Quiet on here today so i thought i would put one of interest up for tomorrow.
Sat 8th Wolv 8.0 : Mr Top Hat @ 16/1
A 0-85 over 9.5 fur with 10 run. There are several reasons not to back this 5yo his all in S/r of 2-37 for starters and given this evenings ask perhaps a worst still 0-9 on the AW. But three of the latter were over this CD with two of those showing positive off my numbers, the best came Dec 2018 when bt a len in a 0-105 but while good to note i feel that working off this might be pushing my luck. His 4lto run in a 0-95 over CD better suits because despite being beaten 4 lens it can still be used as a relevant rating race and my numbers suggest a repeat of this could make him the winner here.
It is interesting to note what then happened because 3lto he was dropped in trip, 2lto the same plus raised in grade and 3lto (last Sat) really took the piddle as he was run over 6fur when his most recent win came at 10fur. These three Gaming runs have almost forced the BHA to drop his OR by a further 5lbs which in theory creates a positive chance at the weights in this race. He runs here off OR 80 his lowest ever mark in a hcap and my hope is that his trainer Mr Bloody Evans will be thinking likewise and contesting with serious intention.
The draw stats suggest he has lucked out being asked to exit from the 1 box but i note a recent winner 1-11 and also that Top has run well when receiving a prominent ride so this may not prevent. His 7 day turnout and late evening ask are not supported by the profile but likewise it shows no conclusive evidence against. I am not going to comment much on the trainer who imo is a Monkey but fair dues over the years he has done me a few good turns at larger prices. He sent out six winners last month and over the past 12 yrs Wolv has proved by far his most winsome track.
The rider engaged triggers additional problems because this 18yo has yet to win a race, and is currently 0-16. Eight of those rides did come at this course and four of them on this horse both of which should prove helpful. With a young 7lb claimer we expect his first win to come in an apprentice race or a class 6 but it still hurts to recall that this time last year i swerved what would have been an EP 33/1 winner for myself (Mr Scaramanga) because of the same circumstances and that was in a 7k 0-95 so it can be done.
Investigating all of those losing runs which included ten 2nds you could be kind by concluding he is not unreliable as such but rather a victim of his own consistency and being harshly treated by the Official Handicappers as a consequence. His problems in this respect commenced after winning a class 2 race in his first season and when starting to contest hcaps as a 3yo he was on several occasions penalized for losing which included a SH 2nd off OR 90 in a 0-95 at Newm. A 16k buy part-owned by his wife the trainer had him from the get-go and with 66k earned in total prize money he has paid his way.
Just to put the boot in the stable also run Scofflaw who with Jason Hart on top will be the market preference. This situation causes concern at any time and factoring in the Evans aspect even more so, but my conclusion is that if Tops was not running i would not be backing Scoff. While i accept that my pick might be on yet another gaming run with perhaps an early turf season soft ground race a plan the fact remains that there is a case of sorts to be made for him winning this 0-85 race, and at the current price which is better than expected I now feel able to play and pay to find out.
I had to grin when reading the Timeform conclusion " Needs a couple of these to falter " I would ask Halifax does this mean he will be 3rd even if they don't but concluded perhaps best not to know.
