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Does physical weight carried matter?

trecelyn

Yearling
I see a lot about a horses OR but what about the weight actually carried? Is there a correlation of the two or are they totally different scenarios. I see tipsters, journalists and the like say such a horse has never won off this mark before but what if they never have carried the weight before?

Taking this a stage further and actually looking at a race I like to look at class 3 all aged handicaps and above only 1 race qualifies tomorrow Thirsk 1.40. Using HRB the top 3 have never won carrying such a high weight. That leaves me with 4, of these only looks to have a progressive profile, by that I mean the potential to be better than they are actually rated at the moment and that is Golden Pass currently available at 6/1.

it’s a pretty simplistic view to take but I would be interested to know if anybody has opinions on weight carried
 

mick

Sire
trecelyn trecelyn while the BHA set the OR the trainer decides the weight and to answer your thread title question then imo yes it does matter and or can do. When i am profiling a possible bet under a big weight then seeking evidence of past relevant weight carrying ability plays an important part in making the final call, and when there is none then most often i will swerve the bet regardless of my positive rating.
 
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OnTheNod

Gelding
I think it matters as well i use to back some horses high in the weights if they had won before with that weight, in the class and the speed was good. Also the race readings can help i use to use some from two sources, say if easily or finished fast, ran on well etc then maybe they could manage a few extra pounds, but i never went much above 9 stone on the flat which i only bet on.
 

markfinn

Sire
Your other points about weight carrying potential and future improvement - 5 are hardly tested - 1 maybe and the form for The Trader is exposed


1618601830938.png

so yes - especially considering the ages
 

Chesham

Sire
Check out Claiming races where a Trainer allocates the weight his horse will carry. ????

6B553923-8D6F-4BC7-8ECE-449C5285D864.jpeg
now combine the OR and weight , remembering that the Trainer could have chosen a much lower weight, but has to think about the claiming cost will be cheaper the less weight he allocates to the horse

8EA99E8A-58E9-4CA2-A77B-6ADD14B4E936.jpeg
The class horse can give weight , worth remebering
 
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kralken

Filly
On some horses 1lb extra is a struggle but i think if a horse is progressive then possibly weight plus class will eventually stop it
 
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pawras

Gelding
The average weight of a race horse is about 1000 lbs , 3 lb represents an extra 0.3% in weight. Is that even a big shit for one of them?

On this subject poss more than any other in horse racing everyone has their own anecdotal viewpoints and choose what they want to believe from whatever source.

However for me a fundamental question is does the impact of weight change according to distance and going? The data analysis I did yonks ago indicated that it does but I'm not claiming it to be a definitive standpoint.
 

OnTheNod

Gelding
The average weight of a race horse is about 1000 lbs , 3 lb represents an extra 0.3% in weight. Is that even a big shit for one of them?

On this subject poss more than any other in horse racing everyone has their own anecdotal viewpoints and choose what they want to believe from whatever source.

However for me a fundamental question is does the impact of weight change according to distance and going? The data analysis I did yonks ago indicated that it does but I'm not claiming it to be a definitive standpoint.

It is like any science of events so many factors concerned so his hard to pin down things exact, all i know from experience from mainly sprint races i used, a few pounds can make a difference of course it is not absolute but a fair tendency i found their in many cases.
 
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pete

Dam
I wonder if it is the physical weight making the difference or the perception of the OR or the weight that the trainer has.

It is strange how ... Time and time again, an older horse has to get down to it's last winning mark before it is competitive again.

How much of that is the trainer being aware of the OR and allowing a jockey to run with the breaks off once at an acceptable level. And how much is the physical weight actually slowing a horse down ...

Too many moving parts I think.

Weight is something that I did not really consider before moving out here 20 years ago. When I got here, I realized that there was no such thing as a handicap race in the usa. The "handicap" is the level of horse that you race against.

You are in a race with a bunch of $3000 claimers, it will be an easier race than if you are entered up in a race with $5000 claimers.

Thre are often "penalties" for winners within a specified timeframe or for horses that are certain ages, but there is not really an "official rating" as such

Once I got back into uk racing I noticed that not only was the class of horse that you are racing against determining a chance, but also the actual weight allocated to your horse too.

Personally I hold the opinion that the ability of the horses that you are up against makes more of a difference than the physical weight you carry, certainly in the flat, low class, shorter distance races that I tend to gravitate towards.

Having said all that, I'd always rather have a capable 7lb claimer on one of mine than an average no-claim run of the mill jockey any day of the week.

*Shrug*
 

trecelyn

Yearling
Been waiting for another suitable race to try out my thinking after Golden Pass got this off to a good start when winning . The race I have chosen is Epsom 3.55, I’m still looking for a selection that has proven it can carry the weight and has a progressive profile. The selection is going to be Valyrian Steel currently available at 9/4
 

mick

Sire
One of my ( unproven ) theories is that sometimes even the most genuine of horses when the pressure is applied under a big weight will take the " all right enough " type attitude and once those mental brakes go on then even the best jockeys will find it difficult to beat this . pete pete first line in his above post also has plenty of relevance.

Back in the day when more punters started to become aware of the Class aspect an intended gaming run was most often signaled and achieved by running above class under a low weight and this still happens, but in recent times i see an increase in running below class with a big weight being used and this contrarian MO can put pts on the price for the future planned brakes off run.

The other aspect worth pondering is the race small print because a horse with OR 70 can contest a 0-70 under 9-7 : 9-10 : 10-0 and if i was placing one for a punt under a weight i know which my preference would be. Indeed the 9-7 option with a decent ( and heavier apprentice ) on top should in theory be a peaches and cream combo.

It was probably 15 yrs back when i first noticed some UK pundits advocating the ignore weight theory and i suspect they nicked this from the respected American writer Bayer ( who i am told has since changed his mind ). Whatever and each to there own but it was never an idea which i felt able to buy into.
 

trecelyn

Yearling
Newmarket 1.50 Mascat
Fits the bill of the type of horse I’m looking for, yet to win a handicap but has carried this physical weight before and at odds of 7/1 is a bet for me today
 
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