TBH Outlander I haven't looked at the stat's as such. I haven't had time to because when you have to take all the variables and import the stats for all the different number of runners separately for every track it's an enormous task. I couldn't have remembered them all even if I had tried. Jockey tactics are something I have been unable to include so you are always going to see that kind of thing going on at Lingfield when savvy jockeys are up.
I haven't built all the software. The ratings themselves are imported from proprietary software that I already subscribe to, into into an open source SQL database that I have configured on one of my Linux PC's for the purpose of adjusting the ratings and then recalculating the rankings. The stats for bias go back 5 years in order to make sure I have a decent sample size but they don't take into account moving the running rails or changes to drainage systems and the like. You can only do so much to try to maintain some kind of accuracy. The problem with back testing is that it can only be done on a day by day basis. I can't just press a button and get the whole five years results off in one run. That's one of the reasons as to why it's more of an experiment than a tried and tested method.
Chesham .| Pos | Dist | Horse | Trainer | Age | Weight | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st (2) | 5 Venturous (IRE) | T D Barron | 9 | 9-0 | Connor Beasley | 25/1 | |
| Chased leaders early, dropped to last but in touch after 1f, waiting for room 2f out, switched right from under 2f out and in the clear entering final 1f, quickened to challenge well inside final furlong and soon led, going away at line, readily |
For Newcastle you generally want one that can be strong up the hill to the line. You need a horse that can stay on well at the distance it is running over. Long stride, a horse that takes a while to get into top gear is fine.
This is the nail on the head for me to be honest, I wouldn‘t care if say at one course over 7f for example 45% of races are won by prominent runners and only 25% won by hold up horses, if there was a race there with 5 mad front runners all battling for the lead you would want to on one out the back . I think overall pace analysis is race specific and even then rarely course specific, you see them win from the front and the back at all courses depending on the specific pace in individual races, I think there can be days when maybe because of conditions and maybe draw biases at the course itself can favour front runners, I think of some days in the summer at Lingfield Turf or even Windsor basically it has been who can lead on the rail wins. But they mess around so much with watering and rail movements now that a golden highway for front runners one day can be moved 5 metres in the next day into the swamp where runners were flailing at the previous meeting but giving punters the illusion it’s still the same rail they are running on.
pawras,
Chesham,
O
Outlander, and
pete.
That is possible but I'm not a professional coder and I don't do this for a living. It's taken yonks just to get this far. Trying to turn it into HRB isn't going to happen over night. Also, I didn't expect to come up with something that would bankrupt the bookies at my first attempt. The original Idea was to attempt to profile the kind of horse that was best suited to today's race conditions using the variables I have chosen and comparing them against the attributes of horses that have already been successful. Think of it in terms of Timeform's TRW rating system only trying to do it for more than just the one variable.
Bill Benter managed it at the Hong Kong race track. He was failing until he fed in the Tote Betting and then made millions
Yes no one alive is going to beat any tote rake, he was clever enough to get the loss down to a small enough percentage so that he could take advantage of overly generous rebates. He also somehow was allowed to put HK$millions and tickets into the tote system something the average punter couldn’t , then you can wait for all the dead millions in the triple trio rollovers and buy up most of the combinations, the HK tote simply took away his advantage so the cash cow stopped.
Why were they getting rebates in the first place ? anyone know
I think cos if the amount of money he was pumping into the sys
I'm gonna check this out thanks for posting. It's early days yet as I keep saying but if it proves the basic theory to be sound, fine tuning by improvement can only bring benefits I would have thought.
Rebates are common for high volume players in tote systems, I know for a fact that U.K. tote has in the very recent past and probably still does give rebates.
