Daily Racing Insight
- Thread starter mlmrob
- Start date
markfinn
Sire
Ran well enough to grab a tired second - take nothing away from the winner won really well - course looked really well considering the weather we have had
markfinn
Sire
well done - in very difficult race to evaluate
mjay
Gelding
A few more trainer/track pointers. The strike rates were attained using a maximum Industry Starting Price (ISP) stipulation which I have marked.
Above this the ROI and strike rate may decline markedly and caution advised.
2.10 Wincanton - Deer Hunter isp 3.5 - unsteady market and nearing this point, strike rate drops markedly above this
4.03 Tramore Axiomatic - no isp limit although caution as jumps debut
4.11 Carlisle No Risk des flos isp 3.5 caution as bumper debutant
5.45 Southwell - Jebel Dukhan isp 3.5 - caution it's Prescott in a non-handicap...
Above this the ROI and strike rate may decline markedly and caution advised.
2.10 Wincanton - Deer Hunter isp 3.5 - unsteady market and nearing this point, strike rate drops markedly above this
4.03 Tramore Axiomatic - no isp limit although caution as jumps debut
4.11 Carlisle No Risk des flos isp 3.5 caution as bumper debutant
5.45 Southwell - Jebel Dukhan isp 3.5 - caution it's Prescott in a non-handicap...
mlmrob
Sire
CATTERICK DASH 3.45 CATTERICK
Two trends have stood out in this race. Both are to do with the official rating and physical weight. There have been 16 renewals.
14-16 WINNERS RAN OFF A MARK BETWEEN +2 AND -2 FROM THEIR LAST RACE.
Those outside that range are 2-58 and you have to go back to 2010 to find the last winner.
14-16 WINNERS CARRIED BETWEEN 3LBS AND 12LBS LESS PHYSICAL WEIGHT THAN THE TOP WEIGHT.
Those outside that range are 2-85 and the last winner was in 2013.
Combining both trends has resulted in finding 13 of the 16 winners from 98 selections. Since the race was upgraded to its current standard in 2012 these trends have found seven of the last eight winners including the last six with a profit achieved of 26 points.
Lord Riddiford and Justanotherbottle are the two qualifiers this year.
Im not sure if Lord Riddiford benefitted from the draw last Saturday when fourth at York as five of the first seven home were drawn 13 or higher. Whichever way you look at it it was a cracking prep run for this and the handicapper has dropped him 1lb so he is now back on his last winning mark. His record off marks less than 90 reads 5-9 and at 10/1 or less that improves to 1111261. The sixth was at Southwell which he didn't handle the track.
Justanotherbottle has been struggling this season as he has been too high in the weights. He was third to the ill fated National Anthem and Wentworth Falls at Ayr and both horses subsequently won franking the form. He is yet to place in three races on soft or heavy. He did finish third in a Nursery at Catterick but all six of his wins have come on straight tracks. He is 0-18 with just four places when the penalty value is above 13k and he is passed over.
Musicka is 0-6 with one place in the race after a win. he is 0-25off marks of 89 or higher though he has placed seven times.
Broken Spear hasn't won for two years but his consistency means he is on his highest mark of 2020. He is 1-17 in handicaps and his record off marks of 80+ reads 0-16 with five places. However, one of those places was in this last year off 86.
Count Dorsay is 8lbs higher than when he won this last year. He is 0-7 off marks above 91 though he has two places to his name. He was beaten half a length off 96 a couple of runs back which suggests he has to find a length improvement to take this. He could well do that but the booking of Graham Lee doesn't inspire as he is 0-28 with just four places for Tim Easterby. Lee is 7-84 over 5f at Catterick and on the six occasions he has been on the widest drawn horse he has finished unplaced.
Rayong is yet to place in four races on good to soft or soft and encounters heavy for the first time. It might not be a problem as he is by Mayson but he is still 4lbs higher than his win in the summer. He will run his race.
Dark Shot is 0-4 when he has turn left and he is 0-32 when the penalty value exceeds 10k.
Copper Knight has unplaced twicee both times he has encountered heavy ground. However, 7 of his 8 wins have come on flat tracks and he is 0-6 with one place on an undulating track.
Militia won three in a row in the summer and the handicapper is in charge now judging by his last three races. He is 0-9 with just two places when carrying 9-1 or less and is yet to place in four races at 0-95 or better.
Terentum Star pops up now and again and is well handicapped on his overall form. However, he is yet to get within 5ls of a winner this summer and looks on the downgrade.
Conclusion: John Quinns horses are running out of their skin at the minute and Lord Riddiford looks to have the perfect profile. Only one horse has won this from off the pace in recent years so it is going to pay to be prominent. Normally I would have dismissed him on the ground but he handled soft really well at York last week and Lord Riddiford looks solid in a field full of runners with doubts hanging over them.
Two trends have stood out in this race. Both are to do with the official rating and physical weight. There have been 16 renewals.
14-16 WINNERS RAN OFF A MARK BETWEEN +2 AND -2 FROM THEIR LAST RACE.
Those outside that range are 2-58 and you have to go back to 2010 to find the last winner.
14-16 WINNERS CARRIED BETWEEN 3LBS AND 12LBS LESS PHYSICAL WEIGHT THAN THE TOP WEIGHT.
Those outside that range are 2-85 and the last winner was in 2013.
Combining both trends has resulted in finding 13 of the 16 winners from 98 selections. Since the race was upgraded to its current standard in 2012 these trends have found seven of the last eight winners including the last six with a profit achieved of 26 points.
Lord Riddiford and Justanotherbottle are the two qualifiers this year.
Im not sure if Lord Riddiford benefitted from the draw last Saturday when fourth at York as five of the first seven home were drawn 13 or higher. Whichever way you look at it it was a cracking prep run for this and the handicapper has dropped him 1lb so he is now back on his last winning mark. His record off marks less than 90 reads 5-9 and at 10/1 or less that improves to 1111261. The sixth was at Southwell which he didn't handle the track.
Justanotherbottle has been struggling this season as he has been too high in the weights. He was third to the ill fated National Anthem and Wentworth Falls at Ayr and both horses subsequently won franking the form. He is yet to place in three races on soft or heavy. He did finish third in a Nursery at Catterick but all six of his wins have come on straight tracks. He is 0-18 with just four places when the penalty value is above 13k and he is passed over.
Musicka is 0-6 with one place in the race after a win. he is 0-25off marks of 89 or higher though he has placed seven times.
Broken Spear hasn't won for two years but his consistency means he is on his highest mark of 2020. He is 1-17 in handicaps and his record off marks of 80+ reads 0-16 with five places. However, one of those places was in this last year off 86.
Count Dorsay is 8lbs higher than when he won this last year. He is 0-7 off marks above 91 though he has two places to his name. He was beaten half a length off 96 a couple of runs back which suggests he has to find a length improvement to take this. He could well do that but the booking of Graham Lee doesn't inspire as he is 0-28 with just four places for Tim Easterby. Lee is 7-84 over 5f at Catterick and on the six occasions he has been on the widest drawn horse he has finished unplaced.
Rayong is yet to place in four races on good to soft or soft and encounters heavy for the first time. It might not be a problem as he is by Mayson but he is still 4lbs higher than his win in the summer. He will run his race.
Dark Shot is 0-4 when he has turn left and he is 0-32 when the penalty value exceeds 10k.
Copper Knight has unplaced twicee both times he has encountered heavy ground. However, 7 of his 8 wins have come on flat tracks and he is 0-6 with one place on an undulating track.
Militia won three in a row in the summer and the handicapper is in charge now judging by his last three races. He is 0-9 with just two places when carrying 9-1 or less and is yet to place in four races at 0-95 or better.
Terentum Star pops up now and again and is well handicapped on his overall form. However, he is yet to get within 5ls of a winner this summer and looks on the downgrade.
Conclusion: John Quinns horses are running out of their skin at the minute and Lord Riddiford looks to have the perfect profile. Only one horse has won this from off the pace in recent years so it is going to pay to be prominent. Normally I would have dismissed him on the ground but he handled soft really well at York last week and Lord Riddiford looks solid in a field full of runners with doubts hanging over them.
Steeplechasing
Filly
Stradivarius is a horse I’ve never got right and I’m running a net loss on – bear that in mind when I say I cannot see him beaten today. Many, including the bookies, seem to have taken his last two defeats at face value and priced him at odds against. In my reality he might as well have stayed at home for those last two events.
In his Arc ‘prep’, the Prix Foy, they went no pace and he ended up losing out in a two furlong sprint. In The Arc he ended up in another sprint in heavy ground, his jockey inexplicably having chosen to sit behind a funereal pace for 80% of the race. To still hope to win after that is like having a boxing strategy against Mike Tyson of allowing him to punch you unhindered for 9 rounds with you coming back to knock him out in the 10th.
Stradivarius is the best stayer we have and he’s back at a staying trip. He ought to be 8/13 here and I have taken the 6/5. You should do the same.
With nothing approaching the same confidence I have backed Serpentine EW at 14s (Skybet, 4 places) for the Champion Stakes. I think he’d have gone really well in The Arc, so this might be on the short side, even in this ground. But his price is too high, and so is that of Pyledriver whose connections might, by happy accident, found exactly the right trip for him in this ground. But he had a really hard race at Doncaster and this could be a slog today. I’ve had a small saver win only anyway at 14s.
Good luck.
In his Arc ‘prep’, the Prix Foy, they went no pace and he ended up losing out in a two furlong sprint. In The Arc he ended up in another sprint in heavy ground, his jockey inexplicably having chosen to sit behind a funereal pace for 80% of the race. To still hope to win after that is like having a boxing strategy against Mike Tyson of allowing him to punch you unhindered for 9 rounds with you coming back to knock him out in the 10th.
Stradivarius is the best stayer we have and he’s back at a staying trip. He ought to be 8/13 here and I have taken the 6/5. You should do the same.
With nothing approaching the same confidence I have backed Serpentine EW at 14s (Skybet, 4 places) for the Champion Stakes. I think he’d have gone really well in The Arc, so this might be on the short side, even in this ground. But his price is too high, and so is that of Pyledriver whose connections might, by happy accident, found exactly the right trip for him in this ground. But he had a really hard race at Doncaster and this could be a slog today. I’ve had a small saver win only anyway at 14s.
Good luck.
Bold Gait
Mare
A very detailed write up
mlmrob and lots to back up your selection.
Copper Knight is the worry for me. It is really well handicapped judging on it's win last year and has won on soft ground. Easterby's other runner won this race last year, but is 8lbs worse off today. Is it improving enough to take this with top weight? Always a difficult decision to make when considering two runners from the same stable! CK was 4th in this race two years ago off 98 and today it is on 90.
Form wise it is difficult and not like how I like it to pan out. Haydock 26th september all three ran in the same race. Copper Knight finished ahead of Lord Riddiford in that one, BUT the going was not soft and The fav in todays race was second.
So, I would dutch the two proportionately as the odds are quite generous enough.
Lord Riddiford 5/1
Copper Knight 6/1
Of course what might happen now is that the Count comes in and gives us both a good slapping
mlmrob and lots to back up your selection.Copper Knight is the worry for me. It is really well handicapped judging on it's win last year and has won on soft ground. Easterby's other runner won this race last year, but is 8lbs worse off today. Is it improving enough to take this with top weight? Always a difficult decision to make when considering two runners from the same stable! CK was 4th in this race two years ago off 98 and today it is on 90.
Form wise it is difficult and not like how I like it to pan out. Haydock 26th september all three ran in the same race. Copper Knight finished ahead of Lord Riddiford in that one, BUT the going was not soft and The fav in todays race was second.
So, I would dutch the two proportionately as the odds are quite generous enough.
Lord Riddiford 5/1
Copper Knight 6/1
Of course what might happen now is that the Count comes in and gives us both a good slapping
doomster
Dam
Sorry for the after timing
Steeplechasing , but I'm going through the stress of watching the Liverpool Derby.
My son asked me for my advice as he had a free bet on the Stayers race, even though he only bets on football.
Even though I had no view on the race, I thougt Stradivarious was the obvious choice if recovered.
I did stress to him that the horse was 7/9 in G2's which is impressive enough, but the two losing races was todays race.
Steeplechasing , but I'm going through the stress of watching the Liverpool Derby.My son asked me for my advice as he had a free bet on the Stayers race, even though he only bets on football.
Even though I had no view on the race, I thougt Stradivarious was the obvious choice if recovered.
I did stress to him that the horse was 7/9 in G2's which is impressive enough, but the two losing races was todays race.
Steeplechasing
Filly
