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Daily Racing Insight

Haydock

I’m hoping to do better on Saturday where Bristol De Mai goes to Haydock seeking a third Betfair Chase win. It’s a tricky race on the face of it, but I believe the going and the track will be the deciding factors. Lostintranslation deprived Bristol De Mai of his hat trick last year in this, but I thought the Tizzard horse was running out of gas late on. I believe he also failed to stay in the Gold Cup. And I’m not convinced he’s at his best on really soft ground either. He has won on it over 3m1f at Aintree. But Haydock soft is quite a bit more tiring than Aintree soft.

Dual King George winner Clan Des Obeaux handles soft fine, but has has not won left handed for 3 years. Nicholls says he’s training well and he’s a different horse this year. He will have to be to win this going the wrong way round.

In February Bellshill ran his best race for some time, but his 3 top Racing Post Ratings feature one on yielding and two on good. He’s 10 now, and even in his heyday this would have been a huge challenge. This is his first run for Sandy Thomson after leaving Mullins. Sandy is a fine trainer, but even he surely cannot pull this off.

Keeper Hill is out of his depth, but there is £4,250 for last place. He’s a horse who can still win a good handicap, I think.

In the 12.40 at Haydock Sam’s Adventure looks a fair bit too big at around 16/1. The ground will be fine and this is just his 7th chase. He disappointed last time on seasonal debut, but that was at Carlisle, a right handed track, whereas this horse’s best form by a country mile is left handed. I’m hoping he can give Danny Cook a boost on his return from injury.

In the 1.15 I’d advise two bets: Commanche Red and Goodboy Bobby. The latter is highly consistent and has been keeping very good company. Nigel Twiston-Davies must think a fair. bit of him to restrict him, at 7, to just five steeplechases.

Commanche Red pulled up last time, but is another who has been consistent in general, and cheekpieces go on today for the first time. His best performance was in beating Simply The Betts 9 lengths. Albeit that good horse had one of his poor jumping rounds. And it was at Kempton, right handed, the tracks Commanche Red has done best on. This gives me a wee bit of pause for thought, but if he fails here, I doubt it will be down to the left handed configuration.

In the 1.50 Le Ligerien is priced at 22/1 as I write (Friday night); most unusual for a Hobbs - Johnson horse who is just 7 and has won 2 of his last 4. He ran well enough to be 3rd on good ground at Chepstow last time (seasonal debut), but three of his top four Racing Post Ratings are in heavy, heavy, soft. Betfair currently offer five places at 22/1 – worth an EW bet.

Third Wind could well win the 2.25. At first I was interested in Collooney, and I’ll have a saver on him just in case Jonjo's been jocked off Collooney for Aidan Coleman. Collooney won well last time under a cool ride from Jonjo, but Coleman has ridden the horse before, and Collooney belongs to JP McManus, a man Coleman seems to be getting more rides for lately (he’s been booked to ride JP’s Champion Hurdler Epatante for the season).

So, there’s a good chance that Jonjo wasn’t offered the ride in this. If he was then he has got off it for Third Wind trained by Hughie Morrison, much better known as a Flat trainer. Jonjo’s had just one previous mount for Morrison, Maridadi at Wetherby in January; it won at 5/2. I’d like to back just Third Wind here, but a saver on Collooney could get us out of trouble.

3.35 Midnight Tune looks the one in this last at Haydock. In six runs last season she was pulled up twice. In the others she finished 2111. This is her first run after a wind op and at around 6/1 I’d back her win only.

Ascot

2.40 A fascinating wee race with Call Me Lord and Laurina vying for favouritism, and I think the outsider – though at around 5/2 not by much – will go very close. Call Me Lord is known for having his best form going this way round - right handed. On that basis alone, he might start favourite. But for me he’s more a Sandown specialist than a right handed one. Top 3 Racing Post Ratings were at Sandown, and he’s been beaten in both runs at Ascot.

The outsider Song For Someone came with a sustained run at Kempton last time to land the spoils after trading at around 500/1 in running. Going back up in trip here will suit this admirable chestnut who is only 5 and has quite a bit of improvement to come.

Ex Mullins mare Laurina is one I’ve never backed, but I simply have to tomorrow where she has two, possibly three factors strongly in her favour. The first is her chance at the weights here. The conditions of the race put her hugely well in. Racing Post Ratings have her 9lbs clear of Call Me Lord and 17lbs clear of Song For Someone. Next is her record over hurdles before going fencing: F2/1111/114. That 4th was to the freakish but ill-fated Espoir D’Allen in last year’s Champion Hurdle .

Sent chasing, her formline went to pot, but back over hurdles in February she showed signs of enjoying it again, though faded late. That brings us to (potential) asset number three – she had a wind op in June after joining Paul Nicholls for whom this is her debut. If it works first time, she should finish her race off much better than she sometimes has.

3.17 Final bet at Ascot is Drumconnor Lad who is 10, but running the best races of his career over fences, where he’s run up, in order, Racing Post Ratings of 129:134:140:143:150.

He returned over hurdles this season having finished last season on a winning note. He was 9th on that first run back but showed the benefit next time when winning a chase at Ayr – that was his 150 rating, indicating he’s back even better than he was. There might well be more improvement to come.

In summary with guide prices:

Ascot

2.40 Laurina 6/4 Nap

3.17 Drumconnor Lad 7/1

Haydock

12.40 Sam’s Adventure 16/1

1.15 Commanche Red 6/1 Goodboy Bobby 3/1

1.50 Le Ligerien 20/1

2.25 Third Wind7/1 Collooney 8/1

3.00 Bristol De Mai 3/1

3.35 Midnight Tune 6/1

Good luck. Go easy with your stakes! These are for fun bets to add to your enjoyment when watching the racing.
 
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Great Post Steeplechasing Steeplechasing .
Ascot 3.17 Class 2 Handicap.
In these races I tend to follow my trends and have 4 qualifiers in Magic Saint, First Flow, Abbey Magic and Amoola Gold.
MS has a lot to do here for me up 7 in the handicap (plus 2 for jocks claim) 6lb in the avg OR of race and 3 lb actual weight to carry.
FF is an interesting improving novice having his first run of the season but is best watched at the price and he probably wants softer.
AM is another improver moving up in class but may be better on a sound surface and is also tight price wise.
AG is the one I am going for EW having got 8/1 he looks the value, is improving and has a CD win on soft to his name.
Good luck to all having a go today.
 
Has the "Million" bonus been scrapped ? I have tried google but still can't figure.

Field size is always poor, especially this event were a couple will surely be told "stay on your feet"
 
Well, one winner in the brilliant grey. Oh how I wish they'd put him away until March. I went so far as to message Simon Munir on twitter, pleading for him to do so.

I guess Laurina must have bled, and today will be my last as well as my first bet on her. I felt for young Kevin Brogan on Drumconnor Lad who never went a yard. The boy is very good and worth noting.

Main Fact: what can you say? Remarkable horse, though I wish they'd kept him for something else! Decent runs from one or two others. Roll on next weekend.

Thanks for all comments

Joe
 
doomster said:
Has the "Million" bonus been scrapped ? I have tried google but still can't figure.

Field size is always poor, especially this event were a couple will surely be told "stay on your feet"
Click to expand...
I believe it has. Caused a few to run in the KG who should have been in their box, like Lostintranslation last year and Bristol De Mai in previous years.
 
I am working through the 3.00 at Newbury tomorrow, and will put up my analysis later. But standout value in Honest Vic is worth taking now. Skybet, who go 4 places, have cut him form 16/1 to 11/1 in the past hour. Most of the others are 14/1 at best, but Bet365 offer 20/1 to three places. That is top value
 
Following up my earlier Honest Vic post (20s has gone to 16s), with some workings on this race.

On the face of it, it’s competitive and quite open. McFabulous really impressed me last time and I backed and tipped him for the Stayers in March. Still, he’s hellish short tomorrow. But he is one who will go on good ground, and the only others to appreciate it for certain are Honest Vic and Aux Ptits Soins. All three have registered their best Racing Post Rating on good ground.

Of the others, including Paisley Park, Lisnagar Oscar, Thyme Hill (2 worst performances were on good) and Summerville Boy, whose first outing this will be on good ground (top rating is on good to soft) we cannot be sure they’ll be at their best. On the formbook, the above, a fair slice of the market, ought to be disadvantaged by the ground, although nothing is sure. I’ve watched plenty of horses win then heard the trainer say, ‘Oh, I was convinced he needed – (fill in your going)’

Summerville Boy for example would be one who might well relish good ground, but I don’t think this is his trip. He’s a fine horse who just doesn’t see out 3 miles in top company imo.

Paisley Park had heart problems when disappointing in the Stayers Hurdle in March. He’s reported to be well now, but you can never tell what racing conditions will bring out. Lisnagar Oscar, another I tipped and backed in the Stayers 2021, ran well enough last time when he reportedly needed the race, but the evidence on him strongly suggests soft ground is what he wants. He won on good ground last year, but ran exactly a stone better on soft in March.

Honest Vic shares McFabulous’s profile as an improver, though we have much more data on Honest Vic, whose ratings have seen a slow but steady improvement curve for the last two years. There was no sudden jump in them until last December when he won at Kempton, improving on his previous best by 6lbs. He reproduced that rating when 5th in the Pertemps at the Festival, beaten six lengths. But on his seasonal reappearance he blew all his previous runs away with a Racing Post Rating of 154 – 15lbs better than anything he’d done.

So, where did that improvement come from? Well, his profile was that of a slow burner, and you could have expected it to continue, but for one thing: he went up in trip to 3 miles; his first run at that, and it could well be that this is the key to him (am slightly cautious in that he runs well fresh, and it was his first outing of the season).

He won that day with great enthusiasm, another thing I love to see in an improving horse. His yard is not that well known, Henry Daly, and that will go quite a way in ‘fooling’ the odds compilers. Daly is not in shining form, but is getting better. His strike rate for the last 14 days is nine percent, but for the past seven days it is 17%.

Honest Vic has so much going for him compared to his rivals, I rate him the best value bet of the season so far, at any double figure odds. I fear McFabulous on the win side, but unless Vic has an off day, he’ll be very difficult to keep out of the first three.

As well as backing him tomorrow, you ought to take the 66/1 about him for the 2021 Stayers Hurdle. He could be 50 points shorter tomorrow.

Warning: you’ll have guessed I am very keen on this value bet, all the more need to stress that you should never bet more than you can afford. My tips are for people who treat betting as a leisure activity and are sometimes willing to spend a fiver on something other than a cup of coffee in London.
 
Great Post Steeplechasing Steeplechasing .
My trend race (I focus on chasers) is the 2.25 at Newbury for which I have no less than 5 Qualifiers - Sully Doc, Clondaw Castle, Gala Ball, Fidux and Musical Slave.Now I don't fancy any of these :- Sully is well up in class with a 10lb hike in OR so a pass at the price. I think Clondaw barely lasts home at the distance on an open galloping track, With Fidux I think the distance is wrong and class of horse too much, and both Gala Ball and Musical Slave have too much to do 1st time up and on going that doesn't suit.
Having looked at almost half the runners I thought I would look at the rest. My trend does fall short against seasoned chasers (Oldgrangewood last year who could be thereabouts again this year) and the 2 against the field at decent prices are Whatswrongwithyou and San Benedeto. The former is falling to a decent mark,will race up with the pace (I hope he makes it) and has ran well in this type of race before and the latter's best race is arguably his CD win in similar class off this mark. So 2 against the field (and my trend!) for me.
 
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