• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
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    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
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    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
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DAILY TRIXIE

T The Equaliser Please don't take anything I say as criticism - I only want to help and develop other peoples knowledge, and my own, in the betting field.
I, for one, would love to be able to write essays on why I feel a horse may or may not win. I just don't have the time to follow horse racing in-depth at the moment and have to revert to systems for my selections - perhaps one day when 'I'm retired' :D - I know I would be good at it.
But I do know bookies/markets/odds/probabilities......and a bit of a spreadsheet geek.

So, with that in mind.....you say you are using Betfair Sportsbook? The prices you quote alongside your selections - are these the prices you have taken when placing your bet?
Then, unless you have been told otherwise by BS you will be getting BOG (Best Odds Guaranteed) - unlike me :(

So using Weds. Trixie as an example........ 3.40 Font (5) Bermeo 3/1, 4.30 Yar (9) Oud Metha Bridge 9/2

Bermeo had an SP of 5/1...........you would have got that price.
Oud Metha Bridge had an SP of 3/1.......you would have kept the 9/2 (if you had taken it, of course, at the time of placing your bet).

Makes a big difference to your return and of course if you win often the bookies will soon take away your BOG privilege.

Also, the 'cash out' price that bookies offer will be the return assuming that the remaining selections are 'non-runners' ie. the treble bet is classed as a double - the 2 doubles become singles etc... Don't quote me on that (I'm not 100% sure) but that's how the maths adds up for me.

One other thing, the £2 minimum you say need to have on Betfair SP is for singles.
If do multiplies (ie. Trixies) the minimum is for the TOTAL bet outlay - so you can do 4 x 50p if you want.
I hope that helps for the future when the bookies 'shut you down' for winning too much !! ;)

PS. If you are speaking to a member directly put an @ in front of their name like retriever retriever - then they will get an alert of your post (see the little bell symbol top right).
retriever retriever Very many thanks for your comments; I hope the day comes soon so that you can retire and indulge in your hobby.

I copied this off Betfair :

BETFAIR SPORTSBOOK BEST ODDS GUARANTEED 14.6.19
  • ‘Best Odds Guaranteed’ is offered on UK and Irish horse race winner markets and selected UK and Irish greyhound race winner markets.
  • Best Odds Guaranteed applies to any price taken on singles and multiples on the day of event race and applies to race winner markets only (win and each way). ‘Best Odds Guaranteed’ is not available on ante-post markets.
  • Where ‘Best Odds Guaranteed’ is offered, bets will be settled at the Industry Starting Price (“SP”) if the SP is bigger than the price taken by the customer when they place their bet on the Betfair Sportsbook. For example, if the price taken on the Betfair Sportsbook is 3/1 and the SP is 4/1, we will pay out at the bigger price of 4/1.
  • All races that are offering Best Odds Guaranteed are clearly labelled on the racecard.
  • In the event of a Tattersalls Rule 4 deduction applying to a price taken, we will pay at the bigger odds after the Tattersalls Rule 4 deduction has been made to the price taken.
  • Where no SP is returned, the last fixed odds price offered on the Betfair Sportsbook before the commencement of the race will be taken as the SP.
  • Best Odds Guaranteed only applies to bets placed on the Betfair Sportsbook.
  • Betfair reserves the right to withdraw the ‘Best Odds Guaranteed’ promotion at any time.
  • The maximum Best Odds Guaranteed payout in any day is £50,000.
  • Bets placed with Each Way Edge are not eligible for Best Odds Guaranteed.
It looks as though I get the BOG on my multiple bets, however, I only place the Trixie bet and do not back the singles; I do quote the singles price on offer at the time of placing my bet. I think I must get the BOG on these as my potential profit went up from the original quote when I got the double up.

I think that you are right about the way in which the multiples would have worked in teh event of a non-runner. This means that I did very well when I cashed out of my Trixie bet.

Yes, you are right about the Betfair minimum stake being £2 in total and that I could place a 50p Trixie under Betfair BSP multiples; I tested it out so as to prove it.

Not too sure if I am better off puting my bets through Sportsbook or using Betfair multiples BSP multiples? I think that I will stick with Sportsbook for now though.

Don't know why you can't get BOG on your bets; you could join Betfair?

Have a lovely weekend.

I have drawn a blank today so will be back tomorrow for anothe crack
 

retriever

Gelding
You'd be better off will SportsBook (BOG) at the moment at the price range you're betting.
BFSP is best at higher odds.....see JamesSmith's winner in the Tipping Comp today.....he got 35/1 for Paddys Motorbike (W16/1).

When I mentioned singles, I was only saying that the doubles become 'singles' in the event of non-runners.

Don't know why you can't get BOG on your bets; you could join Betfair?
Like most on here, the bookies (or I like Mick's description 'the fiddlers') take away your BOG privileges (or restrict you to small stakes) if you dare win a few quid from them. And you don't have to win big with them either. They share information on you, place illegal cookies on your computer to track you, know when you are using Odds Comparison sites, etc.
I've used and lost Betfair SportsBook, Corals, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Skybet, StanleyBet, William Hill, TotalBet, JenningsBet, Boylesports, StanJames/BetDirect, Blue Square, SportingOdds....and probably a few more I can't recall. Oddly enough, I can still get BOG with PP and Bet365, but I am saving them for a rainy day. I've all but given up with them....use the Tote and Betfair exchange now.

You'll be okay betting £1 Trixies (classed as 'Mug betting')......unless you start knocking them in ten to the dozen :D
 
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TODAY’S TRIXIE SELECTIONS (Two today)

First Trixie
3.15 San (3) Greenside 5/1, 5.30 Chest (5) Tor 11/4 and 5.35 Sand ((6) Just Wait 3/1 = £4 staked and potential return £151.48.
Reasons for selections:
Greenside C&D winner, in good form and is OK on soft going. Tor was runner up in the race last year and is running well so far this term, Just Wait a tough Mark Johnson runner who is expected to run a big race.

Second Trixie(all at York) couldn’t resist it for a £2 bet
2.25 Yk (8) Aljady 11/2, 4.40 YK (1) Markazy 4/1, and 5.15 YK (6) John Kirkup 13/2 = £2 staked with a potential return of £181.24
Reason for selections
Aljady has been running well and hopefully won’t come second again, Markazi should run well and hopefully there will not be much further rain and John Kirkup is in form so I hope will strike while the iron is hot. I notice a market move for number (20) Constant and, although it has winning form on soft ground it has not been running that well lately.

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE
No winners yesterday; a 3rd, a 4th and an 8th

Original Bank £500 add £33.19 = £533.19 Balance C/Fwd. Equals 6.6 % ROI

Have a good day’ I know I will
 
NO TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY

I just cannot find enough selections at the kind of prices that I prefer for my Trixies today. The only one that I found of interest was 5.0 Doncaster (9) Baristi Dancer which was trading at around 4.9 last night on Betfair and is now trading at 6.8!
Not so sure about tomorrow as I have to take my car in for a lengthy service early tomorrow morning. I am looking forward to the Royal Ascot meeting starting on Tuesday.

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE
No luck with both my Trixies yesterday; I was back to watch some of the races in the afternoon and struggled to get £0.89 with my back to lay efforts which are not recorded for my Trixie selection purposes.

Original Bank £500 add £27.19 = £527.19 Balance C/Fwd. Equals 5.4 % ROI
 
My preference is the Patent Each way bet (including the singles) I focus on lower class races with an even field and never pick races where the favourite is less than 5/1 and I tend to pick the best mid-odds horses between approx 6 to 10/1 look at various stats and select the best horses from that range of odds.
Recently I had all 3 winners doing this and yes you get many a day when you win nothing or next to nothing but i like the amount of cover you get placing these bets . I find it's an inexpensive way to bet. Most days I get a return of some kind and now and again you may hit lucky with 3 winners as I have achieved once out of about 25 attempts.
canaryfan69 canaryfan69 Hi there, sorry not to reply earlier

It seems to me that you are risking 14 points on patent each time you take the plunge

Whilst retriever retriever has pointed out that my Trixie bets are regarded by the bookies as "mug" bets I truly love the way in which the returns rack up when a double and treble occur. I am reminded of ALbert Einstein sayingthat compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world.

I do not credit myself with having a strong belief that I get myself selections spot on, therefore I would rather use the 14 points to place 3.5 Trixies, usually on different days. Or, over two sequences of your bets I could place 7 Trixies for 28 points. So it's a bit like pattern bombing to achieve my outcome.

If I were to have a very strong feeling about my selections and place the equaivalent of a Patent bet I would either place double or treble the stakes on the singles. And if I did that then me being me I would require something like odds of 5.3 on doubled up stakes or 4.6 on trebled stakes = 10 and 13 points outlay respectively so as to break even should one selection win.

I do choose higher grade races (Class 5) being an absolute minimum (I have to accept this on ordinary week days) though I would prefer class 4.

The two aspects of your strategy that I do like is firstly that you are seeking good odds for you bets and secondly, and this is most important, your tenacity to keep going even when the losing sequences rack up. So many people just give up so easily and don't have the patience to see their strategies play out properly.

It will be interesting to see how well you perforn over a period of time with your approach as opposed to my pattern bombing approach.

Very best of luck and keep me posted.
 

canaryfan69

Yearling
canaryfan69 canaryfan69 Hi there, sorry not to reply earlier

It seems to me that you are risking 14 points on patent each time you take the plunge

Whilst retriever retriever has pointed out that my Trixie bets are regarded by the bookies as "mug" bets I truly love the way in which the returns rack up when a double and treble occur. I am reminded of ALbert Einstein sayingthat compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world.

I do not credit myself with having a strong belief that I get myself selections spot on, therefore I would rather use the 14 points to place 3.5 Trixies, usually on different days. Or, over two sequences of your bets I could place 7 Trixies for 28 points. So it's a bit like pattern bombing to achieve my outcome.

If I were to have a very strong feeling about my selections and place the equaivalent of a Patent bet I would either place double or treble the stakes on the singles. And if I did that then me being me I would require something like odds of 5.3 on doubled up stakes or 4.6 on trebled stakes = 10 and 13 points outlay respectively so as to break even should one selection win.

I do choose higher grade races (Class 5) being an absolute minimum (I have to accept this on ordinary week days) though I would prefer class 4.

The two aspects of your strategy that I do like is firstly that you are seeking good odds for you bets and secondly, and this is most important, your tenacity to keep going even when the losing sequences rack up. So many people just give up so easily and don't have the patience to see their strategies play out properly.

It will be interesting to see how well you perforn over a period of time with your approach as opposed to my pattern bombing approach.

Very best of luck and keep me posted.
Thanks for your feedback . I see where you are coming from with your strategy . Yes my strategy so far has a poor success rate. I bet for fun primarily and don't expect to win often . I enjoy looking up and studying the horses who I select . I like to have a lot of cover on my bets as I am by no means an expert. Maybe if I get more success I will bet more and try other strategies in the future.
 

retriever

Gelding
I do choose higher grade races (Class 5) being an absolute minimum (I have to accept this on ordinary weekdays) though I would prefer class 4
I see where we may have had confusion before.......I class lower Class racing as Class 4, 5 and 6 :lolsign:

and never pick races where the favourite is less than 5/1
Hi canaryfan69 canaryfan69 I would imagine the races you were looking at if the Fav. is around 5/1 would have a fair number of runners (probably 12 or more) and difficult sprints to boot too......
Have you considered looking at 8-9 runner races (if you are backing e/w) were the Fav. is around 2/1 and you focus your attention on the 3rd or 4th in the market (5/1-8/1)....
 

canaryfan69

Yearling
I see where we may have had confusion before.......I class lower Class racing as Class 4, 5 and 6 :lolsign:


Hi canaryfan69 canaryfan69 I would imagine the races you were looking at if the Fav. is around 5/1 would have a fair number of runners (probably 12 or more) and difficult sprints to boot too......
Have you considered looking at 8-9 runner races (if you are backing e/w) were the Fav. is around 2/1 and you focus your attention on the 3rd or 4th in the market (5/1-8/1)....
In my naivety Iv'e never really looked at the size of the field . Definitely something I will be looking at more.
 
TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY
3.30 Carl (10) Beverley Bullet 7/2, 3.45 Catt (7) John Clare 4/1, 7.10 Win (10) Sir Roderick (7/2) = £4 stake for potential return of £166.48.

Reasons for selections:

Beverley Bullet is a course winner in fine form acts on the going and is down 2lbs (There is money for Redarna courtesy of ATR and Oddschecker (always the same selections)

John Clare flopped last time but I am hoping that Catterick will suit his style of running. Kuwait Station is strong in the market but who knows if he will cope with the underfoot conditions.

Sir Roderick is a CD winner running well and is OK on this going. I am hoping that its price won’t get smashed but hey, I get BOG on Sportsbook don’t I?

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

No Trixie yesterday so the betting bank balance remains the same.

Original Bank £500 add £27.19 = £527.19 Balance C/Fwd. Equals 5.4 % ROI
 
TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY (two today)

First 2.30 Asc (9) Mustashry 11/2, , 5.0 Asc (8) Coeur De Lion 7/1, 5.35 Asc (5) Addeyb 13/2 = £4 stake with potential return £550. 72
Reasons for selections:

Mustashry. All it has to do is repeat its last performance. Pundits are quoting the going as a reason to negate its chances. I think it will be alright on the straight mile and the race is quite early so hopefully no downpurs.

Coeur De Lion is up 5lbs and is running well; hope the rain comes for it

Addeyb Also needs the rain to come so fingers crossed


Second: 2.55 Stra (3) Old Harry Rocks 9/2, 4.35 Thirsk (1) Dragons Voice 11/4, 5.20 Stra (1) Our Jerry 3/1 = £2 staked and potential return of £70.06

Got a feeling I should have had £1 on this and 50p on the first!

Reasons for selections

Old Harry Rocks, running well but the market isn’t strong for it

Dragons Voice in excellent form so I am hoping for a big run

Our Jerry another well thought of Irish raider; it has been penalised with a high mark but I hope its class will see it through

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE
No winners yesterday
Original Bank £500 add £23.19 = £523.19 Balance C/Fwd. Equals 4.6 % ROI
 
TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY

3.15 Asc (3) Cape of Good Hope 9/2, 5.0 Asc (2) Motafaawit 14/1 and 5.35 Asc (1) Constantinople = £2 staked and possible return of £324.50

Cape of Good Hope is another Aiden O’Brien runner with solid credentials.

Motafaawit looks as though it will run a big race but the market doesn’t seem to like it.

Constantinople should be the class act in this race.

I haven’t had time to sort out a £1 Trixie today.

I have decided that from now on I will place a win bet if the 1st and 2nd leg loses on the 3rd leg. I will also do this if the 1st leg loses and the second leg wins. However, the stake should only be one point to cover the cost of the Trixie only. Hence, for a £2 Trixie this would be £0.50 and for a £1 Trixie £1. Hence the total stake will be 5 points.

I have the same problem I had on Wednesday for tomorrow as I got stuck in traffic on the way to my destination and had to turn back, so having another crack tomorrow.

Be back on Saturday.
Good luck to all
TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE
No bets yesterday so the balance is the same.
Original Bank £500 add £17.19 = £517.19 Balance C/Fwd. Equals 3.4 % ROI
 
Frankie Detorri is having a wonderful day at Ascot. Best of luck to him. I am trying to lay Turgenev at 4.9 for £2.10 to recoup my Trixie bet. Unmatched at 5.5 yet but I think I will get the price matched. Come on Frankie, I can swallow an £8 loss but hey I would like to get my £2 back
 
Well, Frankie tried hard and I was scared as he seemed to be getting there, however, I have got my £2 returned for my Trixie and I don’t need to invest on Constantinople in the last race.
Risky, I know but what the hell
 
TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY

3.05 Asc Space Blues 5/2, 3.40 Asc Defoe 3/1 , 5.35 Asc Cleonte 4/1. + £4 staked with a potential return of £121.48

Reasons for selections:

Space Blues; I have checked out the main live contenders against him and can see no reason why he shouldn’t run a big race.

Defoe; Has been running extremely well and I prefer to back a horse with good current form rather than rely on Masar who has been off the track for over a year despite Charlie Appleby’s big reputation for getting horses ready after a break.

Cleonte; is a course winner and is expected to run well at the distance; the only negative for me is that Silvestre De Sousa doesn’t have a good strike rate at Ascot.

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

21/6/19 No Trixie bet so balance remains the same.

Original Bank £500 add £15.19 = £515.19 Balance C/Fwd. Equals 3.0 % ROI
 
TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY

2.30 Sou (5) Wolf Catcher 6/1, 3.35 (9) Global Tour 5/1 and 4.10 (7) Mister Universum 4/1 = £4 staked with a potential return of £317.

Reasons for selections

Wolf Catcher ran well behind Western Miller last time and the market seems to favour the latter coming out on top this time. Fortunes Hiding has a lot of weight to carry.

Global Tour is in a very open competitive race but gas been in excellent form.

Mister Universum is a Skelton horse that I think will be very competitive. I disagree with the RP when it states that 2.4f will stretch him.

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

That was my closest to a Trixie since Broome let me down by ¾ of a length in the Derby. Space Blues beaten a head so just a double for me today. Great to see horses running up to expectations! The return was £20 less £4 stake so a net of £16.00

Original Bank £500 add £16 +£15.19 = £531.19 Balance C/Fwd. Equals 6.2.0 % ROI

The sequence of bets are as follows; I have muddied the waters a bit by some Trixies being placed at half my usual total stake of £4 being £2, however, these are the recorded results so far since 27th May 19.

LLLLLDLLLLLLLLLLDLLLLLLLLD

During this time the bank did drop to £457.19 at its lowest level.
 
TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY

No Trixie today; I just haven’t made the time to work one out. Sorry.

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

Two seconds and a non-runner so no winnings today. I made an error with my back/lay bet on the 3rd leg which meant that I lost £1.84 on the day instead of getting out at B/E. Never mind I have it all worked out for future Trixies. I know that these figures don’t go on the books but they are important to me.

Original Bank £500 +£27.19 = £527.19 Balance C/Fwd. Equals 5.40 % ROI
 
TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY

2.15 Bri (1) Shamson 4/1, 8.45 Newb ((7) Rose Hip 4/1, 9.00 N. Abb (5) Glanvilles Guest 7/2

Reasons for selections:

Shamson ran badly last time (I always forgive one previous poor run but not two or more) but it is a class 4 CD winner and won on good to soft and has a jockey aboard that rides well at the track. The favourite is up 5lbs and is only a Class 5 winner

The market favours Raincall over Rose Hip but I feel that Rosehip’s form is better, we’ll see?

Glanvilles Guest is a strong market favourite to win. The pundits are pushing Prophets Prayer 3rd to my selection last time but the market is not supporting that view.

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

No bet yesterday so the bank remains unchanged

Original Bank £500 +£27.19 = £527.19 Balance C/Fwd. Equals 5.40 % ROI
 
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