore Lui (FR) (Bf 3.5) Drawn 0/13 Gelding
Doyle Miss Elizabeth 2-9(3) Walsh M P 10-29(16) Days : 14
dst
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/4 1Fav
WR% = 7.0

Uttoxeter 13:40:00 [NH H] Class 4 [16f] Stks [[14] run]
95 * 34P2 Molly Ollys Wishes (Bf 5) Drawn 0/14 Mare
Skelton Daniel 14-44(8) Skelton Harry 11-34(20) Days : 23
gng dst jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/4 2Fav
WR% = 26.0

Uttoxeter 14:40:00 [NH H] Class 3 [23.5f] Hcap [[6] run]
93 * 4P62008 Coole Cody (IRE) (Bf 9) Drawn 0/6 Gelding
Blake Michael 0-1(0) Bowen Mr S P 2-26(9) Days : 36
GNG dst OR
Passes: Odds
Fails: Form Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/2 1Fav
WR% = 14.0


I've added the 'top2' file again so you can see the what I'm using for the long shots, generally I'm looking at odds of 15+, although that's not necessarily what they end up starting at.... I'll deal with that issue as and when I decide it's worth betting on them, which won't be anytime soon I don't think.

Dave
 

Attachments

davejb

Mare
yesterday:
Report for : 23/11/2019
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/9 Odds: 10.0 (Return: 11.0)
Mkt filter 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/6 Odds: 0.91 1.25 (Return: 4.16)
Mkt filter 2/3 Odds: 0.91 1.25 (Return: 4.16)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/12 Odds: 7.0 (Return: 8.0)
Mkt filter 1/5 Odds: 7.0 (Return: 8.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/15 Odds: 2.5 (Return: 3.5)
Mkt filter 0/6 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 42 Total return (raw) = 26.66
Total wins: 5 / 42

Still going slow.

today:
3 runners, no winners, bah!

tomorrow:

Musselburgh 12:45:00 [NH H] Class 4 [16f] Stks [[12] run]
79 * 11031 Timetochill (IRE) (Bf 3) Drawn 0/12 Mare
Morgan Miss Kelly 0-3(1) Noonan Mr D G 0-23(6) Days : 18
GNG DST
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 4/5 1Fav
WR% = 22.0

Kempton AW 13:30:00 [NH C] Class 4 [18.5f] Stks [[8] run]
101 * 1123122 Thomas Darby (IRE) (Bf 2.25) Drawn 0/8 Gelding
Murphy Olly 5-24(4) Johnson Richard 8-41(17) Days : 17
GNG JCK or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET Evs 1Fav
WR% = 27.0

At those prices this could be a no bet day.

The longshots - only tqo of them, the best of them was Darren's Hope who managed 6th at 33/1. Top 2 listing attached as before....9 races with qualifiers in so plenty to watch out for.
Dave
 

Attachments

hedgehog

Mare
@davejb, instead of thinking about starting with ew bets, what about place bets on the exchange? You'd half your outlay and could at first calculate the return as 20% of the sp odds without having to take a view of the exchange odds. If it made a profit you could then think about bfsp which you can check by going into horse racing/meetings after the race.

Good luck tomorrow
 

davejb

Mare
Hi @Hedghog sure, but I'm not thinking of betting on these at all yet, I want to see a reasonable percentage of placings before I bother putting money on them, and two or three days results don't constitute my idea of due diligence.... okay, if I'd picked 30 over 3 days and 20 had won or placed I'd probably be getting a bit eager, but at the moment it's all still firmly in the land of wait and see what, if anything, pops up. I am looking at the ones that would produce a return and trying to see if there's anything linking them, something where I can determine a set of rules to go by, such as 'odds of x and above, top rated by y pts clear, or has to have been placed at this OR, or has to have had a course place' or something - I am not interested in having 10 a day to go at.

IF I end up with something I think worth betting on then I will indeed consider the exchange for place betting, probably a small win and larger place bet, to reflect the likelihood of having more placers than winners.

Dave
 

davejb

Mare
9 top rated left after Midnight Maestro became a non runner, Chirico Vallis won at 16/1, nothing else placed - whilst this is profitable it's very uncomfortable! Not my idea of sustainable so far, it would be too easy for the single placer/winner to lose and you've got s blank day with maybe 10 or more losers - in a couple of days you'd be wiped out.... and you can be pretty sure, at these odds, that those couple of days would arrive at some point.

yesterday:
Report for : 24/11/2019
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/8 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/4 Odds: 2.0 (Return: 3.0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 12 Total return (raw) = 3.0
Total wins: 1 / 12

Oooh, these days with few races seem to throw up whitewashes far too readily.

today:
Timetochill (W4/7) was, obviously, not a bet at that price. Thomas Darby eased from 4/5 or so to evens then proceeded to get run off his feet.

tomorrow:

Punchestown 12:40:00 [NH H] [16.5f] Stks [[16] run]
112 * 577734 Instant Return (IRE) (Bf 5) Drawn 0/16 Gelding
Harrington Mrs John 3-21(6) Power R M 10-43(22) Days : 14
gng dst or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 3/1 2Fav
WR% = 19.0

Punchestown 14:10:00 [NH H] [21.5f] Hcap [[17] run]
68 * 3544 Tokyo Getaway (IRE) (Bf 8) Drawn 0/17 Mare
Cromwell Gavin Patrick 2-24(2) Moore J M 1-16(2) Days : 30

Passes: Stable Odds
Fails: Form
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 6/1 2Fav
WR% = 14.0

Sedgefield 14:20:00 [NH H] Class 4 [17f] Stks [[7] run]
75 * 2443415 The Steward (USA) (Bf 3.5) Drawn 0/7 Gelding
Moffatt James 0-2(0) Bewley Mr C 0-10(2) Days : 24
DST JCK
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 11/4 2Fav
WR% = 30.0

Southwell AW 15:00:00 [NH H] Class 5 [15.5f] Hcap [[10] run]
94 * 7487052 All Good Things (IRE) (Bf 5.5) Drawn 0/10 Gelding
Sheppard M 0-3(1) Sheppard Mr Stan 0-11(1) Days : 10
gng dst jck or
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 3/1 1Fav
WR% = 12.0

Sedgefield 15:20:00 [NH H] Class 4 [17f] Hcap [[10] run]
86 * 72F1 Paricolor (FR) (Bf 2.38) Drawn 0/10 Gelding
Pipe D E 4-27(4) Gillard Fergus 1-5(2) Days : 7
JCK
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/4 1Fav
WR% = 22.0

Wolverhampton AW 16:50:00 [AW] Class 6 [7f] Stks [[11] run]
45 * 4853321 You Dont Own Me (IRE) (Bf 3.75) Drawn 1/11 (P) Filly
Tuite Joseph 1-5(1) Jamin Pierre-Louis 1-2(1) Days : 6
gng dst
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
AW non-handicap - passes FORM and ODDS - BET 11/4 1Fav
WR% = 25.0


Only three in the top2 list for tomorrow, Yorgonnahearmeroar, Flynsini, and Beeverstown Bullet, we'll see how they go.
Dave
 

Attachments

davejb

Mare
longshots - all 3 nowhere, best of the trio was Flynsini who was left in 3rd place two out but got run out of the place as he weakened, 25/1 4th. This is not unexpected of course, there ought to be significant losing runs with these - this is why there needs to be some way to filter the qualifiers to reduce the number of possible bets as well as, hopefully, the loss rate.

yesterday:
Report for : 25/11/2019
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/13 Odds: 2.75 16.0 2.75 (Return: 24.5)
Mkt filter 2/6 Odds: 2.75 2.75 (Return: 7.5)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/7 Odds: 0.57 4.5 (Return: 7.07)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 0.57 (Return: 1.57)

Total Out = 27 Total return (raw) = 31.57
Total wins: 5 / 27

Not a packet, but nice to get a winning day again after a good few losing ones.

today:
5 bets, 2 won - All Good Things and Paricolor - SPs for these two were 2/1 and 5/6, so if backed at SP that's 5 pts out and only 4.84 or thereabouts back, a 1/6 pt loss. Backed at midday I got 3/1 and 5/4 for a small profit of 1.25 pts, ie 125% return, which is okay if consistent but with the ups and downs that are common here it's pretty slim.

tomorrow:

Hereford 12:30:00 [NH H] Class 4 [19.5f] Hcap [[18] run]
88 * 7237822 Cougar Kid (IRE) (Bf 6.5) Drawn 0/18 Gelding
Oshea J G M 0-2(0) Hampson Miss B 1-5(3) Days : 15
GNG DST JCK OR
Passes: Form Odds
Fails: Stable
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 6/1 2Fav
WR% = 14.0

Hereford 13:00:00 [NH H] Class 4 [19.5f] Stks [[15] run]
97 * 2131 Olly The Brave (Bf 2.2) Drawn 0/15 Gelding
Skelton Daniel 13-53(6) Andrews Miss B 4-12(5) Days : 23
jck
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 4/9 1Fav
WR% = 23.0

Wetherby 13:50:00 [NH H] Class 4 [16f] Stks [[15] run]
93 * 8336931 Proschema (IRE) (Bf 4.33) Drawn 0/15 Gelding
Skelton Daniel 13-53(6) Skelton Harry 10-35(15) Days : 25
GNG DST JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 15/8 1Fav
WR% = 28.0

2 for tomorrow probably then.
Dave
 

Attachments

hedgehog

Mare
Don't down play making a profit @davejb , I for one would love one as would most of the people on the tipping comp. It all adds up, revel in it!

If you filter the longshots to horses that have had a place in the last 3 runs I think your results will improve. Just an idea.

Well done
 

davejb

Mare
Outsiders still low win rates (no surprise) - only one placer from the 15/1 + odds lot, 3rd at SP 11/1. There were a few others at shorter, but then there ought to be.

yesterday:
Report for : 26/11/2019
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/4 Odds: 7.0 (Return: 8.0)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 7.0 (Return: 8.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/4 Odds: 0.91 1.63 (Return: 4.54)
Mkt filter 2/3 Odds: 0.91 1.63 (Return: 4.54)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 3/11 Odds: 3.5 2.0 0.83 (Return: 9.33)
Mkt filter 3/6 Odds: 3.5 2.0 0.83 (Return: 9.33)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/9 Odds: 8.0 0.53 (Return: 10.53)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 0.53 (Return: 1.53)

Total Out = 28 Total return (raw) = 32.4
Total wins: 8 / 28

Again just a small profit.

today:
Two losers, neither made much of a showing.

tomorrow:
Taunton 12:35:00 [NH H] Class 4 [16.5f] Stks [[13] run]
108 * 31F5 Eritage (FR) (Bf 1.91) Drawn 0/13 Gelding
Nicholls P F 6-41(17) Cobden Mr H 6-37(19) Days : 23
gng dst jck OR
Passes: Stable Odds
Fails: Form
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 8/11 1Fav
WR% = 29.0

Thurles 13:25:00 [NH H] [16f] Stks [[18] run]
90 * 2723234 Pienta (USA) (Bf 3.25) Drawn 0/18 Gelding
Meade Noel 3-35(6) Flanagan S W 1-31(8) Days : 11
dst jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 9/4 1Fav
WR% = 21.0

Ffos Las 13:35:00 [NH C] Class 4 [19.5f] Hcap [[5] run]
86 * F5210P3 Golden Whisky (IRE) (Bf 2.38) Drawn 0/5 Gelding
Williams Evan 3-36(7) Wedge Mr A 4-29(8) Days : 22
DST JCK or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET Evs 1Fav
WR% = 11.0

Probably one bet there, possibly two.
 

Attachments

pete

Mare
3.30 Lingfield - Chetan @ 13/2+
Likely front runner tomorrow, but front runners over 1m on AW is not as significant as the ones I usually post on here.
Was not too far away last time out in first run after a break, should be slightly fitter for that one.
Last three wins have been over this distance so last time may have been a little sharp. This race tomorrow looks a little easier than last time out. Dropping down the weights and runs off OR 8lb lower than last win. (effectively off 52 tomorrow after claimer allowance) Jockey change tomorrow to last winning rider. Has put up a string of wins in the past and this one has a couple of other entries in the next week or so, could be poised to put a couple of good runs together. Price seems fair for chances. Top on class ratings sheet, also has highest last time out speed figure from TBB speed ratings. I'm happy to take a chance with this one from the front tomorrow.
 

davejb

Mare
yesterday:
Report for : 27/11/2019
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/8 Odds: 2.0 (Return: 3.0)
Mkt filter 1/5 Odds: 2.0 (Return: 3.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/8 Odds: 8.0 (Return: 9.0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/8 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/6 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 30 Total return (raw) = 12.0
Total wins: 2 / 30

Painful.

today:
The two no bets (due odds) won at 8/11 and 4/6 of course while Pienta, the bet at 6/4, ran out of puff after the last and ended up third.

tomorrow:

Newbury 12:45:00 [NH C] Class 3 [16.5f] Hcap [[8] run]
127 * 1321722 Southfield Stone (Bf 4.5) Drawn 0/8 Gelding
Nicholls P F 4-35(16) Cobden Mr H 6-34(18) Days : 15
gng DST JCK or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/2 1Fav
WR% = 16.0

Limerick 14:10:00 [NH H] [16f] Hcap [[10] run]
84 * 0243304 Father Ailbe (IRE) (Bf 7.5) Drawn 0/10 Gelding
Cromwell Gavin Patrick 2-26(4) Kane J B 1-5(1) Days : 19
dst OR
Passes: Stable Odds
Fails: Form
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 7/1 2Fav
WR% = 11.0

Both of these look a bit like they're from the 'less likely' box, but what do I know? I shall continue to rattle the chicken bones and hope for luck to strike.

The outsiders managed the odd place today, one at slightly less than my target (forecast 15/1) even won, but overall not a lot doing - I'll keep posting the 'top2' list until Saturday night then discontinue it unless anyone asks for it as I don't want to clutter things up any more than I have to. I have a week's worth of back data to look over, along with all the other things, if inspiration strikes.

Dave
Dave
 

Attachments

davejb

Mare
yesterday:
Report for : 28/11/2019
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/10 Odds: 7.0 (Return: 8.0)
Mkt filter 0/6 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/5 Odds: 0.67 (Return: 1.67)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 0.67 (Return: 1.67)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/13 Odds: 0.67 (Return: 1.67)
Mkt filter 1/4 Odds: 0.67 (Return: 1.67)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/8 Odds: 0.73 0.73 0.4 (Return: 4.86)
Mkt filter 3/5 Odds: 0.73 0.73 0.4 (Return: 4.86)

Total Out = 36 Total return (raw) = 16.2
Total wins: 6 / 36

Still in the doldrums

today:
One loser (3rd at 5/1), one winner at 4/1 (5/1 an hour before the off).

tomorrow:

Newcastle AW 11:45:00 [NH H] Class 2 [16f] Stks [[5] run]
56 * 5413241 Robeam (IRE) (Bf 2.5) Drawn 0/5 Gelding
Ellison B 1-3(1) Brooke Henry 3-19(8) Days : 41
OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/2 2Fav
WR% = 22.0

Newbury 12:40:00 [NH C] Grade 2 [23.5f] Stks [[3] run]
104 * 7111121 Reserve Tank (IRE) (Bf 1.67) Drawn 0/3 Gelding
Tizzard C L 7-24(8) Power R M 10-38(21) Days : 21
GNG JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 8/15 1Fav
WR% = 25.0

Newcastle AW 12:55:00 [NH H] Class 2 [22f] Stks [[8] run]
88 * 4231 Imperial Alcazar (IRE) (Bf 3) Drawn 0/8 Gelding
OBrien Fergal 9-29(5) Brennan P J 5-33(11) Days : 34
JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 9/4 1Fav
WR% = 22.0

Newcastle AW 14:40:00 [NH H] Class 4 [16f] Stks [[10] run]
94 * 18027 Thor De Cerisy (FR) (Bf 5) Drawn 0/10 Gelding
Scudamore M J 2-10(1) Patrick Mr Richard 2-17(5) Days : 7
DST OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 6/4 1Fav
WR% = 22.0

A few for tomorrow then.
 

Attachments

davejb

Mare
yesterday:
Report for : 29/11/2019
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/17 Odds: 3.0 1.63 (Return: 6.63)
Mkt filter 2/11 Odds: 3.0 1.63 (Return: 6.63)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/6 Odds: 0.53 1.1 (Return: 3.63)
Mkt filter 2/3 Odds: 0.53 1.1 (Return: 3.63)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/8 Odds: 4.0 (Return: 5.0)
Mkt filter 1/4 Odds: 4.0 (Return: 5.0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/9 Odds: 2.25 (Return: 3.25)
Mkt filter 0/2 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 40 Total return (raw) = 18.51
Total wins: 6 / 40

The pants results continue for the full ratings.

today:
Three actual runners as Reserve Tank was well odds on. RObeam 3rd, Imperial Alcazar 2nd - not the luckiest horse on the run in though, and finally Thor De Cerisy won easily at 11/8, or 5/2 if you got on Betfair at 1130 or earlier, which turned a losing day into a small win thankfully.
To repeat myself, a regular event, the opportunity to take BOG prices is pretty important while your facility to do so lasts - it has tuned losing days into slightly profitable ones a great many times in the last year - and it's not that difficult to remember to check the odds an hour or so before your first race is due off while the bookies are still putting up prices that are likely to change by the off. I don't agonise over picking the right time to grab the optimum price, which (if successful) could provide a nice boost, but it does give you the price taken and the SP - two bites at the cherry.

tomorrow:

Fairyhouse 12:30:00 [NH H] Grade 3 [16f] Stks [[9] run]
139 * 4530221 Cerberus (Bf 3) Drawn 0/9 Gelding
OBrien Joseph Patrick 5-49(11) Power R M 10-39(21) Days : 19
gng DST OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 13/8 2Fav
WR% = 21.0

Carlisle 12:50:00 [NH C] Class 3 [16f] Stks [[3] run]
111 * 1311222 Im To Blame (IRE) (Bf 1.22) Drawn 0/3 Gelding
Dalgleish Keith 1-18(1) Quinlan Sean 0-13(3) Days : 28
DST jck
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 1/8 1Fav
WR% = 24.0

Carlisle 13:50:00 [NH C] Listed Race [20f] Stks [[5] run]
97 * 31U1FP1 Atlanta Ablaze (Bf 2.38) Drawn 0/5 Mare
Daly H D 2-15(3) Johnson Richard 6-39(13) Days : 24
GNG DST JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 4/5 1Fav
WR% = 24.0

Probably just the Fairyhouse one, due to poor odds. Not wishing to kybosh I'm To Blame but three runner races aren't unknown for overturning the red hot favourite.

Unless somebody wants them, this will be the last top2 list I'm posting - they're available no bother, but I'm figuring nobody is making use of them?
Dave
 

Attachments

Top