• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR

Double Dutch

pawras

Gelding
I've had a dabble with dutching and variations of based on one my top 4 rated wins 80+% of the time, but it wasn't easy keeping the margin high enough to counter the losers such as outsiders winning.
 

mick

Sire
Dutching does not appeal to myself because i do not like the idea that some of my stake will be lost before the traps open, but it is worth keeping in mind that some of the most successful long term backers have and do work this way, so best of for a profitable thread Sean Sean . :)
 

footysystems

Gelding
If you look at that blog I linked it's worth reading and it's a long read. But the focus is on race type. The data I know was run through the old massey software many years ago and has stood the test of time. I personally know the chap that operates this and he makes a living from this. The bets are actual in the spreadsheets snippits on the blog.
 

markfinn

Sire
Thought i would give dutching a go , have tried it in the past with some success but never really kept it up .. the way i used to do it is pick a couple of races , sometimes 3/4 sometimes just the one and stop at a winner , the way i work it is say i want to win £20 per day so i would work the stakes out for the 2 horses , and bet accordingly , if one of em won all well and good , if not , i would obviously want the £20 + the stake outlay back .. like i say it worked okay in the past and i have tried it over the past couple of days , first day it won in the second race and yesterday it won in the first race so hopefully it can continue in that vein

If anyone has any better ideas on how to bet them feel free to let me know , cheers :handgestures-thumbup:
Hi Sean done it all of my punting life was told in my early days to never have only one in the race - best advice that I have ever had - will keep you in profit and in the game. I have tried all the various methods and to be honest level equal staking is best . I have to go now but will be around later.
 

markfinn

Sire
If you take the view as I do - that stake retention or stake return should be the whole idea and min basis of punting then not to Dutch is a no brainer - coverage of the card is where the real pros of this game ( the bookmakers ) ply their trade and make their living - so it makes sense that punters where possible should emulate that activity.

In reality covering more than two in general run of the mill races will not return a worthwhile profit, whilst the bare return of stake is always nice it only pays the same as a no bet, so at my SR min price of 11/4 and if can back both at that I am slightly ahead should one win - if I cannot get it walk away.

For my records - I use the race as the bet count, 1 race 1 bet - I split my race stake over the the number of horses staked and count that as one bet.

I use level staking, have tried all sorts of convoluted methods and also place betting , but to be honest level staking is the best and it also rules taking a stance and making the most heavily backed (which would have to the shortest odds) as mental fav and perhaps influencing the bet. Yes sometime when the long outsider goes in you think - Shit - not enough on that one - but in reality - over a year every thing pans out.

That's it really Dutch to level stakes always trying to get the stake plus min 30% profit back - if I could do it every day - I would more than happy.

I tend to stagger my bets on Betfair now so the outcome is not always clear cut, but the principles are the same and that's what I generally work to.
 
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pawras

Gelding
I must admit after doing chunks of data analysis via sql and 'what-if' type spreadsheets I've been gradually moving towards using the bookies own approach against them and having money on more than one, how many depends on the card and my opinions on it plus the odds available.
 

pawras

Gelding
I think something that helped influence me was some documentary I was watching where a bookie was showing his live book and his different liabilities and levels of profit on different runners according to the money he was willing to take on them and his opinions re some.
Nothing I hadn't read about before but poss cos it was a more live visual thing it made me think about it a bit more cos I rate every runner in the race in the same conistent manner and have oodles of stats re my 1st , 2nd, 3rd , 4th choices etc and how they perform on avg and if they're at different odds ranges in the market.

I wouldn't say I have it nailed down but it's been a good help and I've learned quite a bit doing live trials.
 
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Sean

Colt
Thursday 14th January

12.50 Bangor - Miss Amelia** / Go As You Please
1.30 Fontwell - Gustavian** / Bard Of Brittany
3.00 Fontwell - Belle De Manech** / Allavina
8.00 Chelmsford - Arij / No Nay Bella**
 

pawras

Gelding
Thursday 14th January

12.50 Bangor - Miss Amelia** / Go As You Please
1.30 Fontwell - Gustavian** / Bard Of Brittany
3.00 Fontwell - Belle De Manech** / Allavina
8.00 Chelmsford - Arij / No Nay Bella**

Did you get in early on Belle De Manech? It's dropped quite a bit in price from early yesterday evening down to evens. The non runner gives it a 10p rule 4 but I'm still getting 7/4 on it.

This highlights the value of something I've been doing, for 100s of winning bets so far I have tracked the prices at betfair early ,bsp , isp , early bookie price and actual overall price achieved. And it has shown conclusively what early results had indicated, that knowing how the market typically behaves at the different prices points for your bets can make a big difference to your overall profit.
I.e. now I know, on avg, which ones I should be getting in early and which ones I should leave to near the off or at bsp.
 
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footysystems

Gelding
I found this page interesting
pawras pawras yes well worth the read on how a pro actually makes his living from dutching horses i can vouch that this guy has done this since 2010. Its long winded but show what actually can be done.... Lot of talk about depth of the market near the off which is vital here IMO if your going to make it pay. Along with race type I am actually testing something at the minute using dutching first half Home win and under 0.5 goals first half very interesting indeed using my inplay stats.
 

mick

Sire
pawras pawras your above an interesting read. Once i have identified a horse of serious interest which starts off the 4 day decs and then confirmed at the 48 hr stage i set a minimum value price but also spend time attempting to anticipate what might occur in the market Re the other runners. Even if you can secure bog there is still a right and wrong time to do so. Currently i find the markets increasingly volatile and less predictable but i am still getting this right on balance which remains the only worthwhile benchmark.
 

pawras

Gelding
pawras pawras your above an interesting read. Once i have identified a horse of serious interest which starts off the 4 day decs and then confirmed at the 48 hr stage i set a minimum value price but also spend time attempting to anticipate what might occur in the market Re the other runners. Even if you can secure bog there is still a right and wrong time to do so. Currently i find the markets increasingly volatile and less predictable but i am still getting this right on balance which remains the only worthwhile benchmark.

I find the markets for anything >= 5/1 a different kettle of fish to the top end i.e. very unpredictable as a rule
 

pawras

Gelding
pawras pawras , no i didnt take the early price

Doesn't matter so much for that one cos it's now drifted back out to 6/4 but Allavina has shortened up from 5/2 to more like 11/8 and is now fav. But things could change again by the off. Will be interesting to see if the market is right in the end.
 
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