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Doubling my bank in 2 weeks ?

paulb164

Colt
Just sifting through some of the slightly older threads on here, and came across the 'Betting a MASSIVE amount on a sure thing...' one. After reading it, it made me think about whether it could be made to work somehow. It can be dangerous to bet on individual cases based on the 'surely can't lose this' mentality... but surely some statistical analysis coupled with a decent staking and compound betting plan might make it a viable option ?

In mathematical theory, 15 winning bets at odds of 1.05 in a row would actually double your bank if you bet the whole bank after each winning bet (including minus the 5% commission if betting on exchanges like Betfair). Only 8 consecutive winning bets at 1.1 has the same outcome... so how difficult can it be ? :crazy::crazy::crazy:


So... I am going to give it a go to see just how practical or feasible doing this can be. I am going to follow these rules;
1. I will be starting with a £100 bank, and each bet will be 50% of the bank - I feel I need to protect the bank at least a little bit. After all, even a 1.05 odds event still has a small chance of losing ! The idea is to see if I can reduce that chance to zero with the right picks (though (bad) luck will play a part at some point I suspect)
2. the picks will be under 1.1 odds - hopefully in around 20 wins time we'll see a doubling of initial bank
3. the picks will mainly be from football and often from the goals market (since around 94% of football games have at least 1 goal, that seems to be the place to look for my bets). There may be the odd horse racing pick, but these will likely be on the lines of a clear favourite in the place market
4. I will probably pick more than 1 bet per day and hope to double up within a few days rather than weeks

Input invited.
 
All bets will be advised at BF odds at time of posting, so here are my first choices;

22/6/2019 18:00; Iceland Urvalsdeild - Akranes v HK Kopavogs; over 0.5 goals @ 1.07

22/6/2019 20:00; Copa America - Peru v Brasil; over 0.5 goals @ 1.07
 
All bets will be advised at BF odds at time of posting, so here are my first choices;

22/6/2019 18:00; Iceland Urvalsdeild - Akranes v HK Kopavogs; over 0.5 goals @ 1.07

22/6/2019 20:00; Copa America - Peru v Brasil; over 0.5 goals @ 1.07
Anything is worth a trial run. See how it goes.

Good luck!
 
Tomorrow's (Sunday) games below... there are 2 games on at the same time, so split the pot between the 2. Also, too early to advise BF prices, but put these on if they either start of move in-play to no less than 1.05;

23/06/2019 01:00USA MLS - Chicago Fire v Real Salt Lakeover 0.5 goals
23/06/2019 17:00Norway Eliteserien - Kristiansund v Stabaekover 0.5 goals
23/06/2019 17:00Norway 1st - Sogndal v Skeidover 0.5 goals
 
Another qualifier for tomorrow...

23/06/2019 11:00Japan J-League - Vengalta Sendai v FC TokyoUnder 2.5 goals 1st half
 
Nice to wake up this morning to my third bet coming in - 3 for 3 now.

Slight concern with the next bet (J-League game at 11am) - odds are currently 1.11 on BF and my rule was for all bets to be under 1.1. As all good bettors know, step outside of any working plan and your betting bank soon starts dropping. I'll keep it in on this occasion for this exercise.

Also set up a spreadsheet which calculates the investment amounts as a third, half and all in for each bet. I thought if I do start doing bets that breach the under 1.1 rule, then I ought to restrict the losses (if there are any) by reducing the bet amount - time will tell which staking plan is the most effective.
 
Watching the J-league game - 30 mins into the 1st half and still goalless. Odds dropped to 1.01 - normally I would green up at this point, but with only 15 mins to go, will there be a goal (or more importantly, 3 goals) ? A quick check on the game stats show zero shots on goal for both sides, so I will let it play out.
 
Recap for the rest of the day with a couple of additional qualifiers;

23/06/2019 16:30Sweden Superettan - Brommapojkarna vs Orgryteover 0.5 goals
23/06/2019 16:30Norway Eliteserien - Brann v Lillestromover 0.5 goals
23/06/2019 17:00Norway Eliteserien - Kristiansund v Stabaekover 0.5 goals
23/06/2019 17:00Norway 1st - Sogndal v Skeidover 0.5 goals
23/06/2019 22:30USA MLS - Columbus Crew vs Sporting KCover 0.5 goals

Clearly there may be issues with placing the right amount of stakes for some of these if the 2 games at 16:30 don't get their goals before the start of the games at 17:00 - if that is the case, then I would bet on the markets still as soon as winning funds from the first games go back in the pot - the games are selected on their chances of getting goals just as much as using the starting odds as an indicator so if the odds have raised in the time that funds free up, then that is a bonus for the plan.
 
Sorry - got one of my times mixed up... and also found another qualifier ! See below for correct games and times...

23/06/2019 16:30Sweden Superettan - Brommapojkarna vs Orgryteover 0.5 goals
23/06/2019 17:00Norway Eliteserien - Kristiansund v Stabaekover 0.5 goals
23/06/2019 17:00Norway 1st - Sogndal v Skeidover 0.5 goals
23/06/2019 19:00Norway Eliteserien - Brann v Lillestromover 0.5 goals
23/06/2019 20:00Qatar v Argentinaover 0.5 goals
23/06/2019 22:30USA MLS - Columbus Crew vs Sporting KCover 0.5 goals

That at least sorts the betting congestion problem out !
 
well, all winners except for the 1st game which ended in a goalless draw. To tell the truth, I don't like to bet on eventualities that rely on the away team to perform - I am a big fan of home advantage, or sometimes an even competition if it's the right game. All the other games on my list (other than the Copa America game, which had no home advantage) relied on the home team primarily performing. This aspect will govern my picks in future.

Had I reinvested all the pot in the following bets, it would now be empty. So it seems that either 50% or even 33% of the pot seems a better amount to bet with. Monday being a typical off-season Monday, there was little to bet on, but I did identify 1 game which played earlier, and won handsomely;

24/06/2019 18:00Sweden Superettan - Norrby v Syrianskaover 0.5 goals

Current pot with 33% reinvestment - £81.97
Current pot with 50% reinvestment - £67.76
 
paulb164 paulb164 I have tried this many times get so far and it falls down like a pack of cards. The last time i tried it Liverpool vs Swansea a few years back cost me dearly ended 0-0 AT the time Liverpool were a goal machine.
 
it's a bit of fun at the end of the day - I'm looking anyway for other bets so can fit this in at the same time. I am only paper-testing this - it's more a test to see if I can pick the right games for this kind of exercise. I reckon after three (bad) strikes, I will get the message and admit defeat !
 
Another quiet Tuesday - 3 selections for the day;

25/06/2019 16:30Finland Ykkonen - Musan Salama v TPV TampereUnder 2.5 goals 1st half
25/06/2019 18:00Sweden Allsvenskan - AIK v Norrkoepingover 0.5 goals
25/06/2019 18:00Sweden Superettan - Dalkurd v Vaesteraasover 0.5 goals

the first game is currently odds of 1.11, but will run with it anyway as it qualifies with the selection process and I need to recoup some losses
 
Hi paulb164 paulb164 Best of luck with this - hope you recover the loss - three in the bag today.
My football betting is generally restricted to the Premiership and Championship as I not familiar with much else (except, the Women's World Cup - the Lionesses play a better game than the men for sure !!)
 
Dire Wednesday for betting, so had to fall back on some horse racing to add to the plan....

26/06/2019 14:0014:00 Carlisle - Asmundplace
26/06/2019 14:4014:40 Ffos Las - Longhouse Saleplace
27/06/2019 00:30USA MLS - Montreal Impact v Portland Timbersover 0.5 goals
27/06/2019 02:00USA MLS - FC Dallas v Vancouver Whitecapsover 0.5 goals
27/06/2019 03:30USA MLS - San Jose Earthquakes v Houston Dynamoover 0.5 goals

Yesterday's winning bets have put the pot levels to within £10 of the starting pot with using 33% stakes... another good day may return the pot level to the original starting levels ?
 
Nice to see another clean sweep; 5 from 5... just a couple of quid short of my starting pot now if using 33% stakes, and probably more interestingly 14 winning bets in a row since the single loss a few days ago. Remove that Swedish game that I wouldn't normally bet on in my other plans, and I would have tripled my original pot if I reinvested 100% ! And in within 4 days.
It's kinda pleasing to see that it can be done... maybe I should market it as a plan ? :rofl:
 
Football qualifiers for Friday... not seeing the Belarus game listed on BF so that may not get placed;

28/06/2019 17:00Sweden Allsvenskan - Oerebro v Helsingborgover 0.5 goals
28/06/2019 16:45Belarus Premier - Torpedo Minsk v Neman GrodnoUnder 2.5 goals 1st half

Possible horse racing picks to add in the morning.
 
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