• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a 20% discount on Inform Racing.
    Simply enter the coupon code ukbettingform when subscribing here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Inform Racing so help is always available if needed.
    Best Wishes
    AR
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR
  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Dave's dongle system

dave58

Administrator
Copied over - it seems to be holding it's own (oooh er, missus !!) - don't know if anyone wants to have a play around with it
It's not going to be pulling up any trees as it is, but might be a starting point for a decent system ?

Dave's Dongle System
« Thread Started on Oct 1, 2012, 2:23pm »
Hi guys - just thought we could do with a system or two here, so I'll start with this one.

Ark and myself checked results back to 2003 and it showed pretty steady year-on-year profits - nothing world-shattering, about 8 - 10% POI I think, with a strike-rate of 25-30% win and 50-ish place, so ideal for split-staking.

Rules:

1) Claiming and selling stakes races (all codes)
2) Top weight (including joint top)
3) Must be a male in a mixed-sex race
4) Top 3 in betting.

That's it ! - feel free to play around with it - someone may well come up with a tweak or 2 !

Good luck all

Dave
 

dave58

Administrator
Could well do, Tom - problem is the small number of results makes it a bit difficult to see what's a true trend and what's just statistical 'noise'
 

Celticshadow

Yearling
Hi Dave

I have run the above and it appears a perrenial loser to me albeit to industry SP and not the machine. May I ask for clarification where your goodself and Ark derived the figures from as it could well be me just being silly and missing the obvious. The SR percentages look similar but struggling to see any year on year profit?

Kind Regards

Paul
 

dave58

Administrator
Hi Paul - no you're not missing anything - I've quoted to BFSP - sorry if I didn't make that clear in the original post .

Here's what I got from Massey

Bets Wins Win Strike Rate Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds
All Selections 4001 1100 27.5% 107.6%


Results broken down by Year

Bets Wins Win Strike Rate Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds
2004 532 123 23.1% 96.6%
2005 555 146 26.3% 116.9%
2006 499 122 24.4% 107.6%
2007 545 152 27.9% 105.4%
2008 641 193 30.1% 109.6%
2009 628 188 29.9% 115.1%
2010 497 144 29.0% 102.7%
2011 104 32 30.8% 90.7%

I do remember there seems to be some discrepancy between massey. proform and others - I think between myself and Ark we came up with that maybe some include Irish races and others don't ?

As I said, it's not much as it is, but could be worth looking into further





As you correctly state, to ISP it does show a loss, as below

Bets Wins Win Strike Rate Win %Return at SP Placed (inc wins) Place Strike Rate Each-Way %Return at SP
All Selections 4001 1100 27.5% 98.6% 2278 56.9% 96.6%


Results broken down by Year

Bets Wins Win Strike Rate Win %Return at SP Placed (inc wins) Place Strike Rate Each-Way %Return at SP
2004 532 123 23.1% 89.3% 290 54.5% 92.0%
2005 555 146 26.3% 107.4% 329 59.3% 104.5%
2006 499 122 24.4% 98.7% 252 50.5% 91.9%
2007 545 152 27.9% 96.9% 312 57.2% 94.0%
2008 641 193 30.1% 100.2% 371 57.9% 97.7%
2009 628 188 29.9% 103.6% 358 57.0% 98.2%
2010 497 144 29.0% 94.7% 306 61.6% 97.3%
2011 104 32 30.8% 86.3% 60 57.7% 92.7%


Hope that helps - again sorry for any confusion, it's just that I tend to quote all my stuff to BFSP , as you need every edge going in this game :)

Dave
 

Celticshadow

Yearling
Hi Dave

Thanks for replying, I have ran it again to BFSP and do get a profit but at around 4.5% and it would appear that the bird has flown as the majority of profit seems to occur in the earlier years. When this happens I tend to go against the crowd and look for the opposite of obvious trends, ie instead of say first three in the market look to five and above etc. I think the descrepancy in the Massey BF figs is/was due to his estimation rather than actual. However that said it is as you say what it is, thus pick it up and do the less obvious with it and one may just be surprised. Thanks again Dave and apologies if I appear/ed over critical but our confusion arose via industry and BFSP.

Kind Regards

Paul
 

dave58

Administrator
Celticshadow said:
Hi Dave

Thanks for replying, I have ran it again to BFSP and do get a profit but at around 4.5% and it would appear that the bird has flown as the majority of profit seems to occur in the earlier years When this happens I tend to go against the crowd and look for the opposite of obvious trends, ie instead of say first three in the market look to five and above etc.

. However that said it is as you say what it is, thus pick it up and do the less obvious with it and one may just be surprised. Thanks again Dave and apologies if I appear/ed over critical but our confusion arose via industry and BFSP.

Kind Regards

Paul


Hi Paul

Constructive criticism is fine, so not a problem there - some excellent points made :)

Many thanks for your input - as you say, try a few unusual things and you may come up with something good.

All the best

Dave
 
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