4.00 Naas - Insignia Of Rank - 40/1 (Paddy Power 1⁄4 odds 2 places) 10 e/w
Will quote bookies prices when putting up a selection because it's the handiest way. I generally mix and match with bigger priced horses, win part on exchange and place part with bookies to cover the win stake, so will keep it simple here.
Looking for an Opening Flat Day upset with this one, it's the fittest horse in the race (on paper) having had an AW run 24 days ago, the rest haven't been seen out in 6 months and more. It handles Heavy and Soft ground and has won over the trip. It has won a Listed race (race today is listed).
It runs off 97 today which is 6lbs lower than its highest ever mark and 4 lbs lower than its highest ever winning mark. The trainer (Murphy, calling him dodgy is being nice) retains a 25% share in this one which as a 5 year old is unusal for him, he's a dual purpose trainer who likes to sell his seemingly useless jumps horses that have been beaten out of sight when running for him, only to come out straight away and win for new connections. This one is a dedicated flat horse just to be clear but you get my drift, trainer is as cute as they come. It's his only runner at the meeting.
This is the type of horse I look out for to have small interest bets on for the first few weeks at the start of the Flat in both Ireland and the UK.
There's only 7 runners which is not great and I couldn't believe it was 40/1 with PP (16/1 only on Betfair exchange, 33's on 365 and 25's with skybet) and was more amazed when I was able to get a tenner each way on at 40's considering their exchange price.
OBrien has the odds on favourite that was beaten over the trip, has never run on heavy or soft ground, Welds could be anything, the rest of the field are no slouches. In truth if I was having a serious bet, I wouldn't go anywhere near this race, but like I said earlier, this is my modus operandi for certain races at the start of the flat, usually if I back like this each year on bigger priced ones, I wouldn't be too far behind with these type bets and can end up a nice few bob ahead. No point in posting up normal everyday bets 100 or 200 at 6/4 etc. I get as much enjoyment from these bets.
3.30 Naas - The King Of kells - 10/1 (Skybet 1⁄4 odds 4 places) 10 e/w
Also this one today, will not give overblown write up, but along similar lines to above, good trainer (Mulvaney), running with its highest ever mark, though has carried higher physical weight to win, loves heavy and soft ground, fit, trip not ideal (7f today) 6f 6½f ideal. At 4 Places will be surprised if not placed.
Trainer has 2 in the race ( In From The Cold) both are owned by his father Larry, not much diff between them on paper, both priced at around 10/1, but prefer my selection on Ground and fitness plus stable jockey opts for mine (having won on both), stable tend to bet late on their horses if having a gamble so no indication as of now. A couple of euro saver on the second horse to cover the original stake seems sensible.
Good Luck To All Today