paulb164
Colt
Just sifting through some of the slightly older threads on here, and came across the 'Betting a MASSIVE amount on a sure thing...' one. After reading it, it made me think about whether it could be made to work somehow. It can be dangerous to bet on individual cases based on the 'surely can't lose this' mentality... but surely some statistical analysis coupled with a decent staking and compound betting plan might make it a viable option ?
In mathematical theory, 15 winning bets at odds of 1.05 in a row would actually double your bank if you bet the whole bank after each winning bet (including minus the 5% commission if betting on exchanges like Betfair). Only 8 consecutive winning bets at 1.1 has the same outcome... so how difficult can it be ?
So... I am going to give it a go to see just how practical or feasible doing this can be. I am going to follow these rules;
1. I will be starting with a £100 bank, and each bet will be 50% of the bank - I feel I need to protect the bank at least a little bit. After all, even a 1.05 odds event still has a small chance of losing ! The idea is to see if I can reduce that chance to zero with the right picks (though (bad) luck will play a part at some point I suspect)
2. the picks will be under 1.1 odds - hopefully in around 20 wins time we'll see a doubling of initial bank
3. the picks will mainly be from football and often from the goals market (since around 94% of football games have at least 1 goal, that seems to be the place to look for my bets). There may be the odd horse racing pick, but these will likely be on the lines of a clear favourite in the place market
4. I will probably pick more than 1 bet per day and hope to double up within a few days rather than weeks
Input invited.
In mathematical theory, 15 winning bets at odds of 1.05 in a row would actually double your bank if you bet the whole bank after each winning bet (including minus the 5% commission if betting on exchanges like Betfair). Only 8 consecutive winning bets at 1.1 has the same outcome... so how difficult can it be ?
So... I am going to give it a go to see just how practical or feasible doing this can be. I am going to follow these rules;
1. I will be starting with a £100 bank, and each bet will be 50% of the bank - I feel I need to protect the bank at least a little bit. After all, even a 1.05 odds event still has a small chance of losing ! The idea is to see if I can reduce that chance to zero with the right picks (though (bad) luck will play a part at some point I suspect)
2. the picks will be under 1.1 odds - hopefully in around 20 wins time we'll see a doubling of initial bank
3. the picks will mainly be from football and often from the goals market (since around 94% of football games have at least 1 goal, that seems to be the place to look for my bets). There may be the odd horse racing pick, but these will likely be on the lines of a clear favourite in the place market
4. I will probably pick more than 1 bet per day and hope to double up within a few days rather than weeks
Input invited.