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Early days

davejb

Mare
That's a nice thought, but over any length of time the ratings will show a level stakes loss - like most things you get good days and bad. The point isn't to hope that the good days (and winners) will become more frequent but to figure out why the ratings work out when they do - find the common factors amongst the winners, and look to see if those winning pointers are absent when the ratings get it wrong, and we might then start finding ways to identify the races to follow the ratings in.

That's the idea of the daily selections, which (to level stakes) are about breaking even to slightly profitable - another step forward would see fairly consistent profit = job done. This is not a quick process, it's taken a couple of years to get to this point, and it's been almost a year since the last step forward!

Dave
 

pete

Mare
17:15 Southwell. Canford Bay. E/W @ 8/1

Early pace horse in 5f races at Southwell have Impact Value of 2.21.

ep.PNG

Canford shows up well on pace forecast from @davejb's EP figures, has the highest last time out speed figure from TBB, and shows up well in cheshams class ratings chart. Ran a very good race last time out and seems to be in form, worry would be the lack of experience on the surface, but given the high probability of the lead, the rest will be trying to get back to him on the run in. Has fallen back from high OR of 83 after last win, down to 80 (last win was off 79) Can be competitive against these and price makes each way value seem more than fair @ approx 8/1 @ 1/4 odds.
 

mick

Sire
That's a nice thought, but over any length of time the ratings will show a level stakes loss - like most things you get good days and bad. The point isn't to hope that the good days (and winners) will become more frequent but to figure out why the ratings work out when they do - find the common factors amongst the winners, and look to see if those winning pointers are absent when the ratings get it wrong, and we might then start finding ways to identify the races to follow the ratings in.
Some good thoughts above with the worthy objective of seeking to make best use of what we have. Even when the ratings used are of our own creation we will still be on a learning curve Re why they are working, when and where.
 

davejb

Mare
Hard luck @pete - you must have thought you were on a winner 1f out.

yesterday:
Report for : 17/11/2019
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/14 Odds: 16.0 (Return: 17.0)
Mkt filter 0/7 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 3/16 Odds: 0.33 4.5 4.0 (Return: 11.83)
Mkt filter 2/4 Odds: 0.33 4.0 (Return: 6.33)

Total Out = 30 Total return (raw) = 28.83
Total wins: 4 / 30

Hmmmm.

today:
2 losers. One odds on winner that, of course, wasn't backed.

tomorrow:

Fakenham 13:10:00 [NH H] Class 5 [21f] Hcap [[4] run]
87 * 3F36113 Skeaping (Bf 2.5) Drawn 0/4 Gelding
MiddletonP W 1-2(0) Lee Mr S 1-2(1) Days : 19
GNG or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 9/4 2Fav
WR% = 23.0

Just the one then.
Dave
 

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hedgehog

Mare
That's only a point or so loss on the figures @davejb, are you sure your making a loss on the figures recently? From outside it looks like little out, more in?
 

pete

Mare
Hard luck @pete - you must have thought you were on a winner 1f out.
Never got the early lead and was picked off easy enough, but did look handy 1f out.
"Not a loss" is often as good as a win when you feel out of the groove. Small profit on the day.
Not sure why I can't get into the swing of things recently. On and up. :)
 

davejb

Mare
Hi @hedgehog
There have been some good days recently, but over the whole 2 years or so of doing the ratings I know they are a little bit down - not a huge amount, but definitely not in profit. Like (I suspect) most ratings systems there are periods of going through the doldrums, I tend to notice this most when the going turns heavy although I suspect any period of going change probably kicks in a spell of poor returns .... a wet spring going into a nice June would probably see lots of soft going runners suddenly being trounced by those preferring firmer.

It's not something I worry about though, as I figure that the profits will come from cherry picking the top rated runners to find the few that win each day. Yesterday for example there were three winners, one odds on but two at 4/1 and 9/2 - all I need is a crystal ball to spot those two in amongst the rest!

Dave
 
Hi @hedgehog
There have been some good days recently, but over the whole 2 years or so of doing the ratings I know they are a little bit down - not a huge amount, but definitely not in profit. Like (I suspect) most ratings systems there are periods of going through the doldrums, I tend to notice this most when the going turns heavy although I suspect any period of going change probably kicks in a spell of poor returns .... a wet spring going into a nice June would probably see lots of soft going runners suddenly being trounced by those preferring firmer.

It's not something I worry about though, as I figure that the profits will come from cherry picking the top rated runners to find the few that win each day. Yesterday for example there were three winners, one odds on but two at 4/1 and 9/2 - all I need is a crystal ball to spot those two in amongst the rest!

Dave
Your ratings are a fantastic guide imo, just today last 3 races at Kempton 25/1 top rated 45/1 on betfair , then 8/1 2nd top rated wins then another 2nd top horse wins at 20/1, I’ve managed to royally mess up today and missed them all , but just a few days ago you had Roller 33/1 winner at Wolves and did had a small bet on that at huge odds on betdaq, your ratings give me a lot of pleasure in since I started following them , honestly I only showing modest profit but that’s much better than I was doing pre-race before I stated using the ratings, I tend to just pick and choose a few big prices in flat handicaps but and I found your ratings the best way to occasionally land on one.Today though I concentrated on Chelmsford for my bets so kicking myself. Well done again.
 

davejb

Mare
Hi @Outlander
As ever I am pleased to hear that somebody is making good use of the work, and you epitomise my point about what I consider to be the purpose of the ratings - nobody will get rich from backing every top rated runner (I am quite surprised to see that going broke would be a fairly slow process) but if you choose a bit of an angle to follow then you can do quite well with them. Each individual is free to choose the best way to make use of them, and it's good to see people doing that.

Dave
 
Hi @Outlander
As ever I am pleased to hear that somebody is making good use of the work, and you epitomise my point about what I consider to be the purpose of the ratings - nobody will get rich from backing every top rated runner (I am quite surprised to see that going broke would be a fairly slow process) but if you choose a bit of an angle to follow then you can do quite well with them. Each individual is free to choose the best way to make use of them, and it's good to see people doing that.

Dave
And Wimpole Hall in the last at Chelmsford just another 20/1 winner to round off the day in style for your ratings, superb stuff Dave
 

davejb

Mare
yesterday:

Report for : 18/11/2019
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/9 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/5 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/4 Odds: 3.0 (Return: 4.0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/5 Odds: 0.44 3.5 (Return: 5.94)
Mkt filter 2/4 Odds: 0.44 3.5 (Return: 5.94)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 19 Total return (raw) = 9.94
Total wins: 3 / 19

Humdrum day there....

today:

One runner, came second.

tomorrow:

Fakenham 13:10:00 [NH H] Class 5 [21f] Hcap [[4] run]
87 * 3F36113 Skeaping (Bf 2.5) Drawn 0/4 Gelding
MiddletonP W 1-2(0) Lee Mr S 1-2(1) Days : 19
GNG or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 9/4 2Fav
WR% = 23.0


Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
Damnit I posted the selection from the day before - not that it's going to cheer anyone up but I had one bet for today, and it won at 15/8 (SP 13/8)- sorry for the mix up.

yesterday:
Report for : 19/11/2019
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/9 Odds: 25.0 20.0 (Return: 47.0)
Mkt filter 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/7 Odds: 1.38 (Return: 2.38)
Mkt filter 0/0 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/11 Odds: 1.63 10.0 (Return: 13.63)
Mkt filter 2/8 Odds: 1.63 10.0 (Return: 13.63)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/7 Odds: 1.38 (Return: 2.38)
Mkt filter 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 34 Total return (raw) = 65.39
Total wins: 6 / 34

Not a bad day there then.

today: As I admitted above, numpty. Sorry but I'm copying, cutting and pasting stuff like a maniac decorator and just didn''t notice I'd copied yesterday's text file instead of today's.

tomorrow:

Wincanton 14:50:00 [NH H] Class 4 [21.5f] Stks [[13] run]
89 * 9443 Saint De Reve (FR) (Bf 6) Drawn 0/13 Gelding
Nicholls P F 5-45(13) Cobden Mr H 5-41(19) Days : 16
dst jck or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 3/1 1Fav
WR% = 26.0

Wincanton 15:20:00 [NH C] Class 3 [16f] Hcap [[9] run]
114 * 2145132 Baddesley Knight (IRE) (Bf 9) Drawn 0/9 Gelding
Gordon C 2-19(5) Cannon Mr T J 4-32(16) Days : 33
GNG DST JCK or
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 4/1 2Fav
WR% = 13.0


I think Glynn has a very good chance of winning on his hurdling debut (and rules debut) and will not be backing Saint De Reve as a consequence. I have a very small share in Glynn, I hasten to add that the info from the stable/syndicate does not say they think he will win, but they are hopeful of a good run that will see him make further progress. I don't see this as being very strong opposition.

Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
Yeah, but the wrong sort of winning bet - the sort you don't tell people about beforehand! Some days I'm juggling lots of stuff and silly things like this creep in, I need an editor!
 

davejb

Mare
yesterday:
Report for : 20/11/2019
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/8 Odds: 4.0 (Return: 5.0)
Mkt filter 1/3 Odds: 4.0 (Return: 5.0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/8 Odds: 0.8 (Return: 1.8)
Mkt filter 1/2 Odds: 0.8 (Return: 1.8)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 2/9 Odds: 1.63 2.25 (Return: 5.88)
Mkt filter 1/4 Odds: 2.25 (Return: 3.25)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 1/8 Odds: 1.1 (Return: 2.1)
Mkt filter 0/1 Odds: (Return: 0)

Total Out = 33 Total return (raw) = 14.78
Total wins: 5 / 33

Bah.

today:
Two bets - as Glynn was withdrawn (sore shins, should be back to full health quickly) I took the bet on Saint De Reve, as I was no longer betting against my own horse, he won by miles at 5/4 (13/8 earlier). Baddesley Knight then won the next race at 5/2 (same price I got earlier, I missed the opening price of 10/3 sadly) - not as easily, he had the second pressing him quite hard, both drew away from the rest which looked quite impressive I thought.... worth remembering given not to hard a job next time out.

tomorrow:

Ascot 14:05:00 [NH H] Class 2 [16f] Stks [[7] run]
67 * 121052 Master Debonair (Bf 3.75) Drawn 0/7 Gelding
Tizzard C L 6-34(10) Power R M 6-39(16) Days : 28
gng DST jck OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 13/8 1Fav
WR% = 38.0

Ascot 15:45:00 [NH H] Class 2 [16f] Hcap [[10] run]
117 * 9243212 Red Force One (Bf 3.75) Drawn 0/10 Gelding
Nicholls P F 4-44(15) Cobden Mr H 5-39(19) Days : 20
gng DST JCK OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH Handicap - passes ODDS - BET 5/2 1Fav
WR% = 16.0

Dave
 

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davejb

Mare
yesterday:
Report for : 21/11/2019
Flat Handicaps
Raw ratings: 0/9 Odds: (Return: 0)
Mkt filter 0/4 Odds: (Return: 0)

Flat Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/5 Odds: 6.5 0.17 (Return: 8.67)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 0.17 (Return: 1.17)

NH Handicaps
Raw ratings: 1/13 Odds: 2.5 (Return: 3.5)
Mkt filter 0/3 Odds: (Return: 0)

NH Non - Handicaps
Raw ratings 2/9 Odds: 0.8 1.25 (Return: 4.05)
Mkt filter 1/1 Odds: 0.8 (Return: 1.8)

Total Out = 36 Total return (raw) = 16.22
Total wins: 5 / 36

Another blah sort of day there.

today:
2 runners, one winner at 11/10 (5/4 earlier, my wife managed 6/4....)

tomorrow:

Huntingdon 12:30:00 [NH H] Class 4 [16f] Stks [[11] run]
90 * 72122 Perfect Predator (Bf 2.1) Drawn 0/11 Gelding
King A 6-27(7) Cannon Mr T J 5-37(18) Days : 19
DST OR
Passes: Form Stable Odds
Fails:
NH non-handicap - passes ODDS - BET 4/6 1Fav
WR% = 16.0

Probably no bets then.
 

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