ADDIS ABABA 4.50 AYR
Addis Ababa has performance figures between 85 and 89 in five of his last six races and is 3lbs well in today as he is due to go up to 88 on Saturday.
Six days ago, he run Scottish Summit to half a length and was terribly unlucky to bump into a horse running under his ideal conditions who had form figures 122122 under such. It was 3.5ls back to third. In his second last race Addis Ababa was third to Coolagh Forest in a 0-90 off 85. The winner was dropping two grades. But the performance that takes the eye is his second over 10.5f on soft ground at York in June where he recorded a performance figure of 89. Carrying 9-8 he failed by length to hold off Music Seeker and with the third, fourth, fifth, sixth and eighth all subsequently winning the form is rock solid.
Fannie By Gaslight is 1lb well in as she is due to go up to 76 from Saturday. She got 5lbs for this as the conditions of the race stated. Her record off marks above 70 reads 0-7 with three places and in one of those three places she recorded a performance figure of 79 albeit as a 3yo when third to Jedhi. She must improve to take this but that is possible.
Glasses Up only ever wins at Ayr and is 3-5 over 10f on good or quicker ground. He is yet to place in seven races over course and distance on good to soft or slower.
Employer has run over a variety of distances. He drops back to 10f today after running well over 13f the other day and his second to Stonific in March off 81 over 10f looks his best form of the season, performance figure of 81. Off a mark of 75 he has a chance, but he has struggled in both his races on soft and heavy. He couldn’t lift his feet out of the ground when fourth to Donnachies Girl on heavy earlier this summer in a 0-75 off 74.
Iron Mike couldn’t take advantage of the 7lbs WFA last time when second to Dreams And Visions over 13f and he got himself 4lbs for his efforts in that 0-70. He is massively up in grade and is yet to place in four races on good to soft or slower and yet to place in 7 races shorter than 12f.
Navigate By Stars looks like she has been bought to go hurdling and she has struggled in both her races on soft ground. She is also running off a mark in the 70s and she is yet to place in five races off marks that high.
Kilbarchan must have had a problem as this is her first race for almost a year. Mark Johnston’s record since 2016 with horses that have been off for 300 days+ reads 0-29 with just four places.
Athmad has dropped 15lbs in the weights this season which is unsurprising as he is a weak finisher and was rated far too high on what he had achieved. The handicapper has realised his mistake and his mark is dropping like a stone. Athmads fourth to Skyman in a 0-80 last time was his best performance of the season as his performance figures have seen him running at least 5lbs below his mark. That last performance rating was just 4lbs below his mark and with a another 2lbs drop from the handicapper he is getting close to winning again. Brian Meehan has sent the horse a long way to a track where he is 1-20.
Detachment only wins at Beverley and Pontefract and with two meetings in October at Pontefract, 7th and 21st, Detachment may well be getting ready for those meetings. He has unplaced in all three races on soft ground and with his mark now down to 73 he will have a choice of engagements at which he is 3-8.
Dancin Boy is 0-4 on good to soft or slower.
Flint Hill has never placed in six races beyond 7f.
Conclusion: Only a few will get into this and with Addis Ababa the only horse rated in the 80s in this 0-85, it does look a very good opportunity. He handles all the conditions and it will be run to suit as Kilbarchan is the only recognised front runner. Provided he doesn’t fall asleep in the stalls, cheekpieces look to have over relaxed him, he should be able to track the pace. He has clocked three speed figures in the 70s in his last five races compared to his rivals who have one between them. He won’t get a better chance of a win as he is due to go up to 88 this Saturday and will not be able to race at this level.
